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Kalter Frieden
(2018)
Der ausgedehnte Geist
(2018)
Since 2015, the European Union has struggled to deal with the influx of refugees coming into its territories. The number of institutions involved in designing a competent response approach, com-bined with the unilateral and uncoordinated state reactions, have left unclear where to look for when searching for answers and new alternatives. Can the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) take a leading role in solving this and future crises? After a brief recapitulation of the crisis, an analysis of UNHCR’s statue, relationship to international law, and doctrine will put this question to the test while exploring options that are not only available but also feasible in a system where politics trump both legality and morality. If UNHCR is to play an active role in fu-ture refugee policies and become the lead agency it once was, a new daring and innovative approach has to emerge in order to readapt to the power relations that prevail in the twenty-first century.
The formation and breaching of natural dammed lakes have formed the landscapes, especially in seismically active high-mountain regions. Dammed lakes pose both, potential water resources, and hazard in case of dam breaching. Central Asia has mostly arid and semi-arid climates. Rock glaciers already store more water than ice-glaciers in some semi-arid regions of the world, but their distribution and advance mechanisms are still under debate in recent research. Their impact on the water availability in Central Asia will likely increase as temperatures rise and glaciers diminish.
This thesis provides insight to the relative age distribution of selected Kyrgyz and Kazakh rock glaciers and their single lobes derived from lichenometric dating. The size of roughly 8000 different lichen specimens was used to approximate an exposure age of the underlying debris surface. We showed that rock-glacier movement differs signifcantly on small scales. This has several implications for climatic inferences from rock glaciers. First, reactivation of their lobes does not necessarily point to climatic changes, or at least at out-of-equilibrium conditions. Second, the elevations of rock-glacier toes can no longer be considered as general indicators of the limit of sporadic mountain permafrost as they have been used traditionally.
In the mountainous and seismically active region of Central Asia, natural dams, besides rock glaciers, also play a key role in controlling water and sediment infux into river valleys. However, rock glaciers advancing into valleys seem to be capable of infuencing the stream network, to dam rivers, or to impound lakes. This influence has not previously been addressed. We quantitatively explored these controls using a new inventory of 1300 Central Asian rock glaciers. Elevation, potential incoming solar radiation, and the size of rock glaciers and their feeder basins played key roles in predicting dam appearance. Bayesian techniques were used to credibly distinguish between lichen sizes on rock glaciers and their lobes, and to find those parameters of a rock-glacier system that are most credibly expressing the potential to build natural dams.
To place these studies in the region's history of natural dams, a combination of dating of former lake levels and outburst flood modelling addresses the history and possible outburst flood hypotheses of the second largest mountain lake of the world, Issyk Kul in Kyrgyzstan. Megafoods from breached earthen or glacial dams were found to be a likely explanation for some of the lake's highly fluctuating water levels. However, our detailed analysis of candidate lake sediments and outburst-flood deposits also showed that more localised dam breaks to the west of Issyk Kul could have left similar geomorphic and sedimentary evidence in this Central Asian mountain landscape. We thus caution against readily invoking megafloods as the main cause of lake-level drops of Issyk Kul. In summary, this thesis addresses some new pathways for studying rock glaciers and natural dams with several practical implications for studies on mountain permafrost and natural hazards.
Der Brexit
(2018)
Reden ist Silber
(2018)
Dachziegel
(2018)
Aus dem Inhalt:
▪ Auf dem Weg zu einem menschenrechtlichen Schutz vor Abschiebung für Schwerkranke? Anmerkungen zum Paposhvili-Urteil des EGMR
▪ Der EGMR und die Derogation von Menschenrechten – Werden Notstände zu akzeptierten Dauerzuständen in Zeiten des Terrorismus?
