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Data driven high resolution modeling and spatial analyses of the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany
(2021)
The SARS-CoV-2 virus has spread around the world with over 100 million infections to date, and currently many countries are fighting the second wave of infections. With neither sufficient vaccination capacity nor effective medication, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) remain the measure of choice.
However, NPIs place a great burden on society, the mental health of individuals, and economics. Therefore the cost/benefit ratio must be carefully balanced and a target-oriented small-scale implementation of these NPIs could help achieve this balance.
To this end, we introduce a modified SEIRD-class compartment model and parametrize it locally for all 412 districts of Germany. The NPIs are modeled at district level by time varying contact rates. This high spatial resolution makes it possible to apply geostatistical methods to analyse the spatial patterns of the pandemic in Germany and to compare the results of different spatial resolutions.
We find that the modified SEIRD model can successfully be fitted to the COVID-19 cases in German districts, states, and also nationwide. We propose the correlation length as a further measure, besides the weekly incidence rates, to describe the current situation of the epidemic.
Woody plants are expanding into the Arctic in response to the warming climate. The impact on arctic plant communities is not well understood due to the limited knowledge about plant assembly rules.
Records of past plant diversity over long time series are rare. Here, we applied sedimentary ancient DNA metabarcoding targeting the P6 loop of the chloroplast trnL gene to a sediment record from Lake Ilirney (central Chukotka, Far Eastern Russia) covering the last 28 thousand years.
Our results show that forb-rich steppe-tundra and dwarf-shrub tundra dominated during the cold climate before 14 ka, while deciduous erect-shrub tundra was abundant during the warm period since 14 ka. Larix invasion during the late Holocene substantially lagged behind the likely warmest period between 10 and 6 ka, where the vegetation biomass could be highest.
We reveal highest richness during 28-23 ka and a second richness peak during 13-9 ka, with both periods being accompanied by low relative abundance of shrubs. During the cold period before 14 ka, rich plant assemblages were phylogenetically clustered, suggesting low genetic divergence in the assemblages despite the great number of species. This probably originates from environmental filtering along with niche differentiation due to limited resources under harsh environmental conditions. In contrast, during the warmer period after 14 ka, rich plant assemblages were phylogenetically overdispersed.
This results from a high number of species which were found to harbor high genetic divergence, likely originating from an erratic recruitment process in the course of warming. Some of our evidence may be of relevance for inferring future arctic plant assembly rules and diversity changes. By analogy to the past, we expect a lagged response of tree invasion. Plant richness might overshoot in the short term; in the long-term, however, the ongoing expansion of deciduous shrubs will eventually result in a phylogenetically more diverse community.
Context
Thermonuclear supernovae (SNe), a subset of which are the highly important SNe Type Ia, remain one of the more poorly understood phenomena known to modern astrophysics.
In recent years, the single degenerate helium (He) donor channel, where a white dwarf star accretes He-rich matter from a hydrogen-depleted companion, has emerged as a promising candidate progenitor scenario for these events.
An unresolved question in this scenario is the fate of the companion star, which would be evident as a runaway hot subdwarf O/B stars (He sdO/B) in the aftermath of the SN event.
Aims
Previous studies have shown that the kinematic properties of an ejected companion provide an opportunity to closer examine the properties of an SN progenitor system. However, with the number of observed objects not matching predictions by theory, the viability of this mechanism is called into question.
In this study, we first synthesize a population of companion stars ejected by the aforementioned mechanism, taking into account predicted ejection velocities, the inferred population density in the Galactic mass distribution, and subsequent kinematics in the Galactic potential. We then discuss the astrometric properties of this population.
Methods
We present 10(6) individual ejection trajectories, which were numerically computed with a newly developed, lightweight simulation framework. Initial conditions were randomly generated, but weighted according to the Galactic mass density and ejection velocity data. We then discuss the bulk properties (Galactic distribution and observational parameters) of our sample.
Results
Our synthetic population reflects the Galactic mass distribution.
A peak in the density distribution for close objects is expected in the direction of the Galactic centre. Higher mass runaways should outnumber lower mass ones. If the entire considered mass range is realised, the radial velocity distribution should show a peak at 500 km s(-1).
If only close US 708 analogues are considered, there should be a peak at (similar to 750-850) km s(-1). In either case, US 708 should be a member of the high-velocity tail of the distribution.
Conclusions
We show that the puzzling lack of confirmed surviving companion stars of thermonuclear SNe, though possibly an observation-related selection effect, may indicate a selection against high mass donors in the SD He donor channel.
