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Inhalt: Immobilienindizes in Deutschland -Überblick -Immobilienindex der BulwienGesa AG Zeitliche Disaggregation von Indexreihen mit Hilfe kubischer Splines -Problemstellung -Ermittlung der Polynomialkoeffizienten und Interpolation der Zwischenwerte -Anwendung des Splines auf den Halifax House Price Index Erzeugung vierteljährlicher Indexreihen auf der Grundlage von Daten der BulwienGesa AG
Eine Klasse von statistischen Tests zur Spezifikation von Logit-Modellen wird vorgestellt. Diese Tests sind Adaptionen von allgemeineren Spezifikationstests nichtlinearer Modelle. Die theoretische Anwendbarkeit der Tests wird dargelegt und die praktische Anwendbarkeit in Simulationsstudien erörtert. Eine konkrete Anwendung auf einen Datensatz und ein multinomiales Logit-Modell zur Produktwahl wird präsentiert.
In der Praxis stellt die Korrelation eines der wesentlichsten Zusammenhangsmaße dar. Doch die Anwendung dieses Instruments ist in vielen Fällen sehr kritisch zu beurteilen. So enthalten gerade bei Zeitreihen die Ausgangsdaten oft temporale Trends, die zu einem zu hohen Zusammenhangsmaß führen. Gerade bei der Arbeit mit Finanzdaten wird allerdings mit den Differenzen oder sogar mit den prozentualen Änderungen gearbeitet. Hier sind die Trends im wesentlichen extrahiert. Die Daten sind somit fast immer stationär und die Instrumente der linearen Regression damit anwendbar. Auch die Korrelation kann somit problemlos ermittelt werden. Doch gerade bei solchen transformierten Daten sind praktisch kaum noch signifikante Zusammenhänge nachweisbar. Daß die Wahrheit manchmal in der Mitte liegt, versucht diese Arbeit mit Hilfe der Kointegration aufzuzeigen. Immobilienanlagen sind aufgrund ihrer geringen Korrelation mit Aktien und Renten v.a. im Rahmen langfristiger Anlagestrategien interessant, da durch sie hohe Diversifikationseffekte zu erzielen sind. Die risikoreduzierende Wirkung wird mit Hilfe der Korrelationskoeffizienten begründet. Dieses Vorgehen ist jedoch zweifelhaft, da die Korrelationskoeffizienten typischerweise anhand der periodischen - und damit kurzfristigen - Abweichungen bestimmt werden. Ein zwischen diesen Vermögensklassen aufgrund des gleichen ökonomischen Hintergrunds plausibler langfristiger Zusammenhang wird daher ggf. nicht erfaßt, die tatsächlichen Diversifikationseffekte werden somit möglicherweise über-, Risiken damit unterschätzt. Im Gegensatz zum Korrelationskoeffizienten ermöglicht ein neueres statistisches Verfahren, das Fehler-Korrektur-Modell, die Berücksichtigung von kurz- und langfristigen Zusammenhängen. Anhand eines Vergleichs der nach den unterschiedlichen Berechnungsmethoden festgestellten Zusammenhänge wird daher überprüft, ob der Korrelationskoeffizient als Entscheidungsgrundlage für langfristige Anlagestrategien tatsächlich geeignet ist. Es zeigt sich, daß er die Zusammenhänge in vielen Fällen offensichtlich gut beschreibt. Allerdings ergeben sich Hinweise auf unberücksichtigte langfristige Zusammenhänge. Sie signalisieren, daß die Diversifikationseffekte überschätzt werden. Das sollte Anreiz für weitere Untersuchungen sein. Denn sind langfristige Zusammenhänge feststellbar, investieren langfristig orientierte Marktteilnehmer, die auf Basis "kurzfristiger" Indikatoren entscheiden, möglicherweise in suboptimale Portfolios. Das bedeutet zum Beispiel, daß sie bei gleichem Risiko einen höheren Ertrag erwarten könnten.
ANNIS
(2004)
In this paper, we discuss the design and implementation of our first version of the database "ANNIS" ("ANNotation of Information Structure"). For research based on empirical data, ANNIS provides a uniform environment for storing this data together with its linguistic annotations. A central database promotes standardized annotation, which facilitates interpretation and comparison of the data. ANNIS is used through a standard web browser and offers tier-based visualization of data and annotations, as well as search facilities that allow for cross-level and cross-sentential queries. The paper motivates the design of the system, characterizes its user interface, and provides an initial technical evaluation of ANNIS with respect to data size and query processing.
