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- Fachgruppe Soziologie (126) (remove)
Citizenship
(2024)
In this visualization, the authors show changes in family patterns by different race groups across two cohorts. Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 (born from 1957 to 1965) and 1997 (born from 1980 to 1984), the authors visualize the relationship-parenthood state distributions at each age between 15 and 35 years by race and cohort. The results suggest the rise of cohabiting mothers and the decline of married and divorced mothers among women born from 1980 to 1984. Black women born from 1980 to 1984 were more likely to experience single/childless and single/parent status compared with Black women born from 1957 to 1965. Although with some visible postponement in the recent cohort, white women in both cohorts were more likely to experience married/parent status than other race groups. The decline in married/parent status across the two generations was sharpest among Hispanic women. These descriptive findings highlight the importance of identifying race when discussing changes in family formation and dissolution trends across generations.
Das Risiko, durch einen Suizid im Gefängnis zu versterben, ist erhöht. Während der COVID-19-Pandemie wurden zum Infektionsschutz zahlreiche Maßnahmen, die beispielsweise eine deutliche Minderung der Kontakt- und Behandlungsangebote zur Folge hatten, eingeführt. Im Rahmen eines Kohortenvergleichs der Suizide und ausgewählter Merkmale der Suizident:innen in den Zeiträumen vom April 2017 bis zum Dezember 2019 sowie vom April 2020 bis zum Dezember 2022 wird untersucht, ob es eine Veränderung der Suizide während der Pandemie gab. Im Ergebnis zeigen sich eine Zunahme der Suizide während der Pandemie, insbesondere in den ersten 14 Tagen der Haft, und eine Zunahme der Suizide von Suizident:innen mit erhöhter Vulnerabilität. Keine Unterschiede wurden in den allgemeinen Risikomerkmalen für Suizide im Gefängnis festgestellt. Es ergeben sich Hinweise auf eine suizidpräventive Wirkung der Kontakt- und Behandlungsangebote. Daraus ergibt sich die Notwendigkeit, intensivere Präventionsangebote für Gefangene mit erhöhter Vulnerabilität bzw. geringerer Resilienz anzubieten.
In 2015, German Chancellor Angela Merkel decided to allow over a million asylum seekers to cross the border into Germany. One key concern was that her decision would signal an open-door policy to aspiring migrants worldwide – thus further increasing migration to Germany and making the country permanently more attractive to irregular and humanitarian migrants. This ‘pull-effect’ hypothesis has been a mainstay of policy discussions ever since. With the continued global rise in forced displacement, not appearing welcoming to migrants has become a guiding principle for the asylum policy of many large receiving countries. In this article, we exploit the unique case study that Merkel's 2015 decision provides for answering the fundamental question of whether welcoming migration policies have sustained effects on migration towards destination countries. We analyze an extensive range of data on migration inflows, migration aspirations and online search interest between 2000 and 2020. The results reject the ‘pull effect’ hypothesis while reaffirming states’ capacity to adapt to changing contexts and regulate migration.
Um Mitarbeitende langfristig ans Unternehmen zu binden und das Engagement in Teams hochzuhalten, fokussieren sich viele Maßnahmen zur Verbesserung des Betriebsklimas oder der Zufriedenheit auf die Motivation der Mitarbeitenden. Meist ist es jedoch lohnenswerter, die Zumutungen der organisationalen Struktur zuerst anzufassen. Häufig liegen dort die größten Motivationskiller - und somit auch die Hebel mit dem größten Potenzial für mehr Zufriedenheit.
The paper argues that economists’ position-taking in discourses of crises should be understood in the light of economists’ positions in the academic field of economics. This hypothesis is investigated by performing a multiple correspondence analysis (MCA) on a prosopographical data set of 144 French economists who positioned themselves between 2008 and 2021 in controversies over the euro crisis, the French political economic model, and French economics. In these disciplinary controversies, different forms of (post-)national academic capital are used by economists to either initiate change or defend the status quo. These strategies are then interpreted as part of more general power struggles over the basic national or post-national constitution and legitimate governance of economy and society.
Background
Many high-income countries are grappling with severe labour shortages in the healthcare sector. Refugees and recent migrants present a potential pool for staff recruitment due to their higher unemployment rates, younger age, and lower average educational attainment compared to the host society's labour force. Despite this, refugees and recent migrants, often possessing limited language skills in the destination country, are frequently excluded from traditional recruitment campaigns conducted solely in the host country’s language. Even those with intermediate language skills may feel excluded, as destination-country language advertisements are perceived as targeting only native speakers. This study experimentally assesses the effectiveness of a recruitment campaign for nursing positions in a German care facility, specifically targeting Arabic and Ukrainian speakers through Facebook advertisements.
Methods
We employ an experimental design (AB test) approximating a randomized controlled trial, utilizing Facebook as the delivery platform. We compare job advertisements for nursing positions in the native languages of Arabic and Ukrainian speakers (treatment) with the same advertisements displayed in German (control) for the same target group in the context of a real recruitment campaign for nursing jobs in Berlin, Germany. Our evaluation includes comparing link click rates, visits to the recruitment website, initiated applications, and completed applications, along with the unit cost of these indicators. We assess statistical significance in group differences using the Chi-squared test.
Results
We find that recruitment efforts in the origin language were 5.6 times (Arabic speakers) and 1.9 times (Ukrainian speakers) more effective in initiating nursing job applications compared to the standard model of German-only advertisements among recent migrants and refugees. Overall, targeting refugees and recent migrants was 2.4 (Ukrainians) and 10.8 (Arabic) times cheaper than targeting the reference group of German speakers indicating higher interest among these groups.
Conclusions
The results underscore the substantial benefits for employers in utilizing targeted recruitment via social media aimed at foreign-language communities within the country. This strategy, which is low-cost and low effort compared to recruiting abroad or investing in digitalization, has the potential for broad applicability in numerous high-income countries with sizable migrant communities. Increased employment rates among underemployed refugee and migrant communities, in turn, contribute to reducing poverty, social exclusion, public expenditure, and foster greater acceptance of newcomers within the receiving society.
Wir nehmen eine vergleichende Untersuchung der Nominierten und Preisträger:innen von sieben Buchpreisen im deutschsprachigen Raum vor, die mit einer vorab veröffentlichten Long- und/oder Shortlist arbeiten. Dazu vergleichen wir die Preise in Bezug auf soziodemographische Faktoren der Autor:innen (Geschlecht, Alter und Muttersprache), deren Bekanntheit zum Zeitpunkt der Nominierung (Aufrufe auf Wikipedia), die Anzahl vorheriger Nominierungen der Autor:innen für den gleichen Buchpreis, die ›Qualität‹ der ausgezeichneten Bücher (Anzahl der Rezensionen des nominierten Buches, positive bzw. negative Beurteilung in Rezensionen sowie die Einigkeit der Rezensent:innen darüber), das Ansehen der Verlage und die Geschlechterzusammensetzung der Jurys. Der Analysezeitraum umfasst 15 Jahre. Unser Datensatz beinhaltet Informationen zu 428 Autor:innen mit insgesamt 627 zwischen den Jahren 2005 und 2020 nominierten Büchern und 2.469 Rezensionen zu diesen Büchern. Der Datensatz wurde mittels mehrerer Methoden (z. B. Web-Scraping, Hand-Kodierung, Expert:innenbewertungen) aus verschiedenen Quellen (z. B. Web-Daten, Bibliothekskataloge, Expert:innenbewertungen) zusammengestellt. Auf diese Weise können wir unter anderem zeigen, dass für alle untersuchten Preise überwiegend deutsche Muttersprachler:innen mit gut rezensierten Büchern aus renommierten Verlagen nominiert werden und die Preise gewinnen.
Organizational commitments to equality change how people view women’s and men’s professional success
(2024)
To address women’s underrepresentation in high-status positions, many organizations have committed to gender equality. But is women’s professional success viewed less positively when organizations commit to women’s advancement? Do equality commitments have positive effects on evaluations of successful men? We fielded a survey experiment with a national probability sample in Germany (N = 3229) that varied employees’ gender and their organization’s commitment to equality. Respondents read about a recently promoted employee and rated how decisive of a role they thought intelligence and effort played in getting the employee promoted from 1 “Not at all decisive” to 7 “Very decisive” and the fairness of the promotion from 1 “Very unfair” to 7 “Very fair.” When organizations committed to women’s advancement rather than uniform performance standards, people believed intelligence and effort were less decisive in women’s promotions, but that intelligence was more decisive in men’s promotions. People viewed women’s promotions as least fair and men’s as most fair in organizations committed to women’s advancement. However, women’s promotions were still viewed more positively than men’s in all conditions and on all outcomes, suggesting people believed that organizations had double standards for success that required women to be smarter and work harder to be promoted, especially in organizations that did not make equality commitments.
Money matters!
(2024)
This paper examines the context dependency of attitudes toward maternal employment. We test three sets of factors that may affect these attitudes—economic benefits, normative obligations, and child-related consequences—by analyzing data from a unique survey experimental design implemented in a large-scale household panel survey in Germany (17,388 observations from 3,494 respondents). Our results show that the economic benefits associated with maternal employment are the most important predictor of attitudes supporting maternal employment. Moreover, we find that attitudes toward maternal employment vary by individual, household, and contextual characteristics (in particular, childcare quality). We interpret this variation as an indication that negative attitudes toward maternal employment do not necessarily reflect gender essentialism; rather, gender role attitudes are contingent upon the frames individuals have in mind.
