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Satellite-measured tidal magnetic signals are of growing importance. These fields are mainly used to infer Earth's mantle conductivity, but also to derive changes in the oceanic heat content. We present a new Kalman filter-based method to derive tidal magnetic fields from satellite magnetometers: KALMAG. The method's advantage is that it allows to study a precisely estimated posterior error covariance matrix. We present the results of a simultaneous estimation of the magnetic signals of 8 major tides from 17 years of Swarm and CHAMP data. For the first time, robustly derived posterior error distributions are reported along with the reported tidal magnetic fields. The results are compared to other estimates that are either based on numerical forward models or on satellite inversions of the same data. For all comparisons, maximal differences and the corresponding globally averaged RMSE are reported. We found that the inter-product differences are comparable with the KALMAG-based errors only in a global mean sense. Here, all approaches give values of the same order, e.g., 0.09 nT-0.14 nT for M2. Locally, the KALMAG posterior errors are up to one order smaller than the inter-product differences, e.g., 0.12 nT vs. 0.96 nT for M2.
Tikhonov regularization with oversmoothing penalty for nonlinear statistical inverse problems
(2020)
In this paper, we consider the nonlinear ill-posed inverse problem with noisy data in the statistical learning setting. The Tikhonov regularization scheme in Hilbert scales is considered to reconstruct the estimator from the random noisy data. In this statistical learning setting, we derive the rates of convergence for the regularized solution under certain assumptions on the nonlinear forward operator and the prior assumptions. We discuss estimates of the reconstruction error using the approach of reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces.
In quantum mechanics the temporal decay of certain resonance states is associated with an effective time evolution e(-ith(kappa)), where h(.) is an analytic family of non-self-adjoint matrices. In general the corresponding resonance states do not decay exponentially in time. Using analytic perturbation theory, we derive asymptotic expansions for e(-ith(kappa)), simultaneously in the limits kappa -> 0 and t -> infinity, where the corrections with respect to pure exponential decay have uniform bounds in one complex variable kappa(2)t.
In the Appendix we briefly review analytic perturbation theory, replacing the classical reference to the 1920 book of Knopp [Funktionentheorie II, Anwendungen und Weiterfuhrung der allgemeinen Theorie, Sammlung Goschen, Vereinigung wissenschaftlicher Verleger Walter de Gruyter, 1920] and its terminology by standard modern references. This might be of independent interest.
Data assimilation has been an active area of research in recent years, owing to its wide utility. At the core of data assimilation are filtering, prediction, and smoothing procedures. Filtering entails incorporation of measurements' information into the model to gain more insight into a given state governed by a noisy state space model. Most natural laws are governed by time-continuous nonlinear models. For the most part, the knowledge available about a model is incomplete; and hence uncertainties are approximated by means of probabilities. Time-continuous filtering, therefore, holds promise for wider usefulness, for it offers a means of combining noisy measurements with imperfect model to provide more insight on a given state.
The solution to time-continuous nonlinear Gaussian filtering problem is provided for by the Kushner-Stratonovich equation. Unfortunately, the Kushner-Stratonovich equation lacks a closed-form solution. Moreover, the numerical approximations based on Taylor expansion above third order are fraught with computational complications. For this reason, numerical methods based on Monte Carlo methods have been resorted to. Chief among these methods are sequential Monte-Carlo methods (or particle filters), for they allow for online assimilation of data. Particle filters are not without challenges: they suffer from particle degeneracy, sample impoverishment, and computational costs arising from resampling.
The goal of this thesis is to:— i) Review the derivation of Kushner-Stratonovich equation from first principles and its extant numerical approximation methods, ii) Study the feedback particle filters as a way of avoiding resampling in particle filters, iii) Study joint state and parameter estimation in time-continuous settings, iv) Apply the notions studied to linear hyperbolic stochastic differential equations.
The interconnection between Itô integrals and stochastic partial differential equations and those of Stratonovich is introduced in anticipation of feedback particle filters. With these ideas and motivated by the variants of ensemble Kalman-Bucy filters founded on the structure of the innovation process, a feedback particle filter with randomly perturbed innovation is proposed. Moreover, feedback particle filters based on coupling of prediction and analysis measures are proposed. They register a better performance than the bootstrap particle filter at lower ensemble sizes.
We study joint state and parameter estimation, both by means of extended state spaces and by use of dual filters. Feedback particle filters seem to perform well in both cases. Finally, we apply joint state and parameter estimation in the advection and wave equation, whose velocity is spatially varying. Two methods are employed: Metropolis Hastings with filter likelihood and a dual filter comprising of Kalman-Bucy filter and ensemble Kalman-Bucy filter. The former performs better than the latter.
Studying the influence of the updating scheme for MCMC algorithm on spatially extended models is a well known problem. For discrete-time interacting particle systems we study through simulations the effectiveness of a synchronous updating scheme versus the usual sequential one. We compare the speed of convergence of the associated Markov chains from the point of view of the time-to-coalescence arising in the coupling-from-the-past algorithm. Unlike the intuition, the synchronous updating scheme is not always the best one. The distribution of the time-to-coalescence for these spatially extended models is studied too.