Human induced pluripotent stem cells (hiPSCs) are a promising cell source to generate the patient-specific lung organoid given their superior differentiation potential. However, the current 3D cell culture approach is tedious and time-consuming with a low success rate and high batch-to-batch variability.
Here, we explored the establishment of lung bud organoids by systematically adjusting the initial confluence levels and homogeneity of cell distribution.
The efficiency of single cell seeding and clump seeding was compared. Instead of the traditional 3D culture, we established a 2.5D organoid culture to enable the direct monitoring of the internal structure via microscopy.
It was found that the cell confluence and distribution prior to induction were two key parameters, which strongly affected hiPSC differentiation trajectories. Lung bud organoids with positive expression of NKX 2.1, in a single-cell seeding group with homogeneously distributed hiPSCs at 70% confluence (SC 70% hom) or a clump seeding group with heterogeneously distributed cells at 90% confluence (CL 90% het), can be observed as early as 9 days post induction.
These results suggest that a successful lung bud organoid formation with single-cell seeding of hiPSCs requires a moderate confluence and homogeneous distribution of cells, while high confluence would be a prominent factor to promote the lung organoid formation when seeding hiPSCs as clumps. 2.5D organoids generated with defined culture conditions could become a simple, efficient, and valuable tool facilitating drug screening, disease modeling and personalized medicine.
Semi-distributed hydrological and water quality models are increasingly used as innovative and scientific-based management tools.
However, their application is usually restricted to the gauging stations where they are originally calibrated, limiting their spatial capability.
In this study, the semi-distributed hydrological water quality model HYPE (HYdrological Predictions for the Environment) was tested spatially to represent nitrate-N (NO3- N) and total phosphorus (TP) concentrations and loads of the nested and heterogeneous Selke catchment (463 km(2)) in central Germany.
First, an automatic calibration procedure and uncertainty analysis were conducted using the DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) tool to simulate discharge, NO3--N and TP concentrations. A multi-site and multi-objective calibration approach was applied using three main gauging stations, covering the most important hydro-meteorological and physiographical characteristics of the whole catchment. Second, the model's capability was tested to represent further internal stations, which were not initially considered for calibration. Results showed that discharge was well represented by the model at all three main stations during both calibration (1994-1998) and validation (1999-2014) periods with lowest Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of 0.71 and maximum Percentage BIAS (PBIAS) of 18.0%.
The model was able to reproduce the seasonal dynamics of NO3--N and TP concentrations with low predictive uncertainty at the three main stations, reflected by PBIAS values in the ranges from 16.1% to 6.4% and from 20.0% to 11.5% for NO3--N and TP load simulations, respectively.
At internal stations, the model could represent reasonably well the seasonal variation of nutrient concentrations with PBIAS values in the ranges from 9.0% to 14.2% for NO3--N and from 25.3% to 34.3% for TP concentration simulations.
Overall, results suggested that the spatial validation of a nutrient transport model can be better ensured when a multi-site and multi-objective calibration approach using archetypical gauging stations is implemented.
Further, results revealed that the delineation of sub-catchments should put more focus on hydro-meteorological conditions than on land-use features.
Previous research has found that comprehenders sometimes predict information that is grammatically unlicensed by sentence constraints. An open question is why such grammatically unlicensed predictions occur. We examined the possibility that unlicensed predictions arise in situations of information conflict, for instance when comprehenders try to predict upcoming words while simultaneously building dependencies with previously encountered elements in memory.
German possessive pronouns are a good testing ground for this hypothesis because they encode two grammatically distinct agreement dependencies: a retrospective one between the possessive and its previously mentioned referent, and a prospective one between the possessive and its following nominal head. In two visual world eye-tracking experiments, we estimated the onset of predictive effects in participants' fixations.
The results showed that the retrospective dependency affected resolution of the prospective dependency by shifting the onset of predictive effects.
We attribute this effect to an interaction between predictive and memory retrieval processes.
Three mitochondrial genomes of early-winged insects (Ephemeroptera: Baetidae and Leptophlebiidae)
(2021)
Mayflies (Ephemeroptera) are a semi-aquatic insect order with comparatively few genomic data available despite their phylogenetic position at the root of the winged-insects and possession of ancestral traits.
Here, we provide three mitochondrial genomes (mtgenomes) from representatives of the two most species-rich families, Baetis rutilocylindratus and Cloeon dipterum (Baetidae), and Habrophlebiodes zijinensis (Leptophlebiidae).
