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Despite its high-seismogenic potential, the details of the seismogenic processes of Zagros Simply Folded Belt (SFB) remains debated. Three large earthquakes (M-w 7.3, 5.9 and 6.3) struck in the Lurestan arc of the Zagros SFB in 2017 and 2018. The sequence was recorded by seismic stations at regional, and teleseismic distances. Coseismic surface displacements, measured by Sentinel-1A/B satellites, provide additional data and a unique opportunity to study these earthquakes in detail. Here, we complement previous studies of the coseismic slip distribution of the 12 November 2017 M-w 7.3 Ezgeleh earthquake by a detailed analysis of its aftershocks, and we analysed the rupture process of the two interrelated earthquakes (25 August 2018 M-w 5.9 Tazehabad and the 25 November 2018 M-w 6.3 Sarpol-e Zahab earthquakes). We model the surface displacements obtained from Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) measurements and seismic records. We conduct non-linear probabilistic optimizations based on joint InSAR and seismic data to obtain finite-fault rupture of these earthquakes. The Lurestan arc earthquakes were followed by a sustained aftershock activity, with 133 aftershocks exceeding M-n 4.0 until 30 December 2019. We rely on the permanent seismic networks of Iran and Iraq to relocate similar to 700 M-n 3 + events and estimate moment tensor solutions for 85 aftershocks down to M-w 4.0. The 2017 Ezgeleh earthquake has been considered to activate a low-angle (similar to 17 degrees) dextral-thrust fault at the depth of 10-20 km. However, most of its aftershocks have shallow centroid depths (8-12 km). The joint interpretation of finite source models, moment tensor and hypocentral location indicate that the 2018 Tazehabad and Sarpol-e Zahab earthquakes ruptured different strike-slip structures, providing evidence for the activation of the sinistral and dextral strike-slip faults, respectively. The deformation in the Lurestan arc is seismically accommodated by a complex fault system involving both thrust and strike-slip faults. Knowledge about the deformation characteristics is important for the understanding of crustal shortening, faulting and hazard and risk assessment in this region.
The release of greenhouse gases from the large organic carbon stock in permafrost deposits in the circumarctic regions may accelerate global warming upon thaw. The extent of this positive climate feedback is thought to be largely controlled by the microbial degradability of the organic matter preserved in these sediments. In addition, weathering and oxidation processes may release inorganic carbon preserved in permafrost sediments as CO2, which is generally not accounted for. We used C-13 and C-14 analysis and isotopic mass balances to differentiate and quantify organic and inorganic carbon released as CO2 in the field from an active retrogressive thaw slump of Pleistocene-age Yedoma and during a 1.5-years incubation experiment. The results reveal that the dominant source of the CO2 released from freshly thawed Yedoma exposed as thaw mound is Pleistocene-age organic matter (48-80%) and to a lesser extent modern organic substrate (3-34%). A significant portion of the CO2 originated from inorganic carbon in the Yedoma (17-26%). The mixing of young, active layer material with Yedoma at a site on the slump floor led to the preferential mineralization of this young organic carbon source. Admixtures of younger organic substrates in the Yedoma thaw mound were small and thus rapidly consumed as shown by lower contributions to the CO2 produced during few weeks of aerobic incubation at 4 degrees C corresponding to approximately one thaw season. Future CO2 fluxes from the freshly thawed Yedoma will contain higher proportions of ancient inorganic (22%) and organic carbon (61-78%) as suggested by the results at the end, after 1.5 years of incubation. The increasing contribution of inorganic carbon during the incubation is favored by the accumulation of organic acids from microbial organic matter degradation resulting in lower pH values and, in consequence, in inorganic carbon dissolution. Because part of the inorganic carbon pool is assumed to be of pedogenic origin, these emissions would ultimately not alter carbon budgets. The results of this study highlight the preferential degradation of younger organic substrates in freshly thawed Yedoma, if available, and a substantial release of CO2 from inorganic sources.