Rapid population and economic growth in Southeast Asia has been accompanied by extensive land use change with consequent impacts on catchment hydrology. Modeling methodologies capable of handling changing land use conditions are therefore becoming ever more important and are receiving increasing attention from hydrologists. A recently developed data-assimilation-based framework that allows model parameters to vary through time in response to signals of change in observations is considered for a medium-sized catchment (2880 km(2)) in northern Vietnam experiencing substantial but gradual land cover change. We investigate the efficacy of the method as well as the importance of the chosen model structure in ensuring the success of a time-varying parameter method. The method was used with two lumped daily conceptual models (HBV and HyMOD) that gave good-quality streamflow predictions during pre-change conditions. Although both time-varying parameter models gave improved streamflow predictions under changed conditions compared to the time-invariant parameter model, persistent biases for low flows were apparent in the HyMOD case. It was found that HyMOD was not suited to representing the modified baseflow conditions, resulting in extreme and unrealistic time-varying parameter estimates. This work shows that the chosen model can be critical for ensuring the time-varying parameter framework successfully models streamflow under changing land cover conditions. It can also be used to determine whether land cover changes (and not just meteorological factors) contribute to the observed hydrologic changes in retrospective studies where the lack of a paired control catchment precludes such an assessment.
Toda chains with type A m Lie algebra for multidimensional m-component perfect fluid cosmology
(1998)
Toda chains with type A(m) Lie algebra for multidimensional m-component perfect fluid cosmology
(1999)
This work is an introduction to anisotropic spaces, which have an ω-weight of analytic functions and are generalizations of Lipshitz classes in the polydisc. We prove that these classes form an algebra and are invariant with respect to monomial multiplication. These operators are bounded in these (Lipshitz and Djrbashian) spaces. As an application, we show a theorem about the division by good-inner functions in the mentioned classes is proved.
Toeplitz operators, and ellipticity of boundary value problems with global projection conditions
(2003)
Toeplitz operators, and ellipticity of boundary value problems with global projection conditions
(2003)
Ellipticity of (pseudo-) differential operators A on a compact manifold X with boundary (or with edges) Y is connected with boundary (or edge) conditions of trace and potential type, formulated in terms of global projections on Y together with an additional symbolic structure. This gives rise to operator block matrices A with A in the upper left corner. We study an algebra of such operators, where ellipticity is equivalent to the Fredhom property in suitable scales of spaces: Sobolev spaces on X plus closed subspaces of Sobolev spaces on Y which are the range of corresponding pseudo-differential projections. Moreover, we express parametrices of elliptic elements within our algebra and discuss spectral boundary value problems for differential operators.
Tomographic Reservoir Imaging with DNA-Labeled Silica Nanotracers: The First Field Validation
(2018)
This study presents the first field validation of using DNA-labeled silica nanoparticles as tracers to image subsurface reservoirs by travel time based tomography. During a field campaign in Switzerland, we performed short-pulse tracer tests under a forced hydraulic head gradient to conduct a multisource-multireceiver tracer test and tomographic inversion, determining the two-dimensional hydraulic conductivity field between two vertical wells. Together with three traditional solute dye tracers, we injected spherical silica nanotracers, encoded with synthetic DNA molecules, which are protected by a silica layer against damage due to chemicals, microorganisms, and enzymes. Temporal moment analyses of the recorded tracer concentration breakthrough curves (BTCs) indicate higher mass recovery, less mean residence time, and smaller dispersion of the DNA-labeled nanotracers, compared to solute dye tracers. Importantly, travel time based tomography, using nanotracer BTCs, yields a satisfactory hydraulic conductivity tomogram, validated by the dye tracer results and previous field investigations. These advantages of DNA-labeled nanotracers, in comparison to traditional solute dye tracers, make them well-suited for tomographic reservoir characterizations in fields such as hydrogeology, petroleum engineering, and geothermal energy, particularly with respect to resolving preferential flow paths or the heterogeneity of contact surfaces or by enabling source zone characterizations of dense nonaqueous phase liquids.
Towards the assimilation of tree-ring-width records using ensemble Kalman filtering techniques
(2016)
This paper investigates the applicability of the Vaganov–Shashkin–Lite (VSL) forward model for tree-ring-width chronologies as observation operator within a proxy data assimilation (DA) setting. Based on the principle of limiting factors, VSL combines temperature and moisture time series in a nonlinear fashion to obtain simulated TRW chronologies. When used as observation operator, this modelling approach implies three compounding, challenging features: (1) time averaging, (2) “switching recording” of 2 variables and (3) bounded response windows leading to “thresholded response”. We generate pseudo-TRW observations from a chaotic 2-scale dynamical system, used as a cartoon of the atmosphere-land system, and attempt to assimilate them via ensemble Kalman filtering techniques. Results within our simplified setting reveal that VSL’s nonlinearities may lead to considerable loss of assimilation skill, as compared to the utilization of a time-averaged (TA) linear observation operator. In order to understand this undesired effect, we embed VSL’s formulation into the framework of fuzzy logic (FL) theory, which thereby exposes multiple representations of the principle of limiting factors. DA experiments employing three alternative growth rate functions disclose a strong link between the lack of smoothness of the growth rate function and the loss of optimality in the estimate of the TA state. Accordingly, VSL’s performance as observation operator can be enhanced by resorting to smoother FL representations of the principle of limiting factors. This finding fosters new interpretations of tree-ring-growth limitation processes.
