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Most of the baryonic matter in the Universe resides in a diffuse gaseous phase in-between galaxies consisting mostly of hydrogen and helium. This intergalactic medium (IGM) is distributed in large-scale filaments as part of the overall cosmic web. The luminous extragalactic objects that we can observe today, such as galaxies and quasars, are surrounded by the IGM in the most dense regions within the cosmic web. The radiation of these objects contributes to the so-called ultraviolet background (UVB) which keeps the IGM highly ionized ever since the epoch of reionization.
Measuring the amount of absorption due to intergalactic neutral hydrogen (HI) against extragalactic background sources is a very useful tool to constrain the energy input of ionizing sources into the IGM. Observations suggest that the HI Lyman-alpha effective optical depth, τ_eff, decreases with decreasing redshift, which is primarily due to the expansion of the Universe. However, some studies find a smaller value of the effective optical depth than expected at the specific redshift z~3.2, possibly related to the complete reionization of helium in the IGM and a hardening of the UVB. The detection and possible cause of a decrease in τ_eff at z~3.2 is controversially debated in the literature and the observed features need further explanation.
To better understand the properties of the mean absorption at high redshift and to provide an answer for whether the detection of a τ_eff feature is real we study 13 high-resolution, high signal-to-noise ratio quasar spectra observed with the Ultraviolet and Visual Echelle Spectrograph (UVES) at the Very Large Telescope (VLT). The redshift evolution of the effective optical depth, τ_eff(z), is measured in the redshift range 2.7≤z≤3.6. The influence of metal absorption features is removed by performing a comprehensive absorption-line-fitting procedure.
In the first part of the thesis, a line-parameter analysis of the column density, N, and Doppler parameter, b, of ≈7500 individually fitted absorption lines is performed. The results are in good agreement with findings from previous surveys.
The second (main) part of this thesis deals with the analysis of the redshift evolution of the effective optical depth. The τ_eff measurements vary around the empirical power law τ_eff(z)~(1+z)^(γ+1) with γ=2.09±0.52. The same analysis as for the observed spectra is performed on synthetic absorption spectra. From a comparison between observed and synthetic spectral data it can be inferred that the uncertainties of the τ_eff values are likely underestimated and that the scatter is probably caused by high-column-density absorbers with column densities in the range 15≤logN≤17. In the real Universe, such absorbers are rarely observed, however. Hence, the difference in τ_eff from different observational data sets and absorption studies is most likely caused by cosmic variance. If, alternatively, the disagreement between such data is a result of an too optimistic estimate of the (systematic) errors, it is also possible that all τ_eff measurements agree with a smooth evolution within the investigated redshift range. To explore in detail the different analysis techniques of previous studies an extensive literature comparison to the results of this work is presented in this thesis.
Although a final explanation for the occurrence of the τ_eff deviation in different studies at z~3.2 cannot be given here, our study, which represents the most detailed line-fitting analysis of its kind performed at the investigated redshifts so far, represents another important benchmark for the characterization of the HI Ly-alpha effective optical depth at high redshift and its indicated unusual behavior at z~3.2.
The lives of more than 1/6 th of the world population is directly affected by the caprices of the South Asian summer monsoon rainfall. India receives around 78 % of the annual precipitation during the June-September months, the summer monsoon season of South Asia. But, the monsoon circulation is not consistent throughout the entire summer season. Episodes of heavy rainfall (active periods) and low rainfall (break periods) are inherent to the intraseasonal variability of the South Asian summer monsoon. Extended breaks or long-lasting dryness can result in droughts and hence trigger crop failures and in turn famines. Furthermore, India's electricity generation from renewable sources (wind and hydro-power), which is increasingly important in order to satisfy the rapidly rising demand for energy, is highly reliant on the prevailing meteorology. The major drought years 2002 and 2009 for the Indian summer monsoon during the last decades, which are results of the occurrence of multiple extended breaks, emphasise exemplary that the understanding of the monsoon system and its intraseasonal variation is of greatest importance. Although, numerous studies based on observations, reanalysis data and global model simulations have been carried out with the focus on monsoon active and break phases over India, the understanding of the monsoon intraseasonal variability is only in the infancy stage. Regional climate models could benefit the comprehension of monsoon breaks by its resolution advantage.
This study investigates moist dynamical processes that initiate and maintain breaks during the South Asian summer monsoon using the atmospheric regional climate model HIRHAM5 at a horizontal resolution of 25 km forced by the ECMWF ERA Interim reanalysis for the period 1979-2012. By calculating moisture and moist static energy budgets the various competing mechanisms leading to extended breaks are quantitatively estimated. Advection of dry air from the deserts of western Asia towards central India is the dominant moist dynamical process in initiating extended break conditions over South Asia. Once initiated, the extended breaks are maintained due to many competing mechanisms: (i) the anomalous easterlies at the southern flank of this anticyclonic anomaly weaken the low-level cross-equatorial jet and thus the moisture transport into the monsoon region, (ii) differential radiative heating over the continental and the oceanic tropical convergence zone induces a local Hadley circulation with anomalous rising over the equatorial Indian Ocean and descent over central India, and (iii) a cyclonic response to positive rainfall anomalies over the near-equatorial Indian Ocean amplifies the anomalous easterlies over India and hence contributes to the low-level divergence over central India.