A review of all research papers published in the European Sociological Review in 2016 and 2017 (N = 118) shows that only a minority of papers clearly define the parameter of interest and provide sufficient reasoning for the selected control variables of the statistical analysis. Thus, the vast majority of papers does not reach minimal standards for the selection of control variables. Consequently, a majority of papers interpret biased coefficients, or statistics without proper sociological meaning. We postulate that authors and reviewers should be more careful about control variable selection. We propose graphical causal models in the form of directed acyclic graphs as an example for a parsimonious and powerful means to that end.
Soziale Schließung
(2023)
Web scraping, a technique for extracting data from web pages, has been in use for decades, yet its utilization in the field of migration, mobility, and migrant integration studies has been limited. The field faces notorious limitations regarding data access and availability, particularly in low-income settings. Web scraping has the potential to provide new datasets for further qualitative and quantitative analysis. Web scraping requires no financial resources, is agnostic to epistemic divides in the field, reduces researcher bias, and increases transparency and replicability of data collection. As large providers of digital data such as Facebook or Twitter increasingly restrict access to their data for researchers, web scraping will become more important in the future and deserves its place in the toolbox of migration and mobility scholars. This short and nontechnical methods note introduces the fundamental concepts of web scraping, provides guidance on how to learn the technique, showcases practical applications of web scraping in the study of migrant populations, and discusses potential future use cases.
Ausgehend von Bourdieus Kapitaltheorie diskutieren wir in diesem Beitrag, inwiefern ökonomisch verwertbare personenbezogene Daten als Fundament einer eigenständigen Form eines neuen digitalen Kapitals gesehen werden können. Als wertvolles und umkämpftes Gut entfaltet es in spezifischen Feldern eine soziale Wirkmächtigkeit und spiegelt sich in den Reproduktionsstrategien von Akteur*innen und korrespondierenden Ungleichheitsstrukturen.
Im Zentrum dieser Forschungsnotiz steht die Frage nach der Bewertung von Einkommensungleichheit in der österreichischen Gegenwartsgesellschaft. Anhand von ISSP- und SSÖ-Daten können unsere Analysen diesbezüglich zeigen, dass Einkommensungleichheit von einer großen Mehrheit aktuell als zu hoch wahrgenommen wird. Zudem sehen die Menschen in Österreich sehr häufig den Staat in der Verantwortung Einkommensungleichheit abzubauen; viel häufiger als das in anderen europäischen Ländern der Fall ist. Während der Bereich Gesundheit und Pension seit Mitte der 1980er von der überwiegenden Mehrheit als staatliche Aufgabe gesehen wurde, liegt die Verantwortung für den Abbau von Einkommensungleichheit auf einem niedrigeren Zustimmungsniveau. Die Befürwortung der Absicherung von Arbeitslosen als Verantwortung des Staats nimmt aktuell eher ab, trotz der gestiegenen Arbeitslosigkeit zu Beginn der Pandemie. Schließlich zeigen unsere Regressionsanalysen, dass Unterschiede in der Beurteilung von Einkommensungleichheiten u. a. durch sozio-demographische Faktoren, die berufliche Stellung, das Haushaltseinkommen aber auch durch persönliche Einstellungen und Gerechtigkeitsüberzeugungen erklärt werden können.
A growing number of studies have recently postulated a so-called local turn in the study of immigrant and refugee integration policy. A fundamental, yet untested, assumption of this body of research is that local (sub-national) policies and administrations shape how migrants and refugees integrate into society. We develop and apply an analytical model using multilevel modeling techniques based on large-N, longitudinal survey data (N > 9000) with refugees (2012–2018) in a highly decentralized country (Germany) to estimate the scope for local policy effects net of individual-level and state- and district-level characteristics. We show that region and district-level variation in integration outcomes across multiple dimensions (employment, education, language, housing, social) is limited (∼5%) within 4–8 years after immigration. We find modest variation in policy indicators (∼10%), which do not appear to directly translate into outcomes. We discuss implications for the study of local policies and the potential for greater convergence between administrative and political science, interested in governance structures and policy variation, and sociology and economics, interested primarily in integration outcomes.
Taxed fairly?
(2023)
Empirically, the poor are more likely to support increases in the level of tax progressivity than the rich. Such income-stratified tax preferences can result from differences in preferences of what should be taxed as argued by previous literature. However, it may also result from income-stratified perceptions of what is taxed. This paper argues that the rich perceive higher levels of tax progressivity than the poor and that tax perceptions affect individuals’ support for progressive taxation. Using data from an Austrian survey experiment, we test this argument in three steps: First, in line with past research, we show that individuals’ income positions are connected to individuals’ tax preferences as a self-interest rationale would predict. However, second, we show that this variation is mainly driven by income-stratified tax perceptions. Third, randomly informing a subset of the sample about actual tax rates, we find that changing tax perceptions causally affects support for redistributive taxation among those who initially overestimated the level of tax progressivity. Our results indicate that tax perceptions are relevant for forming tax preferences and suggest that individuals are more polarized in their perceptions of who pays how much taxes than in their support for who should pay how much tax.
A circulatory loop
(2023)
In the digitalization debate, gender biases in digital technologies play a significant role because of their potential for social exclusion and inequality. It is therefore remarkable that organizations as drivers of digitalization and as places for social integration have been widely overlooked so far. Simultaneously, gender biases and digitalization have structurally immanent connections to organizations. Therefore, a look at the reciprocal relationship between organizations, digitalization, and gender is needed. The article provides answers to the question of whether and how organizations (re)produce, reinforce, or diminish gender‐specific inequalities during their digital transformations. On the one hand, gender inequalities emerge when organizations use post‐bureaucratic concepts through digitalization. On the other hand, gender inequalities are reproduced when organizations either program or implement digital technologies and fail to establish control structures that prevent gender biases. This article shows that digitalization can act as a catalyst for inequality‐producing mechanisms, but also has the potential to mitigate inequalities. We argue that organizations must be considered when discussing the potential of exclusion through digitalization.
New work – old problem?
(2023)
Die Nutzung digitaler Kollaborationstools wird als Vorausset-
zung für eine postbürokratische New Work-Welt erachtet. Organisationale Digita-
lisierungsprojekte zur Einführung solcher Kollaborationssoftware sind selbst post-
bürokratisch strukturiert, d. h. sie arbeiten in crossfunktionalen und selbstorgani-
sierten Teams. Während der Kooperation mit anderen Organisationseinheiten treten
Konflikte auf, die sich dadurch verschärfen, dass sie nicht von der Hierarchie ge-
löst werden können, sondern im Sinne von New Work demokratisch ausgehandelt
werden müssen. In der Folge bedarf es alternativer formaler Strukturen, die diese
Herausforderung bewältigen.
In the context of persistent images of self-perpetuated technologies, we discuss the interplay of digital technologies and organisational dynamics against the backdrop of systems theory. Building on the case of an international corporation that, during an agile reorganisation, introduced an AI-based personnel management platform, we show how technical systems produce a form of algorithmic contingency that subsequently leads to the emergence of formal and informal interaction systems. Using the concept of datafication, we explain how these interactions are barriers to the self-perpetuation of data-based decision-making, making it possible to take into consideration further decision factors and complementing the output of the platform. The research was carried out within the scope of the research project ‘Organisational Implications of Digitalisation: The Development of (Post-)Bureaucratic Organisational Structures in the Context of Digital Transformation’ funded by the German Research Foundation (DFG).
Background: Following the rapid increase of asylum seekers arriving in the European Union in 2015/16, policymakers have invested heavily in improving their foresight and forecasting capabilities. A common method to elicit expert predictions are Delphi surveys. This approach has attracted concern in the literature, given the high uncertainty in experts’ predictions. However, there exists limited guidance on specific design choices for future-related Delphi surveys.
Objective: We test whether or not small adjustments to the Delphi survey can increase certainty (i.e., reduce variation) in expert predictions on immigration to the EU in 2030.
Methods: Based on a two-round Delphi survey with 178 migration experts, we compare variation and subjective confidence in expert predictions and assess whether additional context information (type of migration flow, sociopolitical context) promotes convergence among experts (i.e., less variation) and confidence in their own estimates.
Results: We find that additional context information does not reduce variation and does not increase confidence in expert predictions on migration.
Conclusions: The results reaffirm recent concerns regarding the limited scope for reducing uncertainty by manipulating the survey setup. Persistent uncertainty may be a result of the complexity of migration processes and limited agreement among migration experts regarding key drivers.
Contribution: We caution policymakers and academics on the use of Delphi surveys for eliciting expert predictions on immigration, even when conducted based on a large pool of experts and using specific scenarios. The potential of alternative approaches such as prediction markets should be further explored.
Organization not found
(2023)
Der Beitrag in der Zeitschrift GIO beschäftigt sich mit der Frage nach den Schwierigkeiten von Digitalisierungsreformen in öffentlichen Verwaltungen. Der Blick wird dafür auf Verwaltungen als Organisationen gerichtet, deren formale Strukturen die Digitalisierungsreform erschweren, da steile Hierarchien und Dienstwegeregelungen mit netzwerkartigen Projektstrukturen konfligieren, agile Arbeitsweisen der Orientierung an rechtlich legitimierten Verfahren zuwiderlaufen und das Personal nicht mit den nötigen Kompetenzen ausgestattet wird. Der organisationssensible Fokus erlaubt es, nicht nur die Probleme der Strukturen zu betrachten, sondern auch deren Funktionen für den Systembestand von Verwaltungen zu berücksichtigen. So wird gezeigt, dass etwa Dienstwegeregelungen demokratische Prozesse gewährleisten und Verantwortungsdiffusion verhindern, ihre Rechtsorientierung den Verwaltungen Legitimation und Autonomie verschafft und das Personal durch seine Regeleinhaltung funktionierende Verfahren und Objektivität gewährleistet. Diese Spannungsfelder berücksichtigend, wird daher der Vorschlag gemacht, in Reformen nicht nur ihre Optimierungsfunktion zu sehen, sondern sie als Werkzeug für ein besseres Verständnis der vorherrschenden Strukturen zu nutzen. Der Beitrag gibt abschließend Fragen an die Hand, wie man sich diesem Verständnis nähern kann.
