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The lakes in the Kenyan Rift Valley offer the unique opportunity to study a wide range of hydrochemical environmental conditions, ranging from freshwater to highly saline and alkaline lakes. Because little is known about the hydro- and biogeochemical conditions in the underlying lake sediments, it was the aim of this study to extend the already existing data sets with data from porewater and biomarker analyses. Additionally, reduced sulphur compounds and sulphate reduction rates in the sediment were determined. The new data was used to examine the anthropogenic and microbial influence on the lakes sediments as well as the influence of the water chemistry on the degradation and preservation of organic matter in the sediment column. The lakes discussed in this study are: Logipi, Eight (a small crater lake in the region of Kangirinyang), Baringo, Bogoria, Naivasha, Oloiden, and Sonachi.
The biomarker compositions were similar in all studied lake sediments; nevertheless, there were some differences between the saline and freshwater lakes. One of those differences is the occurrence of a molecule related to β-carotene, which was only found in the saline lakes. This molecule most likely originates from cyanobacteria, single-celled organisms which are commonly found in saline lakes. In the two freshwater lakes, stigmasterol, a sterol characteristic for freshwater algae, was found. In this study, it was shown that Lakes Bogoria and Sonachi can be used for environmental reconstructions with biomarkers, because the absence of oxygen at the lake bottoms slowed the degradation process. Other lakes, like for example Lake Naivasha, cannot be used for such reconstructions, because of the large anthropogenic influence. But the biomarkers proved to be a useful tool to study those anthropogenic influences. Additionally, it was observed that horizons with a high concentration of elemental sulphur can be used as temporal markers. Those horizons were deposited during times when the lake levels were very low. The sulphur was deposited by microorganisms which are capable of anoxygenic photosynthesis or sulphide oxidation.
The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) has resisted nearly three decades of efforts targeting a cure. Sustained suppression of the virus has remained a challenge, mainly due
to the remarkable evolutionary adaptation that the virus exhibits by the accumulation of drug-resistant mutations in its genome. Current therapeutic strategies aim at achieving and maintaining a low viral burden and typically involve multiple drugs. The choice of optimal combinations of these drugs is crucial, particularly in the background of treatment failure having occurred previously with certain other drugs. An understanding of the dynamics of viral mutant genotypes aids in the assessment of treatment failure with a certain drug
combination, and exploring potential salvage treatment regimens.
Mathematical models of viral dynamics have proved invaluable in understanding the viral life cycle and the impact of antiretroviral drugs. However, such models typically use simplified and coarse-grained mutation schemes, that curbs the extent of their application to drug-specific clinical mutation data, in order to assess potential next-line therapies. Statistical
models of mutation accumulation have served well in dissecting mechanisms of resistance evolution by reconstructing mutation pathways under different drug-environments. While these models perform well in predicting treatment outcomes by statistical learning, they do not incorporate drug effect mechanistically. Additionally, due to an inherent lack of
temporal features in such models, they are less informative on aspects such as predicting mutational abundance at treatment failure. This limits their application in analyzing the
pharmacology of antiretroviral drugs, in particular, time-dependent characteristics of HIV therapy such as pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics, and also in understanding the impact of drug efficacy on mutation dynamics.
In this thesis, we develop an integrated model of in vivo viral dynamics incorporating drug-specific mutation schemes learned from clinical data. Our combined modelling
approach enables us to study the dynamics of different mutant genotypes and assess mutational abundance at virological failure. As an application of our model, we estimate in vivo
fitness characteristics of viral mutants under different drug environments. Our approach also extends naturally to multiple-drug therapies. Further, we demonstrate the versatility of our model by showing how it can be modified to incorporate recently elucidated mechanisms of drug action including molecules that target host factors.
Additionally, we address another important aspect in the clinical management of HIV disease, namely drug pharmacokinetics. It is clear that time-dependent changes in in vivo
drug concentration could have an impact on the antiviral effect, and also influence decisions on dosing intervals. We present a framework that provides an integrated understanding
of key characteristics of multiple-dosing regimens including drug accumulation ratios and half-lifes, and then explore the impact of drug pharmacokinetics on viral suppression.
Finally, parameter identifiability in such nonlinear models of viral dynamics is always a concern, and we investigate techniques that alleviate this issue in our setting.
