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To achieve the goal of keeping global warming well below 2 °C, private investors have to shift capital from brown to green infrastructures and technologies and provide additional green investment. In this paper, we present a game-theoretic perspective on the challenge of triggering such investments. The question of climate change mitigation is often related to the prisoner's dilemma, a game with one Nash equilibrium. However, the authors perceive investment for mitigation and adaptation as a coordination problem of selecting among multiple equilibria. To illustrate this, we model a non-cooperative coordination game, related to the stag hunt, with a brown equilibrium with lower payoffs that can be achieved single-handedly and a green equilibrium with higher payoffs that requires coordination. As multiple experiments show, in such games actors often fail to coordinate on a payoff dominant equilibrium due to uncertainty. Thus, we discuss how uncertainty could be reduced along two options: one that concerns a change in the payoff structure of the game and another that concerns subjective probabilities.
To reach its climate targets, the European Union has to implement a major sustainability transition in the coming decades. While the socio-technical change required for this transition is well discussed in the academic literature, the economics that go along with it are often reduced to a cost-benefit perspective of climate policy measures. By investigating climate change mitigation as a coordination problem, this thesis offers a novel perspective: It integrates the economic and the socio-technical dimension and thus allows to better understand the opportunities of a sustainability transition in Europe.
First, a game theoretic framework is developed to illustrate coordination on green or brown investment from an agent perspective. A model based on the coordination game "stag hunt" is used to discuss the influence of narratives and signals for green investment as a means to coordinate expectations towards green growth. Public and private green investment impulses – triggered by credible climate policy measures and targets – serve as an example for a green growth perspective for Europe in line with a sustainability transition. This perspective also embodies a critical view on classical analyses of climate policy measures.
Secondly, this analysis is enriched with empirical results derived from stakeholder involvement. In interviews and with a survey among European insurance companies, coordination mechanisms such as market and policy signals are identified and evaluated by their impact on investment strategies for green infrastructure. The latter, here defined as renewable energy, electricity distribution and transmission as well as energy efficiency improvements, is considered a central element of the transition to a low-carbon society.
Thirdly, this thesis identifies and analyzes major criticisms raised towards stakeholder involvement in sustainability science. On a conceptual level, different ways of conducting such qualitative research are classified. This conceptualization is then evaluated by scientists, thereby generating empirical evidence on ideals and practices of stakeholder involvement in sustainability science.
Through the combination of theoretical and empirical research on coordination problems, this thesis offers several contributions: On the one hand, it outlines an approach that allows to assess the economic opportunities of sustainability transitions. This is helpful for policy makers in Europe that are striving to implement climate policy measures addressing the targets of the Paris Agreement as well as to encourage a shift of investments towards green infrastructure. On the other hand, this thesis enhances the stabilization of the theoretical foundations in sustainability science. Therefore, it can aid researchers who involve stakeholders when studying sustainability transitions.