The 100 km wide Merida Andes extend from the Colombian/Venezuelan border to the Coastal Cordillera. The mountain chain and its associated major strike-slip fault systems in western Venezuela formed due to oblique convergence of the Caribbean with the South American Plates and the north-eastwards expulsion of the North Andean Block. Due to the limited knowledge of lithospheric structures related to the formation of the Merida Andes research projects have been developed to illuminate this zone with deep geophysical data. In this study, we present three-dimensional inversion of broadband magnetotelluric data, collected along a 240 km long profile crossing the Merida Andes and the Maracaibo and Barinas-Apure foreland basins. The distribution of the stations limits resolution of the model to off-profile features. Combining 3D inversion of synthetic data sets derived from 3D modelling with 3D inversion of measured data, we could derive a 10 to 15 km wide corridor with good lateral resolution to develop hypotheses about the origin of deep-reaching anomalies of high electrical conductivity. The Merida Andes appear generally as electrically resistive structures, separated by anomalies associated with the most important fault systems of the region, the Bocono and Valera faults. Sensitivity tests suggest that the Valera Fault reaches to depths of up to 12 km and the Bocono Fault to more than 35 km depth. Both structures are connected to a sizeable conductor located east of the profile at 12-15 km depth. We propose that the high conductivity associated with this off-profile conductor may be related to the detachment of the Trujillo Block. We also identified a conductive zone that correlates spatially with the location of a gravity low, possibly representing a SE tilt of the Maracaibo Triangular Block under the mountain chain to great depths (>30 km). The relevance of these tectonic blocks in our models at crustal depths seems to be consistent with proposed theories that describe the geodynamics of western Venezuela as dominated by floating blocks or orogens. Our results stress the importance of the Trujillo Block for the current tectonic evolution of western Venezuela and confirm the relevance of the Bocono Fault carrying deformation to the lower crust and upper mantle. The Barinas-Apure and the Maracaibo sedimentary basins are imaged as electrically conductive with depths of 4 to 5 km and 5 to 10 km, respectively. The Barinas-Apure basin is imaged as a simple 1D structure, in contrast to the Maracaibo Basin, where a series of conductive and resistive bodies could be related to active deformation causing the juxtaposition of older geological formations and younger basin sediments.
The Altiplano-Puna plateau, in Central Andes, is the second-largest continental plateau on Earth, extending between 22 degrees and 27 degrees S at an average altitude of 4400 m. The Puna plateau has been formed in consequence of the subduction of the oceanic Nazca Plate beneath the continental South American plate, which has an average crustal thickness of 50 km at this location. A large seismicity cluster, the Jujuy cluster, is observed at depth of 150-250 km beneath the central region of the Puna plateau. The cluster is seismically very active, with hundreds of earthquakes reported and a peak magnitude MW 6.6 on 25th August 2006. The cluster is situated in one of three band of intermediate-depth focus seismicity, which extend parallel to the trench roughly North to South. It has been hypothesized that the Jujuy cluster could be a seismic nest, a compact seismogenic region characterized by a high stationary activity relative to its surroundings. In this study, we collected more than 40 years of data from different catalogs and proof that the cluster meets the three conditions of a seismic nest. Compared to other known intermediate depth nests at Hindu Kush (Afganisthan) or Bucaramanga (Colombia), the Jujuy nest presents an outstanding seismicity rate, with more than 100 M4+ earthquakes per year. We additionally performed a detailed analysis of the rupture process of some of the largest earthquakes in the nest, by means of moment tensor inversion and directivity analysis. We focused on the time period 2017-2018, where the seismic monitoring was the most extended. Our results show that earthquakes in the nest take place within the eastward subducting oceanic plate, but rupture along sub-horizontal planes dipping westward. We suggest that seismicity at Jujuy nest is controlled by dehydration processes, which are also responsible for the generation of fluids ascending to the crust beneath the Puna volcanic region. We use the rupture plane and nest geometry to provide a constraint to maximal expected magnitude, which we estimate as MW -6.7.
