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Romance and Irony
(2017)
The work done during the PhD studies has been focused on measurements of distribution functions of rotating galaxies using integral field spectroscopy observations.
Throughout the main body of research presented here we have been using CALIFA (Calar Alto Legacy Integral Field Area) survey stellar velocity fields to obtain robust measurements of circular velocities for rotating galaxies of all morphological types. A crucial part of the work was enabled by well-defined CALIFA sample selection criteria: it enabled reconstructing sample-independent distributions of galaxy properties.
In Chapter 2, we measure the distribution in absolute magnitude - circular velocity space for a well-defined sample of 199 rotating CALIFA galaxies using their stellar kinematics. Our aim in this analysis is to avoid subjective selection criteria and to take volume and large-scale structure factors into account. Using stellar velocity fields instead of gas emission line kinematics allows including rapidly rotating early type galaxies. Our initial sample contains 277 galaxies with available stellar velocity fields and growth curve r-band photometry. After rejecting 51 velocity fields that could not be modelled due to the low number of bins, foreground contamination or significant interaction we perform Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) modelling of the velocity fields, obtaining the rotation curve and kinematic parameters and their realistic uncertainties. We perform an extinction correction and calculate the circular velocity v_circ accounting for pressure support a given galaxy has. The resulting galaxy distribution on the M_r - v_circ plane is then modelled as a mixture of two distinct populations, allowing robust and reproducible rejection of outliers, a significant fraction of which are slow rotators. The selection effects are understood well enough that the incompleteness of the sample can be corrected and the 199 galaxies can be weighted by volume and large-scale structure factors enabling us to fit a volume-corrected Tully-Fisher relation (TFR). More importantly, we also provide the volume-corrected distribution of galaxies in the M_r - v_circ plane, which can be compared with cosmological simulations. The joint distribution of the luminosity and circular velocity space densities, representative over the range of -20 > M_r > -22 mag, can place more stringent constraints on the galaxy formation and evolution scenarios than linear TFR fit parameters or the luminosity function alone.
In Chapter 3, we measure one of the marginal distributions of the M_r - v_circ distribution: the circular velocity function of rotating galaxies. The velocity function is a fundamental observable statistic of the galaxy population, being of a similar importance as the luminosity function, but much more difficult to measure. We present the first directly measured circular velocity function that is representative between 60 < v_circ < 320 km s^-1 for galaxies of all morphological types at a given rotation velocity. For the low mass galaxy population 60 < v_circ < 170 km s^-1, we use the HIPASS velocity function. For the massive galaxy population 170 < v_circ < 320 km s^-1, we use stellar circular velocities from CALIFA. The CALIFA velocity function includes homogeneous velocity measurements of both late and early-type rotation-supported galaxies. It has the crucial advantage of not missing gas-poor massive ellipticals that HI surveys are blind to. We show that both velocity functions can be combined in a seamless manner, as their ranges of validity overlap. The resulting observed velocity function is compared to velocity functions derived from cosmological simulations of the z = 0 galaxy population. We find that dark matter-only simulations show a strong mismatch with the observed VF. Hydrodynamic Illustris simulations fare better, but still do not fully reproduce observations.
In Chapter 4, we present some other work done during the PhD studies, namely, a method that improves the precision of specific angular measurements by combining simultaneous Markov Chain Monte Carlo modelling of ionised gas 2D velocity fields and HI linewidths. To test the method we use a sample of 25 galaxies from the Sydney-AAO Multi-object Integral field (SAMI) survey that had matching ALFALFA HI linewidths. Such a method allows constraining the rotation curve both in the inner regions of a galaxy and in its outskirts, leading to increased precision of specific angular momentum measurements. It could be used to further constrain the observed relation between galaxy mass, specific angular momentum and morphology (Obreschkow & Glazebrook 2014).
Mathematical and computational methods are presented in the appendices.
