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Uniformly valid confidence intervals post model selection in regression can be constructed based on Post-Selection Inference (PoSI) constants. PoSI constants are minimal for orthogonal design matrices, and can be upper bounded in function of the sparsity of the set of models under consideration, for generic design matrices. In order to improve on these generic sparse upper bounds, we consider design matrices satisfying a Restricted Isometry Property (RIP) condition. We provide a new upper bound on the PoSI constant in this setting. This upper bound is an explicit function of the RIP constant of the design matrix, thereby giving an interpolation between the orthogonal setting and the generic sparse setting. We show that this upper bound is asymptotically optimal in many settings by constructing a matching lower bound.
The inverse problem of determining the flow at the Earth's core-mantle boundary according to an outer core magnetic field and secular variation model has been investigated through a Bayesian formalism. To circumvent the issue arising from the truncated nature of the available fields, we combined two modeling methods. In the first step, we applied a filter on the magnetic field to isolate its large scales by reducing the energy contained in its small scales, we then derived the dynamical equation, referred as filtered frozen flux equation, describing the spatiotemporal evolution of the filtered part of the field. In the second step, we proposed a statistical parametrization of the filtered magnetic field in order to account for both its remaining unresolved scales and its large-scale uncertainties. These two modeling techniques were then included in the Bayesian formulation of the inverse problem. To explore the complex posterior distribution of the velocity field resulting from this development, we numerically implemented an algorithm based on Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. After evaluating our approach on synthetic data and comparing it to previously introduced methods, we applied it to a magnetic field model derived from satellite data for the single epoch 2005.0. We could confirm the existence of specific features already observed in previous studies. In particular, we retrieved the planetary scale eccentric gyre characteristic of flow evaluated under the compressible quasi-geostrophy assumption although this hypothesis was not considered in our study. In addition, through the sampling of the velocity field posterior distribution, we could evaluate the reliability, at any spatial location and at any scale, of the flow we calculated. The flow uncertainties we determined are nevertheless conditioned by the choice of the prior constraints we applied to the velocity field.
We present a new model of the geomagnetic field spanning the last 20 years and called Kalmag. Deriving from the assimilation of CHAMP and Swarm vector field measurements, it separates the different contributions to the observable field through parameterized prior covariance matrices. To make the inverse problem numerically feasible, it has been sequentialized in time through the combination of a Kalman filter and a smoothing algorithm. The model provides reliable estimates of past, present and future mean fields and associated uncertainties. The version presented here is an update of our IGRF candidates; the amount of assimilated data has been doubled and the considered time window has been extended from [2000.5, 2019.74] to [2000.5, 2020.33].
We find necessary conditions for a second order ordinary differential equation to be equivalent to the Painleve III equation under a general point transformation. Their sufficiency is established by reduction to known results for the equations of the form y ' = f (x, y). We consider separately the generic case and the case of reducibility to an autonomous equation. The results are illustrated by the primary resonance equation.
We consider systems of Euler-Lagrange equations with two degrees of freedom and with Lagrangian being quadratic in velocities. For this class of equations the generic case of the equivalence problem is solved with respect to point transformations. Using Lie's infinitesimal method we construct a basis of differential invariants and invariant differentiation operators for such systems. We describe certain types of Lagrangian systems in terms of their invariants. The results are illustrated by several examples.
The two and k-sample tests of equality of the survival distributions against the alternatives including cross-effects of survival functions, proportional and monotone hazard ratios, are given for the right censored data. The asymptotic power against approaching alternatives is investigated. The tests are applied to the well known chemio and radio therapy data of the Gastrointestinal Tumor Study Group. The P-values for both proposed tests are much smaller then in the case of other known tests. Differently from the test of Stablein and Koutrouvelis the new tests can be applied not only for singly but also to randomly censored data.
P>We present a statistical analysis of focal mechanism orientations for nine California fault zones with the goal of quantifying variations of fault zone heterogeneity at seismogenic depths. The focal mechanism data are generated from first motion polarities for earthquakes in the time period 1983-2004, magnitude range 0-5, and depth range 0-15 km. Only mechanisms with good quality solutions are used. We define fault zones using 20 km wide rectangles and use summations of normalized potency tensors to describe the distribution of double-couple orientations for each fault zone. Focal mechanism heterogeneity is quantified using two measures computed from the tensors that relate to the scatter in orientations and rotational asymmetry or skewness of the distribution. We illustrate the use of these quantities by showing relative differences in the focal mechanism heterogeneity characteristics for different fault zones. These differences are shown to relate to properties of the fault zone surface traces such that increased scatter correlates with fault trace complexity and rotational asymmetry correlates with the dominant fault trace azimuth. These correlations indicate a link between the long-term evolution of a fault zone over many earthquake cycles and its seismic behaviour over a 20 yr time period. Analysis of the partitioning of San Jacinto fault zone focal mechanisms into different faulting styles further indicates that heterogeneity is dominantly controlled by structural properties of the fault zone, rather than time or magnitude related properties of the seismicity.
In this short survey article, we showcase a number of non-trivial geometric problems that have recently been resolved by marrying methods from functional calculus and real-variable harmonic analysis. We give a brief description of these methods as well as their interplay. This is a succinct survey that hopes to inspire geometers and analysts alike to study these methods so that they can be further developed to be potentially applied to a broader range of questions.
We consider rough metrics on smooth manifolds and corresponding Laplacians induced by such metrics. We demonstrate that globally continuous heat kernels exist and are Holder continuous locally in space and time. This is done via local parabolic Harnack estimates for weak solutions of operators in divergence form with bounded measurable coefficients in weighted Sobolev spaces.
We prove that the Atiyah–Singer Dirac operator in L2 depends Riesz continuously on L∞ perturbations of complete metrics g on a smooth manifold. The Lipschitz bound for the map depends on bounds on Ricci curvature and its first derivatives as well as a lower bound on injectivity radius. Our proof uses harmonic analysis techniques related to Calderón’s first commutator and the Kato square root problem. We also show perturbation results for more general functions of general Dirac-type operators on vector bundles.