Der Beteiligungsimperativ
(2023)
Spätestens seit den 1990-er Jahren erscheint der Begriff Beteiligung in diversen gesellschaftlichen Bereichen als allgemein anerkannter Imperativ, der von unterschiedlichen Akteur*innen als Allheilmittel angepriesen wird. Doch wenn Beteiligung proklamiert wird, bedeutet das mitnichten eine Garantie für gesellschaftliche Teilhabe. Mit Hilfe einer dispositivanalytischen Untersuchung von top-down Beteiligungsmaßnahmen in der Berliner Quartiersentwicklung zeigt Magdalena Otto, wie der Begriff Beteiligung verschiedenartig anschlussfähig ist und dadurch eine kaum hinterfragte Legitimationskraft ausstrahlt. Im Zentrum der hier entwickelten Theorie über den Beteiligungsimperativ steht die Rekonstruktion von vier idealtypisch zu verstehenden Deutungsmustern zur Legitimation von Beteiligungsmaßnahmen sowie ihre intendierten und unbeabsichtigten Folgen. Der konstatierte Beteiligungsimperativ zeigt sich dabei als eine auf Aktivierung setzende, neoliberale Gouvernementalität in Reaktion auf städtische Segregations- und Marginalisierungsprozesse, die Krise des Kommunalstaats und damit einhergehende veränderte Steuerungserfordernisse für Regierungshandeln.
The article analyzes the investigations conducted by the Berlin police into the subsequent perpetrator of the vehicle-ramming attack at a Berlin Christmas market on December 19, 2016. We explore why the police closed these investigations prematurely and thereby focus on an attempt to prevent lone actor terrorism. The analysis shows that the police closed its investigations owing to organizational dynamics driven by an increasing need to justify further resource investments in the face of absent conclusive evidence and scarce resources in relation to the organizational case ecology. We propose hypotheses for future research and formulate three contributions to existing research on the sociology of police, terrorism prevention, and lone actor research.
Der Sinn des Lebens
(2023)
Political trust—in terms of trust in political institutions—is an important precondition for the functioning and stability of democracy. One widely studied determinant of political trust is income inequality. While the empirical finding that societies with lower levels of income inequality have higher levels of trust is well established, the exact ways in which income inequality affects political trust remain unclear. Past research has shown that individuals oftentimes have biased perceptions of inequality. Considering potentially biased inequality perceptions, I argue that individuals compare their perceptions of inequality to their preference for inequality. If they identify a gap between what they perceive and what they prefer (= fairness gap), they consider their attitudes towards inequality unrepresented. This, in turn, reduces trust in political institutions. Using three waves of the ESS and the ISSP in a cross-country perspective, I find that (1) perceiving a larger fairness gap is associated with lower levels of political trust; (2) the fairness gap mediates the link between actual inequality and political trust; and (3) disaggregating the fairness gap measure, political trust is more strongly linked to variation in inequality perceptions than to variation in inequality preferences. This indicates that inequality perceptions are an important factor shaping trust into political institutions.
Living alone in the city
(2023)
Over the past decades, the number of single households is constantly rising in metropolitan regions. In addition, they became increasingly heterogeneous. In the media, individuals who live alone are sometimes still presented as deficient. Recent research, however, indicates a way more complex picture. Using the example of Vienna, this paper investigates the quality of life of different groups of single households in the city. Based on five waves of the Viennese Quality of Life Survey covering almost a quarter of a century (1995–2018), we analyse six domains of subjective well-being (satisfaction with the financial situation, the housing situation, the main activity, the family life, social contacts, and leisure time activities). Our analyses reveal that, in most domains, average satisfaction of single households has hardly changed over time. However, among those living alone satisfaction of senior people (60+) increased while satisfaction of younger people (below age 30) decreased. Increasing differences in satisfaction with main activity, housing, or financial situation reflect general societal developments on the Viennese labour and housing markets. The old clichéd images of the “young, reckless, happy single” and the “lonely, poor, dissatisfied senior single” reverse reality.
Im Vergleich zu Umfragen an Wahrscheinlichkeitsstichproben bieten Umfragen an Access-Panels, die auf Nicht-Wahrscheinlichkeitsstichproben basieren, unbestreitbare wirtschaftliche Vorteile. Diese Vorteile gehen jedoch mit unvermeidbaren Qualitätseinbußen einher, die auch dann bestehen bleiben, wenn Erstere sehr niedrige Responseraten haben. Daher müssen die wirtschaftlichen Vorteile und die methodischen Einschränkungen gegeneinander abgewogen werden. Es wird argumentiert, dass diese Abwägung anhand normativer Festlegungen erfolgen muss. Unter Anwendung der hier vorgeschlagenen Maßstäbe kommt der Beitrag zu dem Schluss, dass die Qualitätsansprüche an über Massenmedien verbreitete Meinungsumfragen höher sein sollten als für rein (sozial)wissenschaftliche Zwecke.
Pulp Science?
(2023)
The long term relationship between Medicaid expansion and adult life-threatening chronic conditions
(2023)
We test whether the expansions of children's Medicaid eligibility in the 1980s–1990s resulted in long-term health benefits in terms of severe chronic conditions. Still relatively rare in the field, we use prospective individual-level panel data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) along with the higher quality income measures from the Cross-National Equivalent File (adjusting for taxes, transfers and household size). We observe severe chronic conditions (high blood pressure/heart disease, cancer, diabetes, or lung disease) at ages 30–56 (average age 43.1) for 4670 respondents who were also prospectively observed during childhood (i.e., at ages 0–17). Our analysis exploits within-region temporal variation in childhood Medicaid eligibility and adjusts for state- and individual-level controls. We uniquely concentrate attention on adjusting for childhood income. A standard deviation greater childhood Medicaid eligibility significantly reduces the probability of severe chronic conditions in adulthood by 0.05 to 0.12 (16%–37.5% reduction from mean 0.32). Across the range of observed childhood Medicaid eligibility, the probability is approximately cut in half. Greater childhood Medicaid eligibility also substantially reduces childhood income disparities in severe chronic conditions. At higher levels of childhood Medicaid eligibility, we find no significant childhood income disparities in adult severe chronic conditions.
State- and private-led search-and-rescue are hypothesized to foster irregular migration (and thereby migrant fatalities) by altering the decision calculus associated with the journey. We here investigate this ‘pull factor’ claim by focusing on the Central Mediterranean route, the most frequented and deadly irregular migration route towards Europe during the past decade. Based on three intervention periods—(1) state-led Mare Nostrum, (2) private-led search-and-rescue, and (3) coordinated pushbacks by the Libyan Coast Guard—which correspond to substantial changes in laws, policies, and practices of search-and-rescue in the Mediterranean, we are able to test the ‘pull factor’ claim by employing an innovative machine learning method in combination with causal inference. We employ a Bayesian structural time-series model to estimate the effects of these three intervention periods on the migration flow as measured by crossing attempts (i.e., time-series aggregate counts of arrivals, pushbacks, and deaths), adjusting for various known drivers of irregular migration. We combine multiple sources of traditional and non-traditional data to build a synthetic, predicted counterfactual flow. Results show that our predictive modeling approach accurately captures the behavior of the target time-series during the various pre-intervention periods of interest. A comparison of the observed and predicted counterfactual time-series in the post-intervention periods suggest that pushback policies did affect the migration flow, but that the search-and-rescue periods did not yield a discernible difference between the observed and the predicted counterfactual number of crossing attempts. Hence we do not find support for search-and-rescue as a driver of irregular migration. In general, this modeling approach lends itself to forecasting migration flows with the goal of answering causal queries in migration research.
Risk perceptions of individuals living in single-parent households during the COVID-19 crisis
(2023)
The COVID-19 crisis had severe social and economic impact on the life of most citizens around the globe. Individuals living in single-parent households were particularly at risk, revealing detrimental labour market outcomes and assessments of future perspectives marked by worries. As it has not been investigated yet, in this paper we study, how their perception about the future and their outlook on how the pandemic will affect them is related to their objective economic resources. Against this background, we examine the subjective risk perception of worsening living standards of individuals living in single-parent households compared to other household types, their objective economic situation based on the logarithmised equivalised disposable household incomes and analyse the relationship between those indicators. Using the German SOEP, including the SOEP-CoV survey from 2020, our findings based on regression modelling reveal that individuals living in single-parent households have been worse off during the pandemic, facing high economic insecurity. Path and interaction models support our assumption that the association between those indicators may not be that straightforward, as there are underlying mechanisms–such as mediation and moderation–of income affecting its direction and strength. With respect to our central hypotheses, our empirical findings point toward (1) a mediation effect, by demonstrating that the subjective risk perception of single-parent households can be partly explained by economic conditions. (2) The moderating effect suggests that the concrete position at the income distribution of households matters as well. While at the lower end of the income distribution, single-parent households reveal particularly worse risk perceptions during the pandemic, at the high end of the income spectrum, risk perceptions are similar for all household types. Thus, individuals living in single-parent households do not perceive higher risks of worsening living standards due to their household situation per se, but rather because they are worse off in terms of their economic situation compared to individuals living in other household types.
