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We introduce non-Markovian SIR epidemic spreading model inspired by the characteristics of the COVID-19, by considering discrete-and continuous-time versions. The distributions of infection intensity and recovery period may take an arbitrary form. By taking corresponding choice of these functions, it is shown that the model reduces to the classical Markovian case. The epidemic threshold is analytically determined for arbitrary functions of infectivity and recovery and verified numerically. The relevance of the model is shown by modeling the first wave of the epidemic in Italy, Spain and the UK, in the spring, 2020.
Abstract
The emerging diffusive dynamics in many complex systems show a characteristic crossover behaviour from anomalous to normal diffusion which is otherwise fitted by two independent power-laws. A prominent example for a subdiffusive–diffusive crossover are viscoelastic systems such as lipid bilayer membranes, while superdiffusive–diffusive crossovers occur in systems of actively moving biological cells. We here consider the general dynamics of a stochastic particle driven by so-called tempered fractional Gaussian noise, that is noise with Gaussian amplitude and power-law correlations, which are cut off at some mesoscopic time scale. Concretely we consider such noise with built-in exponential or power-law tempering, driving an overdamped Langevin equation (fractional Brownian motion) and fractional Langevin equation motion. We derive explicit expressions for the mean squared displacement and correlation functions, including different shapes of the crossover behaviour depending on the concrete tempering, and discuss the physical meaning of the tempering. In the case of power-law tempering we also find a crossover behaviour from faster to slower superdiffusion and slower to faster subdiffusion. As a direct application of our model we demonstrate that the obtained dynamics quantitatively describes the subdiffusion–diffusion and subdiffusion–subdiffusion crossover in lipid bilayer systems. We also show that a model of tempered fractional Brownian motion recently proposed by Sabzikar and Meerschaert leads to physically very different behaviour with a seemingly paradoxical ballistic long time scaling.
Abstract
The emerging diffusive dynamics in many complex systems show a characteristic crossover behaviour from anomalous to normal diffusion which is otherwise fitted by two independent power-laws. A prominent example for a subdiffusive–diffusive crossover are viscoelastic systems such as lipid bilayer membranes, while superdiffusive–diffusive crossovers occur in systems of actively moving biological cells. We here consider the general dynamics of a stochastic particle driven by so-called tempered fractional Gaussian noise, that is noise with Gaussian amplitude and power-law correlations, which are cut off at some mesoscopic time scale. Concretely we consider such noise with built-in exponential or power-law tempering, driving an overdamped Langevin equation (fractional Brownian motion) and fractional Langevin equation motion. We derive explicit expressions for the mean squared displacement and correlation functions, including different shapes of the crossover behaviour depending on the concrete tempering, and discuss the physical meaning of the tempering. In the case of power-law tempering we also find a crossover behaviour from faster to slower superdiffusion and slower to faster subdiffusion. As a direct application of our model we demonstrate that the obtained dynamics quantitatively describes the subdiffusion–diffusion and subdiffusion–subdiffusion crossover in lipid bilayer systems. We also show that a model of tempered fractional Brownian motion recently proposed by Sabzikar and Meerschaert leads to physically very different behaviour with a seemingly paradoxical ballistic long time scaling.
We study the first-arrival (first-hitting) dynamics and efficiency of a one-dimensional random search model performing asymmetric Levy flights by leveraging the Fokker-Planck equation with a delta-sink and an asymmetric space-fractional derivative operator with stable index alpha and asymmetry (skewness) parameter beta.
We find exact analytical results for the probability density of first-arrival times and the search efficiency, and we analyse their behaviour within the limits of short and long times.
We find that when the starting point of the searcher is to the right of the target, random search by Brownian motion is more efficient than Levy flights with beta <= 0 (with a rightward bias) for short initial distances, while for beta>0 (with a leftward bias) Levy flights with alpha -> 1 are more efficient.
When increasing the initial distance of the searcher to the target, Levy flight search (except for alpha=1 with beta=0) is more efficient than the Brownian search. Moreover, the asymmetry in jumps leads to essentially higher efficiency of the Levy search compared to symmetric Levy flights at both short and long distances, and the effect is more pronounced for stable indices alpha close to unity.
