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Changes in land-use are supposed to be among the severest prospective threats to plant diversity worldwide. In semi-natural temperate grasslands, the cessation of traditional land use like livestock grazing is considered to be one of the most important drivers of the diversity loss witnessed within the last decades. Despite of the enormous number of studies on successional pathways following grazing abandonment there is no general pattern of how grassland communities are affected in terms of diversity, trait composition and pace of succession. To gain a comprehensive picture is difficult given the heterogeneity of environments and the time and effort needed for long-term investigations. We here use a proven individual- and trait-based grassland community model to analyze short- and long-term consequences of grazing abandonment under different assumptions of resource availability, pre-abandonment grazing intensity and regional isolation of communities.
Grazing abandonment led to a decrease of plant functional type (PFT) diversity in all but two scenarios in the long-term. In short-term we also found an increase or no change in Shannon diversity for several scenarios. With grazing abandonment we overall found an increase in maximum plant mass, clonal integration and longer lateral spread, a decrease in rosette plant types and in stress tolerant plants, as well as an increase in grazing tolerant and a decrease in grazing avoiding plant types. Observed changes were highly dependent on the regional configuration of communities, prevalent resource conditions and land use intensity before abandonment. While long-term changes took around 10-20 years in resource rich conditions, new equilibria established in resource poor conditions only after 30-40 years.
Our results confirm the potential threats caused by recent land-use changes and the assumption that oligotrophic communities are more resistant than mesotrophic communities also for long-term abandonment. Moreover, results revealed that species-rich systems are not per se more resistant than species-poor grasslands. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Methicillin resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) is one of the most important antibiotic-resistant pathogens in hospitals and the community. Recently, a new generation of MRSA, the so called livestock associated (LA) MRSA, has emerged occupying food producing animals as a new niche. LA-MRSA can be regularly isolated from economically important live-stock species including corresponding meats. The present thesis takes a methodological approach to confirm the hypothesis that LA-MRSA are transmitted along the pork, poultry and beef production chain from animals at farm to meat on consumers` table. Therefore two new concepts were developed, adapted to differing data sets.
A mathematical model of the pig slaughter process was developed which simulates the change in MRSA carcass prevalence during slaughter with special emphasis on identifying critical process steps for MRSA transmission. Based on prevalences as sole input variables the model framework is able to estimate the average value range of both the MRSA elimination and contamination rate of each of the slaughter steps. These rates are then used to set up a Monte Carlo simulation of the slaughter process chain. The model concludes that regardless of the initial extent of MRSA contamination low outcome prevalences ranging between 0.15 and 1.15 % can be achieved among carcasses at the end of slaughter. Thus, the model demonstrates that the standard procedure of pig slaughtering in principle includes process steps with the capacity to limit MRSA cross contamination. Scalding and singeing were identified as critical process steps for a significant reduction of superficial MRSA contamination.
In the course of the German national monitoring program for zoonotic agents MRSA prevalence and typing data are regularly collected covering the key steps of different food production chains. A new statistical approach has been proposed for analyzing this cross sectional set of MRSA data with regard to show potential farm to fork transmission. For this purpose, chi squared statistics was combined with the calculation of the Czekanowski similarity index to compare the distributions of strain specific characteristics between the samples from farm, carcasses after slaughter and meat at retail. The method was implemented on the turkey and veal production chains and the consistently high degrees of similarity which have been revealed between all sample pairs indicate MRSA transmission along the chain.
As the proposed methods are not specific to process chains or pathogens they offer a broad field of application and extend the spectrum of methods for bacterial transmission assessment.