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Trait-based studies have become extremely common in plant ecology. Trait-based approaches often rely on the tacit assumption that intraspecific trait variability (ITV) is negligible compared to interspecific variability, so that species can be characterized by mean trait values. Yet, numerous recent studies have challenged this assumption by showing that ITV significantly affects various ecological processes. Accounting for ITV may thus strengthen trait-based approaches, but measuring trait values on a large number of individuals per species and site is not feasible. Therefore, it is important and timely to synthesize existing knowledge on ITV in order to (1) decide critically when ITV should be considered, and (2) establish methods for incorporating this variability. Here we propose a practical set of rules to identify circumstances under which ITV should be accounted for. We formulate a spatial trait variance partitioning hypothesis to highlight the spatial scales at which ITV cannot be ignored in ecological studies. We then refine a set of four consecutive questions on the research question, the spatial scale, the sampling design, and the type of studied traits, to determine case-by-case if a given study should quantify ITV and test its effects. We review methods for quantifying ITV and develop a step-by-step guideline to design and interpret simulation studies that test for the importance of ITV. Even in the absence of quantitative knowledge on ITV, its effects can be assessed by varying trait values within species within realistic bounds around the known mean values. We finish with a discussion of future requirements to further incorporate ITV within trait-based approaches. This paper thus delineates a general framework to account for ITV and suggests a direction towards a more quantitative trait-based ecology.
Plant population modelling has been around since the 1970s, providing a valuable approach to understanding plant ecology from a mechanistic standpoint. It is surprising then that this area of research has not grown in prominence with respect to other approaches employed in modelling plant systems. In this review, we provide an analysis of the development and role of modelling in the field of plant population biology through an exploration of where it has been, where it is now and, in our opinion, where it should be headed. We focus, in particular, on the role plant population modelling could play in ecological forecasting, an urgent need given current rates of regional and global environmental change. We suggest that a critical element limiting the current application of plant population modelling in environmental research is the trade-off between the necessary resolution and detail required to accurately characterize ecological dynamics pitted against the goal of generality, particularly at broad spatial scales. In addition to suggestions how to overcome the current shortcoming of data on the process-level we discuss two emerging strategies that may offer a way to overcome the described limitation: (1) application of a modern approach to spatial scaling from local processes to broader levels of interaction and (2) plant functional-type modelling. Finally we outline what we believe to be needed in developing these approaches towards a 'science of forecasting'.
Ecologists increasingly use spatial statistics to study vegetation patterns. Mostly, however, these techniques are applied in a purely descriptive fashion without a priori statements on the pattern characteristics expected. We formulated such a priori predictions in a study of spatial pattern in a semi-arid Karoo shrubland, South Africa. Both seed dispersal and root competition have been discussed as processes shaping the spatial structure of this community. If either of the two processes dominates pattern formation, patterns within and between shrub functional groups are expected to show distinct deviations from null models. We predicted the type and scale of these deviations and compared predicted to observed pattern characteristics. As predicted by the seed dispersal hypothesis, small-scale co-occurrence within and between groups of colonisers and successors was increased as compared to complete spatially random arrangement of shrubs. The root competition predictions, however, were not met as shrubs of similar rooting depth co- occurred more frequently than expected under random shrub arrangement. Since the distribution of rooting groups to the given shrub locations also failed to match the root competition predictions, there was little evidence for dominance of root competition in pattern formation. Although other processes may contribute to small-scale plant co-occurrence, the sufficient and most parsimonious explanation for the observed pattern is that its formation was dominated by seed dispersal. To characterise point patterns we applied both cumulative (uni- and bivariate K-function) and local (pair- and mark-correlation function) techniques. Based on our results we recommend that future studies of vegetation patterns include local characteristics as they independently describe a pattern at different scales and can be easily related to processes changing with interplant distance in a predictable fashion.
