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To achieve the European Union's target for climate neutrality by 2050 reduced energy demand will make the transition process faster and cheaper. The role of policies that support energy efficiency measures and demand-side management practices will be critical and to ensure that energy demand models are relevant to policymakers and other end-users, understanding how to further improve the models and whether they are tailored to user needs to support efficient decision-making processes is crucial. So far though, no scientific studies have examined the key user needs for energy demand modelling in the context of the climate neutrality targets. In this article we address this gap using a multi-method approach based on empirical and desk research. Through survey and stakeholder meetings and workshops we identify user needs of different stakeholder groups, and we highlight the direction in which energy demand models need to be improved to be relevant to their users. Through a detailed review of existing energy demand models, we provide a full understanding of the key characteristics and capabilities of existing tools, and we identify their limitations and gaps. Our findings show that classical demand-related questions remain important to model users, while most of the existing models can answer these questions. Furthermore, we show that some of the user needs related to sectoral demand modelling, dictated by the latest policy developments, are under-researched and are not addressed by existing tools.
A path in an edge-colored graph is rainbow if no two edges of it are colored the same, and the graph is rainbow-connected if there is a rainbow path between each pair of its vertices. The minimum number of colors needed to rainbow-connect a graph G is the rainbow connection number of G, denoted by rc(G).& nbsp;A simple way to rainbow-connect a graph G is to color the edges of a spanning tree with distinct colors and then re-use any of these colors to color the remaining edges of G. This proves that rc(G) <= |V (G)|-1. We ask whether there is a stronger connection between tree-like structures and rainbow coloring than that is implied by the above trivial argument. For instance, is it possible to find an upper bound of t(G)-1 for rc(G), where t(G) is the number of vertices in the largest induced tree of G? The answer turns out to be negative, as there are counter-examples that show that even c .t(G) is not an upper bound for rc(G) for any given constant c.& nbsp;In this work we show that if we consider the forest number f(G), the number of vertices in a maximum induced forest of G, instead of t(G), then surprisingly we do get an upper bound. More specifically, we prove that rc(G) <= f(G) + 2. Our result indicates a stronger connection between rainbow connection and tree-like structures than that was suggested by the simple spanning tree based upper bound.
Objective:
This study aimed to systematically review and meta-analyze the effect of flywheel resistance training (FRT) versus traditional resistance training (TRT) on change of direction (CoD) performance in male athletes.
Methods:
Five databases were screened up to December 2021.
Results:
Seven studies were included. The results indicated a significantly larger effect of FRT compared with TRT (standardized mean difference [SMD] = 0.64). A within-group comparison indicated a significant large effect of FRT on CoD performance (SMD = 1.63). For TRT, a significant moderate effect was observed (SMD = 0.62). FRT of <= 2 sessions/week resulted in a significant large effect (SMD = 1.33), whereas no significant effect was noted for >2 sessions/week. Additionally, a significant large effect of <= 12 FRT sessions (SMD = 1.83) was observed, with no effect of >12 sessions. Regarding TRT, no significant effects of any of the training factors were detected (p > 0.05).
Conclusions:
FRT appears to be more effective than TRT in improving CoD performance in male athletes. Independently computed single training factor analyses for FRT indicated that <= 2 sessions/week resulted in a larger effect on CoD performance than >2 sessions/week. Additionally, a total of <= 12 FRT sessions induced a larger effect than >12 training sessions. Practitioners in sports, in which accelerative and decelerative actions occur in quick succession to change direction, should regularly implement FRT.
We consider an ensemble of phase oscillators in the thermodynamic limit, where it is described by a kinetic equation for the phase distribution density. We propose an Ansatz for the circular moments of the distribution (Kuramoto-Daido order parameters) that allows for an exact truncation at an arbitrary number of modes. In the simplest case of one mode, the Ansatz coincides with that of Ott and Antonsen [Chaos 18, 037113 (2008)]. Dynamics on the extended manifolds facilitate higher-dimensional behavior such as chaos, which we demonstrate with a simulation of a Josephson junction array. The findings are generalized for oscillators with a Cauchy-Lorentzian distribution of natural frequencies.