A sensitivity experiment that mimics a scenario of higher atmospheric aerosol concentrations over South Asia addresses a current issue of large uncertainty: the role aerosols play in suppressing monsoon rainfall and hence in triggering breaks. To study the indirect aerosol effects the cloud droplet number concentration was increased to imitate the aerosol's function as cloud condensation nuclei. The sensitivity experiment with altered microphysical cloud properties shows a reduction in the summer monsoon precipitation together with a weakening of the South Asian summer monsoon. Several physical mechanisms are proposed to be responsible for the suppressed monsoon rainfall: (i) according to the first indirect radiative forcing the increase in the number of cloud droplets causes an increase in the cloud reflectivity of solar radiation, leading to a climate cooling over India which in turn reduces the hydrological cycle, (ii) a stabilisation of the troposphere induced by a differential cooling between the surface and the upper troposphere over central India inhibits the growth of deep convective rain clouds, (iii) an increase of the amount of low and mid-level clouds together with a decrease in high-level cloud amount amplify the surface cooling and hence the atmospheric stability, and (iv) dynamical changes of the monsoon manifested as a anomalous anticyclonic circulation over India reduce the moisture transport into the monsoon region. The study suggests that the changes in the total precipitation, which are dominated by changes in the convective precipitation, mainly result from the indirect radiative forcing. Suppression of rainfall due to the direct microphysical effect is found to be negligible over India. Break statistics of the polluted cloud scenario indicate an increase in the occurrence of short breaks (3 days), while the frequency of extended breaks (> 7 days) is clearly not affected. This disproves the hypothesis that more and smaller cloud droplets, caused by a high load of atmospheric aerosols trigger long drought conditions over central India.
Semi-empirical sea-level models (SEMs) exploit physically motivated empirical relationships between global sea level and certain drivers, in the following global mean temperature. This model class evolved as a supplement to process-based models (Rahmstorf (2007)) which were unable to fully represent all relevant processes. They thus failed to capture past sea-level change (Rahmstorf et al. (2012)) and were thought likely to underestimate future sea-level rise. Semi-empirical models were found to be a fast and useful tool for exploring the uncertainties in future sea-level rise, consistently giving significantly higher projections than process-based models.
In the following different aspects of semi-empirical sea-level modelling have been studied. Models were first validated using various data sets of global sea level and temperature. SEMs were then used on the glacier contribution to sea level, and to infer past global temperature from sea-level data via inverse modelling. Periods studied encompass the instrumental period, covered by tide gauges (starting 1700 CE (Common Era) in Amsterdam) and satellites (first launched in 1992 CE), the era from 1000 BCE (before CE) to present, and the full length of the Holocene (using proxy data). Accordingly different data, model formulations and implementations have been used. It could be shown in Bittermann et al. (2013) that SEMs correctly predict 20th century sea-level when calibrated with data until 1900 CE. SEMs also turned out to give better predictions than the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 4th assessment report (AR4, IPCC (2007)) models, for the period from 1961–2003 CE.
With the first multi-proxy reconstruction of global sea-level as input, estimate of the human-induced component of modern sea-level change and projections of future sea-level rise were calculated (Kopp et al. (2016)). It turned out with 90% confidence that more than 40 % of the observed 20th century sea-level rise is indeed anthropogenic. With the new semi-empirical and IPCC (2013) 5th assessment report (AR5) projections the gap between SEM and process-based model projections closes, giving higher credibility to both. Combining all scenarios, from strong mitigation to business as usual, a global sea-level rise of 28–131 cm relative to 2000 CE, is projected with 90% confidence. The decision for a low carbon pathway could halve the expected global sea-level rise by 2100 CE.
Present day temperature and thus sea level are driven by the globally acting greenhouse-gas forcing. Unlike that, the Milankovich forcing, acting on Holocene timescales, results mainly in a northern-hemisphere temperature change. Therefore a semi-empirical model can be driven with northernhemisphere temperatures, which makes it possible to model the main subcomponent of sea-level change over this period. It showed that an additional positive constant rate of the order of the estimated Antarctic sea-level contribution is then required to explain the sea-level evolution over the Holocene. Thus the global sea level, following the climatic optimum, can be interpreted as the sum of a temperature induced sea-level drop and a positive long-term contribution, likely an ongoing response to deglaciation coming from Antarctica.