Refine
Has Fulltext
- yes (4)
Document Type
- Doctoral Thesis (4)
Language
- English (4)
Is part of the Bibliography
- yes (4)
Keywords
- Gletscher (4) (remove)
The Himalayas are a region that is most dependent, but also frequently prone to hazards from changing meltwater resources. This mountain belt hosts the highest mountain peaks on earth, has the largest reserve of ice outside the polar regions, and is home to a rapidly growing population in recent decades. One source of hazard has attracted scientific research in particular in the past two decades: glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) occurred rarely, but mostly with fatal and catastrophic consequences for downstream communities and infrastructure. Such GLOFs can suddenly release several million cubic meters of water from naturally impounded meltwater lakes. Glacial lakes have grown in number and size by ongoing glacial mass losses in the Himalayas. Theory holds that enhanced meltwater production may increase GLOF frequency, but has never been tested so far. The key challenge to test this notion are the high altitudes of >4000 m, at which lakes occur, making field work impractical. Moreover, flood waves can attenuate rapidly in mountain channels downstream, so that many GLOFs have likely gone unnoticed in past decades. Our knowledge on GLOFs is hence likely biased towards larger, destructive cases, which challenges a detailed quantification of their frequency and their response to atmospheric warming. Robustly quantifying the magnitude and frequency of GLOFs is essential for risk assessment and management along mountain rivers, not least to implement their return periods in building design codes.
Motivated by this limited knowledge of GLOF frequency and hazard, I developed an algorithm that efficiently detects GLOFs from satellite images. In essence, this algorithm classifies land cover in 30 years (~1988–2017) of continuously recorded Landsat images over the Himalayas, and calculates likelihoods for rapidly shrinking water bodies in the stack of land cover images. I visually assessed such detected tell-tale sites for sediment fans in the river channel downstream, a second key diagnostic of GLOFs. Rigorous tests and validation with known cases from roughly 10% of the Himalayas suggested that this algorithm is robust against frequent image noise, and hence capable to identify previously unknown GLOFs. Extending the search radius to the entire Himalayan mountain range revealed some 22 newly detected GLOFs. I thus more than doubled the existing GLOF count from 16 previously known cases since 1988, and found a dominant cluster of GLOFs in the Central and Eastern Himalayas (Bhutan and Eastern Nepal), compared to the rarer affected ranges in the North. Yet, the total of 38 GLOFs showed no change in the annual frequency, so that the activity of GLOFs per unit glacial lake area has decreased in the past 30 years. I discussed possible drivers for this finding, but left a further attribution to distinct GLOF-triggering mechanisms open to future research.
This updated GLOF frequency was the key input for assessing GLOF hazard for the entire Himalayan mountain belt and several subregions. I used standard definitions in flood hydrology, describing hazard as the annual exceedance probability of a given flood peak discharge [m3 s-1] or larger at the breach location. I coupled the empirical frequency of GLOFs per region to simulations of physically plausible peak discharges from all existing ~5,000 lakes in the Himalayas. Using an extreme-value model, I could hence calculate flood return periods. I found that the contemporary 100-year GLOF discharge (the flood level that is reached or exceeded on average once in 100 years) is 20,600+2,200/–2,300 m3 s-1 for the entire Himalayas. Given the spatial and temporal distribution of historic GLOFs, contemporary GLOF hazard is highest in the Eastern Himalayas, and lower for regions with rarer GLOF abundance. I also calculated GLOF hazard for some 9,500 overdeepenings, which could expose and fill with water, if all Himalayan glaciers have melted eventually. Assuming that the current GLOF rate remains unchanged, the 100-year GLOF discharge could double (41,700+5,500/–4,700 m3 s-1), while the regional GLOF hazard may increase largest in the Karakoram.
To conclude, these three stages–from GLOF detection, to analysing their frequency and estimating regional GLOF hazard–provide a framework for modern GLOF hazard assessment. Given the rapidly growing population, infrastructure, and hydropower projects in the Himalayas, this thesis assists in quantifying the purely climate-driven contribution to hazard and risk from GLOFs.