This contribution presents an analysis of the structure and conflictual dynamics of contemporary German sociology which has recently separated into two professional societies. Using geometric data analysis, we present an empirical construction of the power/knowledge structure of the field, its paradigmatic plurality, and the various forms of sociological practices involved.
Reform als Zumutung
(2023)
Zwar mag ein Reformwille der Verwaltung in Reden und Konzeptpapieren beschworen werden; häufig findet sich jedoch keine Realität, die dieser «Poesie der Reform» (Luhmann, 2000) entspricht. Sicher ist diese Darstellung etwas überspitzt. Verwaltungen von heute unterscheiden sich deutlich von denen vor 20, 40 oder 60 Jahren. Gleichwohl sind Reformen und Innovationen für Verwaltungen eine besondere Herausforderung und Zumutung. In diesem Artikel wollen wir herausarbeiten, worin dieser Zumutungsgehalt besteht: Warum tun sich Verwaltungen mit Innovationen oft schwer? Hierzu werden wir zentrale Besonderheiten herausarbeiten, welche die Verwaltung als Organisationstyp auszeichnen. In einem zweiten Schritt wird es dann möglich sein, danach zu fragen, unter welchen Bedingungen Innovationen gleichwohl gelingen können - oder ihr Gelingen mindestens wahrscheinlicher wird.
Psychologische Sicherheit
(2023)
Durch psychologische Sicherheit am Arbeitsplatz lässt sich vieles erreichen. Sie senkt den Krankenstand, schafft Bindung zum Arbeitgeber, ermöglicht tiefere kollegiale Beziehungen und erleichtert es, voneinander zu lernen. Dabei wird aus der Perspektive des Individuums auf die Organisation geschaut und ihre personellen Vertreter, die Leader. Dieser Beitrag betont hingegen die Bedeutung der Organisation und der Grenzen, welche diese setzt. Führungskräfte können tatsächlich für psychologische Sicherheit sorgen. Allerdings nutzen sie dafür oft die falschen Mittel.
In a comparison of three human service organisations in which the human body plays a key role, we examine how organisations regulate religious body practices. We concentrate on Muslim norms of dressing and undressing as a potential focal point of cultural and religious diversity. Inspired by Ray’s (2019) idea of racialized organizations, we assume that state-run organizations in Germany are characterized by a strong commitment to religious tolerance and non-discrimination but also marked by anti- Muslim sentiment prevalent among the German population. Our study looks for mechanism that explain how Human Service Organizations accommodate Muslim body practices. It draws on qualitative empirical data collected in state-run hospitals, schools and swimming pools in Germany. Our analyses show that the organizations draw on formal and informal rules at the organizational level to accommodate Islam. We identify five general organizational mechanisms that may hinder Muslim accommodation in human service organizations. In particular, we see a risk of decoupling between the expectation of religious tolerance and processes that lead to informal discrimination, driven mainly by the difficulty of controlling group dynamics among users.
Social theory has long predicted that social mobility, in particular downward social mobility, is detrimental to the well-being of individuals. Dissociative and “falling from grace” theories suggest that mobility is stressful due to the weakening of social ties, feelings of alienation, and loss of status. In light of these theories, it is a puzzle that the majority of quantitative studies in this area have shown null results. Our approach to resolve the puzzle is two-fold. First, we argue for a broader conception of the mobility process than is often used and thus focus on intragenerational occupational class mobility rather than restricting ourselves to the more commonly studied intergenerational mobility. Second, we argue that self-reported measures may be biased by habituation (or “entrenched deprivation”). Using nurse-collected health and biomarker data from the UK Household Longitudinal Study (2010–2012, N = 4,123), we derive a measure of allostatic load as an objective gauge of physiological “wear and tear” and compare patterns of mobility effects with self-reports of health using diagonal reference models. Our findings indicate a strong class gradient in both allostatic load and self-rated health, and that both first and current job matter for current well-being outcomes. However, in terms of the effects of mobility itself, we find that intragenerational social mobility is consequential for allostatic load, but not for self-rated health. Downward mobility is detrimental and upward mobility beneficial for well-being as assessed by allostatic load. Thus, these findings do not support the idea of generalized stress from dissociation, but they do support the “falling from grace” hypothesis of negative downward mobility effects. Our findings have a further implication, namely that the differences in mobility effects between the objective and subjective outcome infer the presence of entrenched deprivation. Null results in studies of self-rated outcomes may therefore be a methodological artifact, rather than an outright rejection of decades-old social theory.
Neuroleadership
(2022)
Wie können notwendige Systemwechsel „gemanaged“ werden, wenn die etablierten Führungsansätze an heutigen Entwicklungen vorbeigehen? Das Buch beschäftigt sich mit dem Ansatz des Neuroleadership, der einen Beitrag leisten kann, Führungskonzepte weiterzuentwickeln.
Dieser neue Ansatz erweitert die bisherigen Konzepte durch die Verknüpfung von Neurosciences, Leadershiptheorie und Systemtheorie. Leadership wird dabei vor allem als beratende und unterstützende Funktion gesehen, für die Kompetenzen im hybriden systemischen Neurocoaching benötigt werden. Ein spezieller Fokus liegt auf den Einflüssen durch Digitalisierung, Intuitive, Künstliche und Web-Intelligenz.
Objective: This article analyzed gender differences in professional advancement following the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic based on data from open-source software developers in 37 countries. Background: Men and women may have been affected differently from the social distancing measures implemented to contain the Covid-19 pandemic. Given that men and women tend to work in different jobs and that they have been unequally involved in childcare duties, school and workplace closings may have impacted men's and women's professional lives unequally. Method: We analyzed original data from the world's largest social coding community, GitHub. We first estimated a Holt-Winters forecast model to compare the predicted and the observed average weekly productivity of a random sample of male and female developers (N=177,480) during the first lockdown period in 2020. To explain the crosscountry variation in the gendered effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on software developers' productivity, we estimated two-way fixed effects models with different lockdown measures as predictors - school and workplace closures, in particular. Results: In most countries, both male and female developers were, on average, more productive than predicted, and productivity increased for both genders with increasing lockdown stringency. When examining the effects of the most relevant types of lockdown measures separately, we found that stay-at-home restrictions increased both men's and women's productivity and that workplace closures also increased the number of weekly contributions on average - but for women, only when schools were open. Conclusion: Having found gender differences in the effect of workplace closures contingent on school and daycare closures within a population that is relatively young and unlikely to have children (software developers), we conclude that the Covid-19 pandemic may indeed have contributed to increased gender inequalities in professional advancement.
Richtig oder falsch?
(2022)
Pioneering scholarship links retrospective childhood conditions to mature adult health. We distinctively provide critical evidence with prospective state-of-the-art measures of parent income observed multiple times during childhood in the 1970s to 1990s. Using the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, we analyze six health outcomes (self-rated health, heart attack, stroke, life-threatening chronic conditions, non-life-threatening chronic conditions, and psychological distress) among 40- to 65-year-olds. Parent relative income rank has statistically and substantively significant relationships with five of six outcomes. The relationships with heart attack, stroke, and life-threatening chronic conditions are particularly strong. Parent income rank performs slightly better than alternative prospective and retrospective measures. At the same time, we provide novel validation on which retrospective measures (i.e., father’s education) perform almost as well as prospective measures. Furthermore, we inform several perennial debates about how relative versus absolute income and other measures of socioeconomic status and social class influence health.
In response to mounting evidence of harm inflicted on irregular migrants along their journeys from West Africa to Europe, international organizations, civil society organizations, and governments have scaled up campaigns as a tool for raising awareness about the risks of irregular migration. Campaigns aim to counter misinformation by smugglers and facilitate safe migration decisions. Despite the growing number of interventions, there is limited empirical evidence on the impact and effectiveness of such campaigns. Based on a difference-in-difference design, this study investigates the effect of a mobile cinema and community discussion intervention on the perceptions, knowledge, and intentions of potential irregular migrants in Northern Guinea in 2019. The results show that potential migrants who participated in events were significantly more likely to show awareness gains and less likely to report high intentions to migrate irregularly. While the relative importance of risk perceptions and their impact on migration flows remain unclear, the findings provide evidence supporting the assumption that risk awareness can be a relevant factor in the decision-making process of potential irregular migrants. While campaigns may be an effective tool in certain contexts, effect sizes highlight the need for policymakers to keep realistic expectations.
Cross-national variation in the relationship between welfare generosity and single mother employment
(2022)
Reform of the U.S. welfare system in 1996 spurred claims that cuts to welfare programs effectively incentivized single mothers to find employment. It is difficult to assess the veracity of those claims, however, absent evidence of how the relationship between welfare benefits and single mother employment generalizes across countries. This study combines data from the European Union Labour Force Survey and the U.S. Current Population Survey (1992-2015) into one of the largest samples of single mothers ever, testing the relationships between welfare generosity and single mothers’ employment and work hours. We find no consistent evidence of a negative relationship between welfare generosity and single mother employment outcomes. Rather, we find tremendous cross-national heterogeneity, which does not clearly correspond to well-known institutional variations. Our findings demonstrate the limitations of single country studies and the pervasive, salient interactions between institutional contexts and social policies.
Stochastic uncertainty can cause coordination problems that may hinder mutually beneficial cooperation. We propose a mechanism of ex-post voluntary transfers designed to circumvent these coordination problems and ask whether it can increase efficiency. To test this transfer mechanism, we implement a controlled laboratory experiment based on a repeated Ultimatum Game with a stochastic endowment. Contrary to our hypothesis, we find that allowing voluntary transfers does not lead to an efficiency increase. We suggest and analyze two major reasons for this failure: first, stochastic uncertainty forces proposers intending to cooperate to accept high strategic uncertainty, which many proposers avoid; second, many responders behave only incompletely conditionally cooperatively, which hinders cooperation in future periods.
