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Analysis of spatial and temporal extreme monsoonal rainfall over South Asia using complex networks
(2012)
We present a detailed analysis of summer monsoon rainfall over the Indian peninsular using nonlinear spatial correlations. This analysis is carried out employing the tools of complex networks and a measure of nonlinear correlation for point processes such as rainfall, called event synchronization. This study provides valuable insights into the spatial organization, scales, and structure of the 90th and 94th percentile rainfall events during the Indian summer monsoon (June-September). We furthermore analyse the influence of different critical synoptic atmospheric systems and the impact of the steep Himalayan topography on rainfall patterns. The presented method not only helps us in visualising the structure of the extreme-event rainfall fields, but also identifies the water vapor pathways and decadal-scale moisture sinks over the region. Furthermore a simple scheme based on complex networks is presented to decipher the spatial intricacies and temporal evolution of monsoonal rainfall patterns over the last 6 decades.
The purity of the analysed samples (e.g. quartz) with respect to chemical composition and radionuclide contamination is essential for geomorphologic applications using so-called terrestrial cosmogenic nuclides (TCNs). To guarantee this, numerous cleaning and dissolution procedures have been developed. At the DREsden Accelerator Mass Spectrometry (DREAMS) facility, we also work on enhancing the chemical quartz-enrichment methodology from bulk rock and dissolution of quartz. Repeated exposure of the bulk material to acid mixtures (HCl/H2SiF6) at room temperature for cleaning and its monitoring by optical microscopy works for most quartz-rich samples. The quartz dissolution in HF under rather mild conditions (at room temperature on a shaker-table) has the advantage to leave difficult-to-dissolve minerals (e.g., tourmaline, zircon, rutile, sillimanite, kyanite, chromite, corundum), not separated by other physical methods before, as residue. Our comparison with a high-temperature dissolution method (in a microwave) indicates an additional amount of interfering elements, such as in average about 3 mg of Ti, more than 7 mg of Al, and about 22 mu g of Be (for 50 g SiO2), is added to the sample, hence showing the superiority of our mild method. This way, we reduce problems for chemistry and AMS, but also ensure better comparability to production rates of cleaner stoichiometric quartz from calibration sites.
Multiple landslide clusters record quaternary climate changes in the northwestern Argentine andes
(2003)
The chronology of multiple landslide deposits and related lake sediments in the semi-arid eastern Argentine Cordillera suggests that major mass movements cluster in two time periods during the Quaternary, i.e. between 40 and 25 and after 5 14C kyr BP. These clusters may correspond to the Minchin (maximum at around 28-27 14C kyr BP) and Titicaca wet periods (after 3.9 14C kyr BP). The more humid conditions apparently caused enhanced landsliding in this environment. In contrast, no landslide-related damming and associated lake sediments occurred during the Coipasa (11.5- 10 14C yr BP) and Tauca wet periods (14.5-11 14C yr BP). The two clusters at 40-25 and after 5 14C kyr BP may correspond to periods where the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Tropical Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature Variability (TAV) were active. This, however, was not the case during the Coipasa and Tauca wet periods. Lake-balance modelling of a landslide-dammed lake suggests a 10-15% increase in precipitation and a 3-4 ° C decrease in temperature at ~30 14C kyr BP as compared to the present. In addition, time-series analysis reveals a strong ENSO and TAV during that time. The landslide clusters in northwestern Argentina are therefore best explained by periods of more humid and more variable climates.
Forecasting the onset and withdrawal of the Indian summer monsoon is crucial for the life and prosperity of more than one billion inhabitants of the Indian subcontinent. However, accurate prediction of monsoon timing remains a challenge, despite numerous efforts. Here we present a method for prediction of monsoon timing based on a critical transition precursor. We identify geographic regions-tipping elements of the monsoon-and use them as observation locations for predicting onset and withdrawal dates. Unlike most predictability methods, our approach does not rely on precipitation analysis but on air temperature and relative humidity, which are well represented both in models and observations. The proposed method allows to predict onset 2 weeks earlier and withdrawal dates 1.5 months earlier than existing methods. In addition, it enables to correctly forecast monsoon duration for some anomalous years, often associated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation.