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Institute
ArcticBeach v1.0
(2022)
In the Arctic, air temperatures are increasing and sea ice is declining, resulting in larger waves and a longer open water season, all of which intensify the thaw and erosion of ice-rich coasts. Climate change has been shown to increase the rate of Arctic coastal erosion, causing problems for Arctic cultural heritage, existing industrial, military, and civil infrastructure, as well as changes in nearshore biogeochemistry. Numerical models that reproduce historical and project future Arctic erosion rates are necessary to understand how further climate change will affect these problems, and no such model yet exists to simulate the physics of erosion on a pan-Arctic scale. We have coupled a bathystrophic storm surge model to a simplified physical erosion model of a permafrost coastline. This Arctic erosion model, called ArcticBeach v1.0, is a first step toward a physical parameterization of Arctic shoreline erosion for larger-scale models. It is forced by wind speed and direction, wave period and height, sea surface temperature, all of which are masked during times of sea ice cover near the coastline. Model tuning requires observed historical retreat rates (at least one value), as well as rough nearshore bathymetry. These parameters are already available on a pan-Arctic scale. The model is validated at three study sites at 1) Drew Point (DP), Alaska, 2) Mamontovy Khayata (MK), Siberia, and 3) Veslebogen Cliffs, Svalbard. Simulated cumulative retreat rates for DP and MK respectively (169 and 170 m) over the time periods studied at each site (2007-2016, and 1995-2018) are found to the same order of magnitude as observed cumulative retreat (172 and 120 m). The rocky Veslebogen cliffs have small observed cumulative retreat rates (0.05 m over 2014-2016), and our model was also able to reproduce this same order of magnitude of retreat (0.08 m). Given the large differences in geomorphology between the study sites, this study provides a proof-of-concept that ArcticBeach v1.0 can be applied on very different permafrost coastlines. ArcticBeach v1.0 provides a promising starting point to project retreat of Arctic shorelines, or to evaluate historical retreat in places that have had few observations.
Arctic coastal infrastructure and cultural and archeological sites are increasingly vulnerable to erosion and flooding due to amplified warming of the Arctic, sea level rise, lengthening of open water periods, and a predicted increase in frequency of major storms. Mitigating these hazards necessitates decision-making tools at an appropriate scale. The objectives of this paper are to provide such a tool by assessing potential erosion and flood hazards at Herschel Island, a UNESCO World Heritage candidate site. This study focused on Simpson Point and the adjacent coastal sections because of their archeological, historical, and cultural significance. Shoreline movement was analyzed using the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) after digitizing shorelines from 1952, 1970, 2000, and 2011. For purposes of this analysis, the coast was divided in seven coastal reaches (CRs) reflecting different morphologies and/or exposures. Using linear regression rates obtained from these data, projections of shoreline position were made for 20 and 50 years into the future. Flood hazard was assessed using a least cost path analysis based on a high-resolution light detection and ranging (LiDAR) dataset and current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change sea level estimates. Widespread erosion characterizes the study area. The rate of shoreline movement in different periods of the study ranges from -5.5 to 2.7 mI double dagger a(-1) (mean -0.6 mI double dagger a(-1)). Mean coastal retreat decreased from -0.6 mI double dagger a(-1) to -0.5 mI double dagger a(-1), for 1952-1970 and 1970-2000, respectively, and increased to -1.3 mI double dagger a(-1) in the period 2000-2011. Ice-rich coastal sections most exposed to wave attack exhibited the highest rates of coastal retreat. The geohazard map combines shoreline projections and flood hazard analyses to show that most of the spit area has extreme or very high flood hazard potential, and some buildings are vulnerable to coastal erosion. This study demonstrates that transgressive forcing may provide ample sediment for the expansion of depositional landforms, while growing more susceptible to overwash and flooding.
Sea level rise and coastal erosion have inundated large areas of Arctic permafrost. Submergence by warm and saline waters increases the rate of inundated permafrost thaw compared to sub-aerial thawing on land. Studying the contact between the unfrozen and frozen sediments below the seabed, also known as the ice-bearing permafrost table (IBPT), provides valuable information to understand the evolution of sub-aquatic permafrost, which is key to improving and understanding coastal erosion prediction models and potential greenhouse gas emissions. In this study, we use data from 2D electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) collected in the nearshore coastal zone of two Arctic regions that differ in their environmental conditions (e.g., seawater depth and resistivity) to image and study the subsea permafrost. The inversion of 2D ERT data sets is commonly performed using deterministic approaches that favor smoothed solutions, which are typically interpreted using a user-specified resistivity threshold to identify the IBPT position. In contrast, to target the IBPT position directly during inversion, we use a layer-based model parameterization and a global optimization approach to invert our ERT data. This approach results in ensembles of layered 2D model solutions, which we use to identify the IBPT and estimate the resistivity of the unfrozen and frozen sediments, including estimates of uncertainties. Additionally, we globally invert 1D synthetic resistivity data and perform sensitivity analyses to study, in a simpler way, the correlations and influences of our model parameters. The set of methods provided in this study may help to further exploit ERT data collected in such permafrost environments as well as for the design of future field experiments.