Populations of globally coupled phase oscillators are described in the thermodynamic limit by kinetic equations for the distribution densities or, equivalently, by infinite hierarchies of equations for the order parameters. Ott and Antonsen [Chaos 18, 037113 (2008)] have found an invariant finite-dimensional subspace on which the dynamics is described by one complex variable per population. For oscillators with Cauchy distributed frequencies or for those driven by Cauchy white noise, this subspace is weakly stable and, thus, describes the asymptotic dynamics. Here, we report on an exact finite-dimensional reduction of the dynamics outside of the Ott-Antonsen subspace. We show that the evolution from generic initial states can be reduced to that of three complex variables, plus a constant function. For identical noise-free oscillators, this reduction corresponds to the Watanabe-Strogatz system of equations [Watanabe and Strogatz, Phys. Rev. Lett. 70, 2391 (1993)]. We discuss how the reduced system can be used to explore the transient dynamics of perturbed ensembles. Published under an exclusive license by AIP Publishing.
Inferring oscillator's phase and amplitude response from a scalar signal exploiting test stimulation
(2022)
The phase sensitivity curve or phase response curve (PRC) quantifies the oscillator's reaction to stimulation at a specific phase and is a primary characteristic of a self-sustained oscillatory unit.
Knowledge of this curve yields a phase dynamics description of the oscillator for arbitrary weak forcing. Similar, though much less studied characteristic, is the amplitude response that can be defined either using an ad hoc approach to amplitude estimation or via the isostable variables.
Here, we discuss the problem of the phase and amplitude response inference from observations using test stimulation. Although PRC determination for noise-free neuronal-like oscillators perturbed by narrow pulses is a well-known task, the general case remains a challenging problem. Even more challenging is the inference of the amplitude response. This characteristic is crucial, e.g. for controlling the amplitude of the collective mode in a network of interacting units-a task relevant to neuroscience. Here, we compare the performance of different techniques suitable for inferring the phase and amplitude response, particularly with application to macroscopic oscillators. We suggest improvements to these techniques, e.g. demonstrating how to obtain the PRC in case of stimuli of arbitrary shape. Our main result is a novel technique denoted by IPID-1, based on the direct reconstruction of the Winfree equation and the analogous first-order equation for isostable dynamics. The technique works for signals with or without well-pronounced marker events and pulses of arbitrary shape; in particular, we consider charge-balanced pulses typical in neuroscience applications. Moreover, this technique is superior for noisy and high-dimensional systems. Additionally, we describe an error measure that can be computed solely from data and complements any inference technique.
An earthquake swarm affected the Bransfield Strait, Antarctica, a unique rift basin in transition from intra-arc rifting to ocean spreading. The swarm, counting similar to 85,000 volcano-tectonic earthquakes since August 2020, is located close to the Orca submarine volcano, previously considered inactive. Simultaneously, geodetic data reported up to similar to 11 cm north-westward displacement over King George Island. We use a broad variety of geophysical data and methods to reveal the complex migration of seismicity, accompanying the intrusion of 0.26-0.56 km(3) of magma. Strike-slip earthquakes mark the intrusion at depth, while shallower normal faulting the similar to 20 km long lateral growth of a dike. Seismicity abruptly decreased after a Mw 6.0 earthquake, suggesting the magmatic dike lost pressure with the slipping of a large fault. A seafloor eruption is likely, but not confirmed by sea surface temperature anomalies. The unrest documents episodic magmatic intrusion in the Bransfield Strait, providing unique insights into active continental rifting.
The James Ross archipelago houses numerous lakes and ponds. In this region, a vast diatom and cyanobacterial variety has been reported; however, the prokaryotic diversity in microbial mats from these lakes remains poorly explored.
Here, a high-throughput sequencing of 16S rRNA gene in microbial mats from Lake Bart-Roja in James Ross Island and lakes Pan Negro and North Pan Negro located in Vega Island was performed. Combined with mineralogical and environmental characteristics, we analyzed the diversity and structure of the microbial communities. Sequences assigned to Archaea were extremely low, while Bacteria domain prevailed with the abundance of Proteobacteria (mostly Betaproteobacteriales) followed by Bacteroidetes, Verrucomicrobia, Firmicutes, and Cyanobacteria.