Towards the right Hamiltonians for singular perturbations via regularization and extension theory
(1996)
As a potentially toxic agent on nervous system and bone, the safety of aluminium exposure from adjuvants in vaccines and subcutaneous immune therapy (SCIT) products has to be continuously reevaluated, especially regarding concomitant administrations. For this purpose, knowledge on absorption and disposition of aluminium in plasma and tissues is essential. Pharmacokinetic data after vaccination in humans, however, are not available, and for methodological and ethical reasons difficult to obtain. To overcome these limitations, we discuss the possibility of an in vitro-in silico approach combining a toxicokinetic model for aluminium disposition with biorelevant kinetic absorption parameters from adjuvants. We critically review available kinetic aluminium-26 data for model building and, on the basis of a reparameterized toxicokinetic model (Nolte et al., 2001), we identify main modelling gaps. The potential of in vitro dissolution experiments for the prediction of intramuscular absorption kinetics of aluminium after vaccination is explored. It becomes apparent that there is need for detailed in vitro dissolution and in vivo absorption data to establish an in vitro-in vivo correlation (IVIVC) for aluminium adjuvants. We conclude that a combination of new experimental data and further refinement of the Nolte model has the potential to fill a gap in aluminium risk assessment. (C) 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Broad-spectrum antibiotic combination therapy is frequently applied due to increasing resistance development of infective pathogens. The objective of the present study was to evaluate two common empiric broad-spectrum combination therapies consisting of either linezolid (LZD) or vancomycin (VAN) combined with meropenem (MER) against Staphylococcus aureus (S. aureus) as the most frequent causative pathogen of severe infections. A semimechanistic pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD) model mimicking a simplified bacterial life-cycle of S. aureus was developed upon time-kill curve data to describe the effects of LZD, VAN, and MER alone and in dual combinations. The PK-PD model was successfully (i) evaluated with external data from two clinical S. aureus isolates and further drug combinations and (ii) challenged to predict common clinical PK-PD indices and breakpoints. Finally, clinical trial simulations were performed that revealed that the combination of VAN-MER might be favorable over LZD-MER due to an unfavorable antagonistic interaction between LZD and MER.
This article assesses the distance between the laws of stochastic differential equations with multiplicative Levy noise on path space in terms of their characteristics. The notion of transportation distance on the set of Levy kernels introduced by Kosenkova and Kulik yields a natural and statistically tractable upper bound on the noise sensitivity. This extends recent results for the additive case in terms of coupling distances to the multiplicative case. The strength of this notion is shown in a statistical implementation for simulations and the example of a benchmark time series in paleoclimate.
This article assesses the distance between the laws of stochastic differential equations with multiplicative Lévy noise on path space in terms of their characteristics. The notion of transportation distance on the set of Lévy kernels introduced by Kosenkova and Kulik yields a natural and statistically tractable upper bound on the noise sensitivity. This extends recent results for the additive case in terms of coupling distances to the multiplicative case. The strength of this notion is shown in a statistical implementation for simulations and the example of a benchmark time series in paleoclimate.
Trees and Valuation Rings
(2000)
We analyze a general class of difference operators Hε=Tε+Vε on ℓ2((εZ)d), where Vε is a multi-well potential and ε is a small parameter. We derive full asymptotic expansions of the prefactor of the exponentially small eigenvalue splitting due to interactions between two “wells” (minima) of the potential energy, i.e., for the discrete tunneling effect. We treat both the case where there is a single minimal geodesic (with respect to the natural Finsler metric induced by the leading symbol h0(x,ξ) of Hε) connecting the two minima and the case where the minimal geodesics form an ℓ+1 dimensional manifold, ℓ≥1. These results on the tunneling problem are as sharp as the classical results for the Schrödinger operator in Helffer and Sjöstrand (Commun PDE 9:337–408, 1984). Technically, our approach is pseudo-differential and we adapt techniques from Helffer and Sjöstrand [Analyse semi-classique pour l’équation de Harper (avec application à l’équation de Schrödinger avec champ magnétique), Mémoires de la S.M.F., 2 series, tome 34, pp 1–113, 1988)] and Helffer and Parisse (Ann Inst Henri Poincaré 60(2):147–187, 1994) to our discrete setting.
We analyze a general class of difference operators on where is a multi-well potential and is a small parameter. We decouple the wells by introducing certain Dirichlet operators on regions containing only one potential well, and we shall treat the eigenvalue problem for as a small perturbation of these comparison problems. We describe tunneling by a certain interaction matrix, similar to the analysis for the Schrodinger operator [see Helffer and Sjostrand in Commun Partial Differ Equ 9:337-408, 1984], and estimate the remainder, which is exponentially small and roughly quadratic compared with the interaction matrix.
We analyze a general class of difference operators containing a multi-well potential and a small parameter. We decouple the wells by introducing certain Dirichlet operators on regions containing only one potential well, and we treat the eigenvalue problem as a small perturbation of these comparison problems. We describe tunneling by a certain interaction matrix similar to the analysis for the Schrödinger operator, and estimate the remainder, which is exponentially small and roughly quadratic compared with the interaction matrix.
The evolution of the closed Friedmann Universe with a packet of short scalar waves is considered with the help of the Wheeler-DeWitt equation. The packet ensures conservation of homogeneity and isotropy of the metric on average. It is shown that during tunneling the amplitudes of short waves of a scalar field can increase catastrophically promptly if their influence to the metric is not taken into account. This effect is similar to the Rubakov-effect of catastrophic particle creation calculated already in 1984. In our approach to the problem it is possible to consider a self- consistent dynamics of the expansion of the Universe and amplification of short waves. It results in a decrease of the barrier and interruption of amplification of waves, and we get an exit of the wave function from the quantum to the classically available region.