The ever-increasing fat content in Western diet, combined with decreased levels of physical activity, greatly enhance the incidence of metabolic-related diseases. Cancer cachexia (CC) and Metabolic syndrome (MetS) are both multifactorial highly complex metabolism related syndromes, whose etiology is not fully understood, as the mechanisms underlying their development are not completely unveiled. Nevertheless, despite being considered “opposite sides”, MetS and CC share several common issues such as insulin resistance and low-grade inflammation. In these scenarios, tissue macrophages act as key players, due to their capacity to produce and release inflammatory mediators. One of the main features of MetS is hyperinsulinemia, which is generally associated with an attempt of the β-cell to compensate for diminished insulin sensitivity (insulin resistance). There is growing evidence that hyperinsulinemia per se may contribute to the development of insulin resistance, through the establishment of low grade inflammation in insulin responsive tissues, especially in the liver (as insulin is secreted by the pancreas into the portal circulation). The hypothesis of the present study was that insulin may itself provoke an inflammatory response culminating in diminished hepatic insulin sensitivity. To address this premise, firstly, human cell line U937 differentiated macrophages were exposed to insulin, LPS and PGE2. In these cells, insulin significantly augmented the gene expression of the pro-inflammatory mediators IL-1β, IL-8, CCL2, Oncostatin M (OSM) and microsomal prostaglandin E2 synthase (mPGES1), and of the anti-inflammatory mediator IL-10. Moreover, the synergism between insulin and LPS enhanced the induction provoked by LPS in IL-1β, IL-8, IL-6, CCL2 and TNF-α gene. When combined with PGE2, insulin enhanced the induction provoked by PGE2 in IL-1β, mPGES1 and COX2, and attenuated the inhibition induced by PGE2 in CCL2 and TNF-α gene expression contributing to an enhanced inflammatory response by both mechanisms. Supernatants of insulin-treated U937 macrophages reduced the insulin-dependent induction of glucokinase in hepatocytes by 50%. Cytokines contained in the supernatant of insulin-treated U937 macrophages also activated hepatocytes ERK1/2, resulting in inhibitory serine phosphorylation of the insulin receptor substrate. Additionally, the transcription factor STAT3 was activated by phosphorylation resulting in the induction of SOCS3, which is capable of interrupting the insulin receptor signal chain. MicroRNAs, non-coding RNAs linked to protein expression regulation, nowadays recognized as active players in the generation of several inflammatory disorders such as cancer and type II diabetes are also of interest. Considering that in cancer cachexia, patients are highly affected by insulin resistance and inflammation, control, non-cachectic and cachectic cancer patients were selected and the respective circulating levels of pro-inflammatory mediators and microRNA-21-5p, a posttranscriptional regulator of STAT3 expression, assessed and correlated. Cachectic patients circulating cytokines IL-6 and IL-8 levels were significantly higher than those of non-cachectic and controls, and the expression of microRNA-21-5p was significantly lower. Additionally, microRNA-21-5p reduced expression correlated negatively with IL-6 plasma levels. These results indicate that hyperinsulinemia per se might contribute to the low grade inflammation prevailing in MetS patients and thereby promote the development
of insulin resistance particularly in the liver. Diminished MicroRNA-21-5p expression may enhance inflammation and STAT3 expression in cachectic patients, contributing to the development of insulin resistance.
The cell interior is a highly packed environment in which biological macromolecules evolve and function. This crowded media has effects in many biological processes such as protein-protein binding, gene regulation, and protein folding. Thus, biochemical reactions that take place in such crowded conditions differ from diluted test tube conditions, and a considerable effort has been invested in order to understand such differences.
In this work, we combine different computationally tools to disentangle the effects of molecular crowding on biochemical processes. First, we propose a lattice model to study the implications of molecular crowding on enzymatic reactions. We provide a detailed picture of how crowding affects binding and unbinding events and how the separate effects of crowding on binding equilibrium act together. Then, we implement a lattice model to study the effects of molecular crowding on facilitated diffusion. We find that obstacles on the DNA impair facilitated diffusion. However, the extent of this effect depends on how dynamic obstacles are on the DNA. For the scenario in which crowders are only present in the bulk solution, we find that at some conditions presence of crowding agents can enhance specific-DNA binding. Finally, we make use of structure-based techniques to look at the impact of the presence of crowders on the folding a protein. We find that polymeric crowders have stronger effects on protein stability than spherical crowders. The strength of this effect increases as the polymeric crowders become longer. The methods we propose here are general and can also be applied to more complicated systems.