On a smooth complete Riemannian spin manifold with smooth compact boundary, we demonstrate that Atiyah-Singer Dirac operator in depends Riesz continuously on perturbations of local boundary conditions The Lipschitz bound for the map depends on Lipschitz smoothness and ellipticity of and bounds on Ricci curvature and its first derivatives as well as a lower bound on injectivity radius away from a compact neighbourhood of the boundary. More generally, we prove perturbation estimates for functional calculi of elliptic operators on manifolds with local boundary conditions.
The spectral theory of the Friedrichs model on the positive half line with Hilbert-Schmidt perturbations, equipped with distinguished analytic properties, is presented. In general, the (separable) multiplicity Hilbert space is assumed to be infinite-dimensional. The results include a spectral characterization of its resonances and the association of so-called Gamov vectors. Sufficient conditions are presented such that all resonances are simple poles of the scattering matrix. The connection between their residual terms and the associated Gamov vectors is pointed out.
Superselection and constraints occur together in many gauge theories, and here we begin a study of such systems. Our main focus will be to analyze compatibility questions between constraining and superselection, and we will develop an example modelled on QED in which our framework is realized. We proceed from a generalization of Doplicher- Roberts superselection theory to the case of the nontrivial center, and a set of Dirac quantum constraints and find conditions under which the superselection structures will survive constraining in some form. This involves an analysis of the restriction and factorization of superselection structures. (c) 2005 American Institute of Physics
The resonances (poles of the scattering matrix) of quantum mechanical scattering by central-symmetric potentials with compact support and zero angular momentum are spectrally characterized directly in terms of the Hamiltonian by a (generalized) eigenvalue problem distinguished by an additional condition (called boundary condition). The connection between the (generalized) eigenspace of a resonance and corresponding Gamov vectors is pointed out. A condition is presented such that a relation between special transition probabilities and infinite sums of residual terms for all complex-conjugated pairs of resonances can be proved. In the case of the square well potential the condition is satisfied.
Generalized eigenvectors for resonances in the Friedrichs model and their associated Gamov vectors
(2006)
A Gelfand triplet for the Hamiltonian H of the Priedrichs model on R with multiplicity space K, dim K < infinity, is constructed such that exactly the resonances (poles of the inverse of the Livsic-matrix) are (generalized) eigenvalues of H. The corresponding eigen(anti)linear forms are calculated explicitly. Using the wave matrices for the wave (Moller) operators the corresponding eigen(anti)linear forms on the Schwartz space S for the unperturbed Hamiltonian Ho are also calculated. It turns out that they are of pure Dirac type and can be characterized by their corresponding Gamov vector lambda -> k/(zeta(0)-lambda)(-1), zeta(0) resonance, k epsilon K, which is uniquely determined by restriction of S to S boolean AND H-+(2), where H-+(2) denotes the Hardy space of the upper half-plane. Simultaneously this restriction yields a truncation of the generalized evolution to the well-known decay semigroup for t >= 0 of the Toeplitz type on H-+(2). That is: Exactly those pre-Gamov vectors a lambda -> k/(zeta-lambda)(-1), ( from the lower half-plane, k epsilon K., have an extension to a generalized eigenvector of H if zeta is a resonance and if k is from that subspace of K which is uniquely determined by its corresponding Dirac type antilinear form
Fourier transformation of Hilbert C*-systems, with compact groups, by their regular representation
(1995)
The paper presents a classification of the basic types of admissible solutions of the general Friedmann equation with non-vanishing cosmological constant and for the case that radiation and matter do not couple. There are four distinct types. The classification uses first the discriminant of a polynomial of the third degree, closely related to the right hand side of the Friedmann equation. The decisive term is then a critical radiation density which can be calculated explicitly.
In this paper we present duality theory for compact groups in the case when the C*-algebra A, the fixed point algebra of the corresponding Hilbert C*-system (F, 9), has a nontrivial center Z superset of C1 and the relative commutant satisfies the minimality condition A' boolean AND F = Z, as well as a technical condition called regularity. The abstract characterization of the mentioned Hilbert C*-system is expressed by means of an inclusion of C*- categories T-c < T, where T-c is a suitable DR-category and T a full subcategory of the category of endomorphisms of A. Both categories have the same objects and the arrows of T can be generated from the arrows of T-c and the center Z. A crucial new element that appears in the present analysis is an abelian group C(G), which we call the chain group of G, and that can be constructed from certain equivalence relation defined on (G) over cap, the dual object of G. The chain group, which is isomorphic to the character group of the center of g, determines the action of irreducible endomorphisms of A when restricted to Z. Moreover, C(g) encodes the possibility of defining a symmetry epsilon also for the larger category T of the previous inclusion
In this thesis, we give two constructions for Riemannian metrics on Seiberg-Witten moduli spaces. Both these constructions are naturally induced from the L2-metric on the configuration space. The construction of the so called quotient L2-metric is very similar to the one construction of an L2-metric on Yang-Mills moduli spaces as given by Groisser and Parker. To construct a Riemannian metric on the total space of the Seiberg-Witten bundle in a similar way, we define the reduced gauge group as a subgroup of the gauge group. We show, that the quotient of the premoduli space by the reduced gauge group is isomorphic as a U(1)-bundle to the quotient of the premoduli space by the based gauge group. The total space of this new representation of the Seiberg-Witten bundle carries a natural quotient L2-metric, and the bundle projection is a Riemannian submersion with respect to these metrics. We compute explicit formulae for the sectional curvature of the moduli space in terms of Green operators of the elliptic complex associated with a monopole. Further, we construct a Riemannian metric on the cobordism between moduli spaces for different perturbations. The second construction of a Riemannian metric on the moduli space uses a canonical global gauge fixing, which represents the total space of the Seiberg-Witten bundle as a finite dimensional submanifold of the configuration space. We consider the Seiberg-Witten moduli space on a simply connected Käuhler surface. We show that the moduli space (when nonempty) is a complex projective space, if the perturbation does not admit reducible monpoles, and that the moduli space consists of a single point otherwise. The Seiberg-Witten bundle can then be identified with the Hopf fibration. On the complex projective plane with a special Spin-C structure, our Riemannian metrics on the moduli space are Fubini-Study metrics. Correspondingly, the metrics on the total space of the Seiberg-Witten bundle are Berger metrics. We show that the diameter of the moduli space shrinks to 0 when the perturbation approaches the wall of reducible perturbations. Finally we show, that the quotient L2-metric on the Seiberg-Witten moduli space on a Kähler surface is a Kähler metric.
