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Plasma carotenoids, tocopherols, and retinol in the age-stratified (35–74 years) general population
(2016)
Blood micronutrient status may change with age. We analyzed plasma carotenoids, α-/γ-tocopherol, and retinol and their associations with age, demographic characteristics, and dietary habits (assessed by a short food frequency questionnaire) in a cross-sectional study of 2118 women and men (age-stratified from 35 to 74 years) of the general population from six European countries. Higher age was associated with lower lycopene and α-/β-carotene and higher β-cryptoxanthin, lutein, zeaxanthin, α-/γ-tocopherol, and retinol levels. Significant correlations with age were observed for lycopene (r = −0.248), α-tocopherol (r = 0.208), α-carotene (r = −0.112), and β-cryptoxanthin (r = 0.125; all p < 0.001). Age was inversely associated with lycopene (−6.5% per five-year age increase) and this association remained in the multiple regression model with the significant predictors (covariables) being country, season, cholesterol, gender, smoking status, body mass index (BMI (kg/m2)), and dietary habits. The positive association of α-tocopherol with age remained when all covariates including cholesterol and use of vitamin supplements were included (1.7% vs. 2.4% per five-year age increase). The association of higher β-cryptoxanthin with higher age was no longer statistically significant after adjustment for fruit consumption, whereas the inverse association of α-carotene with age remained in the fully adjusted multivariable model (−4.8% vs. −3.8% per five-year age increase). We conclude from our study that age is an independent predictor of plasma lycopene, α-tocopherol, and α-carotene.
To understand past flood changes in the Rhine catchment and in particular the role of anthropogenic climate change in extreme flows, an attribution study relying on a proper GCM (general circulation model) downscaling is needed. A downscaling based on conditioning a stochastic weather generator on weather patterns is a promising approach. This approach assumes a strong link between weather patterns and local climate, and sufficient GCM skill in reproducing weather pattern climatology. These presuppositions are unprecedentedly evaluated here using 111 years of daily climate data from 490 stations in the Rhine basin and comprehensively testing the number of classification parameters and GCM weather pattern characteristics. A classification based on a combination of mean sea level pressure, temperature, and humidity from the ERA20C reanalysis of atmospheric fields over central Europe with 40 weather types was found to be the most appropriate for stratifying six local climate variables. The corresponding skill is quite diverse though, ranging from good for radiation to poor for precipitation. Especially for the latter it was apparent that pressure fields alone cannot sufficiently stratify local variability. To test the skill of the latest generation of GCMs from the CMIP5 ensemble in reproducing the frequency, seasonality, and persistence of the derived weather patterns, output from 15 GCMs is evaluated. Most GCMs are able to capture these characteristics well, but some models showed consistent deviations in all three evaluation criteria and should be excluded from further attribution analysis.
Sexual aggression is a serious threat to young people's sexual health in Europe, but establishing the exact scale of the problem has been hampered by a variety of conceptual and methodological problems. This article presents a framework for studying youth sexual aggression that addresses both prevalence and risk factors of victimisation and perpetration. It proposes a research tool to comprehensively assess the perpetration of, and victimisation by, sexual aggression that captures different coercive strategies, sexual acts, victim–perpetrator relations, and gender constellations. The instrument is rooted in a clear conceptual definition of sexual aggression and was pilot-tested in 10 countries of the European Union (EU). Furthermore, a list of good practice criteria is proposed to promote the quality and comparability of research on youth sexual aggression in Europe. A multilevel approach combining individual-level and country-level predictors of sexual aggression is outlined and illustrated with data from the pilot study in 10 countries.