Purpose:
Soil erosion by water yields sediment to surface reservoirs, reducing their storage capacities, changing their geometry, and degrading water quality. Sediment reuse, i.e., fertilization of agricultural soils with the nutrient-enriched sediment from reservoirs, has been proposed as a recovery strategy. However, the sediment needs to meet certain criteria. In this study, we characterize sediments from the densely dammed semiarid Northeast Brazil by VNIR-SWIR spectroscopy and assess the effect of spectral resolution and spatial scale on the accuracy of N, P, K, C, electrical conductivity, and clay prediction models.
Methods
Sediment was collected in 10 empty reservoirs, and physical and chemical laboratory analyses as well as spectral measurements were performed. The spectra, initially measured at 1 nm spectral resolution, were resampled to 5 and 10 nm, and samples were analysed for both high and low spectral resolution at three spatial scales, namely (1) reservoir, (2) catchment, and (3) regional scale.
Results
Partial least square regressions performed from good to very good in the prediction of clay and electrical conductivity from reservoir (<40 km(2)) to regional (82,500 km(2)) scales. Models for C and N performed satisfactorily at the reservoir scale, but degraded to unsatisfactory at the other scales. Models for P and K were more unstable and performed from unsatisfactorily to satisfactorily at all scales. Coarsening spectral resolution by up to 10 nm only slightly degrades the models' performance, indicating the potential of characterizing sediment from spectral data captured at lower resolutions, such as by hyperspectral satellite sensors.
Conclusion:
By reducing the costly and time-consuming laboratory analyses, the method helps to promote the sediment reuse as a practice of soil and water conservation.
Urban surface runoff management via best management practices (BMP) and low impact development (LID) has earned significant recognition owing to positive environmental and ecological impacts. However, due to the complexity of the parameters involved, the estimation of LID efficiency in attenuating the urban surface runoff at the watershed scale is challenging. A planning analysis of employing Green Roofs and Infiltration Trenches as BMPs/LIDs practices for urban surface runoff control is presented in this study. A multi-objective optimization decision-making framework is established by coupling SWMM (Storm Water Management Model) with NSGA-II models to check the performance of BMPs/LIDs concerning the cost-benefit analysis of LID at the watershed scale. Two urbanized areas belonging to Central Delhi in India were used as case studies. The results showed that the SWMM model is useful in simulating optimization problems for managing urban surface runoff. The optimum scenarios efficiently minimized the urban runoff volume while maintaining the BMPs/LIDs implementation costs and size. With BMPs/LIDs implementation, the reduction in runoff volume increases as expenses increase initially; however, there is no noticeable reduction in flood volume after a certain threshold. Contrasted with the haphazard arrangement of BMPs/LIDs, the proposed approach demonstrates 22%-24% runoff reductions for the same expenditures in watershed 1 and 23%-26% in watershed 2. The result of the study provides insights into planning and management of the urban surface runoff control with LID practices. The proposed framework assists the hydrologists in optimum selection and placements of BMPs/LIDs practices to acquire the most extreme ecological advantages with the least expenses.
Van Allen Probes measurements revealed the presence of the most unusual structures in the ultra-relativistic radiation belts. Detailed modeling, analysis of pitch angle distributions, analysis of the difference between relativistic and ultra-realistic electron evolution, along with theoretical studies of the scattering and wave growth, all indicate that electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves can produce a very efficient loss of the ultra-relativistic electrons in the heart of the radiation belts. Moreover, a detailed analysis of the profiles of phase space densities provides direct evidence for localized loss by EMIC waves. The evolution of multi-MeV fluxes shows dramatic and very sudden enhancements of electrons for selected storms. Analysis of phase space density profiles reveals that growing peaks at different values of the first invariant are formed at approximately the same radial distance from the Earth and show the sequential formation of the peaks from lower to higher energies, indicating that local energy diffusion is the dominant source of the acceleration from MeV to multi-MeV energies. Further simultaneous analysis of the background density and ultra-relativistic electron fluxes shows that the acceleration to multi-MeV energies only occurs when plasma density is significantly depleted outside of the plasmasphere, which is consistent with the modeling of acceleration due to chorus waves.
