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A tale of shifting relations
(2021)
Understanding the dynamics between the East Asian summer (EASM) and winter monsoon (EAWM) is needed to predict their variability under future global warming scenarios. Here, we investigate the relationship between EASM and EAWM as well as the mechanisms driving their variability during the last 10,000 years by stacking marine and terrestrial (non-speleothem) proxy records from the East Asian realm. This provides a regional and proxy independent signal for both monsoonal systems. The respective signal was subsequently analysed using a linear regression model. We find that the phase relationship between EASM and EAWM is not time-constant and significantly depends on orbital configuration changes. In addition, changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning circulation, Arctic sea-ice coverage, El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Sun Spot numbers contributed to millennial scale changes in the EASM and EAWM during the Holocene. We also argue that the bulk signal of monsoonal activity captured by the stacked non-speleothem proxy records supports the previously argued bias of speleothem climatic archives to moisture source changes and/or seasonality.
Spectral analysis is a technique of time-series analysis that decomposes signals into linear combinations of harmonic components. Rooted in the 19th century, spectral analysis gained popularity in palaeoclimatology since the early 1980s. This was partly due to the availability of long time series of past climates, but also the development of new, partly adapted methods and the increasing spread of affordable personal computers. This paper reviews the most important methods of spectral analysis for palaeoclimate time series and discusses the prerequisites for their application as well as advantages and disadvantages. The paper also offers an overview of suitable software, as well as computer code for using the methods on synthetic examples.
We present an approach for rapidly estimating full moment tensors of earthquakes and their parameter uncertainties based on short time windows of recorded seismic waveform data by considering deep learning of Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs). The individual neural networks are trained on synthetic seismic waveform data and corresponding known earthquake moment-tensor parameters. A monitoring volume has been predefined to form a three-dimensional grid of locations and to train a BNN for each grid point. Variational inference on several of these networks allows us to consider several sources of error and how they affect the estimated full moment-tensor parameters and their uncertainties. In particular, we demonstrate how estimated parameter distributions are affected by uncertainties in the earthquake centroid location in space and time as well as in the assumed Earth structure model. We apply our approach as a proof of concept on seismic waveform recordings of aftershocks of the Ridgecrest 2019 earthquake with moment magnitudes ranging from Mw 2.7 to Mw 5.5. Overall, good agreement has been achieved between inferred parameter ensembles and independently estimated parameters using classical methods. Our developed approach is fast and robust, and therefore, suitable for down-stream analyses that need rapid estimates of the source mechanism for a large number of earthquakes.
The intensification of Northern Hemisphere glaciations at the end of the Pliocene epoch marks one of the most substantial climatic shifts of the Cenozoic. Despite global cooling, sea surface temperatures in the high latitude North Atlantic Ocean rose between 2.9–2.7 million years ago. Here we present sedimentary geochemical proxy data from the Gulf of Cadiz to reconstruct the variability of Mediterranean Outflow Water, an important heat source to the North Atlantic. We find evidence for enhanced production of Mediterranean Outflow from the mid-Pliocene to the late Pliocene which we infer could have driven a sub-surface heat channel into the high-latitude North Atlantic. We then use Earth System Models to constrain the impact of enhanced Mediterranean Outflow production on the northward heat transport in the North Atlantic. In accord with the proxy data, the numerical model results support the formation of a sub-surface channel that pumped heat from the subtropics into the high latitude North Atlantic. We further suggest that this mechanism could have delayed ice sheet growth at the end of the Pliocene.
Ground-penetrating radar (GPR) is a standard geophysical technique used to image near-surface structures in sedimentary environments. In such environments, GPR data acquisition and processing are increasingly following 3D strategies. However, the processed GPR data volumes are typically still interpreted using selected 2D slices and manual concepts such as GPR facies analyses. In seismic volume interpretation, the application of (semi-)automated and reproducible approaches such as 3D attribute analyses as well as the production of attribute-based facies models are common practices today. In contrast, the field of 3D GPR attribute analyses and corresponding facies models is largely untapped. We have developed and applied a workflow to produce 3D attribute-based GPR facies models comprising the dominant sedimentary reflection patterns in a GPR volume, which images complex sandy structures on the dune island of Spiekeroog (Northern Germany). After presenting our field site and details regarding our data acquisition and processing, we calculate and filter 3D texture attributes to generate a database comprising the dominant texture features of our GPR data. Then, we perform a dimensionality reduction of this database to obtain meta texture attributes, which we analyze and integrate using composite imaging and (also considering additional geometric information) fuzzy c-means cluster analysis resulting in a classified GPR facies model. Considering our facies model and a corresponding GPR facies chart, we interpret our GPR data set in terms of near-surface sedimentary units, the corresponding depositional environments, and the recent formation history at our field site. Thus, we demonstrate the potential of our workflow, which represents a novel and clear strategy to perform a more objective and consistent interpretation of 3D GPR data collected across different sedimentary environments.