Introduction: Carbohydrate (CHO) and fat are the main substrates to fuel prolonged endurance exercise, each having its oxidation patterns regulated by several factors such as intensity, duration and mode of the activity, dietary intake pattern, muscle glycogen concentrations, gender and training status. Exercising at intensities where fat oxidation rates are high has been shown to induce metabolic benefits in recreational and health-oriented sportsmen. The exercise intensity (Fatpeak) eliciting peak fat oxidation rates is therefore of particular interest when aiming to prescribe exercise for the purpose of fat oxidation and related metabolic effects. Although running and walking are feasible and popular among the target population, no reliable protocols are available to assess Fatpeak as well as its actual velocity (VPFO) during treadmill ergometry. Moreover, to date, it remains unclear how pre-exercise CHO availability modulates the oxidative regulation of substrates when exercise is conducted at the intensity where the individual anaerobic threshold (IAT) is located (VIAT). That is, a metabolic marker representing the upper border where constant load endurance exercise can be sustained, being commonly used to guide athletic training or in performance diagnostics. The research objectives of the current thesis were therefore, 1) to assess the reliability and day-to-day variability of VPFO and Fatpeak during treadmill ergometry running; 2) to assess the impact of high CHO (HC) vs. low CHO (LC) diets (where on the LC day a combination of low CHO diet and a glycogen depleting exercise was implemented) on the oxidative regulation of CHOs and fat while exercise is conducted at VIAT. Methods: Research objective 1: Sixteen recreational athletes (f=7, m=9; 25 ± 3 y; 1.76 ± 0.09 m; 68.3 ± 13.7 kg; 23.1 ± 2.9 kg/m²) performed 2 different running protocols on 3 different days with standardized nutrition the day before testing. At day 1, peak oxygen uptake (VO2peak) and the velocities at the aerobic threshold (VLT) and respiratory exchange ratio (RER) of 1.00 (VRER) were assessed. At days 2 and 3, subjects ran an identical submaximal incremental test (Fat-peak test) composed of a 10 min warm-up (70% VLT) followed by 5 stages of 6 min with equal increments (stage 1 = VLT, stage 5 = VRER). Breath-by-breath gas exchange data was measured continuously and used to determine fat oxidation rates. A third order polynomial function was used to identify VPFO and subsequently Fatpeak. The reproducibility and variability of variables was verified with an intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC), Pearson’s correlation coefficient, coefficient of variation (CV) and the mean differences (bias) ± 95% limits of agreement (LoA). Research objective 2: Sixteen recreational runners (m=8, f=8; 28 ± 3 y; 1.76 ± 0.09 m; 72 ± 13 kg; 23 ± 2 kg/m²) performed 3 different running protocols, each allocated on a different day. At day 1, a maximal stepwise incremental test was implemented to assess the IAT and VIAT. During days 2 and 3, participants ran a constant-pace bout (30 min) at VIAT that was combined with randomly assigned HC (7g/kg/d) or LC (3g/kg/d) diets for the 24 h before testing. Breath-by-breath gas exchange data was measured continuously and used to determine substrate oxidation. Dietary data and differences in substrate oxidation were analyzed with a paired t-test. A two-way ANOVA tested the diet X gender interaction (α = 0.05). Results: Research objective 1: ICC, Pearson’s correlation and CV for VPFO and Fatpeak were 0.98, 0.97, 5.0%; and 0.90, 0.81, 7.0%, respectively. Bias ± 95% LoA was -0.3 ± 0.9 km/h for VPFO and -2 ± 8% of VO2peak for Fatpeak. Research objective 2: Overall, the IAT and VIAT were 2.74 ± 0.39 mmol/l and 11.1 ± 1.4 km/h, respectively. CHO oxidation was 3.45 ± 0.08 and 2.90 ± 0.07 g/min during HC and LC bouts respectively (P < 0.05). Likewise, fat oxidation was 0.13 ± 0.03 and 0.36 ± 0.03 g/min (P < 0.05). Females had 14% (P < 0.05) and 12% (P > 0.05) greater fat oxidation compared to males during HC and LC bouts, respectively. Conclusions: Research objective 1: In summary, relative and absolute reliability indicators for VPFO and Fatpeak were found to be excellent. The observed LoA may now serve as a basis for future training prescriptions, although fat oxidation rates at prolonged exercise bouts at this intensity still need to be investigated. Research objective 2: Twenty-four hours of high CHO consumption results in concurrent higher CHO oxidation rates and overall utilization, whereas maintaining a low systemic CHO availability significantly increases the contribution of fat to the overall energy metabolism. The observed gender differences underline the necessity of individualized dietary planning before exerting at intensities associated with performance exercise. Ultimately, future research should establish how these findings can be extrapolated to training and competitive situations and with that provide trainers and nutritionists with improved data to derive training prescriptions.
The aim of this thesis is to develop approaches to automatically recognise the structure of argumentation in short monological texts. This amounts to identifying the central claim of the text, supporting premises, possible objections, and counter-objections to these objections, and connecting them correspondingly to a structure that adequately describes the argumentation presented in the text.