We present two new empirical models of radiation belt electron flux at geostationary orbit. GOES-15 measurements of 0.8 MeV electrons were used to train a Nonlinear Autoregressive with Exogenous input (NARX) neural network for both modeling GOES-15 flux values and an upper boundary condition scaling factor (BF). The GOES-15 flux model utilizes an input and feedback delay of 2 and 2 time steps (i.e., 5 min time steps) with the most efficient number of hidden layers set to 10. Magnetic local time, Dst, Kp, solar wind dynamic pressure, AE, and solar wind velocity were found to perform as predicative indicators of GOES-15 flux and therefore were used as the exogenous inputs. The NARX-derived upper boundary condition scaling factor was used in conjunction with the Versatile Electron Radiation Belt (VERB) code to produce reconstructions of the radiation belts during the period of July-November 1990, independent of in-situ observations. Here, Kp was chosen as the sole exogenous input to be more compatible with the VERB code. This Combined Release and Radiation Effects Satellite-era reconstruction showcases the potential to use these neural network-derived boundary conditions as a method of hindcasting the historical radiation belts. This study serves as a companion paper to another recently published study on reconstructing the radiation belts during Solar Cycles 17-24 (Saikin et al., 2021, ), for which the results featured in this paper were used.
Regional flood frequency analysis (RFFA) is a powerful method for interrogating hydrological series since it combines observational time series from several sites within a region to estimate risk-relevant statistical parameters with higher accuracy than from single-site series. Since RFFA extreme value estimates depend on the shape of the selected distribution of the data-generating stochastic process, there is need for a suitable goodness-of-distributional-fit measure in order to optimally utilize given data. Here we present a novel, least-squares-based measure to select the optimal fit from a set of five distributions, namely Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), Generalized Logistic, Gumbel, Log-Normal Type III and Log-Pearson Type III. The fit metric is applied to annual maximum discharge series from six hydrological stations along the Sava River in South-eastern Europe, spanning the years 1961 to 2020. Results reveal that (1) the Sava River basin can be assessed as hydrologically homogeneous and (2) the GEV distribution provides typically the best fit. We offer hydrological-meteorological insights into the differences among the six stations. For the period studied, almost all stations exhibit statistically insignificant trends, which renders the conclusions about flood risk as relevant for hydrological sciences and the design of regional flood protection infrastructure.
Climate Benefits of Cleaner Energy Transitions in East and South Asia Through Black Carbon Reduction
(2022)
The state of air pollution has historically been tightly linked to how we produce and use energy. Air pollutant emissions over Asia are now changing rapidly due to cleaner energy transitions; however, magnitudes of benefits for climate and air quality remain poorly quantified. The associated risks involve adverse health impacts, reduced agricultural yields, reduced freshwater availability, contributions to climate change, and economic costs. We focus particularly on climate benefits of energy transitions by making first-time use of two decades of high quality observations of atmospheric loading of light-absorbing black carbon (BC) over Kanpur (South Asia) and Beijing (East Asia) and relating these observations to changing energy, emissions, and economic trends in India and China. Our analysis reveals that absorption aerosol optical depth (AAOD) due to BC has decreased substantially, by 40% over Kanpur and 60% over Beijing between 2001 and 2017, and thus became decoupled from regional economic growth. Furthermore, the resultant decrease in BC emissions and BC AAOD over Asia is regionally coherent and occurs primarily due to transitions into cleaner energies (both renewables and fossil fuels) and not due to the decrease in primary energy supply or decrease in use of fossil use and biofuels and waste. Model simulations show that BC aerosols alone contribute about half of the surface temperature change (warming) of the total forcing due to greenhouse gases, natural and internal variability, and aerosols, thus clearly revealing the climate benefits due to a reduction in BC emissions, which would significantly reduce global warming. However, this modeling study excludes responses from natural variability, circulation, and sea ice responses, which cause relatively strong temperature fluctuations that may mask signals from BC aerosols. Our findings show additional benefits for climate (beyond benefits of CO2 reduction) and for several other issues of sustainability over South and East Asia, provide motivation for ongoing cleaner energy production, and consumption transitions, especially when they are associated with reduced emissions of air pollutants. Such an analysis connecting the trends in energy transitions and aerosol absorption loading, unavailable so far, is crucial for simulating the aerosol climate impacts over Asia which is quite uncertain.
