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Die Bienaymé-Galton-Watson Prozesse können für die Untersuchung von speziellen und sich entwickelnden Populationen verwendet werden. Die Populationen umfassen Individuen, welche sich identisch, zufällig, selbstständig und unabhängig voneinander fortpflanzen und die jeweils nur eine Generation existieren. Die n-te Generation ergibt sich als zufällige Summe der Individuen der (n-1)-ten Generation. Die Relevanz dieser Prozesse begründet sich innerhalb der Historie und der inner- und außermathematischen Bedeutung. Die Geschichte der Bienaymé-Galton-Watson-Prozesse wird anhand der Entwicklung des Konzeptes bis heute dargestellt. Dabei werden die Wissenschaftler:innen verschiedener Disziplinen angeführt, die Erkenntnisse zu dem Themengebiet beigetragen und das Konzept in ihren Fachbereichen angeführt haben. Somit ergibt sich die außermathematische Signifikanz. Des Weiteren erhält man die innermathematische Bedeutsamkeit mittels des Konzeptes der Verzweigungsprozesse, welches auf die Bienaymé-Galton-Watson Prozesse zurückzuführen ist. Die Verzweigungsprozesse stellen eines der aussagekräftigsten Modelle für die Beschreibung des Populationswachstums dar. Darüber hinaus besteht die derzeitige Wichtigkeit durch die Anwendungsmöglichkeit der Verzweigungsprozesse und der Bienaymé-Galton-Watson Prozesse innerhalb der Epidemiologie. Es werden die Ebola- und die Corona-Pandemie als Anwendungsfelder angeführt. Die Prozesse dienen als Entscheidungsstütze für die Politik und ermöglichen Aussagen über die Auswirkungen von Maßnahmen bezüglich der Pandemien. Neben den Prozessen werden ebenfalls der bedingte Erwartungswert bezüglich diskreter Zufallsvariablen, die wahrscheinlichkeitserzeugende Funktion und die zufällige Summe eingeführt. Die Konzepte vereinfachen die Beschreibung der Prozesse und bilden somit die Grundlage der Betrachtungen. Außerdem werden die benötigten und weiterführenden Eigenschaften der grundlegenden Themengebiete und der Prozesse aufgeführt und bewiesen. Das Kapitel erreicht seinen Höhepunkt bei dem Beweis des Kritikalitätstheorems, wodurch eine Aussage über das Aussterben des Prozesses in verschiedenen Fällen und somit über die Aussterbewahrscheinlichkeit getätigt werden kann. Die Fälle werden anhand der zu erwartenden Anzahl an Nachkommen eines Individuums unterschieden. Es zeigt sich, dass ein Prozess bei einer zu erwartenden Anzahl kleiner gleich Eins mit Sicherheit ausstirbt und bei einer Anzahl größer als Eins, die Population nicht in jedem Fall aussterben muss. Danach werden einzelne Beispiele, wie der linear fractional case, die Population von Fibroblasten (Bindegewebszellen) von Mäusen und die Entstehungsfragestellung der Prozesse, angeführt. Diese werden mithilfe der erlangten Ergebnisse untersucht und einige ausgewählte zufällige Dynamiken werden im nachfolgenden Kapitel simuliert. Die Simulationen erfolgen durch ein in Python erstelltes Programm und werden mithilfe der Inversionsmethode realisiert. Die Simulationen stellen beispielhaft die Entwicklungen in den verschiedenen Kritikalitätsfällen der Prozesse dar. Zudem werden die Häufigkeiten der einzelnen Populationsgrößen in Form von Histogrammen angebracht. Dabei lässt sich der Unterschied zwischen den einzelnen Fällen bestätigen und es wird die Anwendungsmöglichkeit der Bienaymé-Galton-Watson Prozesse bei komplexeren Problemen deutlich. Histogramme bekräftigen, dass die einzelnen Populationsgrößen nur endlich oft vorkommen. Diese Aussage wurde von Galton aufgeworfen und in der Extinktions-Explosions-Dichotomie verwendet. Die dargestellten Erkenntnisse über das Themengebiet und die Betrachtung des Konzeptes werden mit einer didaktischen Analyse abgeschlossen. Die Untersuchung beinhaltet die Berücksichtigung der Fundamentalen Ideen, der Fundamentalen Ideen der Stochastik und der Leitidee „Daten und Zufall“. Dabei ergibt sich, dass in Abhängigkeit der gewählten Perspektive die Anwendung der Bienaymé-Galton-Watson Prozesse innerhalb der Schule plausibel ist und von Vorteil für die Schüler:innen sein kann. Für die Behandlung wird exemplarisch der Rahmenlehrplan für Berlin und Brandenburg analysiert und mit dem Kernlehrplan Nordrhein-Westfalens verglichen. Die Konzeption des Lehrplans aus Berlin und Brandenburg lässt nicht den Schluss zu, dass die Bienaymé-Galton-Watson Prozesse angewendet werden sollten. Es lässt sich feststellen, dass die zugrunde liegende Leitidee nicht vollumfänglich mit manchen Fundamentalen Ideen der Stochastik vereinbar ist. Somit würde eine Modifikation hinsichtlich einer stärkeren Orientierung des Lehrplans an den Fundamentalen Ideen die Anwendung der Prozesse ermöglichen. Die Aussage wird durch die Betrachtung und Übertragung eines nordrhein-westfälischen Unterrichtsentwurfes für stochastische Prozesse auf die Bienaymé-Galton-Watson Prozesse unterstützt. Darüber hinaus werden eine Concept Map und ein Vernetzungspentagraph nach von der Bank konzipiert um diesen Aspekt hervorzuheben.
