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Plant population modelling has been around since the 1970s, providing a valuable approach to understanding plant ecology from a mechanistic standpoint. It is surprising then that this area of research has not grown in prominence with respect to other approaches employed in modelling plant systems. In this review, we provide an analysis of the development and role of modelling in the field of plant population biology through an exploration of where it has been, where it is now and, in our opinion, where it should be headed. We focus, in particular, on the role plant population modelling could play in ecological forecasting, an urgent need given current rates of regional and global environmental change. We suggest that a critical element limiting the current application of plant population modelling in environmental research is the trade-off between the necessary resolution and detail required to accurately characterize ecological dynamics pitted against the goal of generality, particularly at broad spatial scales. In addition to suggestions how to overcome the current shortcoming of data on the process-level we discuss two emerging strategies that may offer a way to overcome the described limitation: (1) application of a modern approach to spatial scaling from local processes to broader levels of interaction and (2) plant functional-type modelling. Finally we outline what we believe to be needed in developing these approaches towards a 'science of forecasting'.
Regional variation in nitrogen (N) deposition increases plant productivity and decreases species diversity, but landscape- or local -scale influences on N deposition are less well-known. Using ion-exchange resin, we measured variation of N deposition and soil N availability within Elk Island National Park in the ecotone between grassland and boreal forest in western Canada. The park receives regionally high amounts of atmospheric N deposition (22 kg ha(-1) yr(- 1)). N deposition was on average higher ton clay-rich luvisols than on brunisols, and areas burned 1-15 years previously received more atmospheric N than unburned sites. We suggest that the effects of previous fires and soil type on deposition rate act through differences in canopy structure. The magnitude of these effects varied with the presence of ungulate grazers (bison, moose, elk) and vegetation type (forest, shrubland, grassland). Available soil N (ammonium and nitrate) was higher in burned than unburned sites in the absence of grazing, suggesting an effect of deposition. On grazed sites, differences between fire treatments were small, presumably because the removal of biomass by grazers reduced the effect of fire. Aspen invades native grassland in this region, and our results suggest that fire without grazing might reinforce the expansion of forest into grassland facilitated by N deposition