Shrub encroachment, i.e. the increase in woody plant cover, is a major concern for livestock farming in southern Kalahari savannas. We developed a grid-based computer model simulating the population dynamics of Grewia flava, a common, fleshy-fruited encroaching shrub. In the absence of large herbivores, seeds of Grewia are largely deposited in the sub-canopy of Acacia erioloba. Cattle negate this dispersal limitation by browsing on the foliage of Grewia and dispersing seeds into the grassland matrix. In this study we first show that model predictions of Grewia cover dynamics are realistic by comparing model output with shrub cover estimates obtained from a time series of aerial photographs. Subsequently, we apply a realistic range of intensity of cattle-induced seed dispersal combined with potential precipitation and fire scenarios. Based on the simulation results we suggest that cattle may facilitate shrub encroachment of Grewia. The results show that the severity of shrub encroachment is governed by the intensity of seed dispersal. For a high seed dispersal intensity without fire (equivalent to a high stocking rate) the model predicts 56% shrub cover and 85% cell cover after 100 yr. With fire both recruitment and shrub cover are reduced, which may, under moderate intensities, prevent shrub encroachment. Climate change scenarios with two-fold higher frequencies of drought and wet years intensified shrub encroachment rates, although long-term mean of precipitation remained constant. As a management recommendation we suggest that shrub encroachment on rangelands may be counteracted by frequent fires and controlling cattle movements to areas with a high proportion of fruiting Grewia shrubs
In common garden experiments, a number of genotypes are raised in a common environment in order to quantify the genetic component of phenotypic variation. Common gardens are thus ideally suited for disentangling how genetic and environmental factors contribute to the success of invasive species in their new non-native range. Although common garden experiments are increasingly employed in the study of invasive species, there has been little discussion about how these experiments should be designed for greatest utility. We argue that this has delayed progress in developing a general theory of invasion biology. We suggest a minimum optimal design (MOD) for common garden studies that target the ecological and evolutionary processes leading to phenotypic differentiation between native and invasive ranges. This involves four elements: (A) multiple, strategically sited garden locations, involving at the very least four gardens (2 in the native range and 2 in the invaded range); (B) careful consideration of the genetic design of the experiment; (C) standardization of experimental protocols across all gardens; and (D) care to ensure the biosafety of the experiment. Our understanding of the evolutionary ecology of biological invasions will be greatly enhanced by common garden studies, if and only if they are designed in a more systematic fashion, incorporating at the very least the MOD suggested here.
The long-term persistence of populations and species depends on the successful recruitment of individuals. The generative recruitment of plants may be limited by a lack of suitable germination and establishment conditions. Establishment limitation may especially be caused by the competitive effect of surrounding dense vegetation, which is believed to restrict the recruitment success of many plant species to small open patches ('safe sites'). We conducted experiments to clarify the roles of germination and seedling establishment as limiting processes in the recruitment of Juncus atratus Krock., a rare and threatened herbaceous perennial river corridor plant in Central Europe. Light intensity had a positive effect on germination. However, some seedlings emerged even in total darkness and the germination rate at 1% light intensity was more than half of that at 60% light intensity. Seedling establishment in the field after 10 weeks was 30% on bare ground, but it was close to zero in grassland. Establishment in the growth chamber after 8 weeks was close to 75% for seedlings that germinated underwater, but only about 35% for seedlings that germinated afloat. Furthermore, establishment decreased with flooding duration on bare ground, but increased with flooding duration in grassland. These data indicate that establishment, rather than germination, is a critical life stage in Central European populations off. atratus. They furthermore indicate that the competition of surrounding vegetation for water limits seedling establishment under field conditions without flooding, largely restricting establishment success to bare ground habitats. In contrast, grassland is more suitable for the recruitment off. atratus than bare ground under prolonged flooding. Grassland may facilitate the establishment off. atratus seedlings during long- lasting floods by supplying oxygen to the soil through aerenchyma. The shift from competition to facilitation in grassland occurred after 30 days of flooding, i.e. within the ontogeny of individual plants. The specific recruitment requirements off. arrows may be a main cause of its rarity in modern Central Europe. In order to prevent regional extinction off. atratus, we suggest maintaining or re-establishing natural hydrodynamics in the species' habitats.
2. We present a hierarchical model that integrates observations from multiple sources to estimate spatio-temporal abundance trends. The model links annual population densities on a spatial grid to both long-term count data and to opportunistic occurrence records from a citizen science programme. Specific observation models for both data types explicitly account for differences in data structure and quality.