The collision of bathymetric anomalies, such as oceanic spreading centers, at convergent plate margins can profoundly affect subduction dynamics, magmatism, and the structural and geomorphic evolution of the overriding plate. The Southern Patagonian Andes of South America are a prime example for sustained oceanic ridge collision and the successive formation and widening of an extensive asthenospheric slab window since the Middle Miocene. Several of the predicted upper-plate geologic manifestations of such deep-seated geodynamic processes have been studied in this region, but many topics remain highly debated. One of the main controversial topics is the interpretation of the regional low-temperature thermochronology exhumational record and its relationship with tectonic and/or climate-driven processes, ultimately manifested and recorded in the landscape evolution of the Patagonian Andes. The prominent along-strike variance in the topographic characteristics of the Andes, combined with coupled trends in low-temperature thermochronometer cooling ages have been interpreted in very contrasting ways, considering either purely climatic (i.e. glacial erosion) or geodynamic (slab-window related) controlling factors.
This thesis focuses on two main aspects of these controversial topics. First, based on field observations and bedrock low-temperature thermochronology data, the thesis addresses an existing research gap with respect to the neotectonic activity of the upper plate in response to ridge collision - a mechanism that has been shown to affect the upper plate topography and exhumational patterns in similar tectonic settings. Secondly, the qualitative interpretation of my new and existing thermochronological data from this region is extended by inverse thermal modelling to define thermal histories recorded in the data and evaluate the relative importance of surface vs. geodynamic factors and their possible relationship with the regional cooling record.
My research is centered on the Northern Patagonian Icefield (NPI) region of the Southern Patagonian Andes. This site is located inboard of the present-day location of the Chile Triple Junction - the juncture between the colliding Chile Rise spreading center and the Nazca and Antarctic Plates along the South American convergent margin. As such this study area represents the region of most recent oceanic-ridge collision and associated slab window formation. Importantly, this location also coincides with the abrupt rise in summit elevations and relief characteristics in the Southern Patagonian Andes. Field observations, based on geological, structural and geomorphic mapping, are combined with bedrock apatite (U-Th)/He and apatite fission track (AHe and AFT) cooling ages sampled along elevation transects across the orogen. This new data reveals the existence of hitherto unrecognized neotectonic deformation along the flanks of the range capped by the NPI.
This deformation is associated with the closely spaced oblique collision of successive oceanic-ridge segments in this region over the past 6 Ma. I interpret that this has caused a crustal-scale partitioning of deformation and the decoupling, margin-parallel migration, and localized uplift of a large crustal sliver (the NPI block) along the subduction margin. The location of this uplift coincides with a major increase of summit elevations and relief at the northern edge of the NPI massif. This mechanism is compatible with possible extensional processes along the topographically subdued trailing edge of the NPI block as documented by very recent and possibly still active normal faulting. Taken together, these findings suggest a major structural control on short-wavelength variations in topography in the Southern Patagonian Andes - the region affected by ridge collision and slab window formation.
The second research topic addressed here focuses on using my new and existing bedrock low-temperature cooling ages in forward and inverse thermal modeling. The data was implemented in the HeFTy and QTQt modeling platforms to constrain the late Cenozoic thermal history of the Southern Patagonian Andes in the region of the most recent upper-plate sectors of ridge collision. The data set combines AHe and AFT data from three elevation transects in the region of the Northern Patagonian Icefield. Previous similar studies claimed far-reaching thermal effects of the approaching ridge collision and slab window to affect patterns of Late Miocene reheating in the modelled thermal histories. In contrast, my results show that the currently available data can be explained with a simpler thermal history than previously proposed. Accordingly, a reheating event is not needed to reproduce the observations. Instead, the analyzed ensemble of modelled thermal histories defines a Late Miocene protracted cooling and Pliocene-to-recent stepwise exhumation. These findings agree with the geological record of this region. Specifically, this record indicates an Early Miocene phase of active mountain building associated with surface uplift and an active fold-and-thrust belt, followed by a period of stagnating deformation, peneplanation, and lack of synorogenic deposition in the Patagonian foreland. The subsequent period of stepwise exhumation likely resulted from a combination of pulsed glacial erosion and coeval neotectonic activity. The differences between the present and previously published interpretation of the cooling record can be reconciled with important inconsistencies of previously used model setup. These include mainly the insufficient convergence of the models and improper assumptions regarding the geothermal conditions in the region. This analysis puts a methodological emphasis on the prime importance of the model setup and the need for its thorough examination to evaluate the robustness of the final outcome.