Submarine permafrost degradation rates may be determined by a number of interacting processes, including rates of sea level rise and coastal erosion, sea bottom temperature and salinity regimes, geothermal heat flux and heat and mass diffusion within the sediment column. Observations of ice-bearing permafrost in shelf sediments are necessary in order to determine its spatial distribution and to quantify its degradation rate. We tested the use of direct current electrical resistivity to ice-bearing permafrost in Elson Lagoon northeast of Barrow, Alaska (Beaufort Sea). A sharp increase in electrical resistivity was observed in profiles collected perpendicular to and along the coastline and is interpreted to be the boundary between ice-free sediment and underlying ice-bearing submarine permafrost. The depth to the interpreted ice-bearing permafrost increases from <2 m below sea level to over 12 m below sea level with increasing distance from the coastline. The dependence of the saline sediment electrical resistivity on temperature and freezing was measured in the laboratory to provide validation for the field measurements. Electrical resistivity was shown to be effective for detection of shallow ice-bearing permafrost in the coastal zone. Historical coastal retreat rates were combined with the inclination of the top of the ice-bearing permafrost to calculate mean vertical permafrost degradation rates of 1 to 4 cm yr(-1).
Thawing of subsea permafrost can impact offshore infrastructure, affect coastal erosion, and release permafrost organic matter. Thawing is usually modeled as the result of heat transfer, although salt diffusion may play an important role in marine settings. To better quantify nearshore subsea permafrost thawing, we applied the CryoGRID2 heat diffusion model and coupled it to a salt diffusion model. We simulated coastline retreat and subsea permafrost evolution as it develops through successive stages of a thawing sequence at the Bykovsky Peninsula, Siberia. Sensitivity analyses for seawater salinity were performed to compare the results for the Bykovsky Peninsula with those of typical Arctic seawater. For the Bykovsky Peninsula, the modeled ice-bearing permafrost table (IBPT) for ice-rich sand and an erosion rate of 0.25m/year was 16.7 m below the seabed 350m offshore. The model outputs were compared to the IBPT depth estimated from coastline retreat and electrical resistivity surveys perpendicular to and crossing the shoreline of the Bykovsky Peninsula. The interpreted geoelectric data suggest that the IBPT dipped to 15-20m below the seabed at 350m offshore. Both results suggest that cold saline water forms beneath grounded ice and floating sea ice in shallow water, causing cryotic benthic temperatures. The freezing point depression produced by salt diffusion can delay or prevent ice formation in the sediment and enhance the IBPT degradation rate. Therefore, salt diffusion may facilitate the release of greenhouse gasses to the atmosphere and considerably affect the design of offshore and coastal infrastructure in subsea permafrost areas.
Microbial community composition and abundance after millennia of submarine permafrost warming
(2019)
Warming of the Arctic led to an increase in permafrost temperatures by about 0.3 degrees C during the last decade. Permafrost warming is associated with increasing sediment water content, permeability, and diffusivity and could in the long term alter microbial community composition and abundance even before permafrost thaws. We studied the long-term effect (up to 2500 years) of submarine permafrost warming on microbial communities along an onshore-offshore transect on the Siberian Arctic Shelf displaying a natural temperature gradient of more than 10 degrees C. We analysed the in situ development of bacterial abundance and community composition through total cell counts (TCCs), quantitative PCR of bacterial gene abundance, and amplicon sequencing and correlated the microbial community data with temperature, pore water chemistry, and sediment physicochemical parameters. On timescales of centuries, permafrost warming coincided with an overall decreasing microbial abundance, whereas millennia after warming microbial abundance was similar to cold onshore permafrost. In addition, the dissolved organic carbon content of all cores was lowest in submarine permafrost after millennial-scale warming. Based on correlation analysis, TCC, unlike bacterial gene abundance, showed a significant rank-based negative correlation with increasing temperature, while bacterial gene copy numbers showed a strong negative correlation with salinity. Bacterial community composition correlated only weakly with temperature but strongly with the pore water stable isotopes delta O-18 and delta D, as well as with depth. The bacterial community showed substantial spatial variation and an overall dominance of Actinobacteria, Chloroflexi, Firmicutes, Gemmatimonadetes, and Proteobacteria, which are amongst the microbial taxa that were also found to be active in other frozen permafrost environments. We suggest that, millennia after permafrost warming by over 10 degrees C, microbial community composition and abundance show some indications for proliferation but mainly reflect the sedimentation history and paleoenvironment and not a direct effect through warming.
