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The study of outcrop modeling is located at the interface between two fields of expertise, Sedimentology and Computing Geoscience, which respectively investigates and simulates geological heterogeneity observed in the sedimentary record. During the last past years, modeling tools and techniques were constantly improved. In parallel, the study of Phanerozoic carbonate deposits emphasized the common occurrence of a random facies distribution along single depositional domain. Although both fields of expertise are intrinsically linked during outcrop simulation, their respective advances have not been combined in literature to enhance carbonate modeling studies. The present study re-examines the modeling strategy adapted to the simulation of shallow-water carbonate systems, based on a close relationship between field sedimentology and modeling capabilities. In the present study, the evaluation of three commonly used algorithms Truncated Gaussian Simulation (TGSim), Sequential Indicator Simulation (SISim), and Indicator Kriging (IK), were performed for the first time using visual and quantitative comparisons on an ideally suited carbonate outcrop. The results show that the heterogeneity of carbonate rocks cannot be fully simulated using one single algorithm. The operating mode of each algorithm involves capabilities as well as drawbacks that are not capable to match all field observations carried out across the modeling area. Two end members in the spectrum of carbonate depositional settings, a low-angle Jurassic ramp (High Atlas, Morocco) and a Triassic isolated platform (Dolomites, Italy), were investigated to obtain a complete overview of the geological heterogeneity in shallow-water carbonate systems. Field sedimentology and statistical analysis performed on the type, morphology, distribution, and association of carbonate bodies and combined with palaeodepositional reconstructions, emphasize similar results. At the basin scale (x 1 km), facies association, composed of facies recording similar depositional conditions, displays linear and ordered transitions between depositional domains. Contrarily, at the bedding scale (x 0.1 km), individual lithofacies type shows a mosaic-like distribution consisting of an arrangement of spatially independent lithofacies bodies along the depositional profile. The increase of spatial disorder from the basin to bedding scale results from the influence of autocyclic factors on the transport and deposition of carbonate sediments. Scale-dependent types of carbonate heterogeneity are linked with the evaluation of algorithms in order to establish a modeling strategy that considers both the sedimentary characteristics of the outcrop and the modeling capabilities. A surface-based modeling approach was used to model depositional sequences. Facies associations were populated using TGSim to preserve ordered trends between depositional domains. At the lithofacies scale, a fully stochastic approach with SISim was applied to simulate a mosaic-like lithofacies distribution. This new workflow is designed to improve the simulation of carbonate rocks, based on the modeling of each scale of heterogeneity individually. Contrarily to simulation methods applied in literature, the present study considers that the use of one single simulation technique is unlikely to correctly model the natural patterns and variability of carbonate rocks. The implementation of different techniques customized for each level of the stratigraphic hierarchy provides the essential computing flexibility to model carbonate systems. Closer feedback between advances carried out in the field of Sedimentology and Computing Geoscience should be promoted during future outcrop simulations for the enhancement of 3-D geological models.
In soils and sediments there is a strong coupling between local biogeochemical processes and the distribution of water, electron acceptors, acids and nutrients. Both sides are closely related and affect each other from small scale to larger scales. Soil structures such as aggregates, roots, layers or macropores enhance the patchiness of these distributions. At the same time it is difficult to access the spatial distribution and temporal dynamics of these parameter. Noninvasive imaging techniques with high spatial and temporal resolution overcome these limitations. And new non-invasive techniques are needed to study the dynamic interaction of plant roots with the surrounding soil, but also the complex physical and chemical processes in structured soils. In this study we developed an efficient non-destructive in-situ method to determine biogeochemical parameters relevant to plant roots growing in soil. This is a quantitative fluorescence imaging method suitable for visualizing the spatial and temporal pH changes around roots. We adapted the fluorescence imaging set-up and coupled it with neutron radiography to study simultaneously root growth, oxygen depletion by respiration activity and root water uptake. The combined set up was subsequently applied to a structured soil system to map the patchy structure of oxic and anoxic zones induced by a chemical oxygen consumption reaction for spatially varying water contents. Moreover, results from a similar fluorescence imaging technique for nitrate detection were complemented by a numerical modeling study where we used imaging data, aiming to simulate biodegradation under anaerobic, nitrate reducing conditions.
