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Abdominal and general adiposity are independently associated with mortality, but there is no consensus on how best to assess abdominal adiposity. We compared the ability of alternative waist indices to complement body mass index (BMI) when assessing all-cause mortality. We used data from 352,985 participants in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) and Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for other risk factors. During a mean follow-up of 16.1 years, 38,178 participants died. Combining in one model BMI and a strongly correlated waist index altered the association patterns with mortality, to a predominantly negative association for BMI and a stronger positive association for the waist index, while combining BMI with the uncorrelated A Body Shape Index (ABSI) preserved the association patterns. Sex-specific cohort-wide quartiles of waist indices correlated with BMI could not separate high-risk from low-risk individuals within underweight (BMI<18.5 kg/m(2)) or obese (BMI30 kg/m(2)) categories, while the highest quartile of ABSI separated 18-39% of the individuals within each BMI category, which had 22-55% higher risk of death. In conclusion, only a waist index independent of BMI by design, such as ABSI, complements BMI and enables efficient risk stratification, which could facilitate personalisation of screening, treatment and monitoring.
The Net Reclassification Improvement (NRI) has become a popular metric for evaluating improvement in disease prediction models through the past years. The concept is relatively straightforward but usage and interpretation has been different across studies. While no thresholds exist for evaluating the degree of improvement, many studies have relied solely on the significance of the NRI estimate. However, recent studies recommend that statistical testing with the NRI should be avoided. We propose using confidence ellipses around the estimated values of event and non-event NRIs which might provide the best measure of variability around the point estimates. Our developments are illustrated using practical examples from EPIC-Potsdam study.
A new evidence-based diet score to capture associations of food consumption and chronic disease risk
(2022)
Previously, the attempt to compile German dietary guidelines into a diet score was predominantly not successful with regards to preventing chronic diseases in the EPIC-Potsdam study. Current guidelines were supplemented by the latest evidence from systematic reviews and expert papers published between 2010 and 2020 on the prevention potential of food groups on chronic diseases such as type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular diseases and cancer. A diet score was developed by scoring the food groups according to a recommended low, moderate or high intake. The relative validity and reliability of the diet score, assessed by a food frequency questionnaire, was investigated. The consideration of current evidence resulted in 10 key food groups being preventive of the chronic diseases of interest. They served as components in the diet score and were scored from 0 to 1 point, depending on their recommended intake, resulting in a maximum of 10 points. Both the reliability (r = 0.53) and relative validity (r = 0.43) were deemed sufficient to consider the diet score as a stable construct in future investigations. This new diet score can be a promising tool to investigate dietary intake in etiological research by concentrating on 10 key dietary determinants with evidence-based prevention potential for chronic diseases.
Background Advanced glycation end-products are proteins that become glycated after contact with sugars and are implicated in endothelial dysfunction and arterial stiffening. We aimed to investigate the relationships between advanced glycation end-products, measured as skin autofluorescence, and vascular stiffness in various glycemic strata. Methods We performed a cross-sectional analysis within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Potsdam cohort, comprising n = 3535 participants (median age 67 years, 60% women). Advanced glycation end-products were measured as skin autofluorescence with AGE-Reader (TM), vascular stiffness was measured as pulse wave velocity, augmentation index and ankle-brachial index with Vascular Explorer (TM). A subset of 1348 participants underwent an oral glucose tolerance test. Participants were sub-phenotyped into normoglycemic, prediabetes and diabetes groups. Associations between skin autofluorescence and various indices of vascular stiffness were assessed by multivariable regression analyses and were adjusted for age, sex, measures of adiposity and lifestyle, blood pressure, prevalent conditions, medication use and blood biomarkers. Results Skin autofluorescence associated with pulse wave velocity, augmentation index and ankle-brachial index, adjusted beta coefficients (95% CI) per unit skin autofluorescence increase: 0.38 (0.21; 0.55) for carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity, 0.25 (0.14; 0.37) for aortic pulse wave velocity, 1.00 (0.29; 1.70) for aortic augmentation index, 4.12 (2.24; 6.00) for brachial augmentation index and - 0.04 (- 0.05; - 0.02) for ankle-brachial index. The associations were strongest in men, younger individuals and were consistent across all glycemic strata: for carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity 0.36 (0.12; 0.60) in normoglycemic, 0.33 (- 0.01; 0.67) in prediabetes and 0.45 (0.09; 0.80) in diabetes groups; with similar estimates for aortic pulse wave velocity. Augmentation index was associated with skin autofluorescence only in normoglycemic and diabetes groups. Ankle-brachial index inversely associated with skin autofluorescence across all sex, age and glycemic strata. Conclusions Our findings indicate that advanced glycation end-products measured as skin autofluorescence might be involved in vascular stiffening independent of age and other cardiometabolic risk factors not only in individuals with diabetes but also in normoglycemic and prediabetic conditions. Skin autofluorescence might prove as a rapid and non-invasive method for assessment of macrovascular disease progression across all glycemic strata.