We construct eta- and rho-invariants for Dirac operators, on the universal covering of a closed manifold, that are invariant under the projective action associated to a 2-cocycle of the fundamental group. We prove an Atiyah-Patodi-Singer index theorem in this setting, as well as its higher generalisation. Applications concern the classification of positive scalar curvature metrics on closed spin manifolds. We also investigate the properties of these twisted invariants for the signature operator and the relation to the higher invariants.
Ulcerative colitis (UC) is part of the inflammatory bowels diseases, and moderate to severe UC patients can be treated with anti-tumour necrosis alpha monoclonal antibodies, including infliximab (IFX). Even though treatment of UC patients by IFX has been in place for over a decade, many gaps in modelling of IFX PK in this population remain. This is even more true for acute severe UC (ASUC) patients for which early prediction of IFX pharmacokinetic (PK) could highly improve treatment outcome. Thus, this review aims to compile and analyse published population PK models of IFX in UC and ASUC patients, and to assess the current knowledge on disease activity impact on IFX PK. For this, a semi-systematic literature search was conducted, from which 26 publications including a population PK model analysis of UC patients receiving IFX therapy were selected. Amongst those, only four developed a model specifically for UC patients, and only three populations included severe UC patients. Investigations of disease activity impact on PK were reported in only 4 of the 14 models selected. In addition, the lack of reported model codes and assessment of predictive performance make the use of published models in a clinical setting challenging. Thus, more comprehensive investigation of PK in UC and ASUC is needed as well as more adequate reports on developed models and their evaluation in order to apply them in a clinical setting.
Understanding and reducing complex systems pharmacology models based on a novel input-response index
(2018)
A growing understanding of complex processes in biology has led to large-scale mechanistic models of pharmacologically relevant processes. These models are increasingly used to study the response of the system to a given input or stimulus, e.g., after drug administration. Understanding the input–response relationship, however, is often a challenging task due to the complexity of the interactions between its constituents as well as the size of the models. An approach that quantifies the importance of the different constituents for a given input–output relationship and allows to reduce the dynamics to its essential features is therefore highly desirable. In this article, we present a novel state- and time-dependent quantity called the input–response index that quantifies the importance of state variables for a given input–response relationship at a particular time. It is based on the concept of time-bounded controllability and observability, and defined with respect to a reference dynamics. In application to the brown snake venom–fibrinogen (Fg) network, the input–response indices give insight into the coordinated action of specific coagulation factors and about those factors that contribute only little to the response. We demonstrate how the indices can be used to reduce large-scale models in a two-step procedure: (i) elimination of states whose dynamics have only minor impact on the input–response relationship, and (ii) proper lumping of the remaining (lower order) model. In application to the brown snake venom–fibrinogen network, this resulted in a reduction from 62 to 8 state variables in the first step, and a further reduction to 5 state variables in the second step. We further illustrate that the sequence, in which a recursive algorithm eliminates and/or lumps state variables, has an impact on the final reduced model. The input–response indices are particularly suited to determine an informed sequence, since they are based on the dynamics of the original system. In summary, the novel measure of importance provides a powerful tool for analysing the complex dynamics of large-scale systems and a means for very efficient model order reduction of nonlinear systems.
In this paper we establish the regularity, exponential stability of global (weak) solutions and existence of uniform compact attractors of semiprocesses, which are generated by the global solutions, of a two-parameter family of operators for the nonlinear 1-d non-autonomous viscoelasticity. We employ the properties of the analytic semigroup to show the compactness for the semiprocess generated by the global solutions.
Untitled
(2005)
Using Causal Effect Networks to Analyze Different Arctic Drivers of Midlatitude Winter Circulation
(2016)
In recent years, the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes have suffered from severe winters like the extreme 2012/13 winter in the eastern United States. These cold spells were linked to a meandering upper-tropospheric jet stream pattern and a negative Arctic Oscillation index (AO). However, the nature of the drivers behind these circulation patterns remains controversial. Various studies have proposed different mechanisms related to changes in the Arctic, most of them related to a reduction in sea ice concentrations or increasing Eurasian snow cover. Here, a novel type of time series analysis, called causal effect networks (CEN), based on graphical models is introduced to assess causal relationships and their time delays between different processes. The effect of different Arctic actors on winter circulation on weekly to monthly time scales is studied, and robust network patterns are found. Barents and Kara sea ice concentrations are detected to be important external drivers of the midlatitude circulation, influencing winter AO via tropospheric mechanisms and through processes involving the stratosphere. Eurasia snow cover is also detected to have a causal effect on sea level pressure in Asia, but its exact role on AO remains unclear. The CEN approach presented in this study overcomes some difficulties in interpreting correlation analyses, complements model experiments for testing hypotheses involving teleconnections, and can be used to assess their validity. The findings confirm that sea ice concentrations in autumn in the Barents and Kara Seas are an important driver of winter circulation in the midlatitudes.