The first step towards such an automatic analysis of the structure of argumentation is to know how to represent it. We systematically review the literature on theories of discourse, as well as on theories of the structure of argumentation against a set of requirements and desiderata, and identify the theory of J. B. Freeman (1991, 2011) as a suitable candidate to represent argumentation structure. Based on this, a scheme is derived that is able to represent complex argumentative structures and can cope with various segmentation issues typically occurring in authentic text.
In order to empirically test our scheme for reliability of annotation, we conduct several annotation experiments, the most important of which assesses the agreement in reconstructing argumentation structure. The results show that expert annotators produce very reliable annotations, while the results of non-expert annotators highly depend on their training in and commitment to the task.
We then introduce the 'microtext' corpus, a collection of short argumentative texts. We report on the creation, translation, and annotation of it and provide a variety of statistics. It is the first parallel corpus (with a German and English version) annotated with argumentation structure, and -- thanks to the work of our colleagues -- also the first annotated according to multiple theories of (global) discourse structure.
The corpus is then used to develop and evaluate approaches to automatically predict argumentation structures in a series of six studies: The first two of them focus on learning local models for different aspects of argumentation structure. In the third study, we develop the main approach proposed in this thesis for predicting globally optimal argumentation structures: the 'evidence graph' model. This model is then systematically compared to other approaches in the fourth study, and achieves state-of-the-art results on the microtext corpus. The remaining two studies aim to demonstrate the versatility and elegance of the proposed approach by predicting argumentation structures of different granularity from text, and finally by using it to translate rhetorical structure representations into argumentation structures.
Direct anthropogenic influences on the Earth’s subsurface during drilling, extraction or injection activities, can affect land stability by causing subsidence, uplifts or lateral displacements. They can occur in localized as well as in uninhabited and inhabited regions. Thus the associated risks for humans, infrastructure, and environment must be minimized. To achieve this, appropriate surveillance methods must be found that can be used for simultaneous monitoring during such activities. Multi-temporal synthetic aperture radar interferometry (MT-InSAR) methods like the Persistent Scatterer Interferometry (PSI) and the Small BAseline Subsets (SBAS) have been developed as standard approaches for satellite-based surface displacement monitoring. With increasing spatial resolution and availability of SAR sensors in recent years, MT-InSAR can be valuable for the detection and mapping of even the smallest man-made displacements.
This doctoral thesis aims at investigating the capacities of the mentioned standard methods for this purpose, and comprises three main objectives against the backdrop of a user-friendly surveillance service:
(1) the spatial and temporal significance assessment against leveling, (2) the suitability evaluation of PSI and SBAS under different conditions, and (3) the analysis of the link between surface motion and subsurface processes.
Two prominent case studies on anthropogenic induced subsurface processes in Germany serve as the basis for this goal. The first is the distinct urban uplift with severe damages at Staufen im Breisgau that has been associated since 2007 with a failure to implement a shallow geothermal energy supply for an individual building. The second case study considers the pilot project of geological carbon dioxide (CO2) storage at Ketzin, and comprises borehole drilling and fluid injection of more than 67 kt CO2 between 2008 and 2013. Leveling surveys at Staufen and comprehensive background knowledge of the underground processes gained from different kinds of in-situ measurements at both locations deliver a suitable basis for this comparative study and the above stated objectives. The differences in location setting, i.e. urban versus rural site character, were intended to investigate the limitations in the applicability of PSI and SBAS.
For the MT-InSAR analysis, X-band images from the German TerraSAR-X and TanDEM-X satellites were acquired in the standard Stripmap mode with about 3 m spatial resolution in azimuth and range direction. Data acquisition lasted over a period of five years for Staufen (2008-2013), and four years for Ketzin (2009-2013). For the first approximation of the subsurface source, an inversion of the InSAR outcome in Staufen was applied. The modeled uplift based on complex hydromechanical simulations and a correlation analysis with bottomhole pressure data were used for comparison with MT-InSAR measurements at Ketzin.
In response to the defined objectives of this thesis, a higher level of detail can be achieved in mapping surface displacements without in-situ effort by using MT-InSAR in comparison to leveling (1). A clear delineation of the elliptical shaped uplift border and its magnitudes at different parts was possible at Staufen, with the exception of a vegetated area in the northwest. Vegetation coverage and the associated temporal signal decorrelation are the main limitations of MT-InSAR as clearly demonstrated at the Ketzin test site. They result in insufficient measurement point density and unwrapping issues. Therefore, spatial resolutions of one meter or better are recommended to achieve an adequate point density for local displacement analysis and to apply signal noise reduction. Leveling measurements can provide a complementary data source here, but require much effort pertaining to personnel even at the local scale. Horizontal motions could be identified at Staufen by only comparing the temporal evolution of the 1D line of sight (LOS) InSAR measurements with the available leveling data. An exception was the independent LOS decomposition using ascending and descending data sets for the period 2012-2013. The full 3D displacement field representation failed due to insufficient orbit-related, north-south sensitivity of the satellite-based measurements. By using the dense temporal mapping capabilities of the TerraSAR-X/TanDEM-X satellites after every 11 days, the temporal displacement evolution could be captured as good as that with leveling.