To better understand the role of individual and lifestyle factors in human disease, an exposome-wide association study was performed to investigate within a single-study anthropometry measures and lifestyle factors previously associated with B-cell lymphoma (BCL). Within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and nutrition study, 2402 incident BCL cases were diagnosed from 475 426 participants that were followed-up on average 14 years. Standard and penalized Cox regression models as well as principal component analysis (PCA) were used to evaluate 84 exposures in relation to BCL risk. Standard and penalized Cox regression models showed a positive association between anthropometric measures and BCL and multiple myeloma/plasma cell neoplasm (MM). The penalized Cox models additionally showed the association between several exposures from categories of physical activity, smoking status, medical history, socioeconomic position, diet and BCL and/or the subtypes. PCAs confirmed the individual associations but also showed additional observations. The PC5 including anthropometry, was positively associated with BCL, diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) and MM. There was a significant positive association between consumption of sugar and confectionary (PC11) and follicular lymphoma risk, and an inverse association between fish and shellfish and Vitamin D (PC15) and DLBCL risk. The PC1 including features of the Mediterranean diet and diet with lower inflammatory score showed an inverse association with BCL risk, while the PC7, including dairy, was positively associated with BCL and DLBCL risk. Physical activity (PC10) was positively associated with DLBCL risk among women. This study provided informative insights on the etiology of BCL.
IMPORTANCE Inflammatory processes have been suggested to have an important role in colorectal cancer (CRC) etiology. Chemerin is a recently discovered inflammatory biomarker thought to exert chemotactic, adipogenic, and angiogenic functions. However, its potential link with CRC has not been sufficiently explored. OBJECTIVE To evaluate the prospective association of circulating plasma chemerin concentrations with incident CRC. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Prospective case-cohort study based on 27 548 initially healthy participants from the European Prospective Investigation Into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Potsdam cohort who were followed for up to 16 years. Baseline study information and samples were collected between August 23, 1994, and September 25, 1998. Recruitment was according to random registry sampling from the geographical area of Potsdam, Germany, and surrounding municipalities. The last date of study follow-up was May 10, 2010. Statistical analysis was conducted in 2018. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Incident CRC, colon cancer, and rectal cancer. Baseline chemerin plasma concentrations were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE This study found that the association between chemerin concentration and the risk of incident CRC was linear and independent of established CRC risk factors. Further studies are warranted to evaluate chemerin as a novel immune-inflammatory agent in colorectal carcinogenesis.
Aims/hypothesis This study aimed to evaluate associations of height as well as components of height (sitting height and leg length) with risk of type 2 diabetes and to explore to what extent associations are explainable by liver fat and cardiometabolic risk markers. Methods A case-cohort study within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Potsdam study comprising 26,437 participants who provided blood samples was designed. We randomly selected a subcohort of 2500 individuals (2029 diabetes-free at baseline and with anamnestic, anthropometrical and metabolic data for analysis). Of the 820 incident diabetes cases identified in the full cohort during 7 years of follow-up, 698 remained for analyses after similar exclusions. Results After adjustment for age, potential lifestyle confounders, education and waist circumference, greater height was related to lower diabetes risk (HR per 10 cm, men 0.59 [95% CI 0.47, 0.75] and women 0.67 [0.51, 0.88], respectively). Leg length was related to lower risk among men and women, but only among men if adjusted for total height. Adjustment for liver fat and triacylglycerols, adiponectin and C-reactive protein substantially attenuated associations between height and diabetes risk, particularly among women. Conclusions/interpretation We observed inverse associations between height and risk of type 2 diabetes, which was largely related to leg length among men. The inverse associations may be partly driven by lower liver fat content and a more favourable cardiometabolic profile.
Fetuin-A, a hepatic-origin protein, is strongly positively associated with risk of type 2 diabetes in human observational studies, but it is unknown whether this association is causal. Weaimed to study the potential causal relation of circulating fetuin-A to risk of type 2 diabetes in a Mendelian randomization study with single nucleotide polymorphisms located in the fetuin-A-encoding AHSG gene. We used data from eight European countries of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-InterAct case-cohort study including 10,020 incident cases. Plasma fetuin-A concentration was measured in a subset of 965 subcohort participants and 654 case subjects. A genetic score of the AHSG single nucleotide polymorphisms was strongly associated with fetuin-A (28% explained variation). Using the genetic score as instrumental variable of fetuin-A, we observed no significant association of a 50 mu g/mL higher fetuin-A concentration with diabetes risk (hazard ratio 1.02 [95% CI 0.97, 1.07]). Combining our results with those from the DIAbetes Genetics Replication And Meta-analysis (DIAGRAM) consortium (12,171 case subjects) also did not suggest a clear significant relation of fetuin-A with diabetes risk. In conclusion, although there is mechanistic evidence for an effect of fetuin-A on insulin sensitivity and secretion, this study does not support a strong, relevant relationship between circulating fetuin-A and diabetes risk in the general population.