In this study, 3-D models of P-wave velocity (Vp) and P-wave and S-wave ratio (Vp/Vs) of the crust and upper mantle in the Eastern and eastern Southern Alps (northern Italy and southern Austria) were calculated using local earthquake tomography (LET). The data set includes high-quality arrival times from well-constrained hypocenters observed by the dense, temporary seismic networks of the AlpArray AASN and SWATH-D. The resolution of the LET was checked by synthetic tests and analysis of the model resolution matrix. The small inter-station spacing (average of similar to 15 km within the SWATH-D network) allowed us to image crustal structure at unprecedented resolution across a key part of the Alps. The derived P velocity model revealed a highly heterogeneous crustal structure in the target area. One of the main findings is that the lower crust is thickened, forming a bulge at 30-50 km depth just south of and beneath the Periadriatic Fault and the Tauern Window. This indicates that the lower crust decoupled both from its mantle substratum as well as from its upper crust. The Moho, taken to be the iso-velocity contour of Vp = 7.25 km/s, agrees with the Moho depth from previous studies in the European and Adriatic forelands. It is shallower on the Adriatic side than on the European side. This is interpreted to indicate that the European Plate is subducted beneath the Adriatic Plate in the Eastern and eastern Southern Alps.
Phase transitions in molecular crystals are often determined by intermolecular interactions. The cage complex of [Co(C12H30N8)](3+) . 3 NO3- is reported to undergo a disorder-order phase transition at T-c1 approximate to 133 K upon cooling. Temperature-dependent neutron and synchrotron diffraction experiments revealed satellite reflections in addition to main reflections in the diffraction patterns below T-c1. The modulation wave vector varies as function of temperature and locks in at T-c3 approximate to 98 K. Here, we demonstrate that the crystal symmetry lowers from hexagonal to monoclinic in the incommensurately modulated phases in T-c1<T<T-c3. Distinctive levels of competitions: trade-off between longer N-H...O and shorter C-H...O hydrogen bonds; steric constraints to dense C-H...O bonds give rise to pronounced modulation of the basic structure. Severely frustrated crystal packing in the incommensurate phase is precursor to optimal balance of intermolecular interactions in the lock-in phase.
Volcano-seismic signals such as long-period events and tremor are important indicators for volcanic activity and unrest. However, their wavefield is complex and characterization and location using traditional seismological instrumentation is often difficult.
In 2019 we recorded the full seismic wavefield using a newly developed 3C rotational sensor co-located with a 3C traditional seismometer on Etna, Italy. We compare the performance of the rotational sensor, the seismometer and the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia-Osservatorio Etneo (INGV-OE) seismic network with respect to the analysis of complex volcano-seismic signals. We create event catalogs for volcano-tectonic (VT) and long-period (LP) events combining a STA/LTA algorithm and cross-correlations.
The event detection based on the rotational sensor is as reliable as the seismometer-based detection. The LP events are dominated by SH-type waves. Derived SH phase velocities range from 500 to 1,000 m/s for LP events and 300-400 m/s for volcanic tremor. SH-waves compose the tremor during weak volcanic activity and SH- and SV-waves during sustained strombolian activity.