Trying as hard as i can
(2022)
The housing crisis represents a liminal experience: a loss of the taken-for-granted and the suspension of ontological security has put individuals in a situation of potentiality in which both conceptions of home and of personal identity are open to transformation. Empirically assessing this liminal transition allows us to understand the refiguration processes of both home and subjectivities. This has both conceptual and political implications: with ongoing individualization of responsibility in virtually all spheres of social life, it is no longer possible to assume that the private sphere of home is an arena in which individuals are free and secured from societal forces, pressures, and compulsions. Instead, we might find ourselves in a transient liminal period in which the very meaning and psycho-social foundation of home are being transformed. To understand these processes is not only an epistemological but also a political endeavor, for only by understanding the psycho-social implications of the housing crisis can we acknowledge its embeddedness in and relation to processes of societal individualization, as well as the potential to open up pathways to the emergence of a liminal communitas.
Who suffered most?
(2022)
Objective:
This study examines gender and socioeconomic inequalities in parental psychological wellbeing (parenting stress and psychological distress) during the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany.
Background:
The dramatic shift of childcare and schooling responsibility from formal institutions to private households during the pandemic has put families under enormous stress and raised concerns about caregivers' health and wellbeing. Despite the overwhelming media attention to families’ wellbeing, to date limited research has examined parenting stress and parental psychological distress during the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly in Germany.
Method:
We analyzed four waves of panel data (N= 1,771) from an opt-in online survey, which was conducted between March 2020 and April 2021. Multivariable OLS regressions were used to estimate variations in the pandemic's effects on parenting stress and psychological distress by various demographic and socioeconomic characteristics.
Results:
Overall, levels of parenting stress and psychological distress increased during the pandemic. During the first and third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, mothers, parents with children younger than 11 years, parents with two or more children, parents working from home as well as parents with financial insecurity experienced higher parenting stress than other sociodemographic groups. Moreover, women, respondents with lower incomes, single parents, and parents with younger children experienced higher levels of psychological distress than other groups.
Conclusion:
Gender and socioeconomic inequalities in parents' psychological wellbeing increased among the study participants during the pandemic.
Risky journeys
(2022)
In response to well-documented harms inflicted on irregular migrants attempting to travel from West Africa to Europe, various actors have scaled up information interventions to counter misinformation by smuggling networks and facilitate safe migration decisions. Many interventions include information on the potential dangers involved in migration. However, there is a striking lack of empirical evidence assessing a key assumption of campaign effectiveness, that is the relationship between risk perceptions and the decision to migrate irregularly. This study contributes an empirical account based on two independently collected surveys in Senegal and Guinea. Consistent with rational choice theories on migration decisions under uncertainty, the results suggest that higher risk perceptions are consistently and strongly associated with reduced intentions to migrate irregularly. Yet, the explanatory power of risk perceptions depends on context and is generally less important than structural and socio-economic factors.
Phone surveys have increasingly become important data collection tools in developing countries, particularly in the context of sudden contact restrictions due to the COVID-19 pandemic. So far, there is limited evidence regarding the potential of the messenger service WhatsApp for remote data collection despite its large global coverage and expanding membership. WhatsApp may offer advantages in terms of reducing panel attrition and cutting survey costs. WhatsApp may offer additional benefits to migration scholars interested in cross-border migration behavior which is notoriously difficult to measure using conventional face-to-face surveys. In this field experiment, we compared the response rates between WhatsApp and interactive voice response (IVR) modes using a sample of 8446 contacts in Senegal and Guinea. At 12%, WhatsApp survey response rates were nearly eight percentage points lower than IVR survey response rates. However, WhatsApp offers higher survey completion rates, substantially lower costs and does not introduce more sample selection bias compared to IVR. We discuss the potential of WhatsApp surveys in low-income contexts and provide practical recommendations for field implementation.
Social theory has long predicted that social mobility, in particular downward social mobility, is detrimental to the well-being of individuals. Dissociative and “falling from grace” theories suggest that mobility is stressful due to the weakening of social ties, feelings of alienation, and loss of status. In light of these theories, it is a puzzle that the majority of quantitative studies in this area have shown null results. Our approach to resolve the puzzle is two-fold. First, we argue for a broader conception of the mobility process than is often used and thus focus on intragenerational occupational class mobility rather than restricting ourselves to the more commonly studied intergenerational mobility. Second, we argue that self-reported measures may be biased by habituation (or “entrenched deprivation”). Using nurse-collected health and biomarker data from the UK Household Longitudinal Study (2010–2012, N = 4,123), we derive a measure of allostatic load as an objective gauge of physiological “wear and tear” and compare patterns of mobility effects with self-reports of health using diagonal reference models. Our findings indicate a strong class gradient in both allostatic load and self-rated health, and that both first and current job matter for current well-being outcomes. However, in terms of the effects of mobility itself, we find that intragenerational social mobility is consequential for allostatic load, but not for self-rated health. Downward mobility is detrimental and upward mobility beneficial for well-being as assessed by allostatic load. Thus, these findings do not support the idea of generalized stress from dissociation, but they do support the “falling from grace” hypothesis of negative downward mobility effects. Our findings have a further implication, namely that the differences in mobility effects between the objective and subjective outcome infer the presence of entrenched deprivation. Null results in studies of self-rated outcomes may therefore be a methodological artifact, rather than an outright rejection of decades-old social theory.
Emerging evidence has highlighted the important role of local contexts for integration trajectories of asylum seekers and refugees. Germany's policy of randomly allocating asylum seekers across Germany may advantage some and disadvantage others in terms of opportunities for equal participation in society. This study explores the question whether asylum seekers that have been allocated to rural areas experience disadvantages in terms of language acquisition compared to those allocated to urban areas. We derive testable assumptions using a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) which are then tested using large-N survey data (IAB-BAMF-SOEP refugee survey). We find that living in a rural area has no negative total effect on language skills. Further the findings suggest that the "null effect" is the result of two processes which offset each other: while asylum seekers in rural areas have slightly lower access for formal, federally organized language courses, they have more regular exposure to German speakers.
Wie gut ist gut?
(2022)
Fortes fortuna adiuvat*
(2022)
For many years scholars and politicians discuss the economic importance of the middle income class. Our article contributes to broaden the present state of research by not only examining the structure of the middle class whilst focusing on individual attributes, but by especially taking the role of gender-specific occupational characteristics and country-specific conditions into account. Based on the EU-SILC data 2020 for 17 countries, we analyze which factors affect the structure of the middle income class on the individual, on the occupational and country level. Our findings show that occupational attributes (e.g. part-time rate) prove to be highly relevant in this realm. Moreover, significant gender differences can be observed: women who work in an occupation which is mainly performed by women bear a higher risk of belonging to the lower income class as compared to men.
Immense uncertainty and the need for drastic interventions cause politicians to rely heavily on scientific advice for underpinning or legitimating their COVID-19 decision-making. This paper explores the role of scientific advice in this policy field in Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and the UK. It shows that scientific advice is based on the disciplinary, mainly medical, backgrounds of advisors but is also influenced by social and economic values, which are core to what politicians find important. During the pandemic a growing gap between scientific advice and political decisions is observed.
This article examines how challenger parties enter the political arena and the effect of this entry by looking at the Italian 5 Star Movement (Movimento 5 Stelle – M5S). We explain the M5S's entry strategy in 2013 using the spatial approach to party competition and employing expert survey data collected for each national election between 2008 and 2018. These data allow us to analyse the changing spatial configuration of Italian politics due to the increasing salience of pro/anti-EU and pro/anti-immigration dimensions. We then apply the theoretical notion of the uncovered set (UCS) to trace how the M5S's entry reshaped the overall space of party competition, causing a realignment of existing parties. This work contributes to the ongoing debate on the electoral success of challenger parties and the emerging cleavages and polarization of party systems in Western European countries.
Die Mehrheit aktueller Studien schätzt das Transformationspotenzial digitaler Technologien für Organisationen hoch ein. In Auseinandersetzung mit dieser Einschätzung entwickelt der Artikel eine konzeptionelle organisationssoziologische Perspektive auf das Verhältnis von Organisation und digitalen Technologien. Wir nutzen diese Perspektive, um den Fall des Predictive Policing in Deutschland zu betrachten und die Entscheidung zur Adaption der Technologie, ihre organisationale Situierung sowie die Rolle des Organisationstyps zu diskutieren. Unsere Perspektive führt zu einem zurückhaltenden Urteil über das Transformationspotenzial dieser digitalen Technologie, die wir daher als Reform unter anderen Reformen begreifen. Insgesamt argumentieren wir dafür, Digitalisierung stärker als bisher als heterogenen Prozess zu verstehen.
In Krisenzeiten ist der Ruf nach Führung besonders populär. Dabei ist gerade Führung selbst eines der unsichersten Mittel, die der Organisation zur Verfügung stehen. Hingegen wird das Potenzial von Strukturen zu wenig gesehen. Wenn in unsicheren Situationen der Wunsch nach Orientierung und Klarheit groß ist, können häufig strukturelle Entscheidungen die notwendigen Sicherheiten vermitteln.