We study two notions of relative differential cohomology, using the model of differential characters. The two notions arise from the two options to construct relative homology, either by cycles of a quotient complex or of a mapping cone complex. We discuss the relation of the two notions of relative differential cohomology to each other. We discuss long exact sequences for both notions, thereby clarifying their relation to absolute differential cohomology. We construct the external and internal product of relative and absolute characters and show that relative differential cohomology is a right module over the absolute differential cohomology ring. Finally we construct fiber integration and transgression for relative differential characters.
We construct new concrete examples of relative differential characters, which we call Cheeger-Chern-Simons characters. They combine the well-known Cheeger-Simons characters with Chern-Simons forms. In the same way as Cheeger-Simons characters generalize Chern-Simons invariants of oriented closed manifolds, Cheeger-Chern-Simons characters generalize Chern-Simons invariants of oriented manifolds with boundary. We study the differential cohomology of compact Lie groups G and their classifying spaces BG. We show that the even degree differential cohomology of BG canonically splits into Cheeger-Simons characters and topologically trivial characters. We discuss the transgression in principal G-bundles and in the universal bundle. We introduce two methods to lift the universal transgression to a differential cohomology valued map. They generalize the Dijkgraaf-Witten correspondence between 3-dimensional Chern-Simons theories and Wess-Zumino-Witten terms to fully extended higher-order Chern-Simons theories. Using these lifts, we also prove two versions of a differential Hopf theorem. Using Cheeger-Chern-Simons characters and transgression, we introduce the notion of differential trivializations of universal characteristic classes. It generalizes well-established notions of differential String classes to arbitrary degree. Specializing to the class , we recover isomorphism classes of geometric string structures on Spin (n) -bundles with connection and the corresponding spin structures on the free loop space. The Cheeger-Chern-Simons character associated with the class together with its transgressions to loop space and higher mapping spaces defines a Chern-Simons theory, extended down to points. Differential String classes provide trivializations of this extended Chern-Simons theory. This setting immediately generalizes to arbitrary degree: for any universal characteristic class of principal G-bundles, we have an associated Cheeger-Chern-Simons character and extended Chern-Simons theory. Differential trivialization classes yield trivializations of this extended Chern-Simons theory.
By adapting the Cheeger-Simons approach to differential cohomology, we establish a notion of differential cohomology with compact support. We show that it is functorial with respect to open embeddings and that it fits into a natural diagram of exact sequences which compare it to compactly supported singular cohomology and differential forms with compact support, in full analogy to ordinary differential cohomology. We prove an excision theorem for differential cohomology using a suitable relative version. Furthermore, we use our model to give an independent proof of Pontryagin duality for differential cohomology recovering a result of [Harvey, Lawson, Zweck - Amer. J. Math. 125 (2003), 791]: On any oriented manifold, ordinary differential cohomology is isomorphic to the smooth Pontryagin dual of compactly supported differential cohomology. For manifolds of finite-type, a similar result is obtained interchanging ordinary with compactly supported differential cohomology.
We study differential cohomology on categories of globally hyperbolic Lorentzian manifolds. The Lorentzian metric allows us to define a natural transformation whose kernel generalizes Maxwell's equations and fits into a restriction of the fundamental exact sequences of differential cohomology. We consider smooth Pontryagin duals of differential cohomology groups, which are subgroups of the character groups. We prove that these groups fit into smooth duals of the fundamental exact sequences of differential cohomology and equip them with a natural presymplectic structure derived from a generalized Maxwell Lagrangian. The resulting presymplectic Abelian groups are quantized using the CCR-functor, which yields a covariant functor from our categories of globally hyperbolic Lorentzian manifolds to the category of C∗-algebras. We prove that this functor satisfies the causality and time-slice axioms of locally covariant quantum field theory, but that it violates the locality axiom. We show that this violation is precisely due to the fact that our functor has topological subfunctors describing the Pontryagin duals of certain singular cohomology groups. As a byproduct, we develop a Fréchet–Lie group structure on differential cohomology groups.
We study the spectral location of a strongly pattern equivariant Hamiltonians arising through configurations on a colored lattice. Roughly speaking, two configurations are "close to each other" if, up to a translation, they "almost coincide" on a large fixed ball. The larger this ball, the more similar they are, and this induces a metric on the space of the corresponding dynamical systems. Our main result states that the map which sends a given configuration into the spectrum of its associated Hamiltonian, is Holder (even Lipschitz) continuous in the usual Hausdorff metric. Specifically, the spectral distance of two Hamiltonians is estimated by the distance of the corresponding dynamical systems.
This work provides a necessary and sufficient condition for a symbolic dynamical system to admit a sequence of periodic approximations in the Hausdorff topology. The key result proved and applied here uses graphs that are called De Bruijn graphs, Rauzy graphs, or Anderson-Putnam complex, depending on the community. Combining this with a previous result, the present work justifies rigorously the accuracy and reliability of algorithmic methods used to compute numerically the spectra of a large class of self-adjoint operators. The so-called Hamiltonians describe the effective dynamic of a quantum particle in aperiodic media. No restrictions on the structure of these operators other than general regularity assumptions are imposed. In particular, nearest-neighbor correlation is not necessary. Examples for the Fibonacci and the Golay-Rudin-Shapiro sequences are explicitly provided illustrating this discussion. While the first sequence has been thoroughly studied by physicists and mathematicians alike, a shroud of mystery still surrounds the latter when it comes to spectral properties. In light of this, the present paper gives a new result here that might help uncovering a solution.
A characterization of the essential spectrum of Schrodinger operators on infinite graphs is derived involving the concept of R-limits. This concept, which was introduced previously for operators on N and Z(d) as "right-limits," captures the behaviour of the operator at infinity. For graphs with sub-exponential growth rate, we show that each point in sigma(ss)(H) corresponds to a bounded generalized eigenfunction of a corresponding R-limit of H. If, additionally, the graph is of uniform sub-exponential growth, also the converse inclusion holds.