We derive back azimuths using (a) horizontal rotational components and (b) vertical rotation rate and transverse acceleration. The estimated back azimuths are consistent with the INGV-OE event location for (a) VT events with an epicentral distance larger than 3 km and some closer events, (b) LP events and tremor in the main crater area. Measuring the full wavefield we can reliably analyze the back azimuths, phase velocities and wavefield composition for VT, LP events and tremor in regions that are difficult to access such as volcanoes.
Extracting information about past tectonic or climatic environmental changes from sedimentary records is a key objective of provenance research. Interpreting the imprint of such changes remains challenging as signals might be altered in the sediment-routing system.
We investigate the sedimentary provenance of the Oligocene/Miocene Upper Austrian Northern Alpine Foreland Basin and its response to the tectonically driven exhumation of the Tauern Window metamorphic dome (28 +/- 1 Ma) in the Eastern European Alps by using the unprecedented combination of Nd isotopic composition of bulk-rock clay-sized samples and partly previously published multi-proxy (Nd isotopic composition, trace-element geochemistry, U-Pb dating) sand-sized apatite single-grain analysis.
The basin offers an excellent opportunity to investigate environmental signal propagation into the sedimentary record because comprehensive stratigraphic and seismic datasets can be combined with present research results. The bulk-rock clay-sized fraction epsilon Nd values of well-cutting samples from one well on the northern basin slope remained stable at similar to-9.7 from 27 to 19 Ma but increased after 19 Ma to similar to-9.1. In contrast, apatite single-grain distributions, which were extracted from 22 drill-core samples, changed significantly around 23.3 Ma from apatites dominantly from low-grade (<upper amphibolite-facies) metamorphic sources with Permo-Mesozoic and late Variscan U-Pb ages and epsilon Nd values of -4.4 to dominantly high-grade metamorphic apatites with late Variscan U-Pb ages and epsilon Nd values of -2.2.
The change in apatite single-grain distributions at 23.3 Ma is interpreted to result from the exposure of a new Upper Austroalpine source nappe with less negative epsilon Nd values triggered by the ongoing Tauern Window exhumation. Combining these data with the clay-sized bulk-rock epsilon Nd values reveals that the provenance changed 4-5 Myrs later at 19 Ma in the clay-sized fraction.
Reasons for the delayed provenance-change recording are rooted in the characteristics of the applied methods.
Whereas single-grain distributions of orogen-wide sediment-routing systems can be dominated by geographically small areas with high erosion and mineral fertility rates, bulk-rock methods integrate over the entire drainage basin, thus diminishing extreme values. Hence, by combining these two methods, spatial information are uncovered, enabling a previously unattained understanding of the underlying environmental change.
White mica and tourmaline are the dominant hydrothermal alteration minerals at the world-class Panasqueira W-Sn-Cu deposit in Portugal. Thus, understanding the controls on their chemical composition helps to constrain ore formation processes at this deposit and determine their usefulness as pathfinder minerals for mineralization in general. We combine whole-rock geochemistry of altered and unaltered metasedimentary host rocks with in situ LA-ICP-MS measurements of tourmaline and white mica from the alteration halo. Principal component analysis (PCA) is used to better identify geochemical patterns and trends of hydrothermal alteration in the datasets. The hydrothermally altered metasediments are enriched in As, Sn, Cs, Li, W, F, Cu, Rb, Zn, Tl, and Pb relative to unaltered samples. In situ mineral analyses show that most of these elements preferentially partition into white mica over tourmaline (Li, Rb, Cs, Tl, W, and Sn), whereas Zn is enriched in tourmaline. White mica has distinct compositions in different settings within the deposit (greisen, vein selvages, wall rock alteration zone, late fault zone), indicating a compositional evolution with time. In contrast, tourmaline from different settings overlaps in composition, which is ascribed to a stronger dependence on host rock composition and also to the effects of chemical zoning and microinclusions affecting the LA-ICP-MS analyses. Hence, in this deposit, white mica is the better recorder of the fluid composition. The calculated trace-element contents of the Panasqueira mineralizing fluid based on the mica data and estimates of mica-fluid partition coefficients are in good agreement with previous fluid-inclusion analyses. A compilation of mica and tourmaline trace-element compositions from Panasqueira and other W-Sn deposits shows that white mica has good potential as a pathfinder mineral, with characteristically high Li, Cs, Rb, Sn, and W contents. The trace-element contents of hydrothermal tourmaline are more variable. Nevertheless, the compiled data suggest that high Sn and Li contents are distinctive for tourmaline from W-Sn deposits.