▪ EGMR: Wolter und Sarfert ./. Deutschland – Ungleichbehandlung ehelicher und nichtehelicher Kinder im Erbrecht
Business process management is an acknowledged asset for running an organization in a productive and sustainable way. One of the most important aspects of business process management, occurring on a daily basis at all levels, is decision making. In recent years, a number of decision management frameworks have appeared in addition to existing business process management systems. More recently, Decision Model and Notation (DMN) was developed by the OMG consortium with the aim of complementing the widely used Business Process Model and Notation (BPMN). One of the reasons for the emergence of DMN is the increasing interest in the evolving paradigm known as the separation of concerns. This paradigm states that modeling decisions complementary to processes reduces process complexity by externalizing decision logic from process models and importing it into a dedicated decision model. Such an approach increases the agility of model design and execution. This provides organizations with the flexibility to adapt to the ever increasing rapid and dynamic changes in the business ecosystem. The research gap, identified by us, is that the separation of concerns, recommended by DMN, prescribes the externalization of the decision logic of process models in one or more separate decision models, but it does not specify this can be achieved.
The goal of this thesis is to overcome the presented gap by developing a framework for discovering decision models in a semi-automated way from information about existing process decision making. Thus, in this thesis we develop methodologies to extract decision models from: (1) control flow and data of process models that exist in enterprises; and (2) from event logs recorded by enterprise information systems, encapsulating day-to-day operations. Furthermore, we provide an extension of the methodologies to discover decision models from event logs enriched with fuzziness, a tool dealing with partial knowledge of the process execution information. All the proposed techniques are implemented and evaluated in case studies using real-life and synthetic process models and event logs. The evaluation of these case studies shows that the proposed methodologies provide valid and accurate output decision models that can serve as blueprints for executing decisions complementary to process models. Thus, these methodologies have applicability in the real world and they can be used, for example, for compliance checks, among other uses, which could improve the organization's decision making and hence it's overall performance.
The development of self-adaptive software requires the engineering of an adaptation engine that controls the underlying adaptable software by a feedback loop. State-of-the-art approaches prescribe the feedback loop in terms of numbers, how the activities (e.g., monitor, analyze, plan, and execute (MAPE)) and the knowledge are structured to a feedback loop, and the type of knowledge. Moreover, the feedback loop is usually hidden in the implementation or framework and therefore not visible in the architectural design. Additionally, an adaptation engine often employs runtime models that either represent the adaptable software or capture strategic knowledge such as reconfiguration strategies. State-of-the-art approaches do not systematically address the interplay of such runtime models, which would otherwise allow developers to freely design the entire feedback loop.
This thesis presents ExecUtable RuntimE MegAmodels (EUREMA), an integrated model-driven engineering (MDE) solution that rigorously uses models for engineering feedback loops. EUREMA provides a domain-specific modeling language to specify and an interpreter to execute feedback loops. The language allows developers to freely design a feedback loop concerning the activities and runtime models (knowledge) as well as the number of feedback loops. It further supports structuring the feedback loops in the adaptation engine that follows a layered architectural style. Thus, EUREMA makes the feedback loops explicit in the design and enables developers to reason about design decisions.
To address the interplay of runtime models, we propose the concept of a runtime megamodel, which is a runtime model that contains other runtime models as well as activities (e.g., MAPE) working on the contained models. This concept is the underlying principle of EUREMA. The resulting EUREMA (mega)models are kept alive at runtime and they are directly executed by the EUREMA interpreter to run the feedback loops. Interpretation provides the flexibility to dynamically adapt a feedback loop. In this context, EUREMA supports engineering self-adaptive software in which feedback loops run independently or in a coordinated fashion within the same layer as well as on top of each other in different layers of the adaptation engine. Moreover, we consider preliminary means to evolve self-adaptive software by providing a maintenance interface to the adaptation engine.
This thesis discusses in detail EUREMA by applying it to different scenarios such as single, multiple, and stacked feedback loops for self-repairing and self-optimizing the mRUBiS application. Moreover, it investigates the design and expressiveness of EUREMA, reports on experiments with a running system (mRUBiS) and with alternative solutions, and assesses EUREMA with respect to quality attributes such as performance and scalability.
The conducted evaluation provides evidence that EUREMA as an integrated and open MDE approach for engineering self-adaptive software seamlessly integrates the development and runtime environments using the same formalism to specify and execute feedback loops, supports the dynamic adaptation of feedback loops in layered architectures, and achieves an efficient execution of feedback loops by leveraging incrementality.