The Arctic is rich in aquatic systems and experiences rapid warming due to climate change. The accelerated warming causes permafrost thaw and the mobilization of organic carbon.
When dissolved organic carbon is mobilized, this DOC can be transported to aquatic systems and degraded in the water bodies and further downstream. Here, we analyze the influence of different landscape components on DOC concentrations and export in a small (6.45 km(2)) stream catchment in the Lena River Delta.
The catchment includes lakes and ponds, with the flow path from Pleistocene yedoma deposits across Holocene non-yedoma deposits to the river outlet. In addition to DOC concentrations, we use radiocarbon dating of DOC as well as stable oxygen and hydrogen isotopes (delta O-18 and delta D) to assess the origin of DOC.
We find significantly higher DOC concentrations in the Pleistocene yedoma area of the catchment compared to the Holocene non-yedoma area with medians of 5 and 4.5 mg L-1 (p < 0.05), respectively. When yedoma thaw streams with high DOC concentration reach a large yedoma thermokarst lake, we observe an abrupt decrease in DOC concentration, which we attribute to dilution and lake processes such as mineralization. The DOC ages in the large thermokarst lake (between 3,428 and 3,637 C-14 y BP) can be attributed to a mixing of mobilized old yedoma and Holocene carbon.
Further downstream after the large thermokarst lake, we find progressively younger DOC ages in the stream water to its mouth, paired with decreasing DOC concentrations. This process could result from dilution with leaching water from Holocene deposits and/or emission of ancient yedoma carbon to the atmosphere. Our study shows that thermokarst lakes and ponds may act as DOC filters, predominantly by diluting incoming waters of higher DOC concentrations or by re-mineralizing DOC to CO2 and CH4.
Nevertheless, our results also confirm that the small catchment still contributes DOC on the order of 1.2 kg km(-2) per day from a permafrost landscape with ice-rich yedoma deposits to the Lena River.
Organic matter deposited in ancient, ice-rich permafrost sediments is vulnerable to climate change and may contribute to the future release of greenhouse gases; it is thus important to get a better characterization of the plant organic matter within such sediments. From a Late Quaternary permafrost sediment core from the Buor Khaya Peninsula, we analysed plant-derived sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) to identify the taxonomic composition of plant organic matter, and undertook palynological analysis to assess the environmental conditions during deposition. Using sedaDNA, we identified 154 taxa and from pollen and non-pollen palynomorphs we identified 83 taxa. In the deposits dated between 54 and 51 kyr BP, sedaDNA records a diverse low-centred polygon plant community including recurring aquatic pond vegetation while from the pollen record we infer terrestrial open-land vegetation with relatively dry environmental conditions at a regional scale. A fluctuating dominance of either terrestrial or swamp and aquatic taxa in both proxies allowed the local hydrological development of the polygon to be traced. In deposits dated between 11.4 and 9.7 kyr BP (13.4-11.1 cal kyr BP), sedaDNA shows a taxonomic turnover to moist shrub tundra and a lower taxonomic richness compared to the older samples. Pollen also records a shrub tundra community, mostly seen as changes in relative proportions of the most dominant taxa, while a decrease in taxonomic richness was less pronounced compared to sedaDNA. Our results show the advantages of using sedaDNA in combination with palynological analyses when macrofossils are rarely preserved. The high resolution of the sedaDNA record provides a detailed picture of the taxonomic composition of plant-derived organic matter throughout the core, and palynological analyses prove valuable by allowing for inferences of regional environmental conditions.
Permafrost inundated since the last glacial maximum is degrading, potentially releasing trapped or stabilized greenhouse gases, but few observations of the depth of ice-bonded permafrost (IBP) below the seafloor exist for most of the arctic continental shelf. We use spectral ratios of the ambient vibration seismic wavefield, together with estimated shear wave velocity from the dispersion curves of surface waves, for estimating the thickness of the sediment overlying the IBP. Peaks in spectral ratios modeled for three-layered 1-D systems correspond with varying thickness of the unfrozen sediment. Seismic receivers were deployed on the seabed around Muostakh Island in the central Laptev Sea, Siberia. We derive depths of the IBP between 3.7 and 20.7m15%, increasing with distance from the shoreline. Correspondence between expected permafrost distribution, modeled response, and observational data suggests that the method is promising for the determination of the thickness of unfrozen sediment.