The Devonian Las Chacras-Potrerillos batholith comprises six nested monzonitic to granitic intrusions with metaluminous to weakly peraluminous composition and a Sr-Nd isotopic signature indicating a dominantly juvenile mantle-derived source. The chemically most evolved units in the southern batholith contain a large number of intra-granitic, pod-shaped tourmaline-bearing pegmatites. This study uses in situ chemical and boron isotopic analyses of tourmaline from nine of these pegmatites to discuss their relationship to the respective host intrusions and the implications of their B-isotope composition for the source and evolution of the magmas. The tourmalines reveal a diversity in element composition (e.g., FeO, MgO, TiO2, CaO, MnO, F) which distinguishes individual pegmatites from one another. However, all have a narrow 5 11 B range of -13.7 to -10.5%0 (n = 100) which indicates a relatively uniform magmatic system and similar temperature conditions during tourmaline crystallization. The average delta(11) B value of -11.7%0 is typical for S-type granites and is within the range reported for peraluminous granites. pegmatites, and metamorphic units of the Ordovician basement into which the Las Chacras-Potrerillos batholith intruded. The B-isotope evidence argues for a crustal boron source like that of the Ordovician basement, in contrast to the metaluminous to weakly peraluminous composition and juvenile initial Sr and Nd isotope ratios of the Las Chacras-Potrerillos batholith magmas. We propose that the boron was not derived from the magma source region but was incorporated from dehydration melting of elastic metasedimentary rocks higher up in the crustal column.
The Altiplano-Puna Plateau holds several shallow lakes, which are very sensitive to climate changes. This work is focused on a high-altitude lake system called Lagunas de Vilama (LVS), located in a complex climatic transition area with scarcity of continuous and homogeneous instrumental records. The objective of this study is to determine the regional spatial-temporal variability of precipitation and evaluate the seasonal and interannual lake responses. We use a lake-surfaces record derived from Landsat images to investigate links with regional precipitations and different climatic forcings. The results reveal that austral summer and autumn precipitations control the variability of the annual lake-surfaces. Also, we found intra-annual and interannual lags in the lake responses to precipitations, and identified several wet and dry stages. Our results show negative trends in precipitations and lake-surfaces, whose were strengthened by a shift to a warm phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation in the 1990s. The El Nino Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and Southern Annular Mode also exert a strong influence in the region. This study demonstrates that the variability of LVS lakes is strongly related to the South American Monsoon System dynamics and large-scale climate fordngs from the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. This work provides novel indices which demonstrated to be good indicators of regional hydroclimatological variability for this region of South America.
Long- and short-term monitoring of a dam in response to seasonal changes and ground motion loading
(2021)
An experimental multi-parameter structural monitoring system has been installed on the Kurpsai dam, western Kyrgyz Republic. This system consists of equipment for seismic and strain measurements for making longer- (days, weeks, months) and shorter- (minutes, hours) term observations, dealing with, for example seasonal (longer) effects or the response of the dam to ground motion from noise or seismic events. Fibre-optic strain sensors allow the seasonal and daily opening and closing of the spaces between the dam's segments to be tracked. For the seismic data, both amplitude (in terms of using differences in amplitudes in the Fourier spectra for mapping the modes of vibration of the dam) and their time-frequency distribution for a set of small to moderate seismic events are investigated and the corresponding phase variabilities (in terms of lagged coherency) are evaluated. Even for moderate levels of seismic-induced ground motion, some influence on the structural response can be detected, which then sees the dam quickly return to its original state. A seasonal component was identified in the strain measurements, while levels of noise arising from the operation of the dam's generators and associated water flow have been provisionally identified.