Experience has shown that river floods can significantly hamper the reliability of railway networks and cause extensive structural damage and disruption. As a result, the national railway operator in Austria had to cope with financial losses of more than EUR 100 million due to flooding in recent years. Comprehensive information on potential flood risk hot spots as well as on expected flood damage in Austria is therefore needed for strategic flood risk management. In view of this, the flood damage model RAIL (RAilway Infrastructure Loss) was applied to estimate (1) the expected structural flood damage and (2) the resulting repair costs of railway infrastructure due to a 30-, 100- and 300-year flood in the Austrian Mur River catchment. The results were then used to calculate the expected annual damage of the railway subnetwork and subsequently analysed in terms of their sensitivity to key model assumptions. Additionally, the impact of risk aversion on the estimates was investigated, and the overall results were briefly discussed against the background of climate change and possibly resulting changes in flood risk. The findings indicate that the RAIL model is capable of supporting decision-making in risk management by providing comprehensive risk information on the catchment level. It is furthermore demonstrated that an increased risk aversion of the railway operator has a marked influence on flood damage estimates for the study area and, hence, should be considered with regard to the development of risk management strategies.
The effect of methods of statistical downscaling of daily precipitation on changes in extreme flow indices under a plausible future climate change scenario was investigated in 11 catchments selected from 9 countries in different parts of Europe. The catchments vary from 67 to 6171 km(2) in size and cover different climate zones. 15 regional climate model outputs and 8 different statistical downscaling methods, which are broadly categorized as change factor and bias correction based methods, were used for the comparative analyses. Different hydrological models were implemented in different catchments to simulate daily runoff. A set of flood indices were derived from daily flows and their changes have been evaluated by comparing their values derived from simulations corresponding to the current and future climate. Most of the implemented downscaling methods project an increase in the extreme flow indices in most of the catchments. The catchments where the extremes are expected to increase have a rainfall dominated flood regime. In these catchments, the downscaling methods also project an increase in the extreme precipitation in the seasons when the extreme flows occur. In catchments where the flooding is mainly caused by spring/summer snowmelt, the downscaling methods project a decrease in the extreme flows in three of the four catchments considered. A major portion of the variability in the projected changes in the extreme flow indices is attributable to the variability of the climate model ensemble, although the statistical downscaling methods contribute 35-60% of the total variance. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Zersplitterung statt Einheit
(2016)
Das frühe 20. Jahrhundert brachte in Europa eine politische Ideologie hervor, die sich rasch auf dem Kontinent ausbreitete und ihn nachhaltig prägte: den Faschismus. In den Fokus der Geschichtswissenschaft, aber auch der Medien und der Unterhaltungsindustrie rückten dabei vor allem der italienische Faschismus und der deutsche Nationalsozialismus. Doch auch in anderen europäischen Staaten formierten sich in der Zwischenkriegszeit faschistische Bewegungen, die in einigen Fällen mehr, in anderen Fällen weniger Erfolg hatten. Die vorliegende Arbeit beschäftigt sich mit dem Phänomen Faschismus in einem dieser Staaten, der oft als Vorreiter der modernen Demokratie angesehen wird: Großbritannien.
Den Untersuchungen liegt die zentrale Frage zugrunde, warum der britische Faschismus in den turbulenten Jahren zwischen den beiden Weltkriegen nicht denselben Erfolg wie in Deutschland oder Italien erringen und zu einer bestimmenden politischen Kraft aufsteigen konnte. Zur Klärung dieser Frage werden zwei Aspekte betrachtet. Zum einen untersucht die Arbeit eine Auswahl an faschistischen Bewegungen, die sich in dieser Zeit gebildet hatten und politisch aktiv wurden. Die persönlichen Einstellungen, politischen Ambitionen und gegenseitigen Differenzen der jeweiligen Führungsfiguren spielen dabei ebenso eine Rolle wie das politische Programm und die Erfolgsgeschichte ihrer Bewegungen. Der zweite Teil fokussiert die britische Gesellschaft und beleuchtet die Rolle der Bevölkerung sowie die politischen und soziokulturellen Umstände in Großbritannien.
Mithilfe dieser personenbezogenen sowie politik- und gesellschaftszentrierten Analyse sollen die Gründe für den Misserfolg des britischen Faschismus in der Zwischenkriegszeit ermittelt werden. Neben einschlägiger Sekundärliteratur stützt sich die Arbeit auch auf ausgewähltes Quellenmaterial. Zeitgenössische Zeitungsartikel sowie die von den zu untersuchenden Personen verfassten Werke sollen einen detaillierteren Einblick in die politischen Absichten und persönlichen Intentionen der Bewegungen und ihrer Protagonisten liefern.