With respect to the tested methods and in the view of generality, SBAS should be preferred over PSI (2). SBAS delivered a higher point density, and was therefore less affected by phase unwrapping issues in both case studies. Linking surface motions with subsurface processes is possible when considering simplified geophysical models (3), but it still requires intensive research to gain a deep understanding.
3D geovisualization systems (3DGeoVSs) that use 3D geovirtual environments as a conceptual and technical framework are increasingly used for various applications. They facilitate obtaining insights from ubiquitous geodata by exploiting human abilities that other methods cannot provide. 3DGeoVSs are often complex and evolving systems required to be adaptable and to leverage distributed resources. Designing a 3DGeoVS based on service-oriented architectures, standards, and image-based representations (SSI) facilitates resource sharing and the agile and efficient construction and change of interoperable systems. In particular, exploiting image-based representations (IReps) of 3D views on geodata supports taking full advantage of the potential of such system designs by providing an efficient, decoupled, interoperable, and increasingly applied representation.
However, there is insufficient knowledge on how to build service-oriented, standards-based 3DGeoVSs that exploit IReps. This insufficiency is substantially due to technology and interoperability gaps between the geovisualization domain and further domains that such systems rely on.
This work presents a coherent framework of contributions that support designing the software architectures of targeted systems and exploiting IReps for providing, styling, and interacting with geodata. The contributions uniquely integrate existing concepts from multiple domains and novel contributions for identified limitations. The proposed software reference architecture (SRA) for 3DGeoVSs based on SSI facilitates designing concrete software architectures of such systems. The SRA describes the decomposition of 3DGeoVSs into a network of services and integrates the following contributions to facilitate exploiting IReps effectively and efficiently. The proposed generalized visualization pipeline model generalizes the prevalent visualization pipeline model and overcomes its expressiveness limitations with respect to transforming IReps. The proposed approach for image-based provisioning enables generating and supplying service consumers with image-based views (IViews). IViews act as first-class data entities in the communication between services and provide a suitable IRep and encoding of geodata. The proposed approach for image-based styling separates concerns of styling from image generation and enables styling geodata uniformly represented as IViews specified as algebraic compositions of high-level styling operators. The proposed approach for interactive image-based novel view generation enables generating new IViews from existing IViews in response to interactive manipulations of the viewing camera and includes an architectural pattern that generalizes common novel view generation. The proposed interactive assisting, constrained 3D navigation technique demonstrates how a navigation technique can be built that supports users in navigating multiscale virtual 3D city models, operates in 3DGeoVSs based on SSI as an application of the SRA, can exploit IReps, and can support collaborating services in exploiting IReps.
The validity of the contributions is supported by proof-of-concept prototype implementations and applications and effectiveness and efficiency studies including a user study. Results suggest that this work promises to support designing 3DGeoVSs based on SSI that are more effective and efficient and that can exploit IReps effectively and efficiently. This work presents a template software architecture and key building blocks for building novel IT solutions and applications for geodata, e.g., as components of spatial data infrastructures.
Extreme weather events like heatwaves and floods severely affect societies with impacts ranging from economic damages to losses in human lifes. Global warming caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is expected to increase their frequency and intensity, particularly in the warm season. Next to these thermodynamic changes, climate change might also impact the large scale atmospheric circulation.Such dynamic changes might additionally act on the occurence of extreme weather events, but involved mechanisms are often highly non-linear. Therefore, large uncertainty exists on the exact nature of these changes and the related risks to society. Particularly in the densely populated mid-latitudes weather patterns are governed by the large scale circulation like the jet-streams and storm tracks. Extreme weather in this region is often related to persistent weather systems associated with a strongly meandering jet-stream. Such meanders are called Rossby waves. Under specific conditions they can become slow moving, stretched around the entire hemisphere and generate simultaneaous heat- and rainfall extremes in far-away regions.