In June 2018, after 4 years of cruise, the Japanese space probe Hayabusa2 [1-Watanabe S. et al.: Hayabusa2 Mission Overview. (2017)] reached the Near-Earth Asteroid (162173) Ryugu. Hayabusa2 carried a small Lander named MASCOT (Mobile Asteroid Surface Scout) [2-Ho T. M. et al.: MASCOT-The Mobile Asteroid Surface Scout onboard the Hayabusa2 mission. (2017)], jointly developed by the German Aerospace Center (DLR) and the French Space Agency (CNES), to investigate Ryugu's surface structure, composition and physical properties including its thermal behaviour and magnetization in-situ. The Microgravity User Support Centre (DLR-MUSC) in Cologne was in charge of providing all thermal conditions and constraints necessary for the selection of the final landing site and for the final operations of the Lander MASCOT on the surface of the asteroid Ryugu. This article provides a comprehensive assessment of these thermal conditions and constraints, based on predictions performed with the Thermal Mathematical Model (TMM) of MASCOT using different asteroid surface thermal models, ephemeris data for approach as well as descent and hopping trajectories, the related operation sequences and scenarios and the possible environmental conditions driven by the Hayabusa2 spacecraft. A comparison with the real telemetry data confirms the analysis and provides further information about the asteroid characteristics.
In the semiclassical limit (h) over bar -> 0, we analyze a class of self-adjoint Schrodinger operators H-(h) over bar = (h) over bar L-2 + (h) over barW + V center dot id(E) acting on sections of a vector bundle E over an oriented Riemannian manifold M where L is a Laplace type operator, W is an endomorphism field and the potential energy V has non-degenerate minima at a finite number of points m(1),... m(r) is an element of M, called potential wells. Using quasimodes of WKB-type near m(j) for eigenfunctions associated with the low lying eigenvalues of H-(h) over bar, we analyze the tunneling effect, i.e. the splitting between low lying eigenvalues, which e.g. arises in certain symmetric configurations. Technically, we treat the coupling between different potential wells by an interaction matrix and we consider the case of a single minimal geodesic (with respect to the associated Agmon metric) connecting two potential wells and the case of a submanifold of minimal geodesics of dimension l + 1. This dimension l determines the polynomial prefactor for exponentially small eigenvalue splitting.
The Kramers problem for SDEs driven by small, accelerated Lévy noise with exponentially light jumps
(2021)
We establish Freidlin-Wentzell results for a nonlinear ordinary differential equation starting close to the stable state 0, say, subject to a perturbation by a stochastic integral which is driven by an epsilon-small and (1/epsilon)-accelerated Levy process with exponentially light jumps. For this purpose, we derive a large deviations principle for the stochastically perturbed system using the weak convergence approach developed by Budhiraja, Dupuis, Maroulas and collaborators in recent years. In the sequel, we solve the associated asymptotic first escape problem from the bounded neighborhood of 0 in the limit as epsilon -> 0 which is also known as the Kramers problem in the literature.
The geomagnetic Kp index is one of the most extensively used indices of geomagnetic activity, both for scientific and operational purposes. This article reviews the properties of the Kp index and provides a reference for users of the Kp index and associated data products as derived and distributed by the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences. The near real-time production of the nowcast Kp index is of particular interest for space weather services and here we describe and evaluate its current setup.
We adapt the Faddeev-LeVerrier algorithm for the computation of characteristic polynomials to the computation of the Pfaffian of a skew-symmetric matrix. This yields a very simple, easy to implement and parallelize algorithm of computational cost O(n(beta+1)) where nis the size of the matrix and O(n(beta)) is the cost of multiplying n x n-matrices, beta is an element of [2, 2.37286). We compare its performance to that of other algorithms and show how it can be used to compute the Euler form of a Riemannian manifold using computer algebra.