Water management and environmental protection is vulnerable to extreme low flows during streamflow droughts. During the last decades, in most rivers of Central Europe summer runoff and low flows have decreased. Discharge projections agree that future decrease in runoff is likely for catchments in Brandenburg, Germany. Depending on the first-order controls on low flows, different adaption measures are expected to be appropriate. Small catchments were analyzed because they are expected to be more vulnerable to a changing climate than larger rivers. They are mainly headwater catchments with smaller ground water storage. Local characteristics are more important at this scale and can increase vulnerability. This thesis mutually evaluates potential adaption measures to sustain minimum runoff in small catchments of Brandenburg, Germany, and similarities of these catchments regarding low flows. The following guiding questions are addressed: (i) Which first-order controls on low flows and related time scales exist? (ii) Which are the differences between small catchments regarding low flow vulnerability? (iii) Which adaption measures to sustain minimum runoff in small catchments of Brandenburg are appropriate considering regional low flow patterns? Potential adaption measures to sustain minimum runoff during periods of low flows can be classified into three categories: (i) increase of groundwater recharge and subsequent baseflow by land use change, land management and artificial ground water recharge, (ii) increase of water storage with regulated outflow by reservoirs, lakes and wetland water management and (iii) regional low flow patterns have to be considered during planning of measures with multiple purposes (urban water management, waste water recycling and inter-basin water transfer). The question remained whether water management of areas with shallow groundwater tables can efficiently sustain minimum runoff. Exemplary, water management scenarios of a ditch irrigated area were evaluated using the model Hydrus-2D. Increasing antecedent water levels and stopping ditch irrigation during periods of low flows increased fluxes from the pasture to the stream, but storage was depleted faster during the summer months due to higher evapotranspiration. Fluxes from this approx. 1 km long pasture with an area of approx. 13 ha ranged from 0.3 to 0.7 l\s depending on scenario. This demonstrates that numerous of such small decentralized measures are necessary to sustain minimum runoff in meso-scale catchments. Differences in the low flow risk of catchments and meteorological low flow predictors were analyzed. A principal component analysis was applied on daily discharge of 37 catchments between 1991 and 2006. Flows decreased more in Southeast Brandenburg according to meteorological forcing. Low flow risk was highest in a region east of Berlin because of intersection of a more continental climate and the specific geohydrology. In these catchments, flows decreased faster during summer and the low flow period was prolonged. A non-linear support vector machine regression was applied to iteratively select meteorological predictors for annual 30-day minimum runoff in 16 catchments between 1965 and 2006. The potential evapotranspiration sum of the previous 48 months was the most important predictor (r²=0.28). The potential evapotranspiration of the previous 3 months and the precipitation of the previous 3 months and last year increased model performance (r²=0.49, including all four predictors). Model performance was higher for catchments with low yield and more damped runoff. In catchments with high low flow risk, explanatory power of long term potential evapotranspiration was high. Catchments with a high low flow risk as well as catchments with a considerable decrease in flows in southeast Brandenburg have the highest demand for adaption. Measures increasing groundwater recharge are to be preferred. Catchments with high low flow risk showed relatively deep and decreasing groundwater heads allowing increased groundwater recharge at recharge areas with higher altitude away from the streams. Low flows are expected to stay low or decrease even further because long term potential evapotranspiration was the most important low flow predictor and is projected to increase during climate change. Differences in low flow risk and runoff dynamics between catchments have to be considered for management and planning of measures which do not only have the task to sustain minimum runoff.