In this work we extract the microphysical properties of aerosols for a collection of measurement cases with low volume depolarization ratio originating from fire sources captured by the Raman lidar located at the National Institute of Optoelectronics (INOE) in Bucharest. Our algorithm was tested not only for pure smoke but also for mixed smoke and urban aerosols of variable age and growth. Applying a sensitivity analysis on initial parameter settings of our retrieval code was proved vital for producing semi-automatized retrievals with a hybrid regularization method developed at the Institute of Mathematics of Potsdam University. A direct quantitative comparison of the retrieved microphysical properties with measurements from a Compact Time of Flight Aerosol Mass Spectrometer (CToF-AMS) is used to validate our algorithm. Microphysical retrievals performed with sun photometer data are also used to explore our results. Focusing on the fine mode we observed remarkable similarities between the retrieved size distribution and the one measured by the AMS. More complicated atmospheric structures and the factor of absorption appear to depend more on particle radius being subject to variation. A good correlation was found between the aerosol effective radius and particle age, using the ratio of lidar ratios (LR: aerosol extinction to backscatter ratios) as an indicator for the latter. Finally, the dependence on relative humidity of aerosol effective radii measured on the ground and within the layers aloft show similar patterns. (C) 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
The International Project for the Evaluation of Educational Achievement (IEA) was formed in the 1950s (Postlethwaite, 1967). Since that time, the IEA has conducted many studies in the area of mathematics, such as the First International Mathematics Study (FIMS) in 1964, the Second International Mathematics Study (SIMS) in 1980-1982, and a series of studies beginning with the Third International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) which has been conducted every 4 years since 1995. According to Stigler et al. (1999), in the FIMS and the SIMS, U.S. students achieved low scores in comparison with students in other countries (p. 1). The TIMSS 1995 “Videotape Classroom Study” was therefore a complement to the earlier studies conducted to learn “more about the instructional and cultural processes that are associated with achievement” (Stigler et al., 1999, p. 1). The TIMSS Videotape Classroom Study is known today as the TIMSS Video Study. From the findings of the TIMSS 1995 Video Study, Stigler and Hiebert (1999) likened teaching to “mountain ranges poking above the surface of the water,” whereby they implied that we might see the mountaintops, but we do not see the hidden parts underneath these mountain ranges (pp. 73-78). By watching the videotaped lessons from Germany, Japan, and the United States again and again, they discovered that “the systems of teaching within each country look similar from lesson to lesson. At least, there are certain recurring features [or patterns] that typify many of the lessons within a country and distinguish the lessons among countries” (pp. 77-78). They also discovered that “teaching is a cultural activity,” so the systems of teaching “must be understood in relation to the cultural beliefs and assumptions that surround them” (pp. 85, 88). From this viewpoint, one of the purposes of this dissertation was to study some cultural aspects of mathematics teaching and relate the results to mathematics teaching and learning in Vietnam. Another research purpose was to carry out a video study in Vietnam to find out the characteristics of Vietnamese mathematics teaching and compare these characteristics with those of other countries. In particular, this dissertation carried out the following research tasks: - Studying the characteristics of teaching and learning in different cultures and relating the results to mathematics teaching and learning in Vietnam - Introducing the TIMSS, the TIMSS Video Study and the advantages of using video study in investigating mathematics teaching and learning - Carrying out the video study in Vietnam to identify the image, scripts and patterns, and the lesson signature of eighth-grade mathematics teaching in Vietnam - Comparing some aspects of mathematics teaching in Vietnam and other countries and identifying the similarities and differences across countries - Studying the demands and challenges of innovating mathematics teaching methods in Vietnam – lessons from the video studies Hopefully, this dissertation will be a useful reference material for pre-service teachers at education universities to understand the nature of teaching and develop their teaching career.
Valuations of Terms
(2003)
Let tau be a type of algebras. There are several commonly used measurements of the complexity of terms of type tau, including the depth or height of a term and the number of variable symbols appearing in a term. In this paper we formalize these various measurements, by defining a complexity or valuation mapping on terms. A valuation of terms is thus a mapping from the absolutely free term algebra of type tau into another algebra of the same type on which an order relation is defined. We develop the interconnections between such term valuations and the equational theory of Universal Algebra. The collection of all varieties of a given type forms a complete lattice which is very complex and difficult to study; valuations of terms offer a new method to study complete sublattices of this lattice
Variational bayesian inference for nonlinear hawkes process with gaussian process self-effects
(2022)
Traditionally, Hawkes processes are used to model time-continuous point processes with history dependence. Here, we propose an extended model where the self-effects are of both excitatory and inhibitory types and follow a Gaussian Process. Whereas previous work either relies on a less flexible parameterization of the model, or requires a large amount of data, our formulation allows for both a flexible model and learning when data are scarce. We continue the line of work of Bayesian inference for Hawkes processes, and derive an inference algorithm by performing inference on an aggregated sum of Gaussian Processes. Approximate Bayesian inference is achieved via data augmentation, and we describe a mean-field variational inference approach to learn the model parameters. To demonstrate the flexibility of the model we apply our methodology on data from different domains and compare it to previously reported results.
In this thesis, we discuss the formulation of variational problems on supermanifolds. Supermanifolds incorporate bosonic as well as fermionic degrees of freedom. Fermionic fields take values in the odd part of an appropriate Grassmann algebra and are thus showing an anticommutative behaviour. However, a systematic treatment of these Grassmann parameters requires a description of spaces as functors, e.g. from the category of Grassmann algberas into the category of sets (or topological spaces, manifolds). After an introduction to the general ideas of this approach, we use it to give a description of the resulting supermanifolds of fields/maps. We show that each map is uniquely characterized by a family of differential operators of appropriate order. Moreover, we demonstrate that each of this maps is uniquely characterized by its component fields, i.e. by the coefficients in a Taylor expansion w.r.t. the odd coordinates. In general, the component fields are only locally defined. We present a way how to circumvent this limitation. In fact, by enlarging the supermanifold in question, we show that it is possible to work with globally defined components. We eventually use this formalism to study variational problems. More precisely, we study a super version of the geodesic and a generalization of harmonic maps to supermanifolds. Equations of motion are derived from an energy functional and we show how to decompose them into components. Finally, in special cases, we can prove the existence of critical points by reducing the problem to equations from ordinary geometric analysis. After solving these component equations, it is possible to show that their solutions give rise to critical points in the functor spaces of fields.
