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Institute
Time for change?
(2022)
Purpose:
This study aims to provide probable future developments in the form of holistic scenarios for business negotiations. In recent years, negotiation research did not put a lot of emphasis on external changes. Consequently, current challenges and trends are scarcely integrated, making it difficult to support negotiation practice perspectively.
Design/methodology/approach:
This paper applies the structured, multi-method approach of scenario analysis. To examine the future space of negotiations, this combines qualitative and quantitative measures to base our analysis on negotiation experts’ assessments, estimations and visions of the negotiation future.
Findings:
The results comprise an overview of five negotiation scenarios in the year 2030 and of their individual drivers. The five revealed scenarios are: digital intelligence, business as usual, powerful network – the route to collaboration, powerful network – the route to predominance and system crash.
Originality/value:
The scenario analysis is a suitable approach that enables to relate various factors of the negotiation environment to negotiations themselves and allows an examination of future changes in buyer–seller negotiations and the creation of possible future scenarios. The identified scenarios provide an orientation for business decisions in the field of negotiation.
The number of alternative suppliers is widely considered to be the most important source of power in supply chains. It is common knowledge that a buying company benefits from an increasing number of suppliers until a marginalization effect occurs. Consequently, a cost-benefit optimum must exist but has not been analyzed in a sufficiently differentiated manner in the literature. Particularly, research has not taken the variety of product groups, which is reflected by the degree of innovation, into account. Using a two-way analysis of variance, this study identifies the cost-benefit optimum for the number of suppliers and analyzes the moderating role of the degree of innovation. The analysis is based on real automotive business-to-business negotiation data. The results reveal that a cost-benefit optimum is reached at a number of three suppliers at the most. Furthermore, the impact of the number of suppliers is higher for innovative products than for more functional products. Purchasing managers can use the findings to determine the optimal size of their supplier choice set.