Precambrian meta-pelites of the Poshtuk area in northwest Iran contain the prograde mineral assemblage staurolite-garnet-chloritoid-muscovite-biotite that was replaced by the assemblage garnet-staurolite-chlorite-muscovite-biotite at peak metamorphic condition.
Whole-rock compositions reveal that high Fe, Al and Mn contents of their protolith rendered them prone to form these assemblages. Pseudosections calculated in KFMASH, MnKFMASH, and MnNCKFMASHO systems were used to investigate the P-T evolution of the samples. They clearly show the significant effect of MnO on the stability of the chloritoid-bearing assemblages and the formation of garnet through consumption of chlorite and chloritoid. The pseudosection in a T- aH(2)O diagram shows that the studied assemblage could be stable only at a(H2O)>0.8. X-Mg isopleths for garnet and biotite point to peak P-T conditions of about 3.75 kbar and 575 degrees C. Chloritoid stability is overstepped with such conditions. This can be attributed to thermal perturbation due to plutonism. It is concluded, metamorphism was primarily controlled by advective heat from magmatic intrusions in the Poshtuk area. The Precambrian basement complexes were extensively overprinted by the Pan-African Orogeny as well as younger magmatic and metamorphic activities associated to Alpine Orogeny during convergence of Arabian and Eurasian plate.
The concentration of sulfur that can be dissolved in a silicate liquid is of fundamental importance because it is closely associated with several major Earth-related processes. Considerable effort has been made to understand the interplay between the effects of silicate melt composition and its capac-ity to retain sulfur, but the dependence on pressure and temperature is mostly based on experiments performed at pressures and temperatures below 6 GPa and 2073 K. Here we present a study of the effects of pressure and temperature on sulfur content at sulfide saturation of a peridotitic liquid. We performed 14 multi-anvil experiments using a peridotitic starting composition, and we produced 25 new measurements at conditions ranging from 7 to 23 GPa and 2173 to 2623 K. We analyzed the recovered samples using both electron microprobe and laser ablation ICP-MS. We compiled our data together with previously published data that were obtained at lower P-T conditions and with various silicate melt compositions. We present a new model based on this combined data set that encompasses the entire range of upper mantle pressure-temperature conditions, along with the effect of a wide range of silicate melt compositions. Our findings are consistent with earlier work based on extrapolation from lower-pressure and lower-temperature experiments and show a decrease of sulfur content at sulfide saturation (SCSS) with increasing pressure and an increase of SCSS with increasing temperature. We have extrapolated our results to pressure-temperature conditions of the Earth's primitive magma ocean, and show that FeS will exsolve from the molten silicate and can effectively be extracted to the core by a process that has been termed the "Hadean Matte." We also discuss briefly the implications of our results for the lunar magma ocean.
The sediment profile from Lake Goscia(z) over dot in central Poland comprises a continuous, seasonally resolved and exceptionally well-preserved archive of the Younger Dryas (YD) climate variation. This provides a unique opportunity for detailed investigation of lake system responses during periods of rapid climate cooling (YD onset) and warming (YD termination). The new varve record of Lake Goscia(z) over dot presented here spans 1662 years from the late Allerod (AL) to the early Preboreal (PB). Microscopic varve counting provides an independent chronology with a YD duration of 1149+14/-22 years, which confirms previous results of 1140 +/- 40 years. We link stable oxygen isotopes and chironomid-based air temperature reconstructions with the response of various geochemical and varve microfacies proxies especially focusing on the onset and termination of the YD. Cooling at the YD onset lasted similar to 180 years, which is about a century longer than the terminal warming that was completed in similar to 70 years. During the AL/YD transition, environmental proxy data lagged the onset of cooling by similar to 90 years and revealed an increase of lake productivity and internal lake re-suspension as well as slightly higher detrital sediment input. In contrast, rapid warming and environmental changes during the YD/PB transition occurred simultaneously. However, initial changes such as declining diatom deposition and detrital input occurred already a few centuries before the rapid warming at the YD/PB transition. These environmental changes likely reflect a gradual increase in summer air temperatures already during the YD. Our data indicate complex and differing environmental responses to the major climate changes related to the YD, which involve different proxy sensitivities and threshold processes.
Hydromechanical investigations on the self-propping potential of fractures in tight sandstones
(2021)
The hydromechanical properties of single self-propping fractures under stress are of fundamental interest for fractured-rock hydrology and a large number of geotechnical applications. This experimental study investigates fracture closure and hydraulic aperture changes of displaced tensile fractures, aligned tensile fractures, and saw-cut fractures for two types of sandstone (i.e., Flechtinger and Fontainebleau) with contrasting mechanical properties, cycling confining pressure between 5 and 30 MPa. Emphasis is placed on how surface roughness, fracture wall offset, and the mechanical properties of the contact asperities affect the self-propping potential of these fractures under normal stress. A relative fracture wall displacement can significantly increase fracture aperture and hydraulic conductivity, but the degree of increase strongly depends on the fracture surface roughness. For smooth fractures, surface roughness remains scale-independent as long as the fracture area is larger than a roll-off wavelength and thus any further displacement does not affect fracture aperture. For rough tensile fractures, these are self-affine over a larger scale so that an incremental fracture wall offset likely leads to an increase in fracture aperture. X-ray microtomography of the fractures indicates that the contact area ratio of the tensile fractures after the confining pressure cycle inversely correlates with the fracture wall offset yielding values in the range of about 3-25%, depending, first, on the respective surface roughness and, second, on the strength of the asperities in contact. Moreover, the contact asperities mainly occur isolated and tend to be preferentially oriented in the direction perpendicular to the fracture wall displacement which, in turn, may induce flow anisotropy. This, overall, implies that relatively harder sedimentary rocks have a higher self-propping potential for sustainable fluid flow through fractures in comparison to relatively soft rocks when specific conditions regarding surface roughness and fracture wall offset are met.
The lithosphere is often assumed to reside in a thermal steady-state when quantitatively describing the temperature distribution in continental interiors and sedimentary basins, but also at active plate boundaries. Here, we investigate the applicability limit of this assumption at slowly deforming continental rifts. To this aim, we assess the tectonic thermal imprint in numerical experiments that cover a range of realistic rift configurations. For each model scenario, the deviation from thermal equilibrium is evaluated. This is done by comparing the transient temperature field of every model to a corresponding steady-state model with an identical structural configuration. We find that the validity of the thermal steady-state assumption strongly depends on rift type, divergence velocity, sampling location, and depth within the rift. Maximum differences between transient and steady-state models occur in narrow rifts, at the rift sides, and if the extension rate exceeds 0.5-2 mm/a. Wide rifts, however, reside close to thermal steady-state even for high extension velocities. The transient imprint of rifting appears to be overall negligible for shallow isotherms with a temperature less than 100 degrees C. Contrarily, a steady-state treatment of deep crustal isotherms leads to an underestimation of crustal temperatures, especially for narrow rift settings. Thus, not only relatively fast rifts like the Gulf of Corinth, Red Sea, and Main Ethiopian Rift, but even slow rifts like the Kenya Rift, Rhine Graben, and Rio Grande Rift must be expected to feature a pronounced transient component in the temperature field and to therefore violate the thermal steady-state assumption for deeper crustal isotherms.
The computational costs associated with coupled reactive transport simulations are mostly due to the chemical subsystem: replacing it with a pre-trained statistical surrogate is a promising strategy to achieve decisive speedups at the price of small accuracy losses and thus to extend the scale of problems which can be handled. We introduce a hierarchical coupling scheme in which "full-physics" equation-based geochemical simulations are partially replaced by surrogates. Errors in mass balance resulting from multivariate surrogate predictions effectively assess the accuracy of multivariate regressions at runtime: inaccurate surrogate predictions are rejected and the more expensive equation-based simulations are run instead. Gradient boosting regressors such as XGBoost, not requiring data standardization and being able to handle Tweedie distributions, proved to be a suitable emulator. Finally, we devise a surrogate approach based on geochemical knowledge, which overcomes the issue of robustness when encountering previously unseen data and which can serve as a basis for further development of hybrid physics-AI modelling.
