Refine
Has Fulltext
- no (2)
Year of publication
- 2009 (2) (remove)
Document Type
- Article (2)
Language
- English (2)
Is part of the Bibliography
- yes (2)
Institute
Dry lands are exposed to a highly variable environment and face a high risk of degradation. The effects of climate change are likely to increase this risk; thus a profound knowledge of the system dynamics is crucial for evaluating management options. This applies particularly for the interactions between water and vegetation, which exhibit strong feedbacks. To evaluate these feedbacks and the effects of climate change on soil moisture dynamics, we developed a generic, process-based, spatially explicit soil moisture model of two soil layers, which can be coupled with vegetation models. A time scale relevant for ecological processes can be simulated without difficulty, and the model avoids complex parameterization with data that are unavailable for most regions of the world. We applied the model to four sites in Israel along a precipitation and soil type gradient and assessed the effects of climate change by comparing possible climatic changes with present climate conditions. The results show that in addition to temperature, the total amount of precipitation and its intra-annual variability are an important driver of soil moisture patterns. This indicates that particularly with regard to climate change, the approach of many ecological models that simulate water dynamics on an annual base is far too simple to make reliable predictions. Thus, the introduced model can serve as a valuable tool to improve present ecological models of dry lands because of its focus on the applicability and transferability.
We analyzed relative sensitivities of small- and medium-sized carnivores to livestock husbandry (stocking rates and predator control) in Kalahari, South Africa, rangelands at a regional scale. We monitored small carnivores using track counts on 22 Kalahari farms across a land-use gradient ranging from low to high stocking rates and also interviewed each farm manager to identify farmers" perception of small carnivores as potential predators for livestock. We recorded 12 species of small- and medium-sized carnivores across 22 Kalahari farms. Stocking rate was the most important driving variable for local carnivore abundance. Abundance of all species was lowest on farms where stocking rate was high. Most farm managers perceived medium-sized carnivores, in particular, African wildcat (Felis silvestris lybica), black-backed jackal (Canis mesomelas), and caracal (Caracal caracal), as potential predators of livestock. Multiple regression analysis shows that black-backed jackal, African wildcat, and caracal were negatively affected by predator control measures, whereas bat-eared fox (Otocyon megalotis), cape fox (Vulpes chama), and small-spotted genet (Genetta genetta) were positively affected. Our results show a need for expanding research and conservation activities toward small- and medium-sized carnivores in southern African savannah rangelands. We, therefore, suggest developing a monitoring program combining passive tracking with indigenous knowledge of local Khoisan Bushmen to monitor carnivore populations, and we recommend additional predator removal experiments that manipulate predator densities.