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Institute
- Institut für Geowissenschaften (276) (remove)
OpenForecast
(2019)
The development and deployment of new operational runoff forecasting systems are a strong focus of the scientific community due to the crucial importance of reliable and timely runoff predictions for early warnings of floods and flashfloods for local businesses and communities. OpenForecast, the first operational runoff forecasting system in Russia, open for public use, is presented in this study. We developed OpenForecast based only on open-source software and data-GR4J hydrological model, ERA-Interim meteorological reanalysis, and ICON deterministic short-range meteorological forecasts. Daily forecasts were generated for two basins in the European part of Russia. Simulation results showed a limited efficiency in reproducing the spring flood of 2019. Although the simulations managed to capture the timing of flood peaks, they failed in estimating flood volume. However, further implementation of the parsimonious data assimilation technique significantly alleviates simulation errors. The revealed limitations of the proposed operational runoff forecasting system provided a foundation to outline its further development and improvement.
OpenForecast
(2019)
The development and deployment of new operational runoff forecasting systems are a strong focus of the scientific community due to the crucial importance of reliable and timely runoff predictions for early warnings of floods and flashfloods for local businesses and communities. OpenForecast, the first operational runoff forecasting system in Russia, open for public use, is presented in this study. We developed OpenForecast based only on open-source software and data-GR4J hydrological model, ERA-Interim meteorological reanalysis, and ICON deterministic short-range meteorological forecasts. Daily forecasts were generated for two basins in the European part of Russia. Simulation results showed a limited efficiency in reproducing the spring flood of 2019. Although the simulations managed to capture the timing of flood peaks, they failed in estimating flood volume. However, further implementation of the parsimonious data assimilation technique significantly alleviates simulation errors. The revealed limitations of the proposed operational runoff forecasting system provided a foundation to outline its further development and improvement.
The removal, redistribution, and transient storage of sediments in tectonically active mountain belts is thought to exert a first-order control on shallow crustal stresses, fault activity, and hence on the spatiotemporal pattern of regional deformation processes. Accordingly, sediment loading and unloading cycles in intermontane sedimentary basins may inhibit or promote intrabasinal faulting, respectively, but unambiguous evidence for this potential link has been elusive so far. Here we combine 2D numerical experiments that simulate contractional deformation in a broken-foreland setting (i.e., a foreland where shortening is diachronously absorbed by spatially disparate, reverse faults uplifting basement blocks) with field data from intermontane basins in the NW Argentine Andes. Our modeling results suggest that thicker sedimentary fills (>0.7-1.0 km) may suppress basinal faulting processes, while thinner fills (<0.7 km) tend to delay faulting. Conversely, the removal of sedimentary loads via fluvial incision and basin excavation promotes renewed intrabasinal faulting. These results help to better understand the tectono-sedimentary history of intermontane basins that straddle the eastern border of the Andean Plateau in northwestern Argentina. For example, the Santa Maria and the Humahuaca basins record intrabasinal deformation during or after sediment unloading, while the Quebrada del Toro Basin reflects the suppression of intrabasinal faulting due to loading by coarse conglomerates. We conclude that sedimentary loading and unloading cycles may exert a fundamental control on spatiotemporal deformation patterns in intermontane basins of tectonically active broken forelands. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
In Germany, the irrigation sector accounts for only 1% of water use. In recent years, however, this sector has attracted more attention due to the occurrence of severe drought periods. Irrigation scheduling systems could support adaptation strategies but little is known about current providers, performance and users. In this study we aimed to depict the current situation of the existence and functioning of irrigation scheduling systems available in Germany. Six methods were identified and assessed based on direct interviews with end-users and a comparative analysis. The results showed a positive feedback from the users. However, the recommendations were rarely implemented, while only the seasonal irrigation requirement was considered to support actual water abstraction. These results were corroborated by the comparative analysis. Five of the six irrigation scheduling systems estimated the seasonal irrigation amount consistently, while wider differences were found by looking at the irrigation season and at the number of irrigations. Overall, it is found that irrigation support systems are valuable tools for supporting adaptation strategies to fast changes in agro-environmental conditions. However, specific assessments based on real measurements should be considered in order to improve the performance of the systems and provide more consistent support to end-users. (c) 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
In this paper, we examine the influence of the 27 October 2012, M-w 7.8 earthquake on landslide occurrence in the southern half of Haida Gwaii (formerly Queen Charlotte Islands), British Columbia, Canada. Our 1350 km(2) study area is undisturbed, primarily forested terrain that has not experienced road building or timber harvesting. Our inventory of landslide polygons is based on optical airborne and spaceborne images acquired between 2007 and 2018, from which we extracted and mapped 446 individual landslides (an average of 33 landslides per 100 km(2)). The landslide rate in years without major earthquakes averages 19.4 per year, or 1.4/100 km(2)/year, and the annual average area covered by non-seismically triggered landslides is 35 ha/year. The number of landslides identified in imagery closely following the 2012 earthquake, and probably triggered by it, is 244 or an average of about 18 landslides per 100 km(2). These landslides cover a total area of 461 ha. In the following years-2013-2016 and 2016-2018-the number of landslides fell, respectively, to 26 and 13.5 landslides per year. In non-earthquake years, most landslides happen on south-facing slopes, facing the prevailing winds. In contrast, during or immediately after the earthquake, up to 32% of the landslides occurred on north and northwest-facing slopes. Although we could not find imagery from the day after the earthquake, overview reconnaissance flights 10 and 16 days later showed that most of the landslides were recent, suggesting they were co-seismic.