LetH be a Schrodinger operator defined on a noncompact Riemannianmanifold Omega, and let W is an element of L-infinity (Omega; R). Suppose that the operator H + W is critical in Omega, and let phi be the corresponding Agmon ground state. We prove that if u is a generalized eigenfunction ofH satisfying vertical bar u vertical bar <= C-phi in Omega for some constant C > 0, then the corresponding eigenvalue is in the spectrum of H. The conclusion also holds true if for some K is an element of Omega the operator H admits a positive solution in (Omega) over bar = Omega \ K, and vertical bar u vertical bar <= C psi in (Omega) over bar for some constant C > 0, where psi is a positive solution of minimal growth in a neighborhood of infinity in Omega. Under natural assumptions, this result holds also in the context of infinite graphs, and Dirichlet forms.
We introduce extensions of stability selection, a method to stabilise variable selection methods introduced by Meinshausen and Buhlmann (J R Stat Soc 72:417-473, 2010). We propose to apply a base selection method repeatedly to random subsamples of observations and subsets of covariates under scrutiny, and to select covariates based on their selection frequency. We analyse the effects and benefits of these extensions. Our analysis generalizes the theoretical results of Meinshausen and Buhlmann (J R Stat Soc 72:417-473, 2010) from the case of half-samples to subsamples of arbitrary size. We study, in a theoretical manner, the effect of taking random covariate subsets using a simplified score model. Finally we validate these extensions on numerical experiments on both synthetic and real datasets, and compare the obtained results in detail to the original stability selection method.
We introduce the class of "smooth rough paths" and study their main properties. Working in a smooth setting allows us to discard sewing arguments and focus on algebraic and geometric aspects. Specifically, a Maurer-Cartan perspective is the key to a purely algebraic form of Lyons' extension theorem, the renormalization of rough paths following up on [Bruned et al.: A rough path perspective on renormalization, J. Funct. Anal. 277(11), 2019], as well as a related notion of "sum of rough paths". We first develop our ideas in a geometric rough path setting, as this best resonates with recent works on signature varieties, as well as with the renormalization of geometric rough paths. We then explore extensions to the quasi-geometric and the more general Hopf algebraic setting.
Being motivated by open questions in gauge field theories, we consider non-standard de Rham cohomology groups for timelike compact and spacelike compact support systems. These cohomology groups are shown to be isomorphic respectively to the usual de Rham cohomology of a spacelike Cauchy surface and its counterpart with compact support. Furthermore, an analog of the usual Poincare duality for de Rham cohomology is shown to hold for the case with non-standard supports as well. We apply these results to find optimal spaces of linear observables for analogs of arbitrary degree k of both the vector potential and the Faraday tensor. The term optimal has to be intended in the following sense: The spaces of linear observables we consider distinguish between different configurations; in addition to that, there are no redundant observables. This last point in particular heavily relies on the analog of Poincare duality for the new cohomology groups. Published by AIP Publishing.
Abelian duality is realized naturally by combining differential cohomology and locally covariant quantum field theory. This leads to a -algebra of observables, which encompasses the simultaneous discretization of both magnetic and electric fluxes. We discuss the assignment of physically well-behaved states on this algebra and the properties of the associated GNS triple. We show that the algebra of observables factorizes as a suitable tensor product of three -algebras: the first factor encodes dynamical information, while the other two capture topological data corresponding to electric and magnetic fluxes. On the former factor and in the case of ultra-static globally hyperbolic spacetimes with compact Cauchy surfaces, we exhibit a state whose two-point correlation function has the same singular structure of a Hadamard state. Specifying suitable counterparts also on the topological factors, we obtain a state for the full theory, ultimately implementing Abelian duality transformations as Hilbert space isomorphisms.
We introduce an abstract concept of quantum field theory on categories fibered in groupoids over the category of spacetimes. This provides us with a general and flexible framework to study quantum field theories defined on spacetimes with extra geometric structures such as bundles, connections and spin structures. Using right Kan extensions, we can assign to any such theory an ordinary quantum field theory defined on the category of spacetimes and we shall clarify under which conditions it satisfies the axioms of locally covariant quantum field theory. The same constructions can be performed in a homotopy theoretic framework by using homotopy right Kan extensions, which allows us to obtain first toy-models of homotopical quantum field theories resembling some aspects of gauge theories.
We consider the problem of propagating an ensemble of solutions and its characterization in terms of its mean and covariance matrix. We propose differential equations that lead to a continuous matrix factorization of the ensemble into a generalized singular value decomposition (SVD). The continuous factorization is applied to ensemble propagation under periodic rescaling (ensemble breeding) and under periodic Kalman analysis steps (ensemble Kalman filter). We also use the continuous matrix factorization to perform a re-orthogonalization of the ensemble after each time-step and apply the resulting modified ensemble propagation algorithm to the ensemble Kalman filter. Results from the Lorenz-96 model indicate that the re-orthogonalization of the ensembles leads to improved filter performance.
Ensemble Kalman filter techniques are widely used to assimilate observations into dynamical models. The phase- space dimension is typically much larger than the number of ensemble members, which leads to inaccurate results in the computed covariance matrices. These inaccuracies can lead, among other things, to spurious long-range correlations, which can be eliminated by Schur-product-based localization techniques. In this article, we propose a new technique for implementing such localization techniques within the class of ensemble transform/square-root Kalman filters. Our approach relies on a continuous embedding of the Kalman filter update for the ensemble members, i.e. we state an ordinary differential equation (ODE) with solutions that, over a unit time interval, are equivalent to the Kalman filter update. The ODE formulation forms a gradient system with the observations as a cost functional. Besides localization, the new ODE ensemble formulation should also find useful application in the context of nonlinear observation operators and observations that arrive continuously in time.
It is well recognized that discontinuous analysis increments of sequential data assimilation systems, such as ensemble Kalman filters, might lead to spurious high-frequency adjustment processes in the model dynamics. Various methods have been devised to spread out the analysis increments continuously over a fixed time interval centred about the analysis time. Among these techniques are nudging and incremental analysis updates (IAU). Here we propose another alternative, which may be viewed as a hybrid of nudging and IAU and which arises naturally from a recently proposed continuous formulation of the ensemble Kalman analysis step. A new slow-fast extension of the popular Lorenz-96 model is introduced to demonstrate the properties of the proposed mollified ensemble Kalman filter.