Die digitale Transformation hat einen massiven Einfluss auf die Aus- und Umgestaltung von Organisationen und Strukturen. Dies gilt nicht nur für Unternehmen, sondern auch für die öffentliche Verwaltung. Dort laufen die Fragen der Digitalisierung auf und sollen in Entscheidungen übersetzt werden. Digitalisierungsthemen fügen sich allerdings
nicht in das typische Schema von Ministerien, Ressorts und Abteilungen ein: Sie können nur ressortübergreifend und unter Mitwirkung zahlreicher politischer, zivilgesellschaftlicher und wirtschaftlicher Akteure bearbeitet werden.
Dies widerspricht dem klassischen Zuständigkeitsprinzip in der Verwaltung, das eine gemeinsame Erarbeitung von Themen grundsätzlich nicht vorsieht.
Job satisfaction is a major driver of an individual’s subjective well-being and thus affects public health, societal prosperity, and organisations, as dissatisfied employees are less productive and more likely to change jobs. However, changing jobs does not necessarily lead to higher job satisfaction in the long run. Previous studies have shown, instead, that changing jobs only increases job satisfaction for a short period of time before it gradually falls back to similar levels as before. This phenomenon is known as the ’honeymoon–hangover’ pattern. In our study, we identify an important new moderator of the relation between job change and job satisfaction: the job–education match of job changes. Based on relative deprivation theory, we argue that job changes from being overeducated in a job lowers the likelihood of negative comparisons and thus increases the honeymoon period, lessens the hangover period, and increases long-term job satisfaction. We use data from the Socio-Economic Panel ranging from 1994–2018 and focus specifically on individual periods of employees before and after job changes (n = 134,404). Our results confirm that a change to a job that requires a matched education has a stronger and longer-lasting effect on job satisfaction, and that this effect is slightly lower for respondents born abroad.
Eine indifferente Gemengelage unterschiedlicher Erwartungen ist im Coaching nicht selten. Jeder will etwas anderes - was genau, weiß man häufig nicht. Oftmals ist man sich noch nicht einmal sicher, was man selbst will. Das führt zu Stress und Blockaden. Und die Optionen und Handlungsmöglichkeiten geraten aus dem Blick. Diese Situation ist auch vielen Führungskräften wohlbekannt.
Die Büchse der Pandora ist geöffnet. Mitarbeitende haben kein Interesse daran, sich wieder an der jeweiligen Firmenadresse einzufinden. Viele Neueingestellte haben das Homeoffice als Selbstverständlichkeit kennengelernt. Betriebsvereinbarungen sehen viele Freiheiten vor, die Verantwortung für die Umsetzung liegt im mittleren Management. Doch welche Instrumente zur Steuerung haben Führungskräfte? Wie verändert sich ihre Rolle? Eine Studie der Organisationsberatung Metaplan.
Divorce à l’allemande
(2022)
Avec la création de l’Académie de sociologie (AS), le champ sociologique allemand compte désormais une nouvelle association professionnelle qui s’ajoute à la Société allemande de sociologie (DGS), établie de longue date. Cet article passe en revue les principales positions discursives, les sujets de controverse majeurs ainsi que les grandes lignes de fracture qui ont conduit à ce schisme. Les conflits contemporains sont interprétés au travers d’une représentation empirique du champ de la sociologie allemande. De manière générale, la sociologie allemande contemporaine apparaît une fois de plus dominée par deux camps opposés, arbitrairement définis mais puissants, qui se partagent la domination d’une discipline, pourtant réellement pluraliste.
Studies from several countries suggest that COVID-19 vaccination rates are lower among migrants compared to the general population. Urgent calls have been made to improve vaccine outreach to migrants, however, there is limited evidence on effective approaches, especially using social media. We assessed a targeted, low-cost, Facebook campaign disseminating COVID-19 vaccine information among Arabic, Turkish and Russian speakers in Germany (N = 888,994). As part of the campaign, we conducted two randomized, online experiments to assess the impact of the advertisement (1) language and (2) depicted messenger (government authority, religious leader, doctor or family). Key outcomes included reach, click-through rates, conversion rates and cost-effectiveness. Within 29 days, the campaign reached 890 thousand Facebook users. On average, 2.3 individuals accessed the advertised COVID-19 vaccination appointment tool for every euro spent on the campaign. Migrants were 2.4 (Arabic), 1.8 (Russian) and 1.2 (Turkish) times more likely to click on advertisements translated to their native language compared to German-language advertisements. Furthermore, findings showed that government representatives can be more successful in engaging migrants online compared to other messengers, despite common claims of lower trust in government institutions among migrants. This study highlights the potential of tailored, and translated, vaccination campaigns on social media for reaching migrants who may be left out by traditional media campaigns.
Through qualitative research conducted in the bazaars of Bishkek, this paper examines the posited tripartite relationship between the free market, micro-finance and women's empowerment by focusing on how loans from micro-finance institutions in Bishkek influence the lives of female loanees. The neo-liberal conception of 'individual autonomy' and 'empowerment', it is argued, may not adequately serve as indicators of actual female empowerment/disempowerment in Bishkek and lead us to fail to recognize moments of self-exploitation and forms of claim-making. The research also underlines the disempowering effects of the affectional burden, that is, the constant sense of anxiety, that the loanees have to manage in order to survive in the neo-liberal business environment, which offers high interest rate loans and exposes the loanees to over-indebtedness. These effects can be followed through the analysis of the role the desire for stability and 'ontological security' plays in the formation of the identities/world views of the loanees.
Den Boden putzen, das Bett abziehen, einen Blumenstrauß arrangieren – Bemühungen um Sauberkeit sowie eine angenehme Raumatmosphäre obliegen im Krankenhaus meist weiblichen* Pflegerinnen, Reinigungskräften und Hauswirtschafterinnen. Im Klinikalltag vermischen sich Anforderungen an hygienische Sauberkeit unter Prozessen der Ökonomisierung mit Logiken des Marketings sowie mit affektiv-emotionalen Bedürfnissen der Akteur_innen dieser Räume. Obwohl die Maßstäbe klinischer Hygiene auf medizinischem Wissen basieren, sind die Arbeitsteilung sowie Ansprüche an Sauberkeit auf verschiedenen Hierarchieebenen zugleich von vergeschlechtlichten und teils rassifizierten Vorstellungen durchdrungen, die über den klinischen Kontext hinausweisen. Dies legt schon eine Beschäftigung mit der Geschichte der Bakteriologie nahe: Die Logik und Sprache der Infektionsabwehr ist in Wissenschaft und Alltag auch verwoben mit sozialen Differenzmarkierungen.
Unter Rückgriff auf die Ergebnisse einer Ethnografie zu Sauberkeit und Reinigungsarbeiten im Krankenhaus, die wissensgeschichtlich fundiert werden, wird in dem Beitrag die Frage nach der (feminisierten) Sorge für die Umwelt mit der Frage nach der Atmosphäre klinischer Räume verknüpft. Auf welche Weise und mit welchen Effekten verschränken sich wissenschaftlich-medizinisches Hygienewissen mit einem alltäglichen, jedoch historisierbaren Wissen über schöne und angenehme Sauberkeit, das immer noch weiblich konnotiert ist?
Two decades ago, Tarana Burke started using the phrase ‘me too’ to release victims of sexual abuse and rape from their shame and to empower girls from minority communities. In 2017, actress Alyssa Milano made the hashtag #MeToo go viral. This article’s concern is with the role of testimonial practices in the context of sexual violence. While many feminists have claimed that the word of those who claim to being sexually violated by others (should) have political and/or epistemic priority, others have failed to recognize the harm and injury of instances of sexual violence that are not yet acknowledged as such and failed to listen to victims from marginalized social groups. In fact, some feminists have attacked #MeToo for mingling accounts of ‘proper’ sexual violence and accounts that are not ‘proper’ experiences of sexual violence. My aim in this article is to show why this critique is problematic and find a philosophically fruitful way to understand the #MeToo-movement as a movement that strives for moral and conceptual progress.
In recent years, all over the globe we have seen intensifying economic exploitation, political disenfranchisement, social marginalization and cultural repression in all kinds of political regimes, from liberal democratic to authoritarian and dictatorial. Although the strategies vary with regard to regime and context, in all of them we observe that while a growing number of social groups are speaking out and rising against them, a presumably much higher number of groups do not. In this article, I argue that all these processes can be conceived as aspects of ongoing closure struggles in social life. However, in order to understand why some social groups are able to fight against closure strategies while others are not, closure theory in its current state of elaboration is not of any help. While it operates with the term solidarization, it does not offer any explanation of how such acting in solidarity may become possible in closure struggles. The article is a mainly theoretical contribution of how to solve this problem.
Rassenbürgerkrieg
(2021)
Existing theories of aging suggest that there may be similarities and differences in how COVID-19 impacts older people’s psychosocial adaptation compared to younger age groups, particularly middle-aged individuals. To assess the degree to which these impacts vary, we analyzed data from 3098 participants between the ages of 40 and 79 from an online survey in Germany. Data were collected at three measurement occasions between the start of the nationwide lockdown in mid-March 2020 and the end of the lockdown in early August 2020. The survey focused on everyday experiences during the COVID-19 crisis and collected various satisfaction ratings (e.g., general life satisfaction, satisfaction with family life, satisfaction with social contacts). At baseline, participants also provided retrospective ratings of satisfaction for the period before the COVID-19 crisis. In our analyses, we compared satisfaction ratings of middle-aged (40–64 years) and older individuals (65–79 years) and found that both middle-aged and older participants experienced the greatest decreases in satisfaction with social contacts, with more pronounced decreases seen in middle-aged participants. A similar pattern was observed for general life satisfaction, but the overall decreases were less pronounced in both groups compared to the decreases in satisfaction with social contacts. We also observed a partial recovery effect in all measures at the last measurement occasion, and this effect was more pronounced in older adults. Findings were also confirmed using age as a continuous variable and checking for linear and nonlinear effects of outcomes across the age range. Although ageism arose during the pandemic in the sense that older adults were labeled as a “risk group,” particularly at the start of the outbreak, we found consistently with other studies that middle-aged adults’ satisfaction decreased to a greater extent than that of older adults.