Centroid moment tensor (CMT) parameters can be estimated from seismic waveforms. Since these data indirectly observe the deformation process, CMTs are inferred as solutions to inverse problems which are generally underdetermined and require significant assumptions, including assumptions about data noise. Broadly speaking, we consider noise to include both theory and measurement errors, where theory errors are due to assumptions in the inverse problem and measurement errors are caused by the measurement process. While data errors are routinely included in parameter estimation for full CMTs, less attention has been paid to theory errors related to velocity-model uncertainties and how these affect the resulting moment-tensor (MT) uncertainties. Therefore, rigorous uncertainty quantification for CMTs may require theory-error estimation which becomes a problem of specifying noise models. Various noise models have been proposed, and these rely on several assumptions. All approaches quantify theory errors by estimating the covariance matrix of data residuals. However, this estimation can be based on explicit modelling, empirical estimation and/or ignore or include covariances. We quantitatively compare several approaches by presenting parameter and uncertainty estimates in nonlinear full CMT estimation for several simulated data sets and regional field data of the M-1 4.4, 2015 June 13 Fox Creek, Canada, event. While our main focus is at regional distances, the tested approaches are general and implemented for arbitrary source model choice. These include known or unknown centroid locations, full MTs, deviatoric MTs and double-couple MTs. We demonstrate that velocity-model uncertainties can profoundly affect parameter estimation and that their inclusion leads to more realistic parameter uncertainty quantification. However, not all approaches perform equally well. Including theory errors by estimating non-stationary (non-Toeplitz) error covariance matrices via iterative schemes during Monte Carlo sampling performs best and is computationally most efficient. In general, including velocity-model uncertainties is most important in cases where velocity structure is poorly known.
Ice-rich permafrost has been subject to abrupt thaw and thermokarst formation in the past and is vulnerable to current global warming. The ice-rich permafrost domain includes Yedoma sediments that have never thawed since deposition during the late Pleistocene and Alas sediments that were formed by previous thermokarst processes during the Lateglacial and Holocene warming. Permafrost thaw unlocks organic carbon (OC) and minerals from these deposits and exposes OC to mineralization. A portion of the OC can be associated with iron (Fe), a redox-sensitive element acting as a trap for OC. Post-depositional thaw processes may have induced changes in redox conditions in these deposits and thereby affected Fe distribution and interactions between OC and Fe, with knock-on effects on the role that Fe plays in mediating present day OC mineralization. To test this hypothesis, we measured Fe concentrations and proportion of Fe oxides and Fe complexed with OC in unthawed Yedoma and previously thawed Alas deposits. Total Fe concentrations were determined on 1,292 sediment samples from the Yedoma domain using portable X-ray fluorescence; these concentrations were corrected for trueness using a calibration based on a subset of 144 samples measured by inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometry after alkaline fusion (R (2) = 0.95). The total Fe concentration is stable with depth in Yedoma deposits, but we observe a depletion or accumulation of total Fe in Alas deposits, which experienced previous thaw and/or flooding events. Selective Fe extractions targeting reactive forms of Fe on unthawed and previously thawed deposits highlight that about 25% of the total Fe is present as reactive species, either as crystalline or amorphous oxides, or complexed with OC, with no significant difference in proportions of reactive Fe between Yedoma and Alas deposits. These results suggest that redox driven processes during past thermokarst formation impact the present-day distribution of total Fe, and thereby the total amount of reactive Fe in Alas versus Yedoma deposits. This study highlights that ongoing thermokarst lake formation and drainage dynamics in the Arctic influences reactive Fe distribution and thereby interactions between Fe and OC, OC mineralization rates, and greenhouse gas emissions.