Even though quite different in occurrence and consequences, from a modeling perspective many natural hazards share similar properties and challenges. Their complex nature as well as lacking knowledge about their driving forces and potential effects make their analysis demanding: uncertainty about the modeling framework, inaccurate or incomplete event observations and the intrinsic randomness of the natural phenomenon add up to different interacting layers of uncertainty, which require a careful handling. Nevertheless deterministic approaches are still widely used in natural hazard assessments, holding the risk of underestimating the hazard with disastrous effects. The all-round probabilistic framework of Bayesian networks constitutes an attractive alternative. In contrast to deterministic proceedings, it treats response variables as well as explanatory variables as random variables making no difference between input and output variables. Using a graphical representation Bayesian networks encode the dependency relations between the variables in a directed acyclic graph: variables are represented as nodes and (in-)dependencies between variables as (missing) edges between the nodes. The joint distribution of all variables can thus be described by decomposing it, according to the depicted independences, into a product of local conditional probability distributions, which are defined by the parameters of the Bayesian network. In the framework of this thesis the Bayesian network approach is applied to different natural hazard domains (i.e. seismic hazard, flood damage and landslide assessments). Learning the network structure and parameters from data, Bayesian networks reveal relevant dependency relations between the included variables and help to gain knowledge about the underlying processes. The problem of Bayesian network learning is cast in a Bayesian framework, considering the network structure and parameters as random variables itself and searching for the most likely combination of both, which corresponds to the maximum a posteriori (MAP score) of their joint distribution given the observed data. Although well studied in theory the learning of Bayesian networks based on real-world data is usually not straight forward and requires an adoption of existing algorithms. Typically arising problems are the handling of continuous variables, incomplete observations and the interaction of both. Working with continuous distributions requires assumptions about the allowed families of distributions. To "let the data speak" and avoid wrong assumptions, continuous variables are instead discretized here, thus allowing for a completely data-driven and distribution-free learning. An extension of the MAP score, considering the discretization as random variable as well, is developed for an automatic multivariate discretization, that takes interactions between the variables into account. The discretization process is nested into the network learning and requires several iterations. Having to face incomplete observations on top, this may pose a computational burden. Iterative proceedings for missing value estimation become quickly infeasible. A more efficient albeit approximate method is used instead, estimating the missing values based only on the observations of variables directly interacting with the missing variable. Moreover natural hazard assessments often have a primary interest in a certain target variable. The discretization learned for this variable does not always have the required resolution for a good prediction performance. Finer resolutions for (conditional) continuous distributions are achieved with continuous approximations subsequent to the Bayesian network learning, using kernel density estimations or mixtures of truncated exponential functions. All our proceedings are completely data-driven. We thus avoid assumptions that require expert knowledge and instead provide domain independent solutions, that are applicable not only in other natural hazard assessments, but in a variety of domains struggling with uncertainties.
Antarctic glacier forfields are extreme environments and pioneer sites for ecological succession. The Antarctic continent shows microbial community development as a natural laboratory because of its special environment, geographic isolation and little anthropogenic influence. Increasing temperatures due to global warming lead to enhanced deglaciation processes in cold-affected habitats and new terrain is becoming exposed to soil formation and accessible for microbial colonisation. This study aims to understand the structure and development of glacier forefield bacterial communities, especially how soil parameters impact the microorganisms and how those are adapted to the extreme conditions of the habitat. To this effect, a combination of cultivation experiments, molecular, geophysical and geochemical analysis was applied to examine two glacier forfields of the Larsemann Hills, East Antarctica. Culture-independent molecular tools such as terminal restriction length polymorphism (T-RFLP), clone libraries and quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR) were used to determine bacterial diversity and distribution. Cultivation