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Afghanistan – Ein Menetekel
(2011)
Background:
Recent evidence from animal experiments and studies in humans suggests that early age at first drink (AFD) may lead to higher stress-induced drinking. The present study aimed to extend these findings by examining whether AFD interacted with stressful life events (SLE) and/or with daily hassles regarding the impact on drinking patterns among young adults.
Method:
In 306 participants of an epidemiological cohort study, AFD was assessed together with SLE during the past 3 years, daily hassles in the last month, and drinking behavior at age 22. As outcome variables, 2 variables were derived, reflecting different aspects of alcohol use: the amount of alcohol consumed in the last month and the drinking frequency, indicated by the number of drinking days in the last month.
Results:
Linear regression models revealed an interaction effect between the continuous measures of AFD and SLE on the amount of alcohol consumed. The earlier young adults had their first alcoholic drink and the higher the levels of SLE they were exposed to, the disproportionately more alcohol they consumed. Drinking frequency was not affected by an interaction of these variables, while daily hassles and their interaction with AFD were unrelated to drinking behavior.
Conclusions:
These findings highlight the importance of early age at drinking onset as a risk factor for later heavy drinking under high load of SLE. Prevention programs should aim to raise age at first contact with alcohol. Additionally, support in stressful life situations and the acquisition of effective coping strategies might prevent heavy drinking in those with earlier drinking onset.
Aggregate and individual replication probability within an explicit model of the research process
(2011)
We study a model of the research process in which the true effect size, the replication jitter due to changes in experimental procedure, and the statistical error of effect size measurement are all normally distributed random variables. Within this model, we analyze the probability of successfully replicating an initial experimental result by obtaining either a statistically significant result in the same direction or any effect in that direction. We analyze both the probability of successfully replicating a particular experimental effect (i.e., the individual replication probability) and the average probability of successful replication across different studies within some research context (i.e., the aggregate replication probability), and we identify the conditions under which the latter can be approximated using the formulas of Killeen (2005a, 2007). We show how both of these probabilities depend on parameters of the research context that would rarely be known in practice. In addition, we show that the statistical uncertainty associated with the size of an initial observed effect would often prevent accurate estimation of the desired individual replication probability even if these research context parameters were known exactly. We conclude that accurate estimates of replication probability are generally unattainable.
Akademischer Sittenverfall?
(2011)