Ziel der vorliegenden Arbeit ist es, belohnungsabhängiges (instrumentelles) Lernen und Entscheidungsfindungsprozesse auf Verhaltens- und neuronaler Ebene in Abhängigkeit von chronischem Stresserleben (erfasst über den Lifetime Stress Inventory, Holmes und Rahe 1962) und kognitiven Variablen (eingeteilt in eine fluide und eine kristalline Intelligenzkomponente) an gesunden Probanden zu untersuchen. Dabei steht zu Beginn die Sicherung der Konstruktvalidität zwischen den bislang oft synonym verwendeten Begriffen modellfrei ~ habituell, bzw. modellbasiert ~ zielgerichtet im Fokus. Darauf aufbauend soll dann insbesondere der differentielle und interaktionelle Einfluss von chronischem Stresserleben und kognitiven Variablen auf Entscheidungsprozesse (instrumentelles Lernen) und deren neuronales Korrelat im VS untersucht und dargestellt werden. Abschließend wird die Relevanz der untersuchten belohnungsabhängigen Lernprozesse für die Entstehung und Aufrechterhaltung der Alkoholabhängigkeit zusammen mit weiteren Einflussvariablen in einem Übersichtspapier diskutiert.
Durch die Zunahme metabolischer Stoffwechselstörungen und Erkrankungen in der Weltbevölkerung wird in der Medizin und den Lebenswissenschaften vermehrt nach Präventionsstrategien und Ansatzpunkten gesucht, die die Gesundheit fördern, Erkrankungen verhindern helfen und damit auch die Gesamtlast auf die Gesundheitssysteme erleichtern. Ein Ansatzpunkt wird dabei in der Ernährung gesehen, da insbesondere der Konsum von gesättigten Fetten die Gesundheit nachträglich zu beeinflussen scheint. Dabei wird übersehen, dass in vielen Studien Hochfettdiäten nicht ausreichend von den Einflüssen einer zum Bedarf hyperkalorischen Energiezufuhr getrennt werden, sodass die Datenlage zu dem Einfluss von (gesättigten) Fetten auf den Metabolismus bei gleichbleibender Energieaufnahme noch immer unzureichend ist.
In der NUtriGenomic Analysis in Twins-Studie wurden 46 Zwillingspaare (34 monozygot, 12 dizygot) über einen Zeitraum von sechs Wochen mittels einer kohlenhydratreichen, fettarmen Diät nach Richtlinien der Deutschen Gesellschaft für Ernährung für ihr Ernährungsverhalten standardisiert, ehe sie zu einer kohlenhydratarmen, fettreichen Diät, die insbesondere gesättigte Fette enthielt, für weitere sechs Wochen wechselten. Beide Diäten waren dem individuellen Energiebedarf der Probanden angepasst, um so sowohl akut nach einerWoche als auch längerfristig nach sechs Wochen Änderungen des Metabolismus beobachten zu können, die sich in der vermehrten Aufnahme von (gesättigten) Fetten begründeten.
Die über die detaillierte Charakterisierung der Probanden an den klinischen Untersuchungstagen generierten Datensätze wurden mit statistischen und mathematischen Methoden (z.B. lineare gemischte Modellierung) analysiert, die der Größe der Datensätze und damit ihrem Informationsvolumen angepasst waren.
Es konnte gezeigt werden, dass die metabolisch gesunden und relativ jungen Probanden, die eine gute Compliance zeigten, im Hinblick auf ihren Glukosestoffwechsel adaptieren konnten, indem die Akutantwort nach einer Woche im Nüchterninsulin und dem Index für Insulinresistenz in den weiteren fünf Wochen ausgeglichen wurde.
Der Lipidstoffwechsel in Form der klassischen Marker wie Gesamtcholesterin, LDL und HDL war dagegen stärker beeinflusst und auch nach insgesamt sechs Wochen deutlich erhöht.