The Seismic Hazard Inferred from Tectonics based on the Global Strain Rate Map (SHIFT_GSRM) earthquake forecast was designed to provide high-resolution estimates of global shallow seismicity to be used in seismic hazard assessment. This model combines geodetic strain rates with global earthquake parameters to characterize long-term rates of seismic moment and earthquake activity. Although SHIFT_GSRM properly computes seismicity rates in seismically active continental regions, it underestimates earthquake rates in subduction zones by an average factor of approximately 3. We present a complementary method to SHIFT_GSRM to more accurately forecast earthquake rates in 37 subduction segments, based on the conservation of moment principle and the use of regional interface seismicity parameters, such as subduction dip angles, corner magnitudes, and coupled seismogenic thicknesses. In seven progressive steps, we find that SHIFT_GSRM earthquake-rate underpredictions are mainly due to the utilization of a global probability function of seismic moment release that poorly captures the great variability among subduction megathrust interfaces. Retrospective test results show that the forecast is consistent with the observations during the 1 January 1977 to 31 December 2014 period. Moreover, successful pseudoprospective evaluations for the 1 January 2015 to 31 December 2018 period demonstrate the power of the regionalized earthquake model to properly estimate subduction-zone seismicity.
Hyperspectral remote sensing of the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of low Arctic vegetation
(2019)
Arctic tundra ecosystems are experiencing warming twice the global average and Arctic vegetation is responding in complex and heterogeneous ways. Shifting productivity, growth, species composition, and phenology at local and regional scales have implications for ecosystem functioning as well as the global carbon and energy balance. Optical remote sensing is an effective tool for monitoring ecosystem functioning in this remote biome. However, limited field-based spectral characterization of the spatial and temporal heterogeneity limits the accuracy of quantitative optical remote sensing at landscape scales. To address this research gap and support current and future satellite missions, three central research questions were posed:
• Does canopy-level spectral variability differ between dominant low Arctic vegetation communities and does this variability change between major phenological phases?
• How does canopy-level vegetation colour images recorded with high and low spectral resolution devices relate to phenological changes in leaf-level photosynthetic pigment concentrations?
• How does spatial aggregation of high spectral resolution data from the ground to satellite scale influence low Arctic tundra vegetation signatures and thereby what is the potential of upcoming hyperspectral spaceborne systems for low Arctic vegetation characterization?
To answer these questions a unique and detailed database was assembled. Field-based canopy-level spectral reflectance measurements, nadir digital photographs, and photosynthetic pigment concentrations of dominant low Arctic vegetation communities were acquired at three major phenological phases representing early, peak and late season. Data were collected in 2015 and 2016 in the Toolik Lake Research Natural Area located in north central Alaska on the North Slope of the Brooks Range. In addition to field data an aerial AISA hyperspectral image was acquired in the late season of 2016. Simulations of broadband Sentinel-2 and hyperspectral Environmental and Mapping Analysis Program (EnMAP) satellite reflectance spectra from ground-based reflectance spectra as well as simulations of EnMAP imagery from aerial hyperspectral imagery were also obtained.
Results showed that canopy-level spectral variability within and between vegetation communities differed by phenological phase. The late season was identified as the most discriminative for identifying many dominant vegetation communities using both ground-based and simulated hyperspectral reflectance spectra. This was due to an overall reduction in spectral variability and comparable or greater differences in spectral reflectance between vegetation communities in the visible near infrared spectrum.
Red, green, and blue (RGB) indices extracted from nadir digital photographs and pigment-driven vegetation indices extracted from ground-based spectral measurements showed strong significant relationships. RGB indices also showed moderate relationships with chlorophyll and carotenoid pigment concentrations. The observed relationships with the broadband RGB channels of the digital camera indicate that vegetation colour strongly influences the response of pigment-driven spectral indices and digital cameras can track the seasonal development and degradation of photosynthetic pigments.