The global geological volatile cycle (H, C, N) plays an important role in the long term self-regulation of the Earth system. However, the complex interaction between its deep, solid Earth components (i.e. crust and mantle), Earth's fluid envelopes (i.e. atmosphere and hydrosphere) and plate tectonic processes is a subject of ongoing debate. In this study we want to draw attention to how the presence of primary melt (MI) and fluid (FI) inclusions in high-grade metamorphic minerals could help constrain the crustal component of the volatile cycle. To that end, we review the distribution of MI and FI throughout Earth's history, from ca. 3.0 Ga ago up to the present day. We argue that the lower crust might constitute an important, long-term, volatile storage unit, capable to influence the composition of the surface envelopes through the mean of weathering, crustal thickening, partial melting and crustal assimilation during volcanic activity. Combined with thermodynamic modelling, our compilation indicates that periods of well-established plate tectonic regimes at <0.85 Ga and 1.7-2.1 Ga, might be more prone to the reworking of supracrustal lithologies and the storage of volatiles in the lower crust. Such hypothesis has implication beyond the scope of metamorphic petrology as it potentially links geodynamic mechanisms to habitable surface conditions. MI and FI in metamorphic crustal rocks then represent an invaluable archive to assess and quantify the co-joint evolution of plate tectonics and Earth's external processes. (C) 2021 China University of Geosciences (Beijing) and Peking University. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
Much of contemporary landslide research is concerned with predicting and mapping susceptibility to slope failure. Many studies rely on generalised linear models with environmental predictors that are trained with data collected from within and outside of the margins of mapped landslides. Whether and how the performance of these models depends on sample size, location, or time remains largely untested. We address this question by exploring the sensitivity of a multivariate logistic regression-one of the most widely used susceptibility models-to data sampled from different portions of landslides in two independent inventories (i.e. a historic and a multi-temporal) covering parts of the eastern rim of the Fergana Basin, Kyrgyzstan. We find that considering only areas on lower parts of landslides, and hence most likely their deposits, can improve the model performance by >10% over the reference case that uses the entire landslide areas, especially for landslides of intermediate size. Hence, using landslide toe areas may suffice for this particular model and come in useful where landslide scars are vague or hidden in this part of Central Asia. The model performance marginally varied after progressively updating and adding more landslides data through time. We conclude that landslide susceptibility estimates for the study area remain largely insensitive to changes in data over about a decade. Spatial or temporal stratified sampling contributes only minor variations to model performance. Our findings call for more extensive testing of the concept of dynamic susceptibility and its interpretation in data-driven models, especially within the broader framework of landslide risk assessment under environmental and land-use change.
Knowledge of pressure-dependent static and dynamic moduli of porous reservoir rocks is of key importance for evaluating geological setting of a reservoir in geo-energy applications. We examined experimentally the evolution of static and dynamic bulk moduli for porous Bentheim sandstone with increasing confining pressure up to about 190 MPa under dry and water-saturated conditions. The static bulk moduli (K-s) were estimated from stress-volumetric strain curves while dynamic bulk moduli (K-d) were derived from the changes in ultrasonic P- and S- wave velocities (similar to 1 MHz) along different traces, which were monitored simultaneously during the entire deformation. In conjunction with published data of other porous sandstones (Berea, Navajo and Weber sandstones), our results reveal that the ratio between dynamic and static bulk moduli (K-d/K-s) reduces rapidly from about 1.5 - 2.0 at ambient pressure to about 1.1 at high pressure under dry conditions and from about 2.0 - 4.0 to about 1.5 under water-saturated conditions, respectively. We interpret such a pressure-dependent reduction by closure of narrow (compliant) cracks, highlighting thatK(d)/K(s)is positively correlated with the amount of narrow cracks. Above the crack closure pressure, where equant (stiff) pores dominate the void space,K-d/K(s)is almost constant. The enhanced difference between dynamic and static bulk moduli under water saturation compared to dry conditions is possibly caused by high pore pressure that is locally maintained if measured using high-frequency ultrasonic wave velocities. In our experiments, the pressure dependence of dynamic bulk modulus of water-saturated Bentheim sandstone at effective pressures above 5 MPa can be roughly predicted by both the effective medium theory (Mori-Tanaka scheme) and the squirt-flow model. Static bulk moduli are found to be more sensitive to narrow cracks than dynamic bulk moduli for porous sandstones under dry and water-saturated conditions.