Deep lipidomics in human plasma: cardiometabolic disease risk and effect of dietary fat modulation
(2022)
Background: In blood and tissues, dietary and endogenously generated fatty acids (FAs) occur in free form or as part of complex lipid molecules that collectively represent the lipidome of the respective tissue. We assessed associations of plasma lipids derived from high-resolution lipidomics with incident cardiometabolic diseases and subsequently tested if the identified risk-associated lipids were sensitive to dietary fat modification. Methods: The EPIC Potsdam cohort study (European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition) comprises 27 548 participants recruited within an age range of 35 to 65 years from the general population around Potsdam, Germany. We generated 2 disease-specific case cohorts on the basis of a fixed random subsample (n=1262) and all respective cohort-wide identified incident primary cardiovascular disease (composite of fatal and nonfatal myocardial infarction and stroke; n=551) and type 2 diabetes (n=775) cases. We estimated the associations of baseline plasma concentrations of 282 class-specific FA abundances (calculated from 940 distinct molecular species across 15 lipid classes) with the outcomes in multivariable-adjusted Cox models. We tested the effect of an isoenergetic dietary fat modification on risk-associated lipids in the DIVAS randomized controlled trial (Dietary Intervention and Vascular Function; n=113). Participants consumed either a diet rich in saturated FAs (control), monounsaturated FAs, or a mixture of monounsaturated and n-6 polyunsaturated FAs for 16 weeks. Results: Sixty-nine lipids associated (false discovery rate<0.05) with at least 1 outcome (both, 8; only cardiovascular disease, 49; only type 2 diabetes, 12). In brief, several monoacylglycerols and FA16:0 and FA18:0 in diacylglycerols were associated with both outcomes; cholesteryl esters, free fatty acids, and sphingolipids were largely cardiovascular disease specific; and several (glycero)phospholipids were type 2 diabetes specific. In addition, 19 risk-associated lipids were affected (false discovery rate<0.05) by the diets rich in unsaturated dietary FAs compared with the saturated fat diet (17 in a direction consistent with a potential beneficial effect on long-term cardiometabolic risk). For example, the monounsaturated FA-rich diet decreased diacylglycerol(FA16:0) by 0.4 (95% CI, 0.5-0.3) SD units and increased triacylglycerol(FA22:1) by 0.5 (95% CI, 0.4-0.7) SD units. Conclusions: We identified several lipids associated with cardiometabolic disease risk. A subset was beneficially altered by a dietary fat intervention that supports the substitution of dietary saturated FAs with unsaturated FAs as a potential tool for primary disease prevention.
Diabetesrisikoscores
(2020)
Risikoscores werden zur Identifizierung von Hochrisikopersonen für Typ-2-Diabetes (T2DM) eingesetzt, die von Präventionsmaßnahmen profitieren. Der DIfE – DEUTSCHER DIABETES-RISIKO-TEST® (DRT [DIfE: Deutsches Institut für Ernährungsforschung Potsdam‐Rehbrücke]) wird genutzt, um das absolute 5‑Jahres-Risiko für T2DM zu bestimmen. Da die Berechnung auf nichtklinischen Informationen basiert, kann der Test unabhängig von einem Arztbesuch genutzt werden. Als Grundlage für die Entwicklung von Risikoscores dienen Daten aus prospektiven populationsbezogenen Langzeitstudien. Die sehr gute Vorhersagegüte eines Scores sollte, wie im Fall des DRT, in unabhängigen Populationen bestätigt werden. Neben dem Einsatz durch Ärzte/‑innen und zur individuellen Selbstanamnese können nichtklinische Risikoscores im Kontext breiterer, bevölkerungsbezogener Präventionskonzepte und Informationsangebote zur Senkung des Erkrankungsrisikos Anwendung finden. Durch Krankenkassen abrechenbare Präventionsleistungen sollen im Sinne des deutschen Präventionsgesetzes die Integration von gesundheitsförderndem Verhalten in den Alltag unterstützen. Obwohl Übergewicht und Ernährung relevante Lebensstilrisikofaktoren für T2DM sind, beträgt der Anteil der in Anspruch genommenen Präventionskurse in diesem Bereich nur 3 % der abgerechneten Kurse. Entsprechende Empfehlungen in ärztlichen Untersuchungen könnten eine umfangreichere Inanspruchnahme fördern. Die Verwendung von Risikoscores als Grundlage für systematische und gezielte Handlungsempfehlungen hinsichtlich einer Verhaltensprävention könnte dies, wie es bereits in Richtlinien der kardiovaskulären Prävention etabliert ist, darüber hinaus unterstützen. Auch die Weiterentwicklung der Implementationsforschung ist für den effizienten Einsatz von Risikoscores von Bedeutung.