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Increasing evidence shows that anthropogenic climate change is affecting biodiversity. Reducing or stabilizing greenhouse gas emissions may slow global warming, but past emissions will continue to contribute to further unavoidable warming for more than a century. With obvious signs of difficulties in achieving effective mitigation worldwide in the short term at least, sound scientific predictions of future impacts on biodiversity will be required to guide conservation planning and adaptation. This is especially true in Mediterranean type ecosystems that are projected to be among the most significantly affected by anthropogenic climate change, and show the highest levels of confidence in rainfall projections. Multiple methods are available for projecting the consequences of climate change on the main unit of interest - the species - with each method having strengths and weaknesses. Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly applied for forecasting climate change impacts on species geographic ranges. Aggregation of models for different species allows inferences of impacts on biodiversity, though excluding the effects of species interactions. The modelling approach is based on several further assumptions and projections and should be treated cautiously. In the absence of comparable approaches that address large numbers of species, SDMs remain valuable in estimating the vulnerability of species. In this review we discuss the application of SDMs in predicting the impacts of climate change on biodiversity with special reference to the species-rich South West Australian Floristic Region and South African Cape Floristic Region. We discuss the advantages and challenges in applying SDMs in biodiverse regions with high levels of endemicity, and how a similar biogeographical history in both regions may assist us in understanding their vulnerability to climate change. We suggest how the process of predicting the impacts of climate change on biodiversity with SDMs can be improved and emphasize the role of field monitoring and experiments in validating the predictions of SDMs.
Interestingly, relationships between demographic parameters and occurrence probability did not vary substantially across degrees of shade tolerance and regions. Although they were influenced by the uncertainty in the estimation of the demographic parameters, we found that r was generally negatively correlated with P-occ, while N, and for most regions K, was generally positively correlated with P-occ. Thus, in temperate forest trees the regions of highest occurrence probability are those with high densities but slow intrinsic population growth rates. The uncertain relationships between demography and occurrence probability suggests caution when linking species distribution and demographic models.
Environmental heterogeneity is a major determinant of plant population dynamics. In semi-arid Kalahari savannas, heterogeneity is created by savanna structure, i.e. by the spatial arrangement and temporal dynamics of woody plant and open grassland microsites. We formulate a conceptual model describing the effects of savanna dynamics on the population dynamics of the animal-dispersed shrub Grewia flava. From empirical results we derive model rules describing effects of savanna structure on several processes in Grewia's life cycle. By formulating the model, we summarise existing information on Grewia demography and identify gaps in this knowledge. Despite a number of such gaps, the model can be used to make certain quantitative predictions. As an example, we apply the model to investigate the role of seed dispersal in Grewia encroachment on rangelands. Model results show that cattle promote encroachment by depositing substantial numbers of seeds in open areas, where Grewia is otherwise dispersal-limited. Finally, we draw some general conclusions about Grewia's life history and population dynamics. Under natural conditions, concentrated seed deposition under woody plants appears to be a key process causing the observed association between Grewia and other woody plants. Furthermore, low rates of recruitment and high adult survival result in slow-motion dynamics of Grewia populations. As a consequence, Grewia populations interact with savanna dynamics on long temporal and short to intermediate spatial scales.
Ecologists increasingly use spatial statistics to study vegetation patterns. Mostly, however, these techniques are applied in a purely descriptive fashion without a priori statements on the pattern characteristics expected. We formulated such a priori predictions in a study of spatial pattern in a semi-arid Karoo shrubland, South Africa. Both seed dispersal and root competition have been discussed as processes shaping the spatial structure of this community. If either of the two processes dominates pattern formation, patterns within and between shrub functional groups are expected to show distinct deviations from null models. We predicted the type and scale of these deviations and compared predicted to observed pattern characteristics. As predicted by the seed dispersal hypothesis, small-scale co-occurrence within and between groups of colonisers and successors was increased as compared to complete spatially random arrangement of shrubs. The root competition predictions, however, were not met as shrubs of similar rooting depth co- occurred more frequently than expected under random shrub arrangement. Since the distribution of rooting groups to the given shrub locations also failed to match the root competition predictions, there was little evidence for dominance of root competition in pattern formation. Although other processes may contribute to small-scale plant co-occurrence, the sufficient and most parsimonious explanation for the observed pattern is that its formation was dominated by seed dispersal. To characterise point patterns we applied both cumulative (uni- and bivariate K-function) and local (pair- and mark-correlation function) techniques. Based on our results we recommend that future studies of vegetation patterns include local characteristics as they independently describe a pattern at different scales and can be easily related to processes changing with interplant distance in a predictable fashion.