Local environmental conditions, such as conductivity and Eh, provided differential microbial assemblages that might have implications in the oligotrophic status of the lakes. Consequently, a clear segregation at the family level was observed.
In this sense, the assigned diversity was related to taxa recognized as denitrifiers and sulfur oxidizers. Particularly, in Lake Pan Negro sulfur-reducing and methanogenic representatives were also found and positively correlate with alkalinity and water depth.
Moreover, Deinococcus-Thermus was observed in Lake Bart-Roja, while Melainabacteria (Cyanobacteria)-poorly reported in Antarctic mats-was detected in Lake Pan Negro. Epsilonbacteraeota was exclusively found in this lake, suggesting new potential phylotypes. This study contributes to the understanding of the diversity, composition, and structure of Antarctic benthic microbial ecosystems and provides highly valuable information, which can be used as a proxy to evaluate environmental changes affecting Antarctic microbiota.
We present fully polynomial time approximation schemes for a broad class of Holant problems with complex edge weights, which we call Holant polynomials. We transform these problems into partition functions of abstract combinatorial structures known as polymers in statistical physics. Our method involves establishing zero-free regions for the partition functions of polymer models and using the most significant terms of the cluster expansion to approximate them. Results of our technique include new approximation and sampling algorithms for a diverse class of Holant polynomials in the low-temperature regime (i.e. small external field) and approximation algorithms for general Holant problems with small signature weights. Additionally, we give randomised approximation and sampling algorithms with faster running times for more restrictive classes. Finally, we improve the known zero-free regions for a perfect matching polynomial.
The question if a given partial solution to a problem can be extended reasonably occurs in many algorithmic approaches for optimization problems.
For instance, when enumerating minimal vertex covers of a graph G = (V, E), one usually arrives at the problem to decide for a vertex set U subset of V (pre-solution), if there exists a minimal vertex cover S (i.e., a vertex cover S subset of V such that no proper subset of S is a vertex cover) with U subset of S (minimal extension of U).
We propose a general, partial-order based formulation of such extension problems which allows to model parameterization and approximation aspects of extension, and also highlights relationships between extension tasks for different specific problems.
As examples, we study a number of specific problems which can be expressed and related in this framework. In particular, we discuss extension variants of the problems dominating set and feedback vertex/edge set.
All these problems are shown to be NP-complete even when restricted to bipartite graphs of bounded degree, with the exception of our extension version of feedback edge set on undirected graphs which is shown to be solvable in polynomial time.
For the extension variants of dominating and feedback vertex set, we also show NP-completeness for the restriction to planar graphs of bounded degree.
As non-graph problem, we also study an extension version of the bin packing problem. We further consider the parameterized complexity of all these extension variants, where the parameter is a measure of the pre-solution as defined by our framework.
Purpose:
Soil erosion by water yields sediment to surface reservoirs, reducing their storage capacities, changing their geometry, and degrading water quality. Sediment reuse, i.e., fertilization of agricultural soils with the nutrient-enriched sediment from reservoirs, has been proposed as a recovery strategy. However, the sediment needs to meet certain criteria. In this study, we characterize sediments from the densely dammed semiarid Northeast Brazil by VNIR-SWIR spectroscopy and assess the effect of spectral resolution and spatial scale on the accuracy of N, P, K, C, electrical conductivity, and clay prediction models.
Methods
Sediment was collected in 10 empty reservoirs, and physical and chemical laboratory analyses as well as spectral measurements were performed. The spectra, initially measured at 1 nm spectral resolution, were resampled to 5 and 10 nm, and samples were analysed for both high and low spectral resolution at three spatial scales, namely (1) reservoir, (2) catchment, and (3) regional scale.
Results
Partial least square regressions performed from good to very good in the prediction of clay and electrical conductivity from reservoir (<40 km(2)) to regional (82,500 km(2)) scales. Models for C and N performed satisfactorily at the reservoir scale, but degraded to unsatisfactory at the other scales. Models for P and K were more unstable and performed from unsatisfactorily to satisfactorily at all scales. Coarsening spectral resolution by up to 10 nm only slightly degrades the models' performance, indicating the potential of characterizing sediment from spectral data captured at lower resolutions, such as by hyperspectral satellite sensors.