Data-driven prediction and physics-agnostic machine-learning methods have attracted increased interest in recent years achieving forecast horizons going well beyond those to be expected for chaotic dynamical systems. In a separate strand of research data-assimilation has been successfully used to optimally combine forecast models and their inherent uncertainty with incoming noisy observations. The key idea in our work here is to achieve increased forecast capabilities by judiciously combining machine-learning algorithms and data assimilation. We combine the physics-agnostic data -driven approach of random feature maps as a forecast model within an ensemble Kalman filter data assimilation procedure. The machine-learning model is learned sequentially by incorporating incoming noisy observations. We show that the obtained forecast model has remarkably good forecast skill while being computationally cheap once trained. Going beyond the task of forecasting, we show that our method can be used to generate reliable ensembles for probabilistic forecasting as well as to learn effective model closure in multi-scale systems. (C) 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Geomagnetic field modeling using spherical harmonics requires the inversion for hundreds to thousands of parameters. This large-scale problem can always be formulated as an optimization problem, where a global minimum of a certain cost function has to be calculated. A variety of approaches is known in order to solve this inverse problem, e.g. derivative-based methods or least-squares methods and their variants. Each of these methods has its own advantages and disadvantages, which affect for example the applicability to non-differentiable functions or the runtime of the corresponding algorithm.
In this work, we pursue the goal to find an algorithm which is faster than the established methods and which is applicable to non-linear problems. Such non-linear problems occur for example when estimating Euler angles or when the more robust L_1 norm is applied. Therefore, we will investigate the usability of stochastic optimization methods from the CMAES family for modeling the geomagnetic field of Earth's core. On one hand, basics of core field modeling and their parameterization are discussed using some examples from the literature. On the other hand, the theoretical background of the stochastic methods are provided. A specific CMAES algorithm was successfully applied in order to invert data of the Swarm satellite mission and to derive the core field model EvoMag. The EvoMag model agrees well with established models and observatory data from Niemegk. Finally, we present some observed difficulties and discuss the results of our model.
The propagation of test fields, such as electromagnetic, Dirac or linearized gravity, on a fixed spacetime manifold is often studied by using the geometrical optics approximation. In the limit of infinitely high frequencies, the geometrical optics approximation provides a conceptual transition between the test field and an effective point-particle description. The corresponding point-particles, or wave rays, coincide with the geodesics of the underlying spacetime. For most astrophysical applications of interest, such as the observation of celestial bodies, gravitational lensing, or the observation of cosmic rays, the geometrical optics approximation and the effective point-particle description represent a satisfactory theoretical model. However, the geometrical optics approximation gradually breaks down as test fields of finite frequency are considered.
In this thesis, we consider the propagation of test fields on spacetime, beyond the leading-order geometrical optics approximation. By performing a covariant Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin analysis for test fields, we show how higher-order corrections to the geometrical optics approximation can be considered. The higher-order corrections are related to the dynamics of the spin internal degree of freedom of the considered test field. We obtain an effective point-particle description, which contains spin-dependent corrections to the geodesic motion obtained using geometrical optics. This represents a covariant generalization of the well-known spin Hall effect, usually encountered in condensed matter physics and in optics. Our analysis is applied to electromagnetic and massive Dirac test fields, but it can easily be extended to other fields, such as linearized gravity. In the electromagnetic case, we present several examples where the gravitational spin Hall effect of light plays an important role. These include the propagation of polarized light rays on black hole spacetimes and cosmological spacetimes, as well as polarization-dependent effects on the shape of black hole shadows. Furthermore, we show that our effective point-particle equations for polarized light rays reproduce well-known results, such as the spin Hall effect of light in an inhomogeneous medium, and the relativistic Hall effect of polarized electromagnetic wave packets encountered in Minkowski spacetime.
Lie group method in combination with Magnus expansion is utilized to develop a universal method applicable to solving a Sturm–Liouville Problem (SLP) of any order with arbitrary boundary conditions. It is shown that the method has ability to solve direct regular and some singular SLPs of even orders (tested up to order eight), with a mix of boundary conditions (including non-separable and finite singular endpoints), accurately and efficiently.
The present technique is successfully applied to overcome the difficulties in finding suitable sets of eigenvalues so that the inverse SLP problem can be effectively solved.
Next, a concrete implementation to the inverse Sturm–Liouville problem
algorithm proposed by Barcilon (1974) is provided. Furthermore, computational feasibility and applicability of this algorithm to solve inverse Sturm–Liouville problems of order n=2,4 is verified successfully. It is observed that the method is successful even in the presence of significant noise, provided that the assumptions of the algorithm are satisfied.
In conclusion, this work provides methods that can be adapted successfully for solving a direct (regular/singular) or inverse SLP of an arbitrary order with arbitrary boundary conditions.