Letzteres unterstützt die Beobachtung im Transkriptom des weißen, subkutanen Fettgewebes, bei der eine Aktivierung der über die Toll-like receptors und das Inflammasom vermittelten subklinischen Inflammation beobachtet werden konnte.
Die auftretenden Veränderungen in Konzentration und Komposition des Plasmalipidoms zeigte ebenfalls nur eine teilweise und auf bestimmte Spezies begrenzte Gegenregulation.
Diesbezüglich kann also geschlussfolgert werden, dass auch die isokalorische Aufnahme von (gesättigten) Fetten zu Veränderungen im Metabolismus führt, wobei die Auswirkungen in weiteren (Langzeit-)Studien und Experimenten noch genauer untersucht werden müssen. Insbesondere wäre dabei ein längerer Zeitraum unter isokalorischen Bedingungen von Interesse und die Untersuchung von Probanden mit metabolischer Vorbelastung (z.B. Insulinresistenz).
Darüber hinaus konnte in NUGAT aber ebenfalls gezeigt werden, dass die Nutrigenetik und Nutrigenomik zwei nicht zu vernachlässigende Faktoren darstellen. So zeigten unter anderem die Konzentrationen einiger Lipidspezies eine starke Erblichkeit und Abhängigkeit der Diät.
Zudem legen die Ergebnisse nahe, dass laufende wie geplante Präventionsstrategien und medizinische Behandlungen deutlich stärker den Patienten als Individuum mit einbeziehen müssen, da die Datenanalyse interindividuelle Unterschiede identifizierte und Hinweise lieferte, dass einige Probanden die nachteiligen, metabolischen Auswirkungen einer Hochfettdiät besser ausgleichen konnten als andere.
Solar-like stars maintain their magnetic fields thanks to a dynamo mechanism. The Babcock-Leighton dynamo is one possible dynamo that has the particularity to require magnetic flux tubes. Magnetic flux tubes are assumed to form at the bottom of the convective zone and rise buoyantly to the surface. A delayed dynamo model has been suggested, where the delay accounts for the rise time of the magnetic flux tubes; a time, that has been ignored by former studies.
The present thesis aims to study the applicability of the flux tube/Babcock-Leighton dynamo to other stars. To do so, we attempt to constrain the rise time of magnetic flux tubes thanks to the first fully compressible MHD simulations of rising magnetic flux tubes in stratified rotating spherical shells.
Such simulations are limited to an unrealistic parameter space, therefore, a scaling relation is required to scale the results to realistic physical regimes. We extended earlier works on 2D scaling relations and derived a general scaling law valid for both 2D and 3D. We then carried out two large series of numerical experiments and verified that the scaling law we have derived indeed applies to the fully non-linear case. It allowed us to extract a constraint for the rise time of magnetic flux tubes that is valid for any solar-like star. We finally introduced this constraint to a delayed dynamo model.
By carrying out simulations of a mean-field, delayed, flux tube/Babcock-Leighton dynamo, we were able to identify a new dynamo regime resulting from the delay. This regime requires delays about an entire cycle and exhibits subequipartition magnetic activity. Revealing this new regime shows that even for long delays the flux tube/Babcock-Leighton dynamo can still deliver non-decaying solutions and remains a good candidate for a wide range of solar-like stars.
Diese Arbeit befasst sich mit der Herstellung und Charakterisierung von thermoresponsiven Filmen auf Goldelektroden durch Fixierung eines bereits synthetisierten thermoresponsiven Polymers. Als Basis für die Entwicklung der responsiven Grenzfläche dienten drei unterschiedliche Copolymere (Polymere I, II und III) aus der Gruppe der thermisch schaltbaren Poly(oligo(ethylenglykol)methacrylate).
Die turbidimetrischen Messungen der Copolymere in Lösungen haben gezeigt, dass der Trübungspunkt vom pH-Wert, der Gegenwart von Salzen sowie von der Ionenstärke der Lösung abhängig ist. Nach der Charakterisierung der Polymere in Lösung wurden Experimente der kovalenten Kopplung der Polymere I bis III an die Oberfläche der Gold-Elektroden durchgeführt. Während bei Polymeren I und II die Ankopplung auf einer Amidverbrückung basierte, wurde bei Polymer III als alternative Methode zur Immobilisierung eine photoinduzierte Anbindung unter gleichzeitiger Vernetzung gewählt. Der Nachweis der erfolgreichen Ankopplung erfolgte bei allen Polymeren elektrochemisch mittels Cyclovoltammetrie und Impedanzspektroskopie in K3/4[Fe(CN)6]-Lösungen. Wie die Ellipsometrie-Messungen zeigten, waren die erhaltenen Polymer-Filme unterschiedlich dick. Die Ankopplung über Amidverbrückung lieferte dünne Filme (10 – 15 nm), während der photovernetzte Film deutlich dicker war (70-80 nm) und die darunter liegende Oberfläche relativ gut isolierte.