The morphological features in the deviations of the total electron content (TEC) of the ionosphere from the background undisturbed state as possible precursors of the earthquake of January 12, 2010 (21:53 UT (16:53 LT), 18.46A degrees N, 72.5A degrees W, 7.0 M) in Haiti are analyzed. To identify these features, global and regional differential TEC maps based on global 2-h TEC maps provided by NASA in the IONEX format were plotted. For the considered earthquake, long-lived disturbances, presumably of seismic origin, were localized in the near-epicenter area and were accompanied by similar effects in the magnetoconjugate region. Both decreases and increases in the local TEC over the period from 22 UT of January 10 to 08 UT of January 12, 2010 were observed. The horizontal dimensions of the anomalies were similar to 40A degrees in longitude and similar to 20A degrees in latitude, with the magnitude of TEC disturbances reaching similar to 40% relative to the background near the epicenter and more than 50% in the magnetoconjugate area. No significant geomagnetic disturbances within January 1-12, 2010 were observed, i.e., the detected TEC anomalies were manifestations of interplay between processes in the lithosphere-atmosphere-ionosphere system.
We discuss the solution theory of operators of the form del(x) + A, acting on smooth sections of a vector bundle with connection del over a manifold M, where X is a vector field having a critical point with positive linearization at some point p is an element of M. As an operator on a suitable space of smooth sections Gamma(infinity)(U, nu), it fulfills a Fredholm alternative, and the same is true for the adjoint operator. Furthermore, we show that the solutions depend smoothly on the data del, X and A.
In this paper, we discuss the viscosity solutions of the weakly coupled systems of fully nonlinear second order degenerate parabolic equations and their Cauchy-Dirichlet problem. We prove the existence, uniqueness and continuity of viscosity solution by combining Perron's method with the technique of coupled solutions. The results here generalize those in [2] and [3].
Parabolic equations on manifolds with singularities require a new calculus of anisotropic pseudo-differential operators with operator-valued symbols. The paper develops this theory along the lines of sn abstract wedge calculus with strongly continuous groups of isomorphisms on the involved Banach spaces. The corresponding pseodo-diferential operators are continuous in anisotropic wedge Sobolev spaces, and they form an alegbra. There is then introduced the concept of anisotropic parameter-dependent ellipticity, based on an order reduction variant of the pseudo-differential calculus. The theory is appled to a class of parabolic differential operators, and it is proved the invertibility in Sobolev spaces with exponential weights at infinity in time direction.
We study the Volterra property of a class of anisotropic pseudo-differential operators on R x B for a manifold B with edge Y and time-variable t. This exposition belongs to a program for studying parabolicity in such a situation. In the present consideration we establish non-smoothing elements in a subalgebra with anisotropic operator-valued symbols of Mellin type with holomorphic symbols in the complex Mellin covariable from the cone theory, where the covariable t of t extends to symbolswith respect to t to the lower complex v half-plane. The resulting space ofVolterra operators enlarges an approach of Buchholz (Parabolische Pseudodifferentialoperatoren mit operatorwertigen Symbolen. Ph. D. thesis, Universitat Potsdam, 1996) by necessary elements to a new operator algebra containing Volterra parametrices under an appropriate condition of anisotropic ellipticity. Our approach avoids some difficulty in choosing Volterra quantizations in the edge case by generalizing specific achievements from the isotropic edge-calculus, obtained by Seiler (Pseudodifferential calculus on manifolds with non-compact edges, Ph. D. thesis, University of Potsdam, 1997), see also Gil et al. (in: Demuth et al (eds) Mathematical research, vol 100. Akademic Verlag, Berlin, pp 113-137, 1997; Osaka J Math 37: 221-260, 2000).
Vorlesungs-Pflege
(2018)
Ähnlich zu Alterungsprozessen bei Software degenerieren auch Vorlesungen, wenn sie nicht hinreichend gepflegt werden. Die Gründe hierfür werden ebenso beleuchtet wie mögliche Indikatoren und Maßnahmen – der Blick ist dabei immer der eines Informatikers. An drei Vorlesungen wird erläutert, wie der Degeneration von Lehrveranstaltungen
gegengewirkt werden kann. Mangels hinreichend großer empirischer Daten liefert das Paper keine unumstößlichen Wahrheiten. Ein Ziel ist es vielmehr Kollegen, die ähnliche Phänomene beobachten, einen ersten Anker für einen
inneren Diskurs zu bieten. Ein langfristiges Ziel ist die Sammlung eines Katalogs an Maßnahmen zur Pflege von Informatikvorlesungen.
Wahlen
(1998)
Was ist Data Science?