This thesis aims at enhancing the understanding of synoptic-scale, circumglobal Rossby waves and the associated risks of dynamical changes to society. More specific, the analyses investigate their relation to extreme weather, regions at risk, under which conditions they are generated, and the influence of anthropogenic climate change on those conditions now, in the past and in the future.
I find that circumglobal Rossby waves promoted simultaneous occuring weather extremes across the northern hemisphere in several recent summers. Further, I present evidence that they are often linked to quasiresonant-amplification of planetary waves. These events include the 2003 European heatwave and the Moscow heatwave of 2010. This non-linear mechanism acts on the upper level flow through trapping and amplification of stationary synoptic scale waves. I show that this resonance mechanism acts in both hemispheres and is related to extreme weather. A main finding is that circumglobal Rossby waves primarily occur as two specific teleconnection patterns associated with a wave 5 and wave 7 pattern in the northern hemisphere, likely due to the favourable longitudinal distance of prominent mountain ridges here. Furthermore, I identify those regions which are particularly at risk: The central United States, western Europe and the Ukraine/Russian region. Moreover, I present evidence that the wave 7 pattern has and extreme weather in these regions. My results suggest that the increase in frequency can be linked to favourable changes in large scale temperature gradients, which I show to be largely underestimated by model simulations. Using surface temperature fingerprint as proxy for investigating historic and future model ensembles, evidence is presented that anthropogenic warming has likely increased the probability for the occurence of circumglobal Rossby waves. Further it is shown that this might lead to a doubling of such events until the end of the century under a high-emission scenario.
Overall, this thesis establishes several atmosphere-dynamical pathways by which changes in large scale temperature gradients might link to persistent boreal summer weather. It highlights the societal risks associated with the increasing occurence of a newly discovered Rossby wave teleconnection pattern, which has the potential to cause simultaneaous heat-extremes in the mid-latitudinal bread-basket regions. In addition, it provides further evidence that the traditional picture by which quasi-stationary Rossby waves occur only in the low wavenumber regime, should be reconsidered.
Modern welfare states aim at designing unemployment insurance (UI) schemes which minimize the length of unemployment spells. A variety of institutions and incentives, which are embedded in UI schemes across OECD countries, reflect this attempt. For instance, job seekers entering UI are often provided with personal support through a caseworker. They also face the requirement to regularly submit a minimum number of job applications, which is typically enforced through benefit cuts in the case of non-compliance. Moreover, job seekers may systematically receive information on their re-employment prospects. As a consequence, UI design has become a complex task. Policy makers need to define not only the amount and duration of benefit payments, but also several other choice parameters. These include the intensity and quality of personal support through caseworkers, the level of job search requirements, the strictness of enforcement, and the information provided to unemployed individuals. Causal estimates on how these parameters affect re-employment outcomes are thus central inputs to the design of modern UI systems: how much do individual caseworkers influence the transition out of unemployment? Does the requirement of an additional job application translate into increased job finding? Do individuals behave differently when facing a strict versus mild enforcement system? And how does information on re-employment prospects influence the job search decision? This dissertation proposes four novel research designs to answer this question. Chapters one to three elaborate quasi-experimental identification strategies, which are applied to large-scale administrative data from Switzerland. They, respectively, measure how personal interactions with caseworkers (chapter one), the level of job search requirements (chapter two) and the strictness of enforcement (chapter three) affect re-employment outcomes. Chapter four proposes a structural estimation approach, based on linked survey and administrative data from Germany. It studies how over-optimism on future wage offers affects the decision to search for work, and how the provision of information changes this decision.
Prevalence and Predictors of Sexual Aggression Victimization and Perpetration in Chile and Turkey
(2017)
Background: Although sexual aggression is recognized as a serious issue worldwide, the current knowledge base is primarily built on evidence from Western countries, particularly the U.S. For the present doctoral research, Chile and Turkey were selected based on theoretical considerations to examine the prevalence as well as predictors of sexual aggression victimization and perpetration. The first aim of this research project was to systematically review the available evidence provided by past studies on this topic within each country. The second aim was to empirically study the prevalence of experiencing and engaging in sexual aggression since the age of consent among college students in Chile and Turkey. The third aim was to conduct cross-cultural analyses examining pathways to victimization and perpetration based on a two-wave longitudinal design.