Focus strategies in chadic
(2004)
We argue that the standard focus theories reach their limits when confronted with the focus systems of the Chadic languages. The backbone of the standard focus theories consists of two assumptions, both called into question by the languages under consideration. Firstly, it is standardly assumed that focus is generally marked by stress. The Chadic languages, however, exhibit a variety of different devices for focus marking. Secondly, it is assumed that focus is always marked. In Tangale, at least, focus is not marked consistently on all types of constituents. The paper offers two possible solutions to this dilemma.
In this paper we review the current state of research on the issue of discourse structure (DS)/information structure (IS) interface. This field has received a lot of attention from discourse semanticists and pragmatists, and has made substantial progress in recent years. In this paper we summarize the relevant studies. In addition, we look at the issue of DS/ISinteraction at a different level - that of phonetics. It is known that both information structure and discourse structure can be realized prosodically, but the issue of phonetic interaction between the prosodic devices they employ has hardly ever been discussed in this context. We think that a proper consideration of this aspect of DS/IS-interaction would enrich our understanding of the phenomenon, and hence we formulate some related research-programmatic positions.
Prosody by phase
(2004)
Japanese wh-questions always exhibit focus intonation (FI). Furthermore, the domain of FI exhibits a correspondence to the wh-scope. I propose that this phonology-semantics correspondence is a result of the cyclic computation of FI, which is explained under the notion of Multiple Spell-Out in the recent Minimalist framework. The proposed analysis makes two predictions: (1) embedding of an FI into another is possible; (2) (overt) movement of a wh-phrase to a phase edge position causes a mismatch between FI and wh-scope. Both predictions are tested experimentally, and shown to be borne out.
We argue that there is a crucial difference between determiner and adverbial quantification. Following Herburger [2000] and von Fintel [1994], we assume that determiner quantifiers quantify over individuals and adverbial quantifiers over eventualities. While it is usually assumed that the semantics of sentences with determiner quantifiers and those with adverbial quantifiers basically come out the same, we will show by way of new data that quantification over events is more restricted than quantification over individuals. This is because eventualities in contrast to individuals have to be located in time which is done using contextual information according to a pragmatic resolution strategy. If the contextual information and the tense information given in the respective sentence contradict each other, the sentence is uninterpretable. We conclude that this is the reason why in these cases adverbial quantification, i.e. quantification over eventualities, is impossible whereas quantification over individuals is fine.
This paper investigates the nature of the attraction of XPs to clauseinitial position in German (and other languages). It argues that there are two different types of preposing. First, an XP can move when it is attracted by an EPP-like feature of Comp. Comp can, however, also attract elements that bear the formal marker of some semantic or pragmatic (information theoretic) function. This second type of movement is driven by the attraction of a formal property of the moved element. It has often been misanalysed as “operator” movement in the past. Japanese wh-questions always exhibit focus intonation (FI). Furthermore, the domain of FI exhibits a correspondence to the wh-scope. I propose that this phonology-semantics correspondence is a result of the cyclic computation of FI, which is explained under the notion of Multiple Spell-Out in the recent Minimalist framework. The proposed analysis makes two predictions: (1) embedding of an FI into another is possible; (2) (overt) movement of a wh-phrase to a phase edge position causes a mismatch between FI and wh-scope. Both predictions are tested experimentally, and shown to be borne out.
Results of a production experiment on the placement of sentence accent in German are reported. The hypothesis that German fulfills some of the most widely accepted rules of accent assignment— predicting focus domain integration—was only partly confirmed. Adjacency between argument and verb induces a single accent on the argument, as recognized in the literature, but interruption of this sequence by a modifier often induces remodeling of the accent pattern with a single accent on the modifier. The verb is rarely stressed. All models based on linear alignment or adjacency between elements belonging to a single accent domain fail to account for this result. A cyclic analysis of prosodic domain formation is proposed in an optimality-theoretic framework that can explain the accent pattern. Japanese wh-questions always exhibit focus intonation (FI). Furthermore, the domain of FI exhibits a correspondence to the wh-scope. I propose that this phonology-semantics correspondence is a result of the cyclic computation of FI, which is explained under the notion of Multiple Spell-Out in the recent Minimalist framework. The proposed analysis makes two predictions: (1) embedding of an FI into another is possible; (2) (overt) movement of a wh-phrase to a phase edge position causes a mismatch between FI and wh-scope. Both predictions are tested experimentally, and shown to be borne out.