(2018)
In Zusammenhang mit den Entwicklungen der vergangenen Jahre, insbesondere in den Bereichen Big Data, Datenmanagement und Maschinenlernen, hat sich der Umgang mit Daten und deren Analyse wesentlich weiterentwickelt. Mittlerweile wird die Datenwissenschaft als eigene Disziplin angesehen, die auch immer stärker durch entsprechende Studiengänge an Hochschulen repräsentiert wird. Trotz dieser zunehmenden Bedeutung ist jedoch oft unklar, welche konkreten Inhalte mit ihr in Verbindung stehen, da sie in verschiedensten Ausprägungen auftritt. In diesem Beitrag werden daher die hinter der Data Science stehenden informatischen Inhalte durch eine qualitative Analyse der Modulhandbücher etablierter Studiengänge aus diesem Bereich ermittelt und so ein Beitrag zur Charakterisierung dieser Disziplin geleistet. Am Beispiel der Entwicklung eines Data-Literacy-Kompetenzmodells, die als Ausblick skizziert wird, wird die Bedeutung dieser Charakterisierung für die weitere Forschung expliziert.
Um für ein Leben in der digitalen Gesellschaft vorbereitet zu sein, braucht jeder heute in verschiedenen Situationen umfangreiche informatische Grundlagen. Die Bedeutung von Informatik nimmt nicht nur in immer mehr
Bereichen unseres täglichen Lebens zu, sondern auch in immer mehr Ausbildungsrichtungen. Um junge Menschen auf ihr zukünftiges Leben und/oder ihre zukünftige berufliche Tätigkeit vorzubereiten, bieten verschiedene Hochschulen Informatikmodule für Studierende anderer Fachrichtungen an. Die Materialien jener Kurse bilden einen umfangreichen Datenpool, um die für Studierende anderer Fächer bedeutenden Aspekte der Informatik mithilfe eines empirischen Ansatzes zu identifizieren. Im Folgenden werden 70 Module zu informatischer Bildung für Studierende anderer Fachrichtungen analysiert. Die Materialien – Publikationen, Syllabi und Stundentafeln – werden zunächst mit einer qualitativen Inhaltsanalyse nach Mayring untersucht und anschließend quantitativ ausgewertet. Basierend auf der Analyse werden Ziele, zentrale Themen und Typen eingesetzter Werkzeuge identifiziert.
Was misst TIMSS?
(2001)
Bei der Erstellung und Interpretation mathematischer Leistungstests steht die Frage, was eine Aufgabe mißt. Der Artikel stellt mit der strukturalen oder objektiven Hermeneutik eine Methode vor, mit der die verschiedenen Dimensionen der von einer Aufgabe erfassten Fähigkeiten herausgearbeitet werden können. Dabei werden fachliche Anforderungen, Irritationsmomente und das durch die Aufgabe transportierte Bild vom jeweiligen Fach ebenso erfasst wie Momente, die man eher als Testfähigkeit bezeichnen würde.Am Beispiel einer TIMSS-Aufgabe wird diskutiert, dass das von den Testerstellern benutzte theoretische Konstrukt kaum geeignet ist, nachhaltig zu beschreiben, was eine Aufgabe misst.
Als ich anfing, ein Thema für meine Promotion zu erarbeiten, fand ich Massentests ziemlich beeindruckend. TIMSS: über 500000 Schüler getestet. PISA: 180000 Schüler getestet. Ich wollte diese Datenbasis nutzen, um Erkenntnisse für die Gestaltung von Unterricht zu gewinnen. Leider kam ich damit nicht weit. Je tiefer ich mich mit den Tests und den dahinterstehenden Theorien befasste, desto deutlicher schälte sich heraus, dass mit diesen Tests keine neue Erkenntnis generiert werden kann. Fast alle Schlussfolgerungen, die aus den Tests gezogen werden, konnten gar nicht aus den Tests selbst gewonnen werden. Ich konzentrierte mich zunehmend auf die Testaufgaben, weil die Geltung der Aussage eines Tests an der Aufgabe erzeugt wird: In der Aufgabe gerinnt das, was die Tester als „mathematische Leistungsfähigkeit“ konstruieren. Der Schüler wiederum hat nur die Aufgabe vor sich. Es gibt nur „gelöst“ (ein Punkt) und „ungelöst“ (kein Punkt). Damit der Schüler den Punkt bekommt, muss er an der richtigen Stelle ankreuzen, oder er muss etwas hinschrei-ben, wofür der Auswerter einen Punkt gibt. In der Dissertation wird untersucht, was die Aufgaben testen, was also alles in das Konstrukt von „mathematischer Leistungsfähigkeit“ einfließt, und ob es das ist, was der Test testen soll. Es stellte sich durchaus erstaunliches heraus: - Oftmals gibt es so viele Möglichkeiten, zur gewünschten Lösung (die nicht in jedem Fall die richtige Lösung ist) zu gelangen, dass man nicht benennen kann, welche Fähigkeit die Aufgabe eigentlich misst. Das Konstrukt „mathematische Leistungsfähigkeit“ wird damit zu einem zufälligen. - Es werden Komponenten von Testfähigkeit mitgemessen: Viele Aufgaben enthalten Irritationen, welche von testerfahrenen Schülern leichter überwunden werden können als von testunerfahrenen. Es gibt Aufgaben, die gelöst werden können, ohne dass man über die Fähigkeit verfügt, die getestet werden soll. Umgekehrt gibt es Aufgaben, die man eventuell nicht lösen kann, obwohl man über diese Fähigkeit verfügt. Als Kernkompetenz von Testfähigkeit stellt sich heraus, weder das gestellte mathematische Problem noch die angeblichen realen Proble-me ernst zu nehmen, sondern sich statt dessen auf das zu konzentrieren, was die Tester angekreuzt oder hinge-schrieben sehen wollen. Prinzipiell erweist es sich als günstig, mittelmäßig zu arbeiten, auf intellektuelle Tiefe in der Auseinandersetzung mit den Aufgaben also zu verzichten. - Man kann bei Multiple-Choice-Tests raten. Die PISA-Gruppe behauptet zwar, dieses Problem technisch über-winden zu können, dies erweist sich aber als Fehleinschätzung. - Sowohl bei TIMSS als auch bei PISA stellt sich heraus, dass die vorgeblich