Methods: This research adopted a gender-inclusive approach by considering men and women in both victim and perpetrator roles. For the systematic reviews, multiple-stage literature searches were performed, and based on a predefined set of eligibility criteria, 28 studies in Chile and 56 studies in Turkey were identified for inclusion. A two-wave longitudinal study was conducted to examine the prevalence and predictors of sexual aggression among male and female college students in Chile and Turkey. Self-reports of victimization and perpetration were assessed with a Chilean Spanish or Turkish version of the Sexual Aggression and Victimization Scale. Two path models were conceptualized in which participants’ risky sexual scripts for consensual sex, risky sexual behavior, sexual self-esteem, sexual assertiveness, and religiosity were assessed at T1 and used as predictors of sexual aggression victimization and perpetration at T2 in the following 12 months, mediated through past victimization or perpetration, respectively. The models differed in that sexual assertiveness was expected to serve different functions for victimization (refusal assertiveness negatively linked to victimization) and perpetration (initiation assertiveness positively linked to perpetration).
Results: Both systematic reviews revealed that victimization was addressed by all included studies, but data on perpetration was severely limited. A great heterogeneity not only in victimization rates but also in predictors was found, which may be attributed to a lack of conceptual and methodological consistency across studies. The empirical analysis of the prevalence of sexual aggression in Chile revealed a victimization rate of 51.9% for women and 48.0% for men, and a perpetration rate of 26.8% for men and 16.5% for women. In the Turkish original data, victimization was reported by 77.6% of women and 65.5% of men, whereas, again, lower rates were found for perpetration, with 28.9% of men and 14.2% of women reporting at least one incident. The cross-cultural analyses showed, as expected, that risky sexual scripts informed risky sexual behavior, and thereby indirectly increased the likelihood of victimization and perpetration at T2 in both samples. More risky sexual scripts were also linked to lower levels of refusal assertiveness in both samples, indirectly increasing the vulnerability to victimization at T2. High sexual self-esteem decreased the probability of victimization at T2 through higher refusal assertiveness as well as through less risky sexual behavior also in both samples, whereas it increased the odds of perpetration at T2 via higher initiation assertiveness in the Turkish sample only. Furthermore, high religiosity decreased the odds of perpetration and victimization at T2 through less risky sexual scripts and less risky sexual behavior in both samples. It reduced the vulnerability to victimization through less risky sexual scripts and higher refusal assertiveness in the Chilean sample only. In the Turkish sample only, it increased the odds of perpetration and victimization through lower sexual self-esteem.
Conclusions: The findings showed that sexual aggression is a widespread problem in both Chile and Turkey, contributing cross-cultural evidence to the international knowledge base and indicating the clear need for implementing policy measures and prevention strategies in each country. Based on the results of the prospective analyses, concrete implications for intervention efforts are discussed.
This is a cumulative dissertation comprising three original studies (one published, one in revision, one submitted; Effective December 2017) investigating how reptile species in arid Australia respond to various climatic parameters at different spatial scales and analysing the two potential main underlying mechanisms: thermoregulatory behaviour and species interactions. This dissertation combines extensive individual-based field data across trophic levels, selected field experiments, statistical analyses, and predictive modelling techniques. Mechanisms and processes detected in this dissertation can now be used to predict potential future changes in the community of arid-zone lizards. This knowledge will help improving our fundamental understanding of the consequences of global change and thereby prevent biodiversity loss in a vulnerable ecosystem.
Trends in precipitation over Germany and the Rhine basin related to changes in weather patterns
(2017)
Precipitation as the central meteorological feature for agriculture, water security, and human well-being amongst others, has gained special attention ever since. Lack of precipitation may have devastating effects such as crop failure and water scarcity. Abundance of precipitation, on the other hand, may as well result in hazardous events such as flooding and again crop failure. Thus, great effort has been spent on tracking changes in precipitation and relating them to underlying processes. Particularly in the face of global warming and given the link between temperature and atmospheric water holding capacity, research is needed to understand the effect of climate change on precipitation.
The present work aims at understanding past changes in precipitation and other meteorological variables. Trends were detected for various time periods and related to associated changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation. The results derived in this thesis may be used as the foundation for attributing changes in floods to climate change. Assumptions needed for the downscaling of large-scale circulation model output to local climate stations are tested and verified here.
In a first step, changes in precipitation over Germany were detected, focussing not only on precipitation totals, but also on properties of the statistical distribution, transition probabilities as a measure for wet/dry spells, and extreme precipitation events.
Shifting the spatial focus to the Rhine catchment as one of the major water lifelines of Europe and the largest river basin in Germany, detected trends in precipitation and other meteorological variables were analysed in relation to states of an ``optimal'' weather pattern classification. The weather pattern classification was developed seeking the best skill in explaining the variance of local climate variables.