The time-dependent Schrödinger equation in non-integer dimensions for constrained quantum motion
(2020)
We propose a theoretical model, based on a generalized Schroedinger equation, to study the behavior of a constrained quantum system in non-integer, lower than two-dimensional space. The non-integer dimensional space is formed as a product space X x Y, comprising x-coordinate with a Hausdorff measure of dimension alpha(1) = D -1 (1 < D < 2) and y-coordinate with the Lebesgue measure of dimension of length (alpha(2) = 1). Geometric constraints are set at y = 0. Two different approaches to find the Green's function are employed, both giving the same form in terms of the Fox H-function. For D = 2, the solution for two-dimensional quantum motion on a comb is recovered. (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
The application of the fractional calculus in the mathematical modelling of relaxation processes in complex heterogeneous media has attracted a considerable amount of interest lately.
The reason for this is the successful implementation of fractional stochastic and kinetic equations in the studies of non-Debye relaxation.
In this work, we consider the rotational diffusion equation with a generalised memory kernel in the context of dielectric relaxation processes in a medium composed of polar molecules. We give an overview of existing models on non-exponential relaxation and introduce an exponential resetting dynamic in the corresponding process.
The autocorrelation function and complex susceptibility are analysed in detail.
We show that stochastic resetting leads to a saturation of the autocorrelation function to a constant value, in contrast to the case without resetting, for which it decays to zero. The behaviour of the autocorrelation function, as well as the complex susceptibility in the presence of resetting, confirms that the dielectric relaxation dynamics can be tuned by an appropriate choice of the resetting rate.
The presented results are general and flexible, and they will be of interest for the theoretical description of non-trivial relaxation dynamics in heterogeneous systems composed of polar molecules.
We consider anomalous stochastic processes based on the renewal continuous time random walk model with different forms for the probability density of waiting times between individual jumps. In the corresponding continuum limit we derive the generalized diffusion and Fokker-Planck-Smoluchowski equations with the corresponding memory kernels. We calculate the qth order moments in the unbiased and biased cases, and demonstrate that the generalized Einstein relation for the considered dynamics remains valid. The relaxation of modes in the case of an external harmonic potential and the convergence of the mean squared displacement to the thermal plateau are analyzed.
We study distributed-order time fractional diffusion equations characterized by multifractal memory kernels, in contrast to the simple power-law kernel of common time fractional diffusion equations. Based on the physical approach to anomalous diffusion provided by the seminal Scher-Montroll-Weiss continuous time random walk, we analyze both natural and modified-form distributed-order time fractional diffusion equations and compare the two approaches. The mean squared displacement is obtained and its limiting behavior analyzed. We derive the connection between the Wiener process, described by the conventional Langevin equation and the dynamics encoded by the distributed-order time fractional diffusion equation in terms of a generalized subordination of time. A detailed analysis of the multifractal properties of distributed-order diffusion equations is provided.
We study a heterogeneous diffusion process (HDP) with position-dependent diffusion coefficient and Poissonian stochastic resetting.
We find exact results for the mean squared displacement and the probability density function. The nonequilibrium steady state reached in the long time limit is studied.
We also analyse the transition to the non-equilibrium steady state by finding the large deviation function.
We found that similarly to the case of the normal diffusion process where the diffusion length grows like t (1/2) while the length scale xi(t) of the inner core region of the nonequilibrium steady state grows linearly with time t, in the HDP with diffusion length increasing like t ( p/2) the length scale xi(t) grows like t ( p ).
The obtained results are verified by numerical solutions of the corresponding Langevin equation.
We consider a generalized diffusion equation in two dimensions for modeling diffusion on a comb-like structures. We analyze the probability distribution functions and we derive the mean squared displacement in x and y directions. Different forms of the memory kernels (Dirac delta, power-law, and distributed order) are considered. It is shown that anomalous diffusion may occur along both x and y directions. Ultraslow diffusion and some more general diffusive processes are observed as well. We give the corresponding continuous time random walk model for the considered two dimensional diffusion-like equation on a comb, and we derive the probability distribution functions which subordinate the process governed by this equation to the Wiener process.