Conclusion:
By reducing the costly and time-consuming laboratory analyses, the method helps to promote the sediment reuse as a practice of soil and water conservation.
Theme Park Imitations
(2022)
Theme parks frequently draw not only on historical themes, from antiquity to the roaring twenties, but also on their own history – that is, the history of the medium of the theme park itself. This article uses the example of the Happy World ride at Happy Valley Beijing (China) to discuss theme park imitations, that is, the fact that theme parks frequently borrow individual elements (themes, technologies, visuals, layouts, names) and/or entire units (rides, restaurants, themed areas) from each other. Opened in 2014 in the Greek-themed Aegean Harbour section of Happy Valley Beijing, Happy World may upon first sight look like an almost exact copy of Disney’s ‘it’s a small world’ (opened at Disneyland in California in 1966) but turns out to be, upon closer examination, a complex refunctionalization of central elements of ‘it’s a small world’ that establishes meaningful connections between (ancient) Greece and the city of Beijing via the theme of the Olympic Games: drawing on the origins of ‘it’s a small world’ in the 1964–5 New York World’s Fair and the latter’s motto of ‘Peace through Understanding’, Happy World takes visitors on a journey from the ancient Olympiad to contemporary Beijing (the site of the 2008 Summer and the 2022 Winter Olympic Games) to offer a theme park rendition of the 2008 Olympic torch relay as an homage to ‘the spirit [of peace, respect, and friendship] in the people’s [sic] of the world’.
"Orfeo out of Care"
(2022)
The paper focuses on an example of multiple-step reception: the contribution of the classical story of Orpheus and Eurydice and the mediaeval lay Sir Orfeo to Tolkien’s work.
In the first part, I compare the lay with Virgilian and Ovidian versions of Orpheus’ myth. This comparison shows the anonymous author’s deep knowledge of the ancient texts and complex way of rewriting them through stealing and hybridization.
The lay was highly esteemed by Tolkien, who translated it and took inspiration from it while describing the Elven kingdom in The Hobbit and building the storyline of Beren and Lúthien in The Silmarillion. Through this key tale, Orpheus/Orfeo’s romance has a deep influence also on Aragorn and Arwen’s story in The Lord of the Rings. The most important element that Tolkien takes from the Sir Orfeo figuration of the ancient story is undoubtedly the insertion of political theme: the link established between the recovery of the main character’s beloved and the return to royal responsability.
The second part of the paper is, thus, dedicated to the reception of Sir Orfeo and the classical myth in Tolkien. It shows how in his work the different steps of the tradition of Orpheus’ story are co-present, creating an inextricable substrate of inspiration that nourishes his imagination.
Understanding the history and regional singularities of human impact on vegetation is key to developing strategies for sustainable ecosystem management. In this study, fossil and modern pollen datasets from China are employed to investigate temporal changes in pollen composition, analogue quality, and pollen diversity during the Holocene. Anthropogenic disturbance and vegetation's responses are also assessed. Results reveal that pollen assemblages from non-forest communities fail to provide evidence of human impact for the western part of China (annual precipitation less than 400 mm and/or elevation more than 3000 m.a.s.l.), as inferred from the stable quality of modern analogues, principal components, and diversity of species and communities throughout the Holocene. For the eastern part of China, the proportion of fossil pollen spectra with good modern analogues increases from ca. 50% to ca. 80% during the last 2 millennia, indicating an enhanced intensity of anthropogenic disturbance on vegetation. This disturbance has caused the pollen spectra to become taxonomically less diverse over space (reduced abundances of arboreal taxa and increased abundances of herbaceous taxa), highlighting a reduced south-north differentiation and divergence from past vegetation between regions in the eastern part of China. We recommend that care is taken in eastern China when basing the development of ecosystem management strategies on vegetation changes in the region during the last 2000 years, since humans have significantly disturbed the vegetation during this period.
