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Current algorithms for the real-time prediction of the Kp index use a combination of models empirically driven by solar wind measurements at the L1 Lagrange point and historical values of the index. In this study, we explore the limitations of this approach, examining the forecast for short and long lead times using measurements at L1 and Kp time series as input to artificial neural networks. We explore the relative efficiency of the solar wind-based predictions, predictions based on recurrence, and predictions based on persistence. Our modeling results show that for short-term forecasts of approximately half a day, the addition of the historical values of Kp to the measured solar wind values provides a barely noticeable improvement. For a longer-term forecast of more than 2 days, predictions can be made using recurrence only, while solar wind measurements provide very little improvement for a forecast with long horizon times. We also examine predictions for disturbed and quiet geomagnetic activity conditions. Our results show that the paucity of historical measurements of the solar wind for high Kp results in a lower accuracy of predictions during disturbed conditions. Rebalancing of input data can help tailor the predictions for more disturbed conditions.
Inner magnetosphere coupling
(2017)
The dynamics of the inner magnetosphere is strongly governed by the interactions between different plasma populations that are coupled through large-scale electric and magnetic fields, currents, and wave-particle interactions. Inner magnetospheric plasma undergoes self-consistent interactions with global electric and magnetic fields. Waves excited in the inner magnetosphere from unstable particle distributions can provide energy exchange between different particle populations in the inner magnetosphere and affect the ring current and radiation belt dynamics. The ionosphere serves as an energy sink and feeds the magnetosphere back through the cold plasma outflow. The precipitating inner magnetospheric particles influence the ionosphere and upper atmospheric chemistry and affect climate. Satellite measurements and theoretical studies have advanced our understanding of the dynamics of various plasma populations in the inner magnetosphere. However, our knowledge of the coupling processes among the plasmasphere, ring current, radiation belts, global magnetic and electric fields, and plasma waves generated within these systems is still incomplete. This special issue incorporates extended papers presented at the Inner Magnetosphere Coupling III conference held 23–27 March 2015 in Los Angeles, California, USA, and includes modeling and observational contributions addressing interactions within different plasma populations in the inner magnetosphere (plasmasphere, ring current, and radiation belts), coupling between fields and plasma populations, as well as effects of the inner magnetosphere on the ionosphere and atmosphere.