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We introduce three strategies for the analysis of financial time series based on time averaged observables. These comprise the time averaged mean squared displacement (MSD) as well as the ageing and delay time methods for varying fractions of the financial time series. We explore these concepts via statistical analysis of historic time series for several Dow Jones Industrial indices for the period from the 1960s to 2015. Remarkably, we discover a simple universal law for the delay time averaged MSD. The observed features of the financial time series dynamics agree well with our analytical results for the time averaged measurables for geometric Brownian motion, underlying the famed Black–Scholes–Merton model. The concepts we promote here are shown to be useful for financial data analysis and enable one to unveil new universal features of stock market dynamics.
We introduce three strategies for the analysis of financial time series based on time averaged observables. These comprise the time averaged mean squared displacement (MSD) as well as the ageing and delay time methods for varying fractions of the financial time series. We explore these concepts via statistical analysis of historic time series for several Dow Jones Industrial indices for the period from the 1960s to 2015. Remarkably, we discover a simple universal law for the delay time averaged MSD. The observed features of the financial time series dynamics agree well with our analytical results for the time averaged measurables for geometric Brownian motion, underlying the famed Black-Scholes-Merton model. The concepts we promote here are shown to be useful for financial data analysis and enable one to unveil new universal features of stock market dynamics.
How different are the results of constant-rate resetting of anomalous-diffusion processes in terms of their ensemble-averaged versus time-averaged mean-squared displacements (MSDs versus TAMSDs) and how does stochastic resetting impact nonergodicity? We examine, both analytically and by simulations, the implications of resetting on the MSD- and TAMSD-based spreading dynamics of particles executing fractional Brownian motion (FBM) with a long-time memory, heterogeneous diffusion processes (HDPs) with a power-law space-dependent diffusivity D(x) = D0|x|gamma and their "combined" process of HDP-FBM. We find, inter alia, that the resetting dynamics of originally ergodic FBM for superdiffusive Hurst exponents develops disparities in scaling and magnitudes of the MSDs and mean TAMSDs indicating weak ergodicity breaking. For subdiffusive HDPs we also quantify the nonequivalence of the MSD and TAMSD and observe a new trimodal form of the probability density function. For reset FBM, HDPs and HDP-FBM we compute analytically and verify by simulations the short-time MSD and TAMSD asymptotes and long-time plateaus reminiscent of those for processes under confinement. We show that certain characteristics of these reset processes are functionally similar despite a different stochastic nature of their nonreset variants. Importantly, we discover nonmonotonicity of the ergodicitybreaking parameter EB as a function of the resetting rate r. For all reset processes studied we unveil a pronounced resetting-induced nonergodicity with a maximum of EB at intermediate r and EB similar to(1/r )-decay at large r. Alongside the emerging MSD-versus-TAMSD disparity, this r-dependence of EB can be an experimentally testable prediction. We conclude by discussing some implications to experimental systems featuring resetting dynamics.
How ergodic is diffusion under harmonic confinements? How strongly do ensemble- and time-averaged displacements differ for a thermally-agitated particle performing confined motion for different initial conditions? We here study these questions for the generic Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process and derive the analytical expressions for the second and fourth moment. These quantifiers are particularly relevant for the increasing number of single-particle tracking experiments using optical traps. For a fixed starting position, we discuss the definitions underlying the ensemble averages. We also quantify effects of equilibrium and nonequilibrium initial particle distributions onto the relaxation properties and emerging nonequivalence of the ensemble- and time-averaged displacements (even in the limit of long trajectories). We derive analytical expressions for the ergodicity breaking parameter quantifying the amplitude scatter of individual time-averaged trajectories, both for equilibrium and outof-equilibrium initial particle positions, in the entire range of lag times. Our analytical predictions are in excellent agreement with results of computer simulations of the Langevin equation in a parabolic potential. We also examine the validity of the Einstein relation for the ensemble- and time-averaged moments of the OU-particle. Some physical systems, in which the relaxation and nonergodic features we unveiled may be observable, are discussed.
The role of ergodicity in anomalous stochastic processes - analysis of single-particle trajectories
(2012)
Single-particle experiments produce time series x(t) of individual particle trajectories, frequently revealing anomalous diffusion behaviour. Typically, individual x(t) are evaluated in terms of time-averaged quantities instead of ensemble averages. Here we discuss the behaviour of the time-averaged mean squared displacement of different stochastic processes giving rise to anomalous diffusion. In particular, we pay attention to the ergodic properties of these processes, i.e. the (non)equivalence of time and ensemble averages.