Fighting ISIS in Syria
(2022)
This paper analyses the Operation Euphrates Shield (OES) al-Bab battle and presents the lessons learned. OES started with a mixed force of Free Syrian Army, Turkish special forces and armoured units. During the operation, the aims and the force structure gradually changed, yet not the command structure. When OES aimed to capture al-Bab, ISIS employed conventional active defence strategy. The OES commander's insistence on employing special forces increased own casualties and al-Bab was seized only after resorting to a conventional urban attack. OES presents tactical and operational lessons for the militaries on structure and execution of operations against an irregular adversary employing conventional means.
Objective
While cross-sectional studies underline that child and parent factors in pediatric chronic pain are reciprocally related, so far, little is known on their prospective relationship, especially in treatment contexts. This study aims to analyze directions of influence between child and parental outcomes using data from an intervention study.
Methods
The sample covered 109 families with children aged 7-13 years diagnosed with functional abdominal pain (FAP). Child outcomes included pain and impairment, and parental outcomes covered caregiver-specific distress including both parental personal time burden (i.e., less time available for personal needs) and emotional burden due to child's pain (i.e., increased worries). Cross-lagged panel analyses examined the directions of the relations between child and parental outcomes across time (pretreatment T1, post-treatment T2, and 3-month follow-up and 12-month follow-up T3/T4).
Results
First, a significant improvement over time in all measures was observed. Cross-lagged effects were found for less parental personal time burden at T2, predicting both less pain (beta = -0.254, p = .004) and less impairment (beta = -0.150, p = .039) at T3. Higher baseline pain was predictive for higher parental emotional burden after treatment (beta = -0.130, p = .049) and, reversely, for less emotional burden at 12-month follow-up (beta = 0.261, p = .004).
Conclusions
Addressing parental personal time burden in FAP treatment might possibly support the improvement on the child level. Replication of results in larger samples is warranted to gain more insight into the directions of influence and, in that way, to optimize treatment for pediatric FAP.
In many countries, women are over-represented among low-wage employees, which is why a wage floor could benefit them particularly. Following this notion, we analyse the impact of the German minimum wage introduction in 2015 on the gender wage gap. Germany poses an interesting case study in this context, since it has a rather high gender wage gap and set the minimum wage at a relatively high level, affecting more than four million employees. Based on individual data from the Structure of Earnings Survey, containing information for over one million employees working in 60,000 firms, we use a difference-in-difference framework that exploits regional differences in the bite of the minimum wage. We find a significant negative effect of the minimum wage on the regional gender wage gap. Between 2014 and 2018, the gap at the 10th percentile of the wage distribution was reduced by 4.6 percentage points (or 32%) in regions that were strongly affected by the minimum wage compared to less affected regions. For the gap at the 25th percentile, the effect still amounted to 18%, while for the mean it was smaller (11%) and not particularly robust. We thus find that the minimum wage can indeed reduce gender wage disparities. While the effect is highest for the low-paid, it also reaches up into higher parts of the wage distribution.
Labor market policies, such as training and sanctions, are commonly used to bring workers back to work. By analogy to medical treatments, exposure to these tools can have side effects. We study the effects on health using individual-level population registers on labor market outcomes, drug prescriptions, and sickness absence, comparing outcomes before and after exposure to training and sanctions. Training improves cardiovascular and mental health, and lowers sickness absence. This is likely to be the result of the instantaneous features of participation, such as the adoption of a more rigorous daily routine, rather than improved employment prospects. Benefits sanctions cause a short-run deterioration of mental health.
Drinking is different!
(2022)
Locus of control (LOC) measures how much an individual believes in the causal relationship between her own actions and her life’s outcomes. While earlier literature has shown that an increasing internal LOC is associated with increased health-conscious behavior in domains such as smoking, exercise or diets, we find that drinking seems to be different. Using very informative German panel data, we extend and generalize previous findings and find a significant positive association between having an internal LOC and the probability of occasional and regular drinking for men and women. An increase in an individual’s LOC by one standard deviation increases the probability of occasional or regular drinking on average by 3.4% for men and 6.9% for women. Using a decomposition method, we show that roughly a quarter of this association can be explained by differences in the social activities between internal and external individuals.