3. We test this novel method in a virtual study with simulated data and apply it to the estimation of abundance dynamics across the range of a butterfly species (Pyronia tithonus) in Great Britain between 1985 and 2004. The application to simulated and real data demonstrates how the hierarchical model structure accommodates various sources of uncertainty which occur at different stages of the link between observational data and the modelled abundance, thereby it accounts for these uncertainties in the inference of abundance variations.
4. We show that by using hierarchical observation models that integrate different types of commonly available data sources, we can improve the estimates of variation in species abundances across space and time. This will improve our ability to detect regional trends and can also enhance the empirical basis for understanding range dynamics.
Increasing evidence shows that anthropogenic climate change is affecting biodiversity. Reducing or stabilizing greenhouse gas emissions may slow global warming, but past emissions will continue to contribute to further unavoidable warming for more than a century. With obvious signs of difficulties in achieving effective mitigation worldwide in the short term at least, sound scientific predictions of future impacts on biodiversity will be required to guide conservation planning and adaptation. This is especially true in Mediterranean type ecosystems that are projected to be among the most significantly affected by anthropogenic climate change, and show the highest levels of confidence in rainfall projections. Multiple methods are available for projecting the consequences of climate change on the main unit of interest - the species - with each method having strengths and weaknesses. Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly applied for forecasting climate change impacts on species geographic ranges. Aggregation of models for different species allows inferences of impacts on biodiversity, though excluding the effects of species interactions. The modelling approach is based on several further assumptions and projections and should be treated cautiously. In the absence of comparable approaches that address large numbers of species, SDMs remain valuable in estimating the vulnerability of species. In this review we discuss the application of SDMs in predicting the impacts of climate change on biodiversity with special reference to the species-rich South West Australian Floristic Region and South African Cape Floristic Region. We discuss the advantages and challenges in applying SDMs in biodiverse regions with high levels of endemicity, and how a similar biogeographical history in both regions may assist us in understanding their vulnerability to climate change. We suggest how the process of predicting the impacts of climate change on biodiversity with SDMs can be improved and emphasize the role of field monitoring and experiments in validating the predictions of SDMs.
Avian extrapair mating systems provide an interesting model to assess the role of genetic benefits in the evolution of female multiple mating behavior, as potentially confounding nongenetic benefits of extrapair mate choice are seen to be of minor importance. Genetic benefit models of extrapair mating behavior predict that females engage in extrapair copulations with males of higher genetic quality compared to their social mates, thereby improving offspring reproductive value. The most straightforward test of such good genes models of extrapair mating implies pail-wise comparisons of maternal half-siblings raised in the same environment, which permits direct assessment of Paternal genetic effects oil offspring traits. But genetic benefits of mate choice may be difficult to detect. Furthermore, the extent of genetic benefits (in terms of increased offspring viability or fecundity) may depend oil the environmental context Such that the proposed differences between extrapair offspring (EPO) and within-pair offspring (WPO) only appear under comparatively poor environmental conditions. We tested the hypothesis that genetic benefits of female extrapair mate choice are context dependent by analyzing offspring fitness-related traits in the coal tit (Parus ater) in relation to seasonal variation in environmental conditions. Paternal genetic effects on offspring fitness were context dependent. as shown by a significant interaction effect of differential paternal genetic contribution and offspring hatching date. EPO showed a higher local recruitment probability than their maternal half-siblings if born comparatively late in the season (i.e.. when overall performance had significantly declined), while WPO performed better early in the season. The same general pattern of context dependence was evident when using the number of grandchildren born to a cuckolding female via her female WPO or EPO progeny as the respective fitness measure. However, we were unable to demonstrate that cuckolding females obtained a general genetic fitness benefit from extrapair fertilizations in terms of offspring viability or fecundity. Thus, another type of benefit Could be responsible for maintaining female extrapair mating preferences in the study population. Our results suggest that more than a single selective pressure may have shaped the evolution of female extrapair mating behavior in socially monogamous passerines.