Elektrochemische Temperaturexperimente an Polymer-modifizierten Oberflächen in Lösungen in Gegenwart von K3/4[Fe(CN)6] zeigten, dass auch die immobilisierten Polymere I bis III responsives Temperaturverhalten zeigen. Bei Elektroden mit den immobilisierten Polymeren I und II ist der Temperaturverlauf der Parameterwerte diskontinuierlich – ab einem kritischen Punkt (37 °C für Polymer I und 45 °C für Polymer II) wird zunächst langsame Zunahme der Peakströme wird deutlich schneller. Das Temperaturverhalten von Polymer III ist dagegen bis 50 °C kontinuierlich, der Peakstrom sinkt hier durchgehend.
Weiterhin wurde mit den auf Polymeren II und III basierten Elektroden deren Anwendung als responsive Matrix für Bioerkennungsreaktionen untersucht. Es wurde die Ankopplung von kleinen Biorezeptoren, TAG-Peptiden, an Polymer II- und Polymer III-modifizierten Elektroden durchgeführt. Das hydrophile FLAG-TAG-Peptid verändert das Temperaturverhalten des Polymer II-Films unwesentlich, da es die Hydrophilie des Netzwerkes nicht beeinflusst. Weiterhin wurde der Effekt der Ankopplung der ANTI-FLAG-TAG-Antikörper an FLAG-TAG-modifizierte Polymer II-Filme untersucht. Es konnte gezeigt werden, dass die Antikörper spezifisch an FLAG-TAG-modifiziertes Polymer II binden. Es wurde keine unspezifische Anbindung von ANTI-FLAG-TAG an Polymer II beobachtet. Die Temperaturexperimente haben gezeigt, dass die thermische Restrukturierung des Polymer II-FLAG-TAG-Filmes auch nach der Antikörper-Ankopplung noch stattfindet. Der Einfluss der ANTI-FLAG-TAG-Ankopplung ist gering, da der Unterschied in der Hydrophilie zwischen Polymer II und FLAG-TAG bzw. ANTI-FLAG-TAG zu gering ist.
Für die Untersuchungen mit Polymer III-Elektroden wurde neben dem hydrophilen FLAG-TAG-Peptid das deutlich hydrophobere HA-TAG-Peptid ausgewählt. Wie im Falle der Polymer II Elektrode beeinflusst das gekoppelte FLAG-TAG-Peptid das Temperaturverhalten des Polymer III-Netzwerkes nur geringfügig. Die gemessenen Stromwerte sind geringer als bei der Polymer III-Elektrode. Das Temperaturverhalten der FLAG-TAG-Elektrode ähnelt dem der reinen Polymer III-Elektrode – die Stromwerte sinken kontinuierlich bis die Temperatur von ca. 40 °C erreicht ist, bei der ein Plateau beobachtet wird. Offensichtlich verändert FLAG-TAG auch in diesem Fall nicht wesentlich die Hydrophilie des Polymer III-Netzwerkes. Das an Polymer III-Elektroden gekoppelte hydrophobe HA-TAG-Peptid beeinflusst dagegen im starken Maße den Quellzustand des Netzwerkes. Die Ströme für die HA-TAG-Elektroden sind deutlich geringer als die für die FLAG-TAG-Polymer III-Elektroden, was auf geringeren Wassergehalt und dickeren Film zurückzuführen ist. Bereits ab 30 °C erfolgt der Anstieg von Stromwerten, der bei Polymer III- bzw. bei Polymer III-FLAG-TAG-Elektroden nicht beobachtet werden kann. Das gekoppelte hydrophobe HA-TAG-Peptid verdrängt Wasser aus dem Polymer III-Netzwerk, was in der Stauchung des Films bereits bei Raumtemperatur resultiert. Dies führt dazu, dass der Film im Laufe des Temperaturanstieges kaum noch komprimiert. Die Stromwerte steigen in diesem Fall entsprechend des Anstiegs der temperaturabhängigen Diffusion des Redoxpaares. Diese Untersuchungen zeigen, dass das HA-TAG-Peptid als Ankermolekül deutlich besser für eine potentielle Verwendung der Polymer III-Filme für sensorische Zwecke geeignet ist, da es sich deutlich in der Hydrophilie von Polymer III unterscheidet.