All mtgenomes had a complete set of 13 protein-coding genes and a conserved orientation except for two inverted tRNAs in H. zijinensis.
Phylogenetic reconstructions using 21 mayfly mtgenomes and representatives of seven additional orders recovered both Baetidae and Leptophlebiidae as well supported monophyletic clades, with Ephemeroptera as the sister-taxon to all other winged insects (i.e. Odonata and Neoptera).
Studies conducted in Bangladesh so far did not unequivocally identify the modus operandi of local farmers to perceive and experience the climate variability at a national scale. Hence, this study aims to decipher local farmer's perception on climate variability for the last 10 years, by constructing climate variability index (CVI). Additionally, this study demystified the socio-economic determinants for influencing farmer perception regarding climate variability as well as its impact on their livelihoods. The study was designed on a cross-sectional data through a country-wide primary survey of 16,053 households who were largely dependent on agriculture. A weighted index was constructed for mapping the regional climate variability using model-builder programming in ArcGIS. Also, a multivariable probit model was employed to identify the factors influencing farmers' perception and resulting impact of climate variability on their livelihoods. According to local farmer's perception, the CVI mapping identified that Bangladesh experienced variegated climatic variability since last 10 years. However, local farmer's perception varied with different socio-economic factors like gender, education, farmer's category, credit, monthly income and access to media. Moreover, landless, small and medium farm holders were more aware of the local climate variability and eventually, they also experienced the higher influence of climate variability on their livelihoods. Since an effective mapping of regional climate variability is a sine qua non to devise region specific policies, this study will facilitate the government to determine its priorities, formulate efficacious strategies and thereby help to adapt with future climate-induced risks and vulnerabilities.
Growth differentiation factor 15 (GDF15) is a cytokine best known for affecting systemic energy metabolism through its anorectic action. GDF15 expression and secretion from various organs and tissues is induced in different physiological and pathophysiological states, often linked to mitochondrial stress, leading to highly variable circulating GDF15 levels.
In skeletal muscle and the heart, the basal expression of GDF15 is very low compared to other organs, but GDF15 expression and secretion can be induced in various stress conditions, such as intense exercise and acute myocardial infarction, respectively. GDF15 is thus considered as a myokine and cardiokine. GFRAL, the exclusive receptor for GDF15, is expressed in hindbrain neurons and activation of the GDF15-GFRAL pathway is linked to an increased sympathetic outflow and possibly an activation of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) stress axis.
There is also evidence for peripheral, direct effects of GDF15 on adipose tissue lipolysis and possible autocrine cardiac effects. Metabolic and behavioral outcomes of GDF15 signaling can be beneficial or detrimental, likely depending on the magnitude and duration of the GDF15 signal.
This is especially apparent for GDF15 production in muscle, which can be induced both by exercise and by muscle disease states such as sarcopenia and mitochondrial myopathy.
Background
Static stretching (SS) can impair performance and increase range of motion of a non-exercised or non-stretched muscle, respectively. An underdeveloped research area is the effect of unilateral stretching on non-local force output.
Objective
The objective of this review was to describe the effects of unilateral SS on contralateral, non-stretched, muscle force and identify gaps in the literature.
Methods
A systematic literature search following preferred reporting items for systematic review and meta-analyses Protocols guidelines was performed according to prescribed inclusion and exclusion criteria. Weighted means and ranges highlighted the non-local force output response to unilateral stretching. The physiotherapy evidence database scale was used to assess study risk of bias and methodological quality.
Results
Unilateral stretching protocols from six studies involved 6.3 +/- 2 repetitions of 36.3 +/- 7.4 s with 19.3 +/- 5.7 s recovery between stretches. The mean stretch-induced force deficits exhibited small magnitude effect sizes for both the stretched (-6.7 +/- 7.1%, d = -0.35: 0.01 to -1.8) and contralateral, non-stretched, muscles (-4.0 +/- 4.9%, d = , 0.22: 0.08 to 1.1). Control measures exhibited trivial deficits.
Conclusion
The limited literature examining non-local effects of prolonged SS revealed that both the stretched and contralateral, non-stretched, limbs of young adults demonstrate small magnitude force deficits. However, the frequency of studies with these effects were similar with three measures demonstrating deficits, and four measures showing trivial changes. These results highlight the possible global (non-local) effects of prolonged SS. Further research should investigate effects of lower intensity stretching, upper versus lower body stretching, different age groups, incorporate full warm-ups, and identify predominant mechanisms among others.