of yet unknown species was carried out to get insights in the physiology and adaptation of the microorganisms. Adaptation strategies of the microorganisms were studied by determining changes of the cell membrane phospholipid fatty acid (PLFA) inventory of an isolated bacterium in response to temperature and pH fluctuations and by measuring enzyme activity at low temperature in environmental soil samples. The two studied glacier forefields are extreme habitats characterised by low temperatures, low water availability and small oligotrophic nutrient pools and represent sites of different bacterial succession in relation to soil parameters. The investigated sites showed microbial succession at an early step of soil formation near the ice tongue in comparison to closely located but rather older and more developed soil from the forefield. At the early step the succession is influenced by a deglaciation-dependent areal shift of soil parameters followed by a variable and prevalently depth-related distribution of the soil parameters that is driven by the extreme Antarctic conditions. The dominant taxa in the glacier forefields are Actinobacteria, Acidobacteria, Proteobacteria, Bacteroidetes, Cyanobacteria and Chloroflexi. The connection of soil characteristics with bacterial community structure showed that soil parameter and soil formation along the glacier forefield influence the distribution of certain phyla. In the early step of succession the relative undifferentiated bacterial diversity reflects the undifferentiated soil development and has a high potential to shift according to past and present environmental conditions. With progressing development environmental constraints such as water or carbon limitation have a greater influence. Adapting the culturing conditions to the cold and oligotrophic environment, the number of culturable heterotrophic bacteria reached up to 108 colony forming units per gram soil and 148 isolates were obtained. Two new psychrotolerant bacteria, Herbaspirillum psychrotolerans PB1T and Chryseobacterium frigidisoli PB4T, were characterised in detail and described as novel species in the family of Oxalobacteraceae and Flavobacteriaceae, respectively. The isolates are able to grow at low temperatures tolerating temperature fluctuations and they are not specialised to a certain substrate, therefore they are well-adapted to the cold and oligotrophic environment. The adaptation strategies of the microorganisms were analysed in environmental samples and cultures focussing on extracellular enzyme activity at low temperature and PLFA analyses. Extracellular phosphatases (pH 11 and pH 6.5), β-glucosidase, invertase and urease activity were detected in the glacier forefield soils at low temperature (14°C) catalysing the conversion of various compounds providing necessary substrates and may further play a role in the soil formation and total carbon turnover of the habitat. The PLFA analysis of the newly isolated species C. frigidisoli showed that the cold-adapted strain develops different strategies to maintain the cell membrane function under changing environmental conditions by altering the PLFA inventory at different temperatures and pH values. A newly discovered fatty acid, which was not found in any other microorganism so far, significantly increased at decreasing temperature and low pH and thus plays an important role in the adaption of C. frigidisoli. This work gives insights into the diversity, distribution and adaptation mechanisms of microbial communities in oligotrophic cold-affected soils and shows that Antarctic glacier forefields are suitable model systems to study bacterial colonisation in connection to soil formation.
Within a research project about future sustainable water management options in the Elbe River basin, quasi-natural discharge scenarios had to be provided. The semi-distributed eco-hydrological model SWIM was utilised for this task. According to scenario simulations driven by the stochastical climate model STAR, the region would get distinctly drier. However, this thesis focuses on the challenge of meeting the requirement of high model fidelity even for smaller sub-basins. Usually, the quality of the simulations is lower at inner points than at the outlet. Four research paper chapters and the discussion chapter deal with the reasons for local model deviations and the problem of optimal spatial calibration. Besides other assessments, the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method is applied to show whether evapotranspiration or precipitation should be corrected to minimise runoff deviations, principal component analysis is used in an unusual way to evaluate local precipitation alterations by land cover changes, and remotely sensed surface temperatures allow for an independent view on the evapotranspiration landscape. The overall insight is that spatially explicit hydrological modelling of such a large river basin requires a lot of local knowledge. It probably needs more time to obtain such knowledge as is usually provided for hydrological modelling studies.