The last question addressed whether observed changes in local climate variables are attributable to changes in the frequency of weather patterns or rather to changes within the patterns itself. A common assumption for a downscaling approach using weather patterns and a stochastic weather generator is that climate change is expressed only as a changed occurrence of patterns with the pattern properties remaining constant. This assumption was validated and the ability of the latest generation of general circulation models to reproduce the weather patterns was evaluated.
% Paper 1
Precipitation changes in Germany in the period 1951-2006 can be summarised briefly as negative in summer and positive in all other seasons. Different precipitation characteristics confirm the trends in total precipitation: while winter mean and extreme precipitation have increased, wet spells tend to be longer as well (expressed as increased probability for a wet day followed by another wet day). For summer the opposite was observed: reduced total precipitation, supported by decreasing mean and extreme precipitation and reflected in an increasing length of dry spells.
Apart from this general summary for the whole of Germany, the spatial distribution within the country is much more differentiated. Increases in winter precipitation are most pronounced in the north-west and south-east of Germany, while precipitation increases are highest in the west for spring and in the south for autumn. Decreasing summer precipitation was observed in most regions of Germany, with particular focus on the south and west.
The seasonal picture, however, was again differently represented in the contributing months, e.g.\ increasing autumn precipitation in the south of Germany is formed by strong trends in the south-west in October and in the south-east in November. These results emphasise the high spatial and temporal organisation of precipitation changes.
% Paper 2
The next step towards attributing precipitation trends to changes in large-scale atmospheric patterns was the derivation of a weather pattern classification that sufficiently stratifies the local climate variables under investigation. Focussing on temperature, radiation, and humidity in addition to precipitation, a classification based on mean sea level pressure, near-surface temperature, and specific humidity was found to have the best skill in explaining the variance of the local variables. A rather high number of 40 patterns was selected, allowing typical pressure patterns being assigned to specific seasons by the associated temperature patterns. While the skill in explaining precipitation variance is rather low, better skill was achieved for radiation and, of course, temperature.
Most of the recent GCMs from the CMIP5 ensemble were found to reproduce these weather patterns sufficiently well in terms of frequency, seasonality, and persistence.
% Paper 3
Finally, the weather patterns were analysed for trends in pattern frequency, seasonality, persistence, and trends in pattern-specific precipitation and temperature. To overcome uncertainties in trend detection resulting from the selected time period, all possible periods in 1901-2010 with a minimum length of 31 years were considered. Thus, the assumption of a constant link between patterns and local weather was tested rigorously. This assumption was found to hold true only partly. While changes in temperature are mainly attributable to changes in pattern frequency, for precipitation a substantial amount of change was detected within individual patterns.
Magnitude and even sign of trends depend highly on the selected time period. The frequency of certain patterns is related to the long-term variability of large-scale circulation modes.
Changes in precipitation were found to be heterogeneous not only in space, but also in time - statements on trends are only valid for the specific time period under investigation. While some part of the trends can be attributed to changes in the large-scale circulation, distinct changes were found within single weather patterns as well.
The results emphasise the need to analyse multiple periods for thorough trend detection wherever possible and add some note of caution to the application of downscaling approaches based on weather patterns, as they might misinterpret the effect of climate change due to neglecting within-type trends.
Steep mountain channels are an important component of the fluvial system. On geological timescales, they shape mountain belts and counteract tectonic uplift by erosion. Their channels are strongly coupled to hillslopes and they are often the main source of sediment transported downstream to low-gradient rivers and to alluvial fans, where commonly settlements in mountainous areas are located. Hence, mountain streams are the cause for one of the main natural hazards in these regions. Due to climate change and a pronounced populating of mountainous regions the attention given to this threat is even growing. Although quantitative studies on sediment transport have significantly advanced our knowledge on measuring and calibration techniques we still lack studies of the processes within mountain catchments. Studies examining the mechanisms of energy and mass exchange on small temporal and spatial scales in steep streams remain sparse in comparison to low-gradient alluvial channels.