The Himalayan arc stretches >2500 km from east to west at the southern edge of the Tibetan Plateau, representing one of the most important Cenozoic continent-continent collisional orogens. Internal deformation processes and climatic factors, which drive weathering, denudation, and transport, influence the growth and erosion of the orogen. During glacial times wet-based glaciers sculpted the mountain range and left overdeepend and U-shaped valleys, which were backfilled during interglacial times with paraglacial sediments over several cycles. These sediments partially still remain within the valleys because of insufficient evacuation capabilities into the foreland. Climatic processes overlay long-term tectonic processes responsible for uplift and exhumation caused by convergence. Possible processes accommodating convergence within the orogenic wedge along the main Himalayan faults, which divide the range into four major lithologic units, are debated. In this context, the identification of processes shaping the Earth’s surface on short- and on long-term are crucial to understand the growth of the orogen and implications for landscape development in various sectors along the arc. This thesis focuses on both surface and tectonic processes that shape the landscape in the western Indian Himalaya since late Miocene.
In my first study, I dated well-preserved glacially polished bedrock on high-elevated ridges and valley walls in the upper of the Chandra Valley the by means of 10Be terrestrial cosmogenic radionuclides (TCN). I used these ages and mapped glacial features to reconstruct the extent and timing of Pleistocene glaciation at the southern front of the Himalaya. I was able to reconstruct an extensive valley glacier of ~200 km length and >1000 m thickness. Deglaciation of the Chandra Valley glacier started subsequently to insolation increase on the Northern Hemisphere and thus responded to temperature increase. I showed that the timing this deglaciation onset was coeval with retreat of further midlatitude glaciers on the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. These comparisons also showed that the post-LGM deglaciation very rapid, occurred within a few thousand years, and was nearly finished prior to the Bølling/Allerød interstadial.
A second study (co-authorship) investigates how glacial advances and retreats in high mountain environments impact the landscape. By 10Be TCN dating and geomorphic mapping, we obtained maximal length and height of the Siachen Glacier within the Nubra Valley. Today the Shyok and Nubra confluence is backfilled with sedimentary deposits, which are attributed to the valley blocking of the Siachen Glacier 900 m above the present day river level. A glacial dam of the Siachen Glacier blocked the Shyok River and lead to the evolution of a more than 20 km long lake. Fluvial and lacustrine deposits in the valley document alternating draining and filling cycles of the lake dammed by the Siachen Glacier. In this study, we can show that glacial incision was outpacing fluvial incision.
In the third study, which spans the million-year timescale, I focus on exhumation and erosion within the Chandra and Beas valleys. In this study the position and discussed possible reasons of rapidly exhuming rocks, several 100-km away from one of the main Himalayan faults (MFT) using Apatite Fission Track (AFT) thermochronometry. The newly gained AFT ages indicate rapid exhumation and confirm earlier studies in the Chandra Valley. I assume that the rapid exhumation is most likely related to uplift over subsurface structures. I tested this hypothesis by combining further low-temperature thermochronometers from areas east and west of my study area. By comparing two transects, each parallel to the Beas/Chandra Valley transect, I demonstrate similarities in the exhumation pattern to transects across the Sutlej region, and strong dissimilarities in the transect crossing the Dhauladar Range. I conclude that the belt of rapid exhumation terminates at the western end of the Kullu-Rampur window. Therewith, I corroborate earlier studies suggesting changes in exhumation behavior in the western Himalaya. Furthermore, I discussed several causes responsible for the pronounced change in exhumation patterns along strike: 1) the role of inherited pre-collisional features such as the Proterozoic sedimentary cover of the Indian basement, former ridges and geological structures, and 2) the variability of convergence rates along the Himalayan arc due to an increased oblique component towards the syntaxis.
The combination of field observations (geological and geomorphological mapping) and methods to constrain short- and long-term processes (10Be, AFT) help to understand the role of the individual contributors to exhumation and erosion in the western Indian Himalaya. With the results of this thesis, I emphasize the importance of glacial and tectonic processes in shaping the landscape by driving exhumation and erosion in the studied areas.