This paper introduces and analyses a general statistical model, termed the RAndom RElaxations (RARE) model, of random relaxation processes in disordered systems. The model considers excitations that are randomly scattered around a reaction center in a general embedding space. The model's input quantities are the spatial scattering statistics of the excitations around the reaction center, and the chemical reaction rates between the excitations and the reaction center as a function of their mutual distance. The framework of the RARE model is versatile and a detailed stochastic analysis of the random relaxation processes is established. Analytic results regarding the duration and the range of the random relaxation processes, as well as the model's thermodynamic limit, are obtained in closed form. In particular, the case of power-law inputs, which turn out to yield stretched exponential relaxation patterns and asymptotically Paretian relaxation ranges, is addressed in detail.
In this study we investigate, using all-atom molecular-dynamics computer simulations, the in-plane diffusion of a doxorubicin drug molecule in a thin film of water confined between two silica surfaces. We find that the molecule diffuses along the channel in the manner of a Gaussian diffusion process, but with parameters that vary according to its varying transversal position. Our analysis identifies that four Gaussians, each describing particle motion in a given transversal region, are needed to adequately describe the data. Each of these processes by itself evolves with time at a rate slower than that associated with classical Brownian motion due to a predominance of anticorrelated displacements. Long adsorption events lead to ageing, a property observed when the diffusion is intermittently hindered for periods of time with an average duration which is theoretically infinite. This study presents a simple system in which many interesting features of anomalous diffusion can be explored. It exposes the complexity of diffusion in nanoconfinement and highlights the need to develop new understanding.
Brownian motion and viscoelastic anomalous diffusion in homogeneous environments are intrinsically Gaussian processes. In a growing number of systems, however, non-Gaussian displacement distributions of these processes are being reported. The physical cause of the non-Gaussianity is typically seen in different forms of disorder. These include, for instance, imperfect "ensembles" of tracer particles, the presence of local variations of the tracer mobility in heteroegenous environments, or cases in which the speed or persistence of moving nematodes or cells are distributed. From a theoretical point of view stochastic descriptions based on distributed ("superstatistical") transport coefficients as well as time-dependent generalisations based on stochastic transport parameters with built-in finite correlation time are invoked. After a brief review of the history of Brownian motion and the famed Gaussian displacement distribution, we here provide a brief introduction to the phenomenon of non-Gaussianity and the stochastic modelling in terms of superstatistical and diffusing-diffusivity approaches.
Recent advances in single particle tracking and supercomputing techniques demonstrate the emergence of normal or anomalous, viscoelastic diffusion in conjunction with non-Gaussian distributions in soft, biological, and active matter systems. We here formulate a stochastic model based on a generalised Langevin equation in which non-Gaussian shapes of the probability density function and normal or anomalous diffusion have a common origin, namely a random parametrisation of the stochastic force. We perform a detailed analysis demonstrating how various types of parameter distributions for the memory kernel result in exponential, power law, or power-log law tails of the memory functions. The studied system is also shown to exhibit a further unusual property: the velocity has a Gaussian one point probability density but non-Gaussian joint distributions. This behaviour is reflected in the relaxation from a Gaussian to a non-Gaussian distribution observed for the position variable. We show that our theoretical results are in excellent agreement with stochastic simulations.
Recent advances in single particle tracking and supercomputing techniques demonstrate the emergence of normal or anomalous, viscoelastic diffusion in conjunction with non-Gaussian distributions in soft, biological, and active matter systems. We here formulate a stochastic model based on a generalised Langevin equation in which non-Gaussian shapes of the probability density function and normal or anomalous diffusion have a common origin, namely a random parametrisation of the stochastic force. We perform a detailed analysis demonstrating how various types of parameter distributions for the memory kernel result in exponential, power law, or power-log law tails of the memory functions. The studied system is also shown to exhibit a further unusual property: the velocity has a Gaussian one point probability density but non-Gaussian joint distributions. This behaviour is reflected in the relaxation from a Gaussian to a non-Gaussian distribution observed for the position variable. We show that our theoretical results are in excellent agreement with stochastic simulations.