In times of educational expansion, privileged families are looking for new strategies of distinction. Referring to Pierre Bourdieu’s theory of distinction, we argue that choosing Latin at school – a language that is no longer spoken and therefore has no direct value – is one of the strategies of privileged families to set themselves apart from less privileged families. Based on two surveys we conducted at German schools, the paper analyzes the relationship between parents’ educational background and the probability that their child will learn Latin. Results indicate that historically academic families have the strongest tendency towards learning Latin, followed by new academic families, and leaving behind the non-academic families. We distinguish between four causal mechanisms that might help to explain these associations: cultural distinction, selecting a socially exclusive learning environment, beliefs in a secondary instrumental function of learning Latin, and spatial proximity between the location of humanist Gymnasiums and the residential areas of privileged families. The hypotheses are formalized by means of Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAG). Findings show that the decision to learn Latin is predominately an unintended consequence of the selection of a socially exclusive learning environment. In addition, there is evidence that especially children from historically academic families learn Latin as a strategy of cultural distinction.
Wie hat sich die COVID-19 Pandemie auf geschlechtsspezifische Ungleichheiten im Arbeitsleben und dem subjektiven Wohlbefinden Erwerbstätiger ausgewirkt? Zur Beantwortung dieser Frage analysiert dieser Beitrag drei Wellen einer nicht zufallsbasierten Onlinestichprobe für den Zeitraum Mitte März bis Anfang August 2020 und umfassen damit den Zeitraum des ersten Lockdowns. Die Ergebnisse unserer multivariaten Analysen zeigen: Frauen, Eltern und insbesondere Mütter waren überdurchschnittlich von Arbeitszeitreduzierungen betroffen. Bei der Wahrscheinlichkeit im Homeoffice zu arbeiten gab es nur geringfügige Unterschiede nach Geschlecht und Familiensituation. Die Zufriedenheit mit der Arbeit, dem Familienleben und dem Leben insgesamt ging bei Frauen, Eltern und insbesondere Müttern überproportional stark zurück. Die beobachteten Unterschiede verringern sich gegen Ende des Lockdowns wieder, jedoch unterschiedlich stark für die einzelnen Ergebnisdimensionen.
Der Artikel analysiert aus organisationssoziologischer Perspektive wie die Bundeswehr Gleichstellungsrecht umsetzt. Das zentrale Argument lautet, dass die Bundeswehr das Gleichstellungsrecht managerialisiert, indem sie institutionalisierte Praktiken adaptiert, die es erlauben, das Gleichstellungsrecht für den Zweck der Personalgewinnung auszudeuten. Die Adaption dieser Praktiken wird maßgeblich dadurch begünstigt, dass sich das Gleichstellungsrecht als Lösung mit dem Problem der zukünftigen Personalgewinnung verknüpfen lässt, nachdem die Bundesregierung die Wehrpflicht aussetzte und beschloss, die Bundeswehr wieder zu vergrößern. Der beschriebene Prozess führt auch dazu, dass die Bundeswehr in der Umsetzung des Gleichstellungsrechtes zunehmend großen Unternehmen ähnlicher wird. Insgesamt leistet die vorliegende Studie einen Beitrag zur Analyse der Beziehung staatlicher Organisationen zu ihrer rechtlichen Umwelt.
This article examines how contact with perceived foreigners affects natives' attitudes towards immigration. Using six waves of individual level panel data from Germany (2007-2017), we find that natives' reported mutual visits with foreigners reduce worries about immigration. However, the results do not imply an increase in this effect in the course of repeated contact. Our analyses also consider the possibility that the effect of out-group contact on attitudes is heterogeneous across social groups. Our results show that contact effects are not restricted to younger age groups but also hold for older age groups. Surprisingly, there are stronger reductions in worries among right-leaning compared to left-leaning individuals.
Einleitung
(2021)
COP 25
(2020)
The 25th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP-25) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) became the longest COP on record - but yielded few results. It appears that four years after the adoption of the Paris Agreement, enthusiasm has waned and political bargaining and bean-counting have taken over. Countries, for even the slightest chance to keep temperatures 'well below' 2 degrees Celsius, must do much more than they have previously committed to and accelerate the shift towards a zero-carbon economy. However, the conference largely failed to heed the rallying cry of the Chilean presidency. The flagship decisions (grouped under the banner "Chile-Madrid Time for Action") neither produced new commitments - enhancing ambition or finance for developing countries - nor new rules that would nudge countries closer to the climate action targets needed. The leftover pieces from last year's negotiations of the "Paris Rulebook" were also not resolved, in particular the unfinished decisions on Article 6 on market- and non-market mechanisms. The procrastination shows that the new architecture of the Paris Agreement, while addressing several of the shortcomings of the Kyoto Protocol, suffers from its own weaknesses. The meager results of Madrid give reason to pause and reflect on the conditions that may hold countries back from fully embracing the Paris Agreement, but also to consider the future and nature of carbon markets and what is making the issue so difficult to resolve.
Who’s to Blame?
(2020)
The main aim of this paper is to investigate how sexist ideology distorts our conceptions of sexual violence and the hermeneutical gaps such an ideology yields. I propose that we can understand the problematic issue of hermeneutical gaps about sexual violence with the help of Fricker’s theory of hermeneutical injustice. By distinguishing between hermeneutical injustice and hermeneutical misfire, we can distinguish between the hermeneutical gap and its consequences for the victim of sexual violence and those of the perpetrator of such violence. I then argue that perpetrators are both morally responsible and accountable for their acts, even if they are the result of a hermeneutical misfire. Ultimately, I show that with regard to sexual violence, we should opt for accountability to change the behaviour of the perpetrator and the social structure. Content warning: The paper discusses sexual violence and difficulties conceptualising experiences of such violence.
Although observational studies from many countries have consistently shown that motherhood negatively affects women's wages, experimental findings on its effect on the likelihood of being hired are less conclusive. Motherhood penalties in hiring have been reported in the United States, the prototypical liberal market economy, but not in Sweden, the prototypical social-democratic welfare state. Based on a field experiment in Germany, this study examines the effects of parenthood on hiring processes in the prototypical conservative welfare state. My findings indicate that job recruitment processes indeed penalize women but not men for having children. In addition to providing theoretical explanations for why motherhood penalties in hiring are particularly likely to occur in the German context, this study also highlights several methodological and practical issues that should be considered when conducting correspondence studies to examine labour market discrimination.
Introduction
(2020)
The processes of neo-liberalisation, coined as ‘actually existing neo-liberalism’ are by their very nature variegated and context-specific and can appear in multi-faceted and contradictory forms. Consequentially, sociological reflection has tried to conceptualise ongoing processes of transforming the city under the concept of urban neo-liberalism which is generally understood as the contextually specific and path-dependent realisation of neo-liberal restructuration projects, embedded in varying social, political, economic, and cultural ‘regulatory landscapes’. As much as neo-liberalism as ideology and political programme aims at erasing any democratic participation in society, its proponents have taken sides pushing ahead the re-conceptualisation of the city as a market with the right of the stronger ‘to do down the weaker’. The city has become a focal point for neo-liberalism’s war against democracy and citizens. Turning social relations into market transactions in order to restructure cities is not a new idea from the neo-liberals but one of the non-negotiable dogmas of their religion called science.
Vast racial inequalities continue to prevail across the United States and are closely linked to economic resources. One particularly prominent argument contends that childhood wealth accounts for black–white (BW) disadvantages in life chances. This article analyzes how much childhood wealth and childhood income mediate BW disadvantages in adult life chances with Panel Study of Income Dynamics and Cross-National Equivalent File data on children from the 1980s and 1990s who were 30+ years old in 2015. Compared with previous research, we exploit longer panel data, more comprehensively assess adult life chances with 18 outcomes, and measure income and wealth more rigorously. We find large BW disadvantages in most outcomes. Childhood wealth and income mediate a substantial share of most BW disadvantages, although there are several significant BW disadvantages even after adjusting for childhood wealth and income. The evidence mostly contradicts the prominent claim that childhood wealth is more important than childhood income. Indeed, the analyses mostly show that childhood income explains more of BW disadvantages and has larger standardized coefficients than childhood wealth. We also show how limitations in prior wealth research explain why our conclusions differ. Replication with the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth and a variety of robustness checks support these conclusions.
Peer groups are critical socialization agents for the development of social behavior in adolescence, but studies examining peer-group effects on individuals' prosocial behavior are scarce. Using a two-wave, multilevel data set (N = 16,893, 8481 male; 8412 female; mean age at Time 1: 14.0 years) from 1308 classes in 252 secondary schools in Germany, main effects of the classroom level of prosocial behavior, cross-level interactions between the classroom and the individual levels of prosocial behavior at Time 1, and the moderating role of gender were examined. The results showed that adolescents in classrooms with high collective levels of prosocial behavior at Time 1 reported more prosocial behavior at Time 2, about two years later, reflecting a class-level main effect. A significant cross-level interaction indicated that a high classroom level of prosocial behavior particularly affected individuals with lower levels of prosocial behavior at Time 1. The influence of same-gender peers was larger compared with opposite-gender peers. The findings are discussed with respect to social learning mechanisms in the development of prosocial behavior and their implications for interventions to promote prosocial behavior.