Spatial aggregation of hyperspectral data from the ground to airborne, to simulated satel-lite scale was influenced by non-photosynthetic components as demonstrated by the distinct shift of the red edge to shorter wavelengths. Correspondence between spectral reflectance at the three scales was highest in the red spectrum and lowest in the near infra-red. By artificially mixing litter spectra at different proportions to ground-based spectra, correspondence with aerial and satellite spectra increased. Greater proportions of litter were required to achieve correspondence at the satellite scale.
Overall this thesis found that integrating multiple temporal, spectral, and spatial data is necessary to monitor the complexity and heterogeneity of Arctic tundra ecosystems. The identification of spectrally similar vegetation communities can be optimized using non-peak season hyperspectral data leading to more detailed identification of vegetation communities. The results also highlight the power of vegetation colour to link ground-based and satellite data. Finally, a detailed characterization non-photosynthetic ecosystem components is crucial for accurate interpretation of vegetation signals at landscape scales.
Growing attention to phytoplankton mixotrophy as a trophic strategy has led to significant revisions of traditional pelagic food web models and ecosystem functioning. Although some empirical estimates of mixotrophy do exist, a much broader set of in situ measurements are required to (i) identify which organisms are acting as mixotrophs in real time and to (ii) assess the contribution of their heterotrophy to biogeochemical cycling. Estimates are needed through time and across space to evaluate which environmental conditions or habitats favour mixotrophy: conditions still largely unknown. We review methodologies currently available to plankton ecologists to undertake estimates of plankton mixotrophy, in particular nanophytoplankton phago-mixotrophy. Methods are based largely on fluorescent or isotopic tracers, but also take advantage of genomics to identify phylotypes and function. We also suggest novel methods on the cusp of use for phago-mixotrophy assessment, including single-cell measurements improving our capacity to estimate mixotrophic activity and rates in wild plankton communities down to the single-cell level. Future methods will benefit from advances in nanotechnology, micromanipulation and microscopy combined with stable isotope and genomic methodologies. Improved estimates of mixotrophy will enable more reliable models to predict changes in food web structure and biogeochemical flows in a rapidly changing world.
The sedimentary record of the Dead Sea provides an exceptional high-resolution archive of past climate changes in the drought-sensitive eastern Mediterranean-Levant, a key region for the development of humankind at the boundary of global climate belts. Moreover, it is the only deep hypersaline lake known to have deposited long sequences of finely laminated, annually deposited sediments (i.e. varves) of varied compositions, including aragonite, gypsum, halite and clastic sediments. Vast efforts have been made over the years to decipher the environmental information stored in these evaporitic-clastic sequences spanning from the Pleistocene Lake Amora to the Holocene Dead Sea. A general characterisation of sediment facies has been derived from exposed sediment sections, as well as from shallow- and deep-water sediment cores. During high lake stands and episodes of positive water budget, mostly during glacial times, alternating aragonite and detritus laminae (‘aad’ facies) were accumulated, whereas during low lake stands and droughts, prevailing during interglacials, laminated detritus (‘ld’ facies) and laminated halite (‘lh’ facies) dominate the sequence. In this paper, we (i) review the three types of laminated sediments of the Dead Sea sedimentary record (‘aad’, ‘ld’ and ‘lh’ facies), (ii) discuss their modes of formation, deposition and accumulation, and their interpretation as varves, and (iii) illustrate how Dead Sea varves are utilized for palaeoclimate reconstructions and for establishing floating chronologies.
Preparatory mechanisms accompanying or leading to nucleation of larger earthquakes have been observed at both laboratory and field scales, but conditions favoring the occurrence of observable preparatory processes are still largely unknown. In particular, it remains a matter of debate why some earthquakes occur spontaneously without noticeable precursors as opposed to events that are preceded by an extended failure process. In this study, we have generated new high-resolution seismicity catalogs framing the occurrence of 20 M-L > 2.5 earthquakes at The Geysers geothermal field in California. To this end, a seismicity catalog of the 11 days framing each large event was created. We selected 20 sequences sampling different hypocentral depths and hydraulic conditions within the field. Seismic activity and magnitude frequency distributions displayed by the different earthquake sequences are correlated with their location within the reservoir. Sequences located in the northwestern part of the reservoir show overall increased seismic activity and low b values, while the southeastern part is dominated by decreased seismic activity and higher b values. Periods of high injection coincide with high b values and vice versa. These observations potentially reflect varying differential and mean stresses and damage of the reservoir rocks across the field. About 50% of analyzed sequences exhibit no change in seismicity rate in response to the large main event. However, we find complex waveforms at the onset of the main earthquake, suggesting that small ruptures spontaneously grow into or trigger larger events.