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We establish a quantisation of corner-degenerate symbols, here called Mellin-edge quantisation, on a manifold with second order singularities. The typical ingredients come from the "most singular" stratum of which is a second order edge where the infinite transversal cone has a base that is itself a manifold with smooth edge. The resulting operator-valued amplitude functions on the second order edge are formulated purely in terms of Mellin symbols taking values in the edge algebra over . In this respect our result is formally analogous to a quantisation rule of (Osaka J. Math. 37:221-260, 2000) for the simpler case of edge-degenerate symbols that corresponds to the singularity order 1. However, from the singularity order 2 on there appear new substantial difficulties for the first time, partly caused by the edge singularities of the cone over that tend to infinity.
In a recent paper, the Lefschetz number for endomorphisms (modulo trace class operators) of sequences of trace class curvature was introduced. We show that this is a well defined, canonical extension of the classical Lefschetz number and establish the homotopy invariance of this number. Moreover, we apply the results to show that the Lefschetz fixed point formula holds for geometric quasiendomorphisms of elliptic quasicomplexes.
Two recent works have adapted the Kalman-Bucy filter into an ensemble setting. In the first formulation, the ensemble of perturbations is updated by the solution of an ordinary differential equation (ODE) in pseudo-time, while the mean is updated as in the standard Kalman filter. In the second formulation, the full ensemble is updated in the analysis step as the solution of single set of ODEs in pseudo-time. Neither requires matrix inversions except for the frequently diagonal observation error covariance.
We analyse the behaviour of the ODEs involved in these formulations. We demonstrate that they stiffen for large magnitudes of the ratio of background error to observational error variance, and that using the integration scheme proposed in both formulations can lead to failure. A numerical integration scheme that is both stable and is not computationally expensive is proposed. We develop transform-based alternatives for these Bucy-type approaches so that the integrations are computed in ensemble space where the variables are weights (of dimension equal to the ensemble size) rather than model variables.
Finally, the performance of our ensemble transform Kalman-Bucy implementations is evaluated using three models: the 3-variable Lorenz 1963 model, the 40-variable Lorenz 1996 model, and a medium complexity atmospheric general circulation model known as SPEEDY. The results from all three models are encouraging and warrant further exploration of these assimilation techniques.
The inverse problem of determining the flow at the Earth's core-mantle boundary according to an outer core magnetic field and secular variation model has been investigated through a Bayesian formalism. To circumvent the issue arising from the truncated nature of the available fields, we combined two modeling methods. In the first step, we applied a filter on the magnetic field to isolate its large scales by reducing the energy contained in its small scales, we then derived the dynamical equation, referred as filtered frozen flux equation, describing the spatiotemporal evolution of the filtered part of the field. In the second step, we proposed a statistical parametrization of the filtered magnetic field in order to account for both its remaining unresolved scales and its large-scale uncertainties. These two modeling techniques were then included in the Bayesian formulation of the inverse problem. To explore the complex posterior distribution of the velocity field resulting from this development, we numerically implemented an algorithm based on Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. After evaluating our approach on synthetic data and comparing it to previously introduced methods, we applied it to a magnetic field model derived from satellite data for the single epoch 2005.0. We could confirm the existence of specific features already observed in previous studies. In particular, we retrieved the planetary scale eccentric gyre characteristic of flow evaluated under the compressible quasi-geostrophy assumption although this hypothesis was not considered in our study. In addition, through the sampling of the velocity field posterior distribution, we could evaluate the reliability, at any spatial location and at any scale, of the flow we calculated. The flow uncertainties we determined are nevertheless conditioned by the choice of the prior constraints we applied to the velocity field.
We discuss the solution theory of operators of the form del(x) + A, acting on smooth sections of a vector bundle with connection del over a manifold M, where X is a vector field having a critical point with positive linearization at some point p is an element of M. As an operator on a suitable space of smooth sections Gamma(infinity)(U, nu), it fulfills a Fredholm alternative, and the same is true for the adjoint operator. Furthermore, we show that the solutions depend smoothly on the data del, X and A.
We describe an iterative method to combine seismicity forecasts. With this method, we produce the next generation of a starting forecast by incorporating predictive skill from one or more input forecasts. For a single iteration, we use the differential probability gain of an input forecast relative to the starting forecast. At each point in space and time, the rate in the next-generation forecast is the product of the starting rate and the local differential probability gain. The main advantage of this method is that it can produce high forecast rates using all types of numerical forecast models, even those that are not rate-based. Naturally, a limitation of this method is that the input forecast must have some information not already contained in the starting forecast. We illustrate this method using the Every Earthquake a Precursor According to Scale (EEPAS) and Early Aftershocks Statistics (EAST) models, which are currently being evaluated at the US testing center of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability. During a testing period from July 2009 to December 2011 (with 19 target earthquakes), the combined model we produce has better predictive performance - in terms of Molchan diagrams and likelihood - than the starting model (EEPAS) and the input model (EAST). Many of the target earthquakes occur in regions where the combined model has high forecast rates. Most importantly, the rates in these regions are substantially higher than if we had simply averaged the models.
The subject of this paper is solutions of an autoresonance equation. We look for a connection between the parameters of the solution bounded as t -> -infinity, and the parameters of two two-parameter families of solutions as t -> infinity. One family consists of the solutions which are not captured into resonance, and another of those increasing solutions which are captured into resonance. In this way we describe the transition through the separatrix for equations with slowly varying parameters and get an estimate for parameters before the resonance of those solutions which may be captured into autoresonance. (C) 2014 AIP Publishing LLC.
We investigate spatio-temporal properties of earthquake patterns in the San Jacinto fault zone (SJFZ), California, between Cajon Pass and the Superstition Hill Fault, using a long record of simulated seismicity constrained by available seismological and geological data. The model provides an effective realization of a large segmented strike-slip fault zone in a 3D elastic half-space, with heterogeneous distribution of static friction chosen to represent several clear step-overs at the surface. The simulated synthetic catalog reproduces well the basic statistical features of the instrumental seismicity recorded at the SJFZ area since 1981. The model also produces events larger than those included in the short instrumental record, consistent with paleo-earthquakes documented at sites along the SJFZ for the last 1,400 years. The general agreement between the synthetic and observed data allows us to address with the long-simulated seismicity questions related to large earthquakes and expected seismic hazard. The interaction between m a parts per thousand yen 7 events on different sections of the SJFZ is found to be close to random. The hazard associated with m a parts per thousand yen 7 events on the SJFZ increases significantly if the long record of simulated seismicity is taken into account. The model simulations indicate that the recent increased number of observed intermediate SJFZ earthquakes is a robust statistical feature heralding the occurrence of m a parts per thousand yen 7 earthquakes. The hypocenters of the m a parts per thousand yen 5 events in the simulation results move progressively towards the hypocenter of the upcoming m a parts per thousand yen 7 earthquake.