In the high mountains of Asia, glaciers cover an area of approximately 115,000 km² and constitute one of the largest continental ice accumulations outside Greenland and Antarctica. Their sensitivity to climate change makes them valuable palaeoclimate archives, but also vulnerable to current and predicted Global Warming. This is a pressing problem as snow and glacial melt waters are important sources for agriculture and power supply of densely populated regions in south, east, and central Asia. Successful prediction of the glacial response to climate change in Asia and mitigation of the socioeconomic impacts requires profound knowledge of the climatic controls and the dynamics of Asian glaciers. However, due to their remoteness and difficult accessibility, ground-based studies are rare, as well as temporally and spatially limited. We therefore lack basic information on the vast majority of these glaciers. In this thesis, I employ different methods to assess the dynamics of Asian glaciers on multiple time scales. First, I tested a method for precise satellite-based measurement of glacier-surface velocities and conducted a comprehensive and regional survey of glacial flow and terminus dynamics of Asian glaciers between 2000 and 2008. This novel and unprecedented dataset provides unique insights into the contrasting topographic and climatic controls of glacial flow velocities across the Asian highlands. The data document disparate recent glacial behavior between the Karakoram and the Himalaya, which I attribute to the competing influence of the mid-latitude westerlies during winter and the Indian monsoon during summer. Second, I tested whether such climate-related longitudinal differences in glacial behavior also prevail on longer time scales, and potentially account for observed regionally asynchronous glacial advances. I used cosmogenic nuclide surface exposure dating of erratic boulders on moraines to obtain a glacial chronology for the upper Tons Valley, situated in the headwaters of the Ganges River. This area is located in the transition zone from monsoonal to westerly moisture supply and therefore ideal to examine the influence of these two atmospheric circulation regimes on glacial advances. The new glacial chronology documents multiple glacial oscillations during the last glacial termination and during the Holocene, suggesting largely synchronous glacial changes in the western Himalayan region that are related to gradual glacial-interglacial temperature oscillations with superimposed monsoonal precipitation changes of higher frequency. In a third step, I combine results from short-term satellite-based climate records and surface velocity-derived ice-flux estimates, with topographic analyses to deduce the erosional impact of glaciations on long-term landscape evolution in the Himalayan-Tibetan realm. The results provide evidence for the long-term effects of pronounced east-west differences in glaciation and glacial erosion, depending on climatic and topographic factors. Contrary to common belief the data suggest that monsoonal climate in the central Himalaya weakens glacial erosion at high elevations, helping to maintain a steep southern orographic barrier that protects the Tibetan Plateau from lateral destruction. The results of this thesis highlight how climatic and topographic gradients across the high mountains of Asia affect glacier dynamics on time scales ranging from 10^0 to 10^6 years. Glacial response times to climate changes are tightly linked to properties such as debris cover and surface slope, which are controlled by the topographic setting, and which need to be taken into account when reconstructing mountainous palaeoclimate from glacial histories or assessing the future evolution of Asian glaciers. Conversely, the regional topographic differences of glacial landscapes in Asia are partly controlled by climatic gradients and the long-term influence of glaciers on the topographic evolution of the orogenic system.
The European Alps are amongst the regions with highest glacier mass loss rates over the last decades. Under the threat of ongoing climate change, the ability to predict glacier mass balance changes for water and risk management purposes has become imperative. This raises an urgent need for reliable glacier models. The European Alps do not only host glaciers, but also numerous caves containing carbonate formations, called speleothems. Previous studies have shown that those speleothems also grew during times when the cave was covered by a warm-based glacier. In this thesis, I utilise speleothems from the European Alps as archives of local, environmental conditions related to mountain glacier evolution.
Previous studies have shown that speleothem isotope data from the Alps can be strongly affected by in-cave processes. Therefore, part of this thesis focusses on developing an isotope evolution model, which successfully reproduces differences between contemporaneous growing speleothems. The model is used to propose correction approaches for prior calcite precipitation effects on speleothem oxygen isotopes (δ18O). Applications on speleothem records from caves outside of the Alps demonstrate that corrected δ18O agrees better with other records and climate model simulations.
Existing speleothem growth histories and carbon isotope (δ13C) records from Alpine caves located at different elevations are used to infer soil vs. glacier cover and the thermal regime of the glacier over the last glacial cycle. The compatibility with glacier evolution models is statistically assessed. A general agreement between speleothem δ13C-derived information on soil vs. glacier presence and modelled glacier coverage is found. However, glacier retreat during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3 seems to be underestimated by the model. Furthermore, speleothem data provides evidence of surface temperature above the freezing point which is, however, not fully reproduced by the simulations.
History of glacier cover and their thermal regime is explored for the high-elevation cave system Melchsee-Frutt in the Swiss Alps. Based on new (MIS 9b – MIS 7b, MIS 2) and available speleothem δ13C (MIS 7a – 5d) data, warm-based glacier cover is inferred for MIS 8, 7d, 6, and 2. Also a short period of cold-based ice coverage is found for early MIS 6. In a detailed multi-proxy analysis (δ18O, δ13C, Mg/Ca and Sr/Ca), millennial-scale changes in the glacier-related source of the water infiltrating in the karst during MIS 8 and 7d are found and linked to Northern Hemisphere climate variability.
While speleothem records from high-elevation cave sites in the Alps exhibit huge potential for glacier reconstruction, several limitations remain, which are discussed throughout this thesis. Ultimately, recommendations are given to further leverage subglacial speleothems as an archive of glacier dynamics.