How can labour market institutions make workers confident about their economic future? While quantitative studies have repeatedly shown that countries’ labour market regulations and policies are related to variations in workers’ perceived job security, these studies did not explain how these institutions affect workers’ perceptions and expectations. This study seeks to close this gap by analysing qualitative interview data collected on employees in Germany and the U.S. during the great financial crisis (2009–2010). The study's main finding is that policies vary in their effectiveness at making workers feel secure about their jobs. While unemployment assistance can reduce workers’ worries about job loss, dismissal protection does not seem to effectively increase workers’ confidence that their jobs are secure. Overall, employees know relatively little about the policies and regulations that are meant to protect them and have limited trust in their effectiveness. Individual and organisational characteristics seem to be more relevant for employees’ feelings of job security than national-level policies. In particular, comparisons with others who have lower levels of protection increase workers’ perceived security. These insights are particularly important in light of the ongoing changes in the world of work that are making workers’ lives more uncertain and insecure.
League of Legends
(2020)
Drawing on three waves of survey data from a non-probability sample from Germany, this paper examines two opposing expectations about the pandemic's impacts on gender equality: The optimistic view suggests that gender equality has increased, as essential workers in Germany have been predominantly female and as fathers have had more time for childcare. The pessimistic view posits that lockdowns have also negatively affected women's jobs and that mothers had to shoulder the additional care responsibilities. Overall, our exploratory analyses provide more evidence supporting the latter view. Parents were more likely than non-parents to work fewer hours during the pandemic than before, and mothers were more likely than fathers to work fewer hours once lockdowns were lifted. Moreover, even though parents tended to divide childcare more evenly, at least temporarily, mothers still shouldered more childcare work than fathers. The division of housework remained largely unchanged. It is therefore unsurprising that women, in particular mothers, reported lower satisfaction during the observation period. Essential workers experienced fewer changes in their working lives than respondents in other occupations.
Ausgehend von der Debatte um die Genderaspekte der Digitalisierung der Arbeit untersuchen wir den Zusammenhang zwischen der Nutzung digitaler Technologien und der Entwicklung von Geschlechterungleichheiten empirisch. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass Frauen in Branchen mit hohem Digitalisierungsgrad unterrepräsentiert sind und dass sich diese Dimension der Geschlechtersegregation in den letzten Jahren verstärkte. Die Unterrepräsentation von Frauen in Branchen mit hohem Digitalisierungsgrad geht mit Nachteilen bei den Verdiensten einher. Die Ergebnisse zeigen zudem, dass der Gender Pay Gap in Branchen mit hohem Digitalisierungsgrad tendenziell größer ist und über die Zeit weniger zurückging als in Branchen, in denen weniger digitale Technologien genutzt werden.
Since COVID-19 became a pandemic, many studies are being conducted to get a better understanding of the disease itself and its spread. One crucial indicator is the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infections. Since this measure is an important foundation for political decisions, its estimate must be reliable and unbiased. This paper presents reasons for biases in prevalence estimates due to unit nonresponse in typical studies. Since it is difficult to avoid bias in situations with mostly unknown nonresponse mechanisms, we propose the maximum amount of bias as one measure to assess the uncertainty due to nonresponse. An interactive web application is presented that calculates the limits of such a conservative unit nonresponse confidence interval (CUNCI).
Das Abendland
(2019)
The religious borders of Europe, which are more evident and controversial than ever, challenge established forms of political legitimacy and the legal requirements for citizenship. Perhaps covertly rather than overtly, they shape politics and policies. While scholars have once again resorted to Edward Said’s Orientalism to describe the dynamic at play, this article argues that the Orientalism narrative of East and West is too simple to capture the actual complexity of Europe’s borders. There are four religious and thus four cultural-symbolic borders, which are increasingly defining the continent: north-western Europe is Protestant, southern Europe is Catholic, the East is Orthodox and increasingly nationalist, and the South and Near East are Muslim. The cultural purity and the values that Europe craves in search of identity and order are simply not available in a world of global interconnectedness and social diversity.
Gesundheitsbildung
(2019)
This paper compares the usability of data stemming from probability sampling with data stemming from nonprobability sampling. It develops six research scenarios that differ in their research goals and assumptions about the data generating process. It is shown that inferences from data stemming from nonprobability sampling implies demanding assumptions on the homogeneity of the units being studied. Researchers who are not willing to pose these assumptions are generally better off using data from probability sampling, regardless of the amount of nonresponse. However, even in cases when data from probability sampling is clearly advertised, data stemming from nonprobability sampling may contribute to the cumulative scientific endeavour of pinpointing a plausible interval for the parameter of interest.
This article draws on the experience from an ongoing research project employing respondent-driven sampling (RDS) to survey (illicit) 24-hour home care workers. We highlight issues around the preparatory work and the fielding of the survey to provide researchers with useful insights on how to implement RDS when surveying populations for which the method has not yet been used. We conclude the article with ethical considerations that occur when employing RDS.
Concepts and theory
(2019)
There is no threat to Western democracies today comparable to the rise of right-wing populism. While it has played an increasing role at least since the 1990s, only the social consequences of the global financial crises in 2008 have given it its break that led to UK’s ‘Brexit’ and the election of Donald Trump as US President in 2016, as well as promoting what has been called left populism in countries that were hit the hardest by both the banking crisis and consequential neo-liberal austerity politics in the EU, such as Greece and Portugal.
In 2017, the French Front National (FN) attracted many voters in the French Presidential elections; we have seen the radicalization of the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) in Germany and the formation of centre-right government in Austria. Further, we have witnessed the consolidation of autocratic regimes, as in the EU member states Poland and Greece. All these manifestations of right-wing populism share a common feature: they attack or even compromise the core elements of democratic societies such as the separation of powers, protection of minorities, or the rule of law.
Despite a broad debate on the re-emergence of ‘populism’ in the transition from the twentieth to the twenty-first century that has brought forth many interesting findings, a lack of sociological reasoning cannot be denied, as sociology itself withdrew from theorising populism decades ago and largely left the field to political sciences and history. In a sense, Populism and the Crisis of Democracy considers itself a contribution to begin filling this lacuna. Written in a direct and clear style, this set of volumes will be an invaluable reference for students and scholars in the field of political theory, political sociology and European Studies.
This volume Concepts and Theory offers new and fresh perspectives on the debate on populism. Starting from complaints about the problems of conceptualising populism that in recent years have begun to revolve around themselves, the chapters offer a fundamental critique of the term and concept of populism, theoretically inspired typologies and descriptions of currently dominant concepts, and ways to elaborate on them. With regard to theory, the volume offers approaches that exceed the disciplinary horizon of political science that so far has dominated the debate. As sociological theory so far has been more or less absent in the debate on populism, only few efforts have been made to discuss populism more intensely within different theoretical contexts in order to explain its dynamics and processes. Thus, this volume offers critical views on the debate on populism from the perspectives of political economy and the analysis of critical historical events, the links of analyses of populism with social movement mobilisation, the significance of ‘superfluous populations’ in the rise of populism and an analysis of the exclusionary character of populism from the perspective of the theory of social closure.
An effective training program needs to be customized to the specific
demands of the redpective sport. Therefore, it is important to
conduct a needs analysis to gain information on the unique
characteristics of the sport. The objectives of thes review were (A)
to conduct a systematic needs analysis of karate kumite and (B) to
provide practical recommendations for sport-specific performance
testing and training of karate kumite athletes.
This article focuses on the marginal extremities – the limits – of Shari’a practices in Australia, through the example of a criminal case in which four Sydney-based Muslim men whipped a Muslim convert to punish him for his excessive consumption of drugs and alcohol. The men claimed they acted in line with the doctrines of Shari’a practice to ‘purify’ or absolve the victim of his sins. While the case was tried before a magistrate in a lower court, it is argued in this article that its social and political significance was wider, reaching into contemporary debates around multiculturalism and immigration from non-western, non-liberal and mainly Muslim nations. Mainstream media and political narratives viewed the whipping as an example of the moral dangers of accommodating Shari’a norms, eliding the differences between peaceable Shari’a and its violent extremities, while situating the case at the limits of multicultural accommodation. This article interrogates the objectionable margins of some cultural practices through this limit case. At the same time it questions the limits or limitations of a multiculturalism that homogeneously views the practices of entire ethnic or religious groups as violent and incommensurable with dominant norms, while using these understandings as a justification for marginalising these groups.
Verzerrte Beteiligung
(2018)
Die Beteiligung von Bürgern abseits der institutionell geregelten Wahlen gilt vermehrt als Allheilmittel gegen die Erosion bürgerschaftlichen Engagements. Eine Vielzahl von Autoren haben auf den Missstand aufmerksam gemacht, dass Beteiligung abseits von Wahlen nur von wenigen, oftmals privilegierten Personen genutzt wird, die Beteiligung demnach verzerrt sei. Dieser Artikel nimmt als erster sowohl die ungleiche Beteiligung als auch die Verzerrung eines konkreten Abstimmungsergebnisses in den Blick.
Für den Volksentscheid über das Bauprojekt Stuttgart 21 (S21) aus dem Jahr 2011 wird ein kontrafaktisches Wahlergebnis aller Nichtwähler geschätzt. Durch die Verknüpfung von Makro-Daten auf Gemeindeebene mit einem Vorhersagemodell auf Individualebene wird der Beteiligungs-Bias geschätzt. Dieser liegt über dem von Wahlen, jedoch niedriger als bei Petitionen und Demonstrationen. Das kontrafaktische Abstimmungsergebnis prognostiziert eine verstärkte Ablehnung von S21.