Habitat loss poses a severe threat to biodiversity. While many studies yield valuable information on how specific species cope with such environmental modification, the mechanistic understanding of how interacting species or whole communities are affected by habitat loss is still poor. Individual movement plays a crucial role for the space use characteristics of species, since it determines how individuals perceive and use their heterogeneous environment. At the community level, it is therefore essential to include individual movement and how it is influenced by resource sharing into the investigation of consequences of habitat loss. To elucidate the effects of foraging movement on communities in face of habitat loss, we here apply a recently published spatially-explicit and individual-based model of home range formation. This approach allows predicting the individual size distribution (ISD) of mammal communities in simulation landscapes that vary in the amount of suitable habitat. We apply three fundamentally different foraging movement approaches (central place forager (CPF), patrolling forager (PF) and body mass dependent nomadic forager (BNF)). Results show that the efficiency of the different foraging strategies depends on body mass, which again affects community structure in face of habitat loss. CPF is only efficient for small animals, and therefore yields steep ISD exponents on which habitat loss has little effect (due to a movement limitation of body mass). PF and particularly BNF are more efficient for larger animals, resulting in less steep ISDs with higher mass maxima, both showing a threshold behaviour with regard to loss of suitable habitat. These findings represent a new way of explaining observed extinction thresholds, and therefore indicate the importance of individual space use characterized by physiology and behaviour, i.e. foraging movement, for communities and their response to habitat loss. Findings also indicate the necessity to incorporate the crucial role of movement into future conservation efforts of terrestrial communities.
Growing recognition of the importance of long-distance dispersal (LDD) of plant seeds for various ecological and evolutionary processes has led to an upsurge of research into the mechanisms underlying LDD. We summarize these findings by formulating six generalizations stating that LDD is generally more common in open terrestrial landscapes, and is typically driven by large and migratory animals, extreme meteorological phenomena, ocean currents and human transportation, each transporting a variety of seed morphologies. LDD is often associated with unusual behavior of the standard vector inferred from plant dispersal morphology, or mediated by nonstandard vectors. To advance our understanding of LDD, we advocate a vector-based research approach that identifies the significant LDD vectors and quantifies how environmental conditions modify their actions.
The hypothesis that females of socially monogamous species obtain indirect benefits (good or compatible genes) from extra-pair mating behaviour has received enormous attention but much less generally accepted support. Here we ask whether selection for adult survival and fecundity or sexual selection contribute to indirect selection of the extra- pair mating behaviour in socially monogamous coal tits (Periparus ater). We tracked locally recruited individuals with known paternity status through their lives predicting that the extra-pair offspring (EPO) would outperform the within- pair offspring (WPO). No differences between the WPO and EPO recruits were detected in lifespan or age of first reproduction. However, the male WPO had a higher lifetime number of broods and higher lifetime number of social offspring compared with male EPO recruits, while no such differences were evident for female recruits. Male EPO recruits did not compensate for their lower social reproductive success by higher fertilization success within their social pair bonds. Thus, our results do not support the idea that enhanced adult survival, fecundity or within-pair fertilization success are manifestations of the genetic benefits of extra-pair matings. But we emphasize that a crucial fitness component, the extra-pair fertilization success of male recruits, has yet to be taken into account to fully appreciate the fitness consequences of extra-pair matings.
Aim To assess how habitat loss and climate change interact in affecting the range dynamics of species and to quantify how predicted range dynamics depend on demographic properties of species and the severity of environmental change. Location South African Cape Floristic Region. Methods We use data-driven demographic models to assess the impacts of past habitat loss and future climate change on range size, range filing and abundances of eight species of woody plants (Proteaceae). The species-specific models employ a hybrid approach that simulates population dynamics and long-distance dispersal on top of expected spatio-temporal dynamics of suitable habitat. Results Climate change was mainly predicted to reduce range size and range filling (because of a combination of strong habitat shifts with low migration ability). In contrast, habitat loss mostly decreased mean local abundance. For most species and response measures, the combination of habitat loss and climate change had the most severe effect. Yet, this combined effect was mostly smaller than expected from adding or multiplying effects of the individual environmental drivers. This seems to be because climate change shifts suitable habitats to regions less affected by habitat loss. Interspecific variation in range size responses depended mostly on the severity of environmental change, whereas responses in range filling and local abundance depended mostly on demographic properties of species. While most surviving populations concentrated in areas that remain climatically suitable, refugia for multiple species were overestimated by simply overlying habitat models and ignoring demography. Main conclusions Demographic models of range dynamics can simultaneously predict the response of range size, abundance and range filling to multiple drivers of environmental change. Demographic knowledge is particularly needed to predict abundance responses and to identify areas that can serve as biodiversity refugia under climate change. These findings highlight the need for data-driven, demographic assessments in conservation biogeography.