verwendeten didaktischen und psychologischen Theorien lediglich theoretische Mäntel für eine theoriearme Testerstellung sind. Am Beispiel der Theorie der mentalen Situationsmodelle (zur Bearbeitung von realitätsnahen Aufgaben) wird dies ausführlich exemplarisch ausgearbeitet. Das Problem reproduziert sich in anderen Theoriefeldern. Die Tests werden nicht durch Operationalisierungen von Messkonstrukten erstellt, sondern durch systematisches Zusammenstückeln von Aufgaben. - Bei PISA sollte „Mathematical Literacy“ getestet werden. Verkürzt sollte das die Fähigkeit sein, „die Rolle, die Mathematik in der Welt spielt, zu erkennen und zu verstehen, begründete mathematische Urteile abzugeben und sich auf eine Weise mit der Mathematik zu befassen, die den Anforderungen des gegenwärtigen und künftigen Lebens einer Person als eines konstruktiven, engagierten und reflektierten Bürgers entspricht“ (PISA-Eigendarstellung). Von all dem kann angesichts der Aufgaben keine Rede sein. - Bei der Untersuchung des PISA-Tests drängte sich ein mathematikdidaktischer Habitus auf, der eine separate Untersuchung erzwang. Ich habe ihn unter dem Stichwort der „Abkehr von der Sache“ zusammengefasst. Er ist geprägt von Zerstörungen des Mathematischen bei gleichzeitiger Überbetonung des Fachsprachlichen und durch Verwerfungen des Mathematischen und des Realen bei realitätsnahen Aufgaben. Letzteres gründet in der Nicht-beachtung der Authentizität sowohl des Realen als auch des Mathematischen. Die Arbeit versammelt neben den Untersuchungen zu TIMSS und PISA ein ausführliches Kapitel über das Prob-lem des Testens und eine Darstellung der Methodologie und Praxis der Objektiven Hermeneutik.
In the eighties, the analysis of satellite altimetry data leads to the major discovery of gravity lineations in the oceans, with wavelengths between 200 and 1400 km. While the existence of the 200 km scale undulations is widely accepted, undulations at scales larger than 400 km are still a matter of debate. In this paper, we revisit the topic of the large-scale geoid undulations over the oceans in the light of the satellite gravity data provided by the GRACE mission, considerably more precise than the altimetry data at wavelengths larger than 400 km. First, we develop a dedicated method of directional Poisson wavelet analysis on the sphere with significance testing, in order to detect and characterize directional structures in geophysical data on the sphere at different spatial scales. This method is particularly well suited for potential field analysis. We validate it on a series of synthetic tests, and then apply it to analyze recent gravity models, as well as a bathymetry data set independent from gravity. Our analysis confirms the existence of gravity undulations at large scale in the oceans, with characteristic scales between 600 and 2000 km. Their direction correlates well with present-day plate motion over the Pacific ocean, where they are particularly clear, and associated with a conjugate direction at 1500 km scale. A major finding is that the 2000 km scale geoid undulations dominate and had never been so clearly observed previously. This is due to the great precision of GRACE data at those wavelengths. Given the large scale of these undulations, they are most likely related to mantle processes. Taking into account observations and models from other geophysical information, as seismological tomography, convection and geochemical models and electrical conductivity in the mantle, we conceive that all these inputs indicate a directional fabric of the mantle flows at depth, reflecting how the history of subduction influences the organization of lower mantle upwellings.
We define weak boundary values of solutions to those nonlinear differential equations which appear as Euler-Lagrange equations of variational problems. As a result we initiate the theory of Lagrangian boundary value problems in spaces of appropriate smoothness. We also analyse if the concept of mapping degree of current importance applies to the study of Lagrangian problems.
Weak Hypersubstitutions
(2002)
The present paper is intended to provide the basis for the study of weakly differentiable functions on rectifiable varifolds with locally bounded first variation. The concept proposed here is defined by means of integration-by-parts identities for certain compositions with smooth functions. In this class, the idea of zero boundary values is realised using the relative perimeter of superlevel sets. Results include a variety of Sobolev Poincare-type embeddings, embeddings into spaces of continuous and sometimes Holder-continuous functions, and point wise differentiability results both of approximate and integral type as well as coarea formulae. As a prerequisite for this study, decomposition properties of such varifolds and a relative isoperimetric inequality are established. Both involve a concept of distributional boundary of a set introduced for this purpose. As applications, the finiteness of the geodesic distance associated with varifolds with suitable summability of the mean curvature and a characterisation of curvature varifolds are obtained.
We consider a solution of the nonlinear Klein-Gordon equation perturbed by a parametric driver. The frequency of parametric perturbation varies slowly and passes through a resonant value, which leads to a solution change. We obtain a new connection formula for the asymptotic solution before and after the resonance.