Die Anpassung von Sektoren an veränderte klimatische Bedingungen erfordert ein Verständnis von regionalen Vulnerabilitäten. Vulnerabilität ist als Funktion von Sensitivität und Exposition, welche potentielle Auswirkungen des Klimawandels darstellen, und der Anpassungsfähigkeit von Systemen definiert. Vulnerabilitätsstudien, die diese Komponenten quantifizieren, sind zu einem wichtigen Werkzeug in der Klimawissenschaft geworden. Allerdings besteht von der wissenschaftlichen Perspektive aus gesehen Uneinigkeit darüber, wie diese Definition in Studien umgesetzt werden soll. Ausdiesem Konflikt ergeben sich viele Herausforderungen, vor allem bezüglich der Quantifizierung und Aggregierung der einzelnen Komponenten und deren angemessenen Komplexitätsniveaus. Die vorliegende Dissertation hat daher zum Ziel die Anwendbarkeit des Vulnerabilitätskonzepts voranzubringen, indem es in eine systematische Struktur übersetzt wird. Dies beinhaltet alle Komponenten und schlägt für jede Klimaauswirkung (z.B. Sturzfluten) eine Beschreibung des vulnerablen Systems vor (z.B. Siedlungen), welches direkt mit einer bestimmten Richtung eines relevanten klimatischen Stimulus in Verbindung gebracht wird (z.B. stärkere Auswirkungen bei Zunahme der Starkregentage). Bezüglich der herausfordernden Prozedur der Aggregierung werden zwei alternative Methoden, die einen sektorübergreifenden Überblick ermöglichen, vorgestellt und deren Vor- und Nachteile diskutiert. Anschließend wird die entwickelte Struktur einer Vulnerabilitätsstudie mittels eines indikatorbasierten und deduktiven Ansatzes beispielhaft für Gemeinden in Nordrhein-Westfalen in Deutschland angewandt. Eine Übertragbarkeit auf andere Regionen ist dennoch möglich. Die Quantifizierung für die Gemeinden stützt sich dabei auf Informationen aus der Literatur. Da für viele Sektoren keine geeigneten Indikatoren vorhanden waren, werden in dieser Arbeit neue Indikatoren entwickelt und angewandt, beispielsweise für den Forst- oder Gesundheitssektor. Allerdings stellen fehlende empirische Daten bezüglich relevanter Schwellenwerte eine Lücke dar, beispielsweise welche Stärke von Klimaänderungen eine signifikante Auswirkung hervorruft. Dies führt dazu, dass die Studie nur relative Aussagen zum Grad der Vulnerabilität jeder Gemeinde im Vergleich zum Rest des Bundeslandes machen kann. Um diese Lücke zu füllen, wird für den Forstsektor beispielhaft die heutige und zukünftige Sturmwurfgefahr von Wäldern berechnet. Zu diesem Zweck werden die Eigenschaften der Wälder mit empirischen Schadensdaten eines vergangenen Sturmereignisses in Verbindung gebracht. Der sich daraus ergebende Sensitivitätswert wird anschließend mit den Windverhältnissen verknüpft. Sektorübergreifende Vulnerabilitätsstudien erfordern beträchtliche Ressourcen, was oft deren Anwendbarkeit erschwert. In einem nächsten Schritt wird daher das Potential einer Vereinfachung der Komplexität anhand zweier sektoraler Beispiele untersucht. Um das Auftreten von Waldbränden vorherzusagen, stehen zahlreiche meteorologische Indices zur Verfügung, welche eine Spannbreite unterschiedlicher Komplexitäten aufweisen. Bezüglich der Anzahl monatlicher Waldbrände weist die relative Luftfeuchtigkeit für die meisten deutschen Bundesländer eine bessere Vorhersagekraft als komplexere Indices auf. Dies ist er Fall, obgleich sie selbst als Eingangsvariable für die komplexeren Indices verwendet wird. Mit Hilfe dieses einzelnen meteorologischen Faktors kann also die Waldbrandgefahr in deutschen Region ausreichend genau ausgedrückt werden, was die Ressourceneffizienz von Studien erhöht. Die Methodenkomplexität wird auf ähnliche Weise hinsichtlich der Anwendung des ökohydrologischen Modells SWIM für die Region Brandenburg untersucht. Die interannuellen Bodenwasserwerte, welche durch dieses Modell simuliert werden, können nur unzureichend durch ein einfacheres statistisches Modell, welches auf denselben Eingangsdaten aufbaut, abgebildet werden. Innerhalb eines Zeithorizonts von Jahrzehnten, kann der statistische Ansatz jedoch das Bodenwasser zufriedenstellend abbilden und zeigt eine Dominanz der Bodeneigenschaft Feldkapazität. Dies deutet darauf hin, dass die Komplexität im Hinblick auf die Anzahl der Eingangsvariablen für langfristige Berechnungen reduziert werden kann. Allerdings sind die Aussagen durch fehlende beobachtete Bodenwasserwerte zur Validierung beschränkt. Die vorliegenden Studien zur Vulnerabilität und ihren Komponenten haben gezeigt, dass eine Anwendung noch immer wissenschaftlich herausfordernd ist. Folgt man der hier verwendeten Vulnerabilitätsdefinition, treten zahlreiche Probleme bei der Implementierung in regionalen Studien auf. Mit dieser Dissertation wurden Fortschritte bezüglich der aufgezeigten Lücken bisheriger Studien erzielt, indem eine systematische Struktur für die Beschreibung und Aggregierung von Vulnerabilitätskomponenten erarbeitet wurde. Hierfür wurden mehrere Ansätze diskutiert, die jedoch Vor- und Nachteile besitzen. Diese sollten vor der Anwendung von zukünftigen Studien daher ebenfalls sorgfältig abgewogen werden. Darüber hinaus hat sich gezeigt, dass ein Potential besteht einige Ansätze zu vereinfachen, jedoch sind hierfür weitere Untersuchungen nötig. Insgesamt konnte die Dissertation die Anwendung von Vulnerabilitätsstudien als Werkzeug zur Unterstützung von Anpassungsmaßnahmen stärken.