1 Secondary seed dispersal by wind, the wind-driven movement of seeds along the ground surface, is an important dispersal mechanism for plant species in a range of environments. 2 We formulate a mechanistic model that describes how secondary dispersal by wind is affected by seed traits, wind conditions and obstacles to seed movement. The model simulates the movement paths of individual seeds and can be fully specified using independently measured parameters. 3 We develop an explicit version of the model that uses a spatially explicit representation of obstacle patterns, and also an aggregated version that uses probability distributions to model seed retention at obstacles and seed movement between obstacles. The aggregated version is computationally efficient and therefore suited to large-scale simulations. It provides a very good approximation of the explicit version (R-2 > 0.99) if initial seed positions vary randomly relative to the obstacle pattern. 4 To validate the model, we conducted a field experiment in which we released seeds of seven South African Proteaceae species that differ in seed size and morphology into an arena in which we systematically varied obstacle patterns. When parameterized with maximum likelihood estimates obtained from independent measurements, the explicit model version explained 70-77% of the observed variation in the proportion of seeds dispersed over 25 m and 67- 69% of the observed variation in the direction of seed dispersal. 5 The model tended to underestimate dispersal rates, possibly due to the omission of turbulence from the model, although this could also be explained by imprecise estimation of one model parameter (the aerodynamic roughness length). 6 Our analysis of the aggregated model predicts a unimodal relationship between the distance of secondary dispersal by wind and seed size. The model can also be used to identify species with the potential for long-distance seed transport by secondary wind dispersal. 7 The validated model expands the domain of mechanistic dispersal models, contributes to a functional understanding of seed dispersal, and provides a tool for predicting the distances that seeds move
The hypothesis that females of socially monogamous species obtain indirect benefits (good or compatible genes) from extra-pair mating behaviour has received enormous attention but much less generally accepted support. Here we ask whether selection for adult survival and fecundity or sexual selection contribute to indirect selection of the extra- pair mating behaviour in socially monogamous coal tits (Periparus ater). We tracked locally recruited individuals with known paternity status through their lives predicting that the extra-pair offspring (EPO) would outperform the within- pair offspring (WPO). No differences between the WPO and EPO recruits were detected in lifespan or age of first reproduction. However, the male WPO had a higher lifetime number of broods and higher lifetime number of social offspring compared with male EPO recruits, while no such differences were evident for female recruits. Male EPO recruits did not compensate for their lower social reproductive success by higher fertilization success within their social pair bonds. Thus, our results do not support the idea that enhanced adult survival, fecundity or within-pair fertilization success are manifestations of the genetic benefits of extra-pair matings. But we emphasize that a crucial fitness component, the extra-pair fertilization success of male recruits, has yet to be taken into account to fully appreciate the fitness consequences of extra-pair matings.
Avian extrapair mating systems provide an interesting model to assess the role of genetic benefits in the evolution of female multiple mating behavior, as potentially confounding nongenetic benefits of extrapair mate choice are seen to be of minor importance. Genetic benefit models of extrapair mating behavior predict that females engage in extrapair copulations with males of higher genetic quality compared to their social mates, thereby improving offspring reproductive value. The most straightforward test of such good genes models of extrapair mating implies pail-wise comparisons of maternal half-siblings raised in the same environment, which permits direct assessment of Paternal genetic effects oil offspring traits. But genetic benefits of mate choice may be difficult to detect. Furthermore, the extent of genetic benefits (in terms of increased offspring viability or fecundity) may depend oil the environmental context Such that the proposed differences between extrapair offspring (EPO) and within-pair offspring (WPO) only appear under comparatively poor environmental conditions. We tested the hypothesis that genetic benefits of female extrapair mate choice are context dependent by analyzing offspring fitness-related traits in the coal tit (Parus ater) in relation to seasonal variation in environmental conditions. Paternal genetic effects on offspring fitness were context dependent. as shown by a significant interaction effect of differential paternal genetic contribution and offspring hatching date. EPO showed a higher local recruitment probability than their maternal half-siblings if born comparatively late in the season (i.e.. when overall performance had significantly declined), while WPO performed better early in the season. The same general pattern of context dependence was evident when using the number of grandchildren born to a cuckolding female via her female WPO or EPO progeny as the respective fitness measure. However, we were unable to demonstrate that cuckolding females obtained a general genetic fitness benefit from extrapair fertilizations in terms of offspring viability or fecundity. Thus, another type of benefit Could be responsible for maintaining female extrapair mating preferences in the study population. Our results suggest that more than a single selective pressure may have shaped the evolution of female extrapair mating behavior in socially monogamous passerines.