The Issyk-Kul Basin (Kyrgyzstan), situated in the central Tian Shan Mountains, hosts the largest and deepest mountain lake in Central Asia. Erosion of the surrounding Terskey and Kungey ranges led to the accumulation of up to 4 km of sediment in the adjacent depression. Creation of the basin from regional shortening and uplift likely initiated around the Oligocene-Miocene, yet precise age control is sparse. To better understand the timing of these processes, we obtained magnetostratigraphic age constraints on fossil-poor, fluvio-lacustrine sediments exposed south of Lake Issyk-Kul, that agree well with previous age constraints of the equivalent strata outside the Issyk-Kul Basin. Two 500-650 m thick sections comprised mainly of Chu Group sediments were dated at 6.3-2.8 Ma and 7.0-2.4 Ma (late Miocene to early Pleistocene). Together with reinterpreted magnetostratigraphic constraints from underlying strata, we find that syn-tectonic deposition commenced at similar to 22 Ma with average sedimentation rates <10 cm/ka. Sedimentation rates increased to 10-30 cm/ka at 7 Ma, concurrent with accelerated uplift in the Terskey Range to the south. A deformation event in one section (Kaji-Say) between 5 and 3 Ma together with concurrent shifts of depositional centers throughout the basin signal the onset of substantial uplift of the Kungey Range to the north at similar to 5 Ma. This uplift and deformation transformed the Issyk-Kul area into a closed basin that facilitated the formation of a deep lake. Lacustrine facies deposited around 3 Ma mark the existence of Lake Issyk-Kul by that time.
Multi-component (MC) diffusion simulations enable a process based and more precise approach to calculate transport and sorption compared to the commonly used single-component (SC) models following Fick's law. The MC approach takes into account the interaction of chemical species in the porewater with the diffuse double layer (DDL) adhering clay mineral surfaces. We studied the shaly, sandy and carbonate-rich facies of the Opalinus Clay. High clay contents dominate diffusion and sorption of uranium. The MC simulations show shorter diffusion lengths than the SC models due to anion exclusion from the DDL. This hampers diffusion of the predominant species CaUO2(CO3)32-. On the one side, species concentrations and ionic strengths of the porewater and on the other side surface charge of the clay minerals control the composition and behaviour of the DDL. For some instances, it amplifies the diffusion of uranium. We developed a workflow to transfer computationally intensive MC simulations to SC models via calibrated effective diffusion and distribution coefficients. Simulations for one million years depict maximum uranium diffusion lengths between 10 m and 35 m. With respect to the minimum requirement of a thickness of 100 m, the Opalinus Clay seems to be a suitable host rock for nuclear waste repositories.
Barite stands out as one of the most ubiquitous scaling agents in deep geothermal systems, responsible for irreversible efficiency loss. Due to complex parameter interplay, it is imperative to utilise numerical simulations to investigate temporal and spatial precipitation effects. A one-dimensional reactive transport model is set up with heterogeneous nucleation and crystal growth kinetics. In line with geothermal systems in the North German Basin, the following parameters are considered in a sensitivity analysis: temperature (25 to 150 degrees C), pore pressure (10 to 50 MPa), fracture aperture (10(-4) to 10(-2) m), flow velocity (10(-3) to 10(0) m s(-1)), molar volume (50.3 to 55.6 cm(3) mol(-1)), contact angle for heterogeneous nucleation (0 degrees to 180 degrees), interfacial tension (0.07 to 0.134 J m(-2)), salinity (0.1 to 1.5 mol kgw(-1) NaCl), pH (5 to 7), and supersaturation ratio (1 to 30). Nucleation and consequently crystal growth can only begin if the threshold supersaturation is exceeded, therefore contact angle and interfacial tension are the most sensitive in terms of precipitation kinetics. If nucleation has occurred, crystal growth becomes the dominant process, which is mainly controlled by fracture aperture. Results show that fracture sealing takes place within months (median 33 days) and the affected range can be on the order of tens of metres (median 10 m). The presented models suggest that barite scaling must be recognised as a serious threat if the supersaturation threshold is exceeded, in which case, large fracture apertures could help to minimise kinetic rates. The models further are of use for adjusting the fluid injection temperature.
Natural gas hydrate occurrences contain predominantly methane; however, there are increasing reports of complex mixed gas hydrates and coexisting hydrate phases. Changes in the feed gas composition due to the preferred incorporation of certain components into the hydrate phase and an inadequate gas supply is often assumed to be the cause of coexisting hydrate phases. This could also be the case for the gas hydrate system in Qilian Mountain permafrost (QMP), which is mainly controlled by pores and fractures with complex gas compositions. This study is dedicated to the experimental investigations on the formation process of mixed gas hydrates based on the reservoir conditions in QMP. Hydrates were synthesized from water and a gas mixture under different gas supply conditions to study the effects on the hydrate formation process. In situ Raman spectroscopic measurements and microscopic observations were applied to record changes in both gas and hydrate phase over the whole formation process. The results demonstrated the effects of gas flow on the composition of the resulting hydrate phase, indicating a competitive enclathration of guest molecules into the hydrate lattice depending on their properties. Another observation was that despite significant changes in the gas composition, no coexisting hydrate phases were formed.