The ensemble Kalman filter has emerged as a promising filter algorithm for nonlinear differential equations subject to intermittent observations. In this paper, we extend the well-known Kalman-Bucy filter for linear differential equations subject to continous observations to the ensemble setting and nonlinear differential equations. The proposed filter is called the ensemble Kalman-Bucy filter and its performance is demonstrated for a simple mechanical model (Langevin dynamics) subject to incremental observations of its velocity.
We study the dynamics of four wave interactions in a nonlinear quantum chain of oscillators under the "narrow packet" approximation. We determine the set of times for which the evolution of decay processes is essentially specified by quantum effects. Moreover, we highlight the quantum increment of instability.
Change points in time series are perceived as heterogeneities in the statistical or dynamical characteristics of the observations. Unraveling such transitions yields essential information for the understanding of the observed system’s intrinsic evolution and potential external influences. A precise detection of multiple changes is therefore of great importance for various research disciplines, such as environmental sciences, bioinformatics and economics. The primary purpose of the detection approach introduced in this thesis is the investigation of transitions underlying direct or indirect climate observations. In order to develop a diagnostic approach capable to capture such a variety of natural processes, the generic statistical features in terms of central tendency and dispersion are employed in the light of Bayesian inversion. In contrast to established Bayesian approaches to multiple changes, the generic approach proposed in this thesis is not formulated in the framework of specialized partition models of high dimensionality requiring prior specification, but as a robust kernel-based approach of low dimensionality employing least informative prior distributions.
First of all, a local Bayesian inversion approach is developed to robustly infer on the location and the generic patterns of a single transition. The analysis of synthetic time series comprising changes of different observational evidence, data loss and outliers validates the performance, consistency and sensitivity of the inference algorithm. To systematically investigate time series for multiple changes, the Bayesian inversion is extended to a kernel-based inference approach. By introducing basic kernel measures, the weighted kernel inference results are composed into a proxy probability to a posterior distribution of multiple transitions. The detection approach is applied to environmental time series from the Nile river in Aswan and the weather station Tuscaloosa, Alabama comprising documented changes. The method’s performance confirms the approach as a powerful diagnostic tool to decipher multiple changes underlying direct climate observations.
Finally, the kernel-based Bayesian inference approach is used to investigate a set of complex terrigenous dust records interpreted as climate indicators of the African region of the Plio-Pleistocene period. A detailed inference unravels multiple transitions underlying the indirect climate observations, that are interpreted as conjoint changes. The identified conjoint changes coincide with established global climate events. In particular, the two-step transition associated to the establishment of the modern Walker-Circulation contributes to the current discussion about the influence of paleoclimate changes on the environmental conditions in tropical and subtropical Africa at around two million years ago.
Microsaccades
(2015)
The first thing we do upon waking is open our eyes. Rotating them in our eye sockets, we scan our surroundings and collect the information into a picture in our head. Eye movements can be split into saccades and fixational eye movements, which occur when we attempt to fixate our gaze. The latter consists of microsaccades, drift and tremor. Before we even lift our eye lids, eye movements – such as saccades and microsaccades that let the eyes jump from one to another position – have partially been prepared in the brain stem. Saccades and microsaccades are often assumed to be generated by the same mechanisms. But how saccades and microsaccades can be classified according to shape has not yet been reported in a statistical manner. Research has put more effort into the investigations of microsaccades’ properties and generation only since the last decade. Consequently, we are only beginning to understand the dynamic processes governing microsaccadic eye movements. Within this thesis, the dynamics governing the generation of microsaccades is assessed and the development of a model for the underlying processes. Eye movement trajectories from different experiments are used, recorded with a video-based eye tracking technique, and a novel method is proposed for the scale-invariant detection of saccades (events of large amplitude) and microsaccades (events of small amplitude). Using a time-frequency approach, the method is examined with different experiments and validated against simulated data. A shape model is suggested that allows for a simple estimation of saccade- and microsaccade related properties. For sequences of microsaccades, in this thesis a time-dynamic Markov model is proposed, with a memory horizon that changes over time and which can best describe sequences of microsaccades.
Bayesian selection of Markov Models for symbol sequences application to microsaccadic eye movements
(2012)
Complex biological dynamics often generate sequences of discrete events which can be described as a Markov process. The order of the underlying Markovian stochastic process is fundamental for characterizing statistical dependencies within sequences. As an example for this class of biological systems, we investigate the Markov order of sequences of microsaccadic eye movements from human observers. We calculate the integrated likelihood of a given sequence for various orders of the Markov process and use this in a Bayesian framework for statistical inference on the Markov order. Our analysis shows that data from most participants are best explained by a first-order Markov process. This is compatible with recent findings of a statistical coupling of subsequent microsaccade orientations. Our method might prove to be useful for a broad class of biological systems.
Permafrost warming has the potential to amplify global climate change, because when frozen sediments thaw it unlocks soil organic carbon. Yet to date, no globally consistent assessment of permafrost temperature change has been compiled. Here we use a global data set of permafrost temperature time series from the Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost to evaluate temperature change across permafrost regions for the period since the International Polar Year (2007-2009). During the reference decade between 2007 and 2016, ground temperature near the depth of zero annual amplitude in the continuous permafrost zone increased by 0.39 +/- 0.15 degrees C. Over the same period, discontinuous permafrost warmed by 0.20 +/- 0.10 degrees C. Permafrost in mountains warmed by 0.19 +/- 0.05 degrees C and in Antarctica by 0.37 +/- 0.10 degrees C. Globally, permafrost temperature increased by 0.29 +/- 0.12 degrees C. The observed trend follows the Arctic amplification of air temperature increase in the Northern Hemisphere. In the discontinuous zone, however, ground warming occurred due to increased snow thickness while air temperature remained statistically unchanged.