In the beginning of this doctoral project, a vast amount of experience and knowledge of a steep stream in the Swiss Prealps had to be consolidated in order to shape the principal aim of this research effort. It became obvious, that observations from within the catchment are underrepresented in comparison to experiments performed at the catchment’s outlet measuring fluxes and the effects of the transported material. To counteract this imbalance, an examination of mass fluxes within the catchment on the process scale was intended. Hence, this thesis is heavily based on direct field observations, which are generally rare in these environments in quantity and quality. The first objective was to investigate the coupling of the channel with surrounding hillslopes, the major sources of sediment. This research, which involved the monitoring of the channel and adjacent hillslopes, revealed that alluvial channel steps play a key role in coupling of channel and hillslopes. The observations showed that hillslope stability is strongly associated with the step presence and an understanding of step morphology and stability is therefore crucial in understanding sediment mobilization. This finding refined the way we think about the sediment dynamics in steep channels and motivated continued research of the step dynamics. However, soon it became obvious that the technological basis for developing field tests and analyzing the high resolution geometry measured in the field was not available. Moreover, for many geometrical quantities in mountain channels definitions and a clear scientific standard was not available. For example, these streams are characterized by a high spatial variability of the channel banks, preventing straightforward calculations of the channel width without a defined reference. Thus, the second and inevitable part of this thesis became the development and evaluation of scientific tools in order to investigate the geometrical content of the study reach thoroughly. The developed framework allowed the derivation of various metrics of step and channel geometry which facilitated research on the a large data set of observations of channel steps. In the third part, innovative, physically-based metrics have been developed and compared to current knowledge on step formation, suggested in the literature. With this analyses it could be demonstrated that the formation of channel steps follow a wide range of hydraulic controls. Due to the wide range of tested parameters channel steps observed in a natural stream were attributed to different mechanisms of step formation, including those based on jamming and those based on key-stones. This study extended our knowledge on step formation in a steep stream and harmonized different, often time seen as competing, processes of step formation. This study was based on observations collected at one point in time. In the fourth part of this project, the findings of the snap-shot observations were extended in the temporal dimension and the derived concepts have been utilized to investigate reach-scale step patterns in response to large, exceptional flood events. The preliminary results of this work based on the long-term analyses of 7 years of long profile surveys showed that the previously observed channel-hillslope mechanism is the responsible for the short-term response of step formation.
The findings of the long-term analyses of step patterns drew a bow to the initial observations of a channel-hillslope system which allowed to join the dots in the dynamics of steep stream. Thus, in this thesis a broad approach has been chosen to gain insights into the complex system of steep mountain rivers. The effort includes in situ field observations (article I), the development of quantitative scientific tools (article II), the reach-scale analyses of step-pool morphology (article III) and its temporal evolution (article IV). With this work our view on the processes within the catchment has been advanced towards a better mechanistic understanding of these fluvial system relevant to improve applied scientific work.
With recent advances in the area of information extraction, automatically extracting structured information from a vast amount of unstructured textual data becomes an important task, which is infeasible for humans to capture all information manually. Named entities (e.g., persons, organizations, and locations), which are crucial components in texts, are usually the subjects of structured information from textual documents. Therefore, the task of named entity mining receives much attention. It consists of three major subtasks, which are named entity recognition, named entity linking, and relation extraction.
These three tasks build up an entire pipeline of a named entity mining system, where each of them has its challenges and can be employed for further applications. As a fundamental task in the natural language processing domain, studies on named entity recognition have a long history, and many existing approaches produce reliable results. The task is aiming to extract mentions of named entities in text and identify their types. Named entity linking recently received much attention with the development of knowledge bases that contain rich information about entities. The goal is to disambiguate mentions of named entities and to link them to the corresponding entries in a knowledge base. Relation extraction, as the final step of named entity mining, is a highly challenging task, which is to extract semantic relations between named entities, e.g., the ownership relation between two companies.
In this thesis, we review the state-of-the-art of named entity mining domain in detail, including valuable features, techniques, evaluation methodologies, and so on. Furthermore, we present two of our approaches that focus on the named entity linking and relation extraction tasks separately.
To solve the named entity linking task, we propose the entity linking technique, BEL, which operates on a textual range of relevant terms and aggregates decisions from an ensemble of simple classifiers. Each of the classifiers operates on a randomly sampled subset of the above range. In extensive experiments on hand-labeled and benchmark datasets, our approach outperformed state-of-the-art entity linking techniques, both in terms of quality and efficiency.
For the task of relation extraction, we focus on extracting a specific group of difficult relation types, business relations between companies. These relations can be used to gain valuable insight into the interactions between companies and perform complex analytics, such as predicting risk or valuating companies. Our semi-supervised strategy can extract business relations between companies based on only a few user-provided seed company pairs. By doing so, we also provide a solution for the problem of determining the direction of asymmetric relations, such as the ownership_of relation. We improve the reliability of the extraction process by using a holistic pattern identification method, which classifies the generated extraction patterns. Our experiments show that we can accurately and reliably extract new entity pairs occurring in the target relation by using as few as five labeled seed pairs.