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While estimated numbers of past and future climate migrants are alarming, the growing empirical evidence suggests that the association between adverse climate-related events and migration is not universally positive. This dissertation seeks to advance our understanding of when and how climate migration emerges by analyzing heterogeneous climatic influences on migration in low- and middle-income countries. To this end, it draws on established economic theories of migration, datasets from physical and social sciences, causal inference techniques and approaches from systematic literature review. In three of its five chapters, I estimate causal effects of processes of climate change on inequality and migration in India and Sub-Saharan Africa. By employing interaction terms and by analyzing sub-samples of data, I explore how these relationships differ for various segments of the population. In the remaining two chapters, I present two systematic literature reviews. First, I undertake a comprehensive meta-regression analysis of the econometric climate migration literature to summarize general climate migration patterns and explain the conflicting findings. Second, motivated by the broad range of approaches in the field, I examine the literature from a methodological perspective to provide best practice guidelines for studying climate migration empirically. Overall, the evidence from this dissertation shows that climatic influences on human migration are highly heterogeneous. Whether adverse climate-related impacts materialize in migration depends on the socio-economic characteristics of the individual households, such as wealth, level of education, agricultural dependence or access to adaptation technologies and insurance. For instance, I show that while adverse climatic shocks are generally associated with an increase in migration in rural India, they reduce migration in the agricultural context of Sub-Saharan Africa, where the average wealth levels are much lower so that households largely cannot afford the upfront costs of moving. I find that unlike local climatic shocks which primarily enhance internal migration to cities and hence accelerate urbanization, shocks transmitted via agricultural producer prices increase migration to neighboring countries, likely due to the simultaneous decrease in real income in nearby urban areas. These findings advance our current understanding by showing when and how economic agents respond to climatic events, thus providing explicit contexts and mechanisms of climate change effects on migration in the future. The resulting collection of findings can guide policy interventions to avoid or mitigate any present and future welfare losses from climate change-related migration choices.
Biodiversity and abundance of wildlife has dramatically declined in agricultural landscapes. Sown, short-lived wildflower (WF) strips along the margins of crop fields are a widespread and often subsidised in agri-environmental schemes, intended to enhance biodiversity, provide refuges for wild plant and arthropod populations and to provide ecosystem services to crops. Meanwhile, WF elements are also criticised, since their functionality decreases with plant succession, the removal of aged WF strip poses an ecological trap for the attracted arthropod populations and only common and mobile species benefit. Further, insects in WF strips are impacted by pesticides from agricultural fields due to shared boundaries with crop fields and by edge effects. The performance of the measure could be improved by combining several WF strips of different successional stages, each harbouring a unique community of plants and arthropods, into persistent, composite WF block, where successional stages exist in parallel. Monitoring data on many taxa in the literature shows, that a third of species are temporarily present in an ageing WF stip, thus offering composite WF blocks should increase cumulative species richness by 28%-39% compared to annual richness in WF strips. Persistence of composite WF blocks would offer reliable refuge for animal and plant populations, also supporting their predators and herbivores. Further, WF blocks have less boundaries to crops compared to WF strips of the same area, and are less impacted by edge effects and pesticides. Policy implications. Here I suggest a change of conservation practice changing from successional WF strips to composite WF blocks. By regular removal and replacement of aged WF strips either within the block (rotational) or at its margins (rolling), the habitat heterogeneity in composite WF block could be perpetuated. Rolling composite WF blocks change locations over years, and the original location can be reconverted to arable land while a nearby WF block is still available to wildlife. A change in agricultural schemes would be necessary, since in some European countries clustered WF strips are explicitly not subsidised.