We consider composite-composite testing problems for the expectation in the Gaussian sequence model where the null hypothesis corresponds to a closed convex subset C of R-d. We adopt a minimax point of view and our primary objective is to describe the smallest Euclidean distance between the null and alternative hypotheses such that there is a test with small total error probability. In particular, we focus on the dependence of this distance on the dimension d and variance 1/n giving rise to the minimax separation rate. In this paper we discuss lower and upper bounds on this rate for different smooth and non-smooth choices for C.
We consider statistical hypothesis testing simultaneously over a fairly general, possibly uncountably infinite, set of null hypotheses, under the assumption that a suitable single test (and corresponding p-value) is known for each individual hypothesis. We extend to this setting the notion of false discovery rate (FDR) as a measure of type I error. Our main result studies specific procedures based on the observation of the p-value process. Control of the FDR at a nominal level is ensured either under arbitrary dependence of p-values, or under the assumption that the finite dimensional distributions of the p-value process have positive correlations of a specific type (weak PRDS). Both cases generalize existing results established in the finite setting. Its interest is demonstrated in several non-parametric examples: testing the mean/signal in a Gaussian white noise model, testing the intensity of a Poisson process and testing the c.d.f. of i.i.d. random variables.
We introduce a theoretical framework for performing statistical hypothesis testing simultaneously over a fairly general, possibly uncountably infinite, set of null hypotheses. This extends the standard statistical setting for multiple hypotheses testing, which is restricted to a finite set. This work is motivated by numerous modern applications where the observed signal is modeled by a stochastic process over a continuum. As a measure of type I error, we extend the concept of false discovery rate (FDR) to this setting. The FDR is defined as the average ratio of the measure of two random sets, so that its study presents some challenge and is of some intrinsic mathematical interest. Our main result shows how to use the p-value process to control the FDR at a nominal level, either under arbitrary dependence of p-values, or under the assumption that the finite dimensional distributions of the p-value process have positive correlations of a specific type (weak PRDS). Both cases generalize existing results established in the finite setting, the latter one leading to a less conservative procedure. The interest of this approach is demonstrated in several non-parametric examples: testing the mean/signal in a Gaussian white noise model, testing the intensity of a Poisson process and testing the c.d.f. of i.i.d. random variables. Conceptually, an interesting feature of the setting advocated here is that it focuses directly on the intrinsic hypothesis space associated with a testing model on a random process, without referring to an arbitrary discretization.
In many real-world classification problems, the labels of training examples are randomly corrupted. Most previous theoretical work on classification with label noise assumes that the two classes are separable, that the label noise is independent of the true class label, or that the noise proportions for each class are known. In this work, we give conditions that are necessary and sufficient for the true class-conditional distributions to be identifiable. These conditions are weaker than those analyzed previously, and allow for the classes to be nonseparable and the noise levels to be asymmetric and unknown. The conditions essentially state that a majority of the observed labels are correct and that the true class-conditional distributions are "mutually irreducible," a concept we introduce that limits the similarity of the two distributions. For any label noise problem, there is a unique pair of true class-conditional distributions satisfying the proposed conditions, and we argue that this pair corresponds in a certain sense to maximal denoising of the observed distributions. Our results are facilitated by a connection to "mixture proportion estimation," which is the problem of estimating the maximal proportion of one distribution that is present in another. We establish a novel rate of convergence result for mixture proportion estimation, and apply this to obtain consistency of a discrimination rule based on surrogate loss minimization. Experimental results on benchmark data and a nuclear particle classification problem demonstrate the efficacy of our approach.
For linear inverse problems Y = A mu + zeta, it is classical to recover the unknown signal mu by iterative regularization methods ((mu) over cap,(m) = 0,1, . . .) and halt at a data-dependent iteration tau using some stopping rule, typically based on a discrepancy principle, so that the weak (or prediction) squared-error parallel to A((mu) over cap (()(tau)) - mu)parallel to(2) is controlled. In the context of statistical estimation with stochastic noise zeta, we study oracle adaptation (that is, compared to the best possible stopping iteration) in strong squared- error E[parallel to((mu) over cap (()(tau)) - mu)parallel to(2)]. For a residual-based stopping rule oracle adaptation bounds are established for general spectral regularization methods. The proofs use bias and variance transfer techniques from weak prediction error to strong L-2-error, as well as convexity arguments and concentration bounds for the stochastic part. Adaptive early stopping for the Landweber method is studied in further detail and illustrated numerically.
We consider truncated SVD (or spectral cut-off, projection) estimators for a prototypical statistical inverse problem in dimension D. Since calculating the singular value decomposition (SVD) only for the largest singular values is much less costly than the full SVD, our aim is to select a data-driven truncation level (m) over cap is an element of {1, . . . , D} only based on the knowledge of the first (m) over cap singular values and vectors. We analyse in detail whether sequential early stopping rules of this type can preserve statistical optimality. Information-constrained lower bounds and matching upper bounds for a residual based stopping rule are provided, which give a clear picture in which situation optimal sequential adaptation is feasible. Finally, a hybrid two-step approach is proposed which allows for classical oracle inequalities while considerably reducing numerical complexity.
Finding non-Gaussian components of high-dimensional data is an important preprocessing step for efficient information processing. This article proposes a new linear method to identify the '' non-Gaussian subspace '' within a very general semi-parametric framework. Our proposed method, called NGCA (non-Gaussian component analysis), is based on a linear operator which, to any arbitrary nonlinear (smooth) function, associates a vector belonging to the low dimensional non-Gaussian target subspace, up to an estimation error. By applying this operator to a family of different nonlinear functions, one obtains a family of different vectors lying in a vicinity of the target space. As a final step, the target space itself is estimated by applying PCA to this family of vectors. We show that this procedure is consistent in the sense that the estimaton error tends to zero at a parametric rate, uniformly over the family, Numerical examples demonstrate the usefulness of our method
We prove statistical rates of convergence for kernel-based least squares regression from i.i.d. data using a conjugate gradient (CG) algorithm, where regularization against over-fitting is obtained by early stopping. This method is related to Kernel Partial Least Squares, a regression method that combines supervised dimensionality reduction with least squares projection. Following the setting introduced in earlier related literature, we study so-called "fast convergence rates" depending on the regularity of the target regression function (measured by a source condition in terms of the kernel integral operator) and on the effective dimensionality of the data mapped into the kernel space. We obtain upper bounds, essentially matching known minimax lower bounds, for the L-2 (prediction) norm as well as for the stronger Hilbert norm, if the true regression function belongs to the reproducing kernel Hilbert space. If the latter assumption is not fulfilled, we obtain similar convergence rates for appropriate norms, provided additional unlabeled data are available.
