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Limits to lichenometry
(2015)
Lichenometry is a straightforward and inexpensive method for dating Holocene rock surfaces. The rationale is that the diameter of the largest lichen scales with the age of the originally fresh rock surface that it colonised. The success of the method depends on finding the largest lichen diameters, a suitable lichen-growth model, and a robust calibration curve. Recent critique of the method motivates us to revisit the accuracy and uncertainties of lichenometry. Specifically, we test how well lichenometry is capable of resolving the ages of different lobes of large active rock glaciers in the Kyrgyz Tien Shan. We use a bootstrapped quantile regression to calibrate local growth curves of Xanthoria elegans, Aspicilia tianshanica, and Rhizocarpon geographicum, and report a nonlinear decrease in dating accuracy with increasing lichen diameter. A Bayesian type of an analysis of variance demonstrates that our calibration allows discriminating credibly between rock-glacier lobes of different ages despite the uncertainties tied to sample size and correctly identifying the largest lichen thalli. Our results also show that calibration error grows with lichen size, so that the separability of rock-glacier lobes of different ages decreases, while the tendency to assign coeval ages increases. The abundant young (<200 yr) specimen of fast-growing X elegans are in contrast with the fewer, slow-growing, but older (200-1500 yr) R. geographicum and A. tianshanica, and record either a regional reactivation of lobes in the past 200 years, or simply a censoring effect of lichen mortality during early phases of colonisation. The high variance of lichen sizes captures the activity of rock-glacier lobes, which is difficult to explain by regional climatic cooling or earthquake triggers alone. Therefore, we caution against inferring palaeoclimatic conditions from the topographic position of rock-glacier lobes. We conclude that lichenometry works better as a tool for establishing a relative, rather than an absolute, chronology of rock-glacier lobes in the northern Tien Shan. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Investigation of a right-laterally offset channel at the Miller's Field paleoseismic site yields a late Holocene slip rate of 26.2 +6.4/-4.3 mm/yr (1 sigma) for the main trace of the San Andreas fault at Parkfield, California. This is the first well-documented geologic slip rate between the Carrizo and creeping sections of the San Andreas fault. This rate is lower than Holocene measurements along the Carrizo Plain and rates implied by far-field geodetic measurements (similar to 35 mm/yr). However, the rate is consistent with historical slip rates, measured to the northwest, along the creeping section of the San Andreas fault (<30 mm/yr). The paleoseismic exposures at the Miller's Field site reveal a pervasive fabric of clay shear bands, oriented clockwise oblique to the San Andreas fault strike and extending into the uppermost stratigraphy. This fabric is consistent with dextral aseismic creep and observations of surface slip from the 28 September 2004 M6 Parkfield earthquake. Together, this slip rate and deformation fabric suggest that the historically observed San Andreas fault slip behavior along the Parkfield section has persisted for at least a millennium, and that significant slip is accommodated by structures in a zone beyond the main San Andreas fault trace.