Improving our understanding of biodiversity and ecosystem functioning and our capacity to inform ecosystem management requires an integrated framework for functional biodiversity research (FBR). However, adequate integration among empirical approaches (monitoring and experimental) and modelling has rarely been achieved in FBR. We offer an appraisal of the issues involved and chart a course towards enhanced integration. A major element of this path is the joint orientation towards the continuous refinement of a theoretical framework for FBR that links theory testing and generalization with applied research oriented towards the conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. We further emphasize existing decision-making frameworks as suitable instruments to practically merge these different aims of FBR and bring them into application. This integrated framework requires joint research planning, and should improve communication and stimulate collaboration between modellers and empiricists, thereby overcoming existing reservations and prejudices. The implementation of this integrative research agenda for FBR requires an adaptation in most national and international funding schemes in order to accommodate such joint teams and their more complex structures and data needs.
Fragmentation and loss of habitat are major threats to animal communities and are therefore important to conservation. Due to the complexity of the interplay of spatial effects and community processes, our mechanistic understanding of how communities respond to such landscape changes is still poor. Modelling studies have mostly focused on elucidating the principles of community response to fragmentation and habitat loss at relatively large spatial and temporal scales relevant to metacommunity dynamics. Yet, it has been shown that also small scale processes, like foraging behaviour, space use by individuals and local resource competition are also important factors. However, most studies that consider these smaller scales are designed for single species and are characterized by high model complexity. Hence, they are not easily applicable to ecological communities of interacting individuals. To fill this gap, we apply an allometric model of individual home range formation to investigate the effects of habitat loss and fragmentation on mammal and bird communities, and, in this context, to investigate the role of interspecific competition and individual space use. Results show a similar response of both taxa to habitat loss. Community composition is shifted towards higher frequency of relatively small animals. The exponent and the 95%-quantile of the individual size distribution (ISD, described as a power law distribution) of the emerging communities show threshold behaviour with decreasing habitat area. Fragmentation per se has a similar and strong effect on mammals, but not on birds. The ISDs of bird communities were insensitive to fragmentation at the small scales considered here. These patterns can be explained by competitive release taking place in interacting animal communities, with the exception of bird's buffering response to fragmentation, presumably by adjusting the size of their home ranges. These results reflect consequences of higher mobility of birds compared to mammals of the same size and the importance of considering competitive interaction, particularly for mammal communities, in response to landscape fragmentation. Our allometric approach enables scaling up from individual physiology and foraging behaviour to terrestrial communities, and disentangling the role of individual space use and interspecific competition in controlling the response of mammal and bird communities to landscape changes.
Aim The study and prediction of speciesenvironment relationships is currently mainly based on species distribution models. These purely correlative models neglect spatial population dynamics and assume that species distributions are in equilibrium with their environment. This causes biased estimates of species niches and handicaps forecasts of range dynamics under environmental change. Here we aim to develop an approach that statistically estimates process-based models of range dynamics from data on species distributions and permits a more comprehensive quantification of forecast uncertainties.
Innovation We present an approach for the statistical estimation of process-based dynamic range models (DRMs) that integrate Hutchinson's niche concept with spatial population dynamics. In a hierarchical Bayesian framework the environmental response of demographic rates, local population dynamics and dispersal are estimated conditional upon each other while accounting for various sources of uncertainty. The method thus: (1) jointly infers species niches and spatiotemporal population dynamics from occurrence and abundance data, and (2) provides fully probabilistic forecasts of future range dynamics under environmental change. In a simulation study, we investigate the performance of DRMs for a variety of scenarios that differ in both ecological dynamics and the data used for model estimation.
Main conclusions Our results demonstrate the importance of considering dynamic aspects in the collection and analysis of biodiversity data. In combination with informative data, the presented framework has the potential to markedly improve the quantification of ecological niches, the process-based understanding of range dynamics and the forecasting of species responses to environmental change. It thereby strengthens links between biogeography, population biology and theoretical and applied ecology.