We prove statistical rates of convergence for kernel-based least squares regression from i.i.d. data using a conjugate gradient algorithm, where regularization against overfitting is obtained by early stopping. This method is related to Kernel Partial Least Squares, a regression method that combines supervised dimensionality reduction with least squares projection. Following the setting introduced in earlier related literature, we study so-called "fast convergence rates" depending on the regularity of the target regression function (measured by a source condition in terms of the kernel integral operator) and on the effective dimensionality of the data mapped into the kernel space. We obtain upper bounds, essentially matching known minimax lower bounds, for the L^2 (prediction) norm as well as for the stronger Hilbert norm, if the true
regression function belongs to the reproducing kernel Hilbert space. If the latter assumption is not fulfilled, we obtain similar convergence rates for appropriate norms, provided additional unlabeled data are available.
The authors discuss the use of the discrepancy principle for statistical inverse problems, when the underlying operator is of trace class. Under this assumption the discrepancy principle is well defined, however a plain use of it may occasionally fail and it will yield sub-optimal rates. Therefore, a modification of the discrepancy is introduced, which corrects both of the above deficiencies. For a variety of linear regularization schemes as well as for conjugate gradient iteration it is shown to yield order optimal a priori error bounds under general smoothness assumptions. A posteriori error control is also possible, however at a sub-optimal rate, in general. This study uses and complements previous results for bounded deterministic noise.
The authors discuss the use of the discrepancy principle for statistical inverse problems, when the underlying operator is of trace class. Under this assumption the discrepancy principle is well defined, however a plain use of it may occasionally fail and it will yield sub-optimal rates. Therefore, a modification of the discrepancy is introduced, which takes into account both of the above deficiencies. For a variety of linear regularization schemes as well as for conjugate gradient iteration this modification is shown to yield order optimal a priori error bounds under general smoothness assumptions. A posteriori error control is also possible, however at a sub-optimal rate, in general. This study uses and complements previous results for bounded deterministic noise.
We consider a statistical inverse learning (also called inverse regression) problem, where we observe the image of a function f through a linear operator A at i.i.d. random design points X-i , superposed with an additive noise. The distribution of the design points is unknown and can be very general. We analyze simultaneously the direct (estimation of Af) and the inverse (estimation of f) learning problems. In this general framework, we obtain strong and weak minimax optimal rates of convergence (as the number of observations n grows large) for a large class of spectral regularization methods over regularity classes defined through appropriate source conditions. This improves on or completes previous results obtained in related settings. The optimality of the obtained rates is shown not only in the exponent in n but also in the explicit dependency of the constant factor in the variance of the noise and the radius of the source condition set.
We investigate if kernel regularization methods can achieve minimax convergence rates over a source condition regularity assumption for the target function. These questions have been considered in past literature, but only under specific assumptions about the decay, typically polynomial, of the spectrum of the the kernel mapping covariance operator. In the perspective of distribution-free results, we investigate this issue under much weaker assumption on the eigenvalue decay, allowing for more complex behavior that can reflect different structure of the data at different scales.
We consider a statistical inverse learning problem, where we observe the image of a function f through a linear operator A at i.i.d. random design points X_i, superposed with an additional noise. The distribution of the design points is unknown and can be very general. We analyze simultaneously the direct (estimation of Af) and the inverse (estimation of f) learning problems. In this general framework, we obtain strong and weak minimax optimal rates of convergence (as the number of observations n grows large) for a large class of spectral regularization methods over regularity classes defined through appropriate source conditions. This improves on or completes previous results obtained in related settings. The optimality of the obtained rates is shown not only in the exponent in n but also in the explicit dependence of the constant factor in the variance of the noise and the radius of the source condition set.
We obtain a Bernstein-type inequality for sums of Banach-valued random variables satisfying a weak dependence assumption of general type and under certain smoothness assumptions of the underlying Banach norm. We use this inequality in order to investigate in the asymptotical regime the error upper bounds for the broad family of spectral regularization methods for reproducing kernel decision rules, when trained on a sample coming from a tau-mixing process.
Context. The theoretically studied impact of rapid rotation on stellar evolution needs to be compared with these results of high-resolution spectroscopy-velocimetry observations. Early-type stars present a perfect laboratory for these studies. The prototype A0 star Vega has been extensively monitored in recent years in spectropolarimetry. A weak surface magnetic field was detected, implying that there might be a (still undetected) structured surface. First indications of the presence of small amplitude stellar radial velocity variations have been reported recently, but the confirmation and in-depth study with the highly stabilized spectrograph SOPHIE/OHP was required.
Aims. The goal of this article is to present a thorough analysis of the line profile variations and associated estimators in the early-type standard star Vega (A0) in order to reveal potential activity tracers, exoplanet companions, and stellar oscillations.
Methods. Vega was monitored in quasi-continuous high-resolution echelle spectroscopy with the highly stabilized velocimeter SOPHIE/OHP. A total of 2588 high signal-to-noise spectra was obtained during 34.7 h on five nights (2 to 6 of August 2012) in high-resolution mode at R = 75 000 and covering the visible domain from 3895 6270 angstrom. For each reduced spectrum, least square deconvolved equivalent photospheric profiles were calculated with a T-eff = 9500 and log g = 4.0 spectral line mask. Several methods were applied to study the dynamic behaviour of the profile variations (evolution of radial velocity, bisectors, vspan, 2D profiles, amongst others).
Results. We present the discovery of a spotted stellar surface on an A-type standard star (Vega) with very faint spot amplitudes Delta F/Fc similar to 5 x 10(-4). A rotational modulation of spectral lines with a period of rotation P = 0.68 d has clearly been exhibited, unambiguously confirming the results of previous spectropolarimetric studies. Most of these brightness inhomogeneities seem to be located in lower equatorial latitudes. Either a very thin convective layer can be responsible for magnetic field generation at small amplitudes, or a new mechanism has to be invoked to explain the existence of activity tracing starspots. At this stage it is difficult to disentangle a rotational from a stellar pulsational origin for the existing higher frequency periodic variations.