In the past, floods were basically managed by flood control mechanisms. The focus was set on the reduction of flood hazard. The potential consequences were of minor interest. Nowadays river flooding is increasingly seen from the risk perspective, including possible consequences. Moreover, the large-scale picture of flood risk became increasingly important for disaster management planning, national risk developments and the (re-) insurance industry. Therefore, it is widely accepted that risk-orientated flood management ap-proaches at the basin-scale are needed. However, large-scale flood risk assessment methods for areas of several 10,000 km² are still in early stages. Traditional flood risk assessments are performed reach wise, assuming constant probabilities for the entire reach or basin. This might be helpful on a local basis, but where large-scale patterns are important this approach is of limited use. Assuming a T-year flood (e.g. 100 years) for the entire river network is unrealistic and would lead to an overestimation of flood risk at the large scale. Due to the lack of damage data, additionally, the probability of peak discharge or rainfall is usually used as proxy for damage probability to derive flood risk. With a continuous and long term simulation of the entire flood risk chain, the spatial variability of probabilities could be consider and flood risk could be directly derived from damage data in a consistent way.
The objective of this study is the development and application of a full flood risk chain, appropriate for the large scale and based on long term and continuous simulation. The novel approach of ‘derived flood risk based on continuous simulations’ is introduced, where the synthetic discharge time series is used as input into flood impact models and flood risk is directly derived from the resulting synthetic damage time series.
The bottleneck at this scale is the hydrodynamic simu-lation. To find suitable hydrodynamic approaches for the large-scale a benchmark study with simplified 2D hydrodynamic models was performed. A raster-based approach with inertia formulation and a relatively high resolution of 100 m in combination with a fast 1D channel routing model was chosen.
To investigate the suitability of the continuous simulation of a full flood risk chain for the large scale, all model parts were integrated into a new framework, the Regional Flood Model (RFM). RFM consists of the hydrological model SWIM, a 1D hydrodynamic river network model, a 2D raster based inundation model and the flood loss model FELMOps+r. Subsequently, the model chain was applied to the Elbe catchment, one of the largest catchments in Germany. For the proof-of-concept, a continuous simulation was per-formed for the period of 1990-2003. Results were evaluated / validated as far as possible with available observed data in this period. Although each model part introduced its own uncertainties, results and runtime were generally found to be adequate for the purpose of continuous simulation at the large catchment scale.
Finally, RFM was applied to a meso-scale catchment in the east of Germany to firstly perform a flood risk assessment with the novel approach of ‘derived flood risk assessment based on continuous simulations’. Therefore, RFM was driven by long term synthetic meteorological input data generated by a weather generator. Thereby, a virtual time series of climate data of 100 x 100 years was generated and served as input to RFM providing subsequent 100 x 100 years of spatially consistent river discharge series, inundation patterns and damage values. On this basis, flood risk curves and expected annual damage could be derived directly from damage data, providing a large-scale picture of flood risk. In contrast to traditional flood risk analysis, where homogenous return periods are assumed for the entire basin, the presented approach provides a coherent large-scale picture of flood risk. The spatial variability of occurrence probability is respected. Additionally, data and methods are consistent. Catchment and floodplain processes are repre-sented in a holistic way. Antecedent catchment conditions are implicitly taken into account, as well as physical processes like storage effects, flood attenuation or channel–floodplain interactions and related damage influencing effects. Finally, the simulation of a virtual period of 100 x 100 years and consequently large data set on flood loss events enabled the calculation of flood risk directly from damage distributions. Problems associated with the transfer of probabilities in rainfall or peak runoff to probabilities in damage, as often used in traditional approaches, are bypassed.
RFM and the ‘derived flood risk approach based on continuous simulations’ has the potential to provide flood risk statements for national planning, re-insurance aspects or other questions where spatially consistent, large-scale assessments are required.