Conclusions. This first strong evidence that standard A-type stars can show surface structures opens a new field of research and ask about a potential link with the recently discovered weak magnetic field discoveries in this category of stars.
Acyclicity constraints are prevalent in knowledge representation and applications where acyclic data structures such as DAGs and trees play a role. Recently, such constraints have been considered in the satisfiability modulo theories (SMT) framework, and in this paper we carry out an analogous extension to the answer set programming (ASP) paradigm. The resulting formalism, ASP modulo acyclicity, offers a rich set of primitives to express constraints related to recursive structures. In the technical results of the paper, we relate the new generalization with standard ASP by showing (i) how acyclicity extensions translate into normal rules, (ii) how weight constraint programs can be instrumented by acyclicity extensions to capture stability in analogy to unfounded set checking, and (iii) how the gap between supported and stable models is effectively closed in the presence of such an extension. Moreover, we present an efficient implementation of acyclicity constraints by incorporating a respective propagator into the state-of-the-art ASP solver CLASP. The implementation provides a unique combination of traditional unfounded set checking with acyclicity propagation. In the experimental part, we evaluate the interplay of these orthogonal checks by equipping logic programs with supplementary acyclicity constraints. The performance results show that native support for acyclicity constraints is a worthwhile addition, furnishing a complementary modeling construct in ASP itself as well as effective means for translation-based ASP solving.
We study the Ollivier-Ricci curvature of graphs as a function of the chosen idleness. We show that this idleness function is concave and piecewise linear with at most three linear parts, and at most two linear parts in the case of a regular graph. We then apply our result to show that the idleness function of the Cartesian product of two regular graphs is completely determined by the idleness functions of the factors.
Metastability in reversible diffusion processes : I. Sharp asymptotics for capacities and exit times
(2004)
We develop a potential theoretic approach to the problem of metastability for reversible diffusion processes with generators of the form -epsilonDelta+ delF(.) del on R-d or subsets of R-d, where F is a smooth function with finitely many local minima. In analogy to previous work on discrete Markov chains, we show that metastable exit times from the attractive domains of the minima of F can be related, up to multiplicative errors that tend to one as epsilon down arrow 0, to the capacities of suitably constructed sets. We show that these capacities can be computed, again up to multiplicative errors that tend to one, in terms of local characteristics of F at the starting minimum and the relevant saddle points. As a result, we are able to give the first rigorous proof of the classical Eyring - Kramers formula in dimension larger than 1. The estimates on capacities make use of their variational representation and monotonicity properties of Dirichlet forms. The methods developed here are extensions of our earlier work on discrete Markov chains to continuous diffusion processes
Metastability in reversible diffusion processes : II. Precise asymptotics for small eigenvalues
(2005)
We continue the analysis of the problem of metastability for reversible diffusion processes, initiated in [BEGK3], with a precise analysis of the low-lying spectrum of the generator. Recall that we are considering processes with generators of the form -epsilonDelta + delF(.) del on R-d or subsets of Rd, where F is a smooth function with finitely many local minima. Here we consider only the generic situation where the depths of all local minima are different. We show that in general the exponentially small part of the spectrum is given, up to multiplicative errors tending to one, by the eigenvalues of the classical capacity matrix of the array of capacitors made of balls of radius epsilon centered at the positions of the local minima of F. We also get very precise uniform control on the corresponding eigenfunctions. Moreover, these eigenvalues can be identified with the same precision with the inverse mean metastable exit times from each minimum. In [BEGK3] it was proven that these mean times are given, again up to multiplicative errors that tend to one, by the classical Eyring- Kramers formula
This thesis investigates the gradient flow of Dirac-harmonic maps. Dirac-harmonic maps are critical points of an energy functional that is motivated from supersymmetric field theories. The critical points of this energy functional couple the equation for harmonic maps with spinor fields. At present, many analytical properties of Dirac-harmonic maps are known, but a general existence result is still missing. In this thesis the existence question is studied using the evolution equations for a regularized version of Dirac-harmonic maps. Since the energy functional for Dirac-harmonic maps is unbounded from below the method of the gradient flow cannot be applied directly. Thus, we first of all consider a regularization prescription for Dirac-harmonic maps and then study the gradient flow. Chapter 1 gives some background material on harmonic maps/harmonic spinors and summarizes the current known results about Dirac-harmonic maps. Chapter 2 introduces the notion of Dirac-harmonic maps in detail and presents a regularization prescription for Dirac-harmonic maps. In Chapter 3 the evolution equations for regularized Dirac-harmonic maps are introduced. In addition, the evolution of certain energies is discussed. Moreover, the existence of a short-time solution to the evolution equations is established. Chapter 4 analyzes the evolution equations in the case that the domain manifold is a closed curve. Here, the existence of a smooth long-time solution is proven. Moreover, for the regularization being large enough, it is shown that the evolution equations converge to a regularized Dirac-harmonic map. Finally, it is discussed in which sense the regularization can be removed. In Chapter 5 the evolution equations are studied when the domain manifold is a closed Riemmannian spin surface. For the regularization being large enough, the existence of a global weak solution, which is smooth away from finitely many singularities is proven. It is shown that the evolution equations converge weakly to a regularized Dirac-harmonic map. In addition, it is discussed if the regularization can be removed in this case.
In this paper we present a family of supersymmetric Wilson loops of N=4 supersymmetric Yang-Mills theory in Minkowski space. Our examples focus on curves restricted to hyperbolic submanifolds, H-3 and H-2, of space-time. Generically they preserve two supercharges, but in special cases more, including a case which has not been discussed before, of the hyperbolic line, conformal to the straight line and circle, which is 1/2 BPS. We discuss some general properties of these Wilson loops and their string duals and study special examples in more detail. Generically the string duals propagate on a complexification of AdS(5)xS(5) and in some specific examples the compact sphere is effectively replaced by a de Sitter space.