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Many of the volcanic plateau margins of the eastern, formerly glaciated, foreland of the Patagonian Andes are undermined by giant landslides (>= 10(8) m(3)). One cluster of such landslides extends along the margin of the Meseta del Lago Buenos Aires (MLBA) plateau that is formed mainly by Neogene-Quaternary basalts. The dry climate is at odds with numerous >2-km long earthflows nested within older and larger compound landslides. We present a hydrological analysis, a detailed geomorphic map, interpretations of exposed landslide interiors, and radiocarbon dating of the El Mirador landslide, which is one of the largest and morphologically most representative landslide. We find that the presence of lakes on top of the plateau, causing low infiltration rates, correlates negatively with the abundance of earthflows on compound landslides along the plateau margins. Field outcrops show that the pattern of compound landslides and earthflows is likely controlled by groundwater seepage at the contact between the basalts and underlying soft Miocene molasse. Numerous peat bogs store water and sediment and are more abundant in earthflow-affected areas than in their contributing catchment areas. <br /> Radiocarbon dates indicate that these earthflows displaced metre-thick layers of peat in the late Holocene (<2.5 ka). We conclude that earthflows of the MLBA plateau might be promising proxies of past hydroclimatic conditions in the Patagonian foreland, if strong earthquakes or gradual crustal stress changes due to glacioisostatic rebound can be ruled out.
The Coulomb failure stress (CFS) criterion is the most commonly used method for predicting spatial distributions of aftershocks following large earthquakes. However, large uncertainties are always associated with the calculation of Coulomb stress change. The uncertainties mainly arise due to nonunique slip inversions and unknown receiver faults; especially for the latter, results are highly dependent on the choice of the assumed receiver mechanism. Based on binary tests (aftershocks yes/no), recent studies suggest that alternative stress quantities, a distance-slip probabilistic model as well as deep neural network (DNN) approaches, all are superior to CFS with predefined receiver mechanism. To challenge this conclusion, which might have large implications, we use 289 slip inversions from SRCMOD database to calculate more realistic CFS values for a layered half-space and variable receiver mechanisms. We also analyze the effect of the magnitude cutoff, grid size variation, and aftershock duration to verify the use of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis for the ranking of stress metrics. The observations suggest that introducing a layered half-space does not improve the stress maps and ROC curves. However, results significantly improve for larger aftershocks and shorter time periods but without changing the ranking. We also go beyond binary testing and apply alternative statistics to test the ability to estimate aftershock numbers, which confirm that simple stress metrics perform better than the classic Coulomb failure stress calculations and are also better than the distance-slip probabilistic model.
The 2.7-2.9 Ma Ertsberg East Skarn System (EESS) is a world-class Cu-Au skarn that formed within and adjacent to an intrusion within a paleodepth of 0.5 km and > 2.5 km. Its economic mineralisation developed by sustained reaction of magmatic fluid with contact metamorphosed siliciclastic and carbonate rocks at the margin of the adjacent Ertsberg quartz monzodiorite intrusion. Based on high-resolution mineral mapping, chemical analysis and thermodynamic calculations, the multistage formation processes of the exoskarn components of the EESS are examined in the context of changing pressure, temperature, fluid composition and fluid phase. We show that contact metamorphism of dolomitic sediments occurred at 51 +/- 5 MPa, between 700 degrees C and 800 degrees C and in the presence of a H2O-CO2-fluid containing similar to 10 to similar to 70 mol% CO2. This prograde metamorphism formed a forsterite + diopside + calcite + phlogopite + spinel assemblage. Such forsterite-dominated skarns account for similar to 55 vol% of the EESS exoskarns. Rare pargasite (previously unrecognized in this deposit) formed locally in the metamorphosed carbonate sequence where the protolith was composed of supratidal evaporites with dolomitic carbonate and interlayered calc-silicate rocks. The subsequent flux of a lower pressure magmatic gas containing SO2(g) caused sulphate metasomatism. This high temperature gas alteration of the metamorphic assemblage also caused skarn Cu-Fe-sulphide mineralisation. The influx of a SO2 gas through fracture permeability occurred at a temperature between similar to 600 and 700 degrees C and caused calcite to be replaced by anhydrite, with the coupled release of H2S(g). This in-situ release of H2S(g) scavenged trace Cu from the gas phase to deposit Cu-Fe-sulphides, which make the economic value of the distinct. We demonstrate that the formation of metal sulphides within forsterite skarns of the Ertsberg East Skarn System required a minimum flux of similar to 1,050 Mt SO2(g) and show that volcanic degassing may have occurred over a time span of similar to 3,900 years. As the system waned, the ambient fluid resulted in partial retrograde serpentinization of olivine and diopside without carbonation, and at temperatures sufficiently high to preserve anhydrite.
High-pressure experiments were performed to investigate the effectiveness, rate and mechanism of carbonation of serpentinites by a carbon-saturated COH fluid at 1.5-2.5 GPa and 375-700 degrees C. This allows a better understanding of the fate and redistribution of slab-derived carbonic fluids when they react with the partially hydrated mantle within and above the subducting slab under pressure and temperature conditions corresponding to the forearc mantle. Interactions between carbon-saturated CO2-H2O-CH4 fluids and serpentinite were investigated using natural serpentinite cylinders with natural grain sizes and shapes in piston-cylinder experiments. The volatile composition of post-run fluids was quantified by gas chromatography. Solid phases were examined by Raman spectroscopy, electron microscopy and laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. Textures, porosity and phase abundances of recovered rock cores were visualized and quantified by three-dimensional, high-resolution computed tomography. We find that carbonation of serpentinites is efficient at sequestering CO2 from the interacting fluid into newly formed magnesite. Time-series experiments demonstrate that carbonation is completed within similar to 96 h at 2 GPa and 600 degrees C. With decreasing CO2, aq antigorite is replaced first by magnesite + quartz followed by magnesite + talc + chlorite in distinct, metasomatic fronts. Above antigorite stability magnesite + enstatite + talc + chlorite occur additionally. The formation of fluid-permeable reaction zones enhances the reaction rate and efficiency of carbonation. Carbonation probably occurs via an interface-coupled replacement process, whereby interconnected porosity is present within reaction zones after the experiment. Consequently, carbonation of serpentinites is self-promoting and efficient even if fluid flow is channelized into veins. We conclude that significant amounts of carbonates may accumulate, over time, in the hydrated forearc mantle.
The Cluster mission has produced a large data set of electron flux measurements in the Earth's magnetosphere since its launch in late 2000. Electron fluxes are measured using Research with Adaptive Particle Imaging Detector (RAPID)/Imaging Electron Spectrometer (IES) detector as a function of energy, pitch angle, spacecraft position, and time. However, no adiabatic invariants have been calculated for Cluster so far. In this paper we present a step-by-step guide to calculations of adiabatic invariants and conversion of the electron flux to phase space density (PSD) in these coordinates. The electron flux is measured in two RAPID/IES energy channels providing pitch angle distribution at energies 39.2-50.5 and 68.1-94.5 keV in nominal mode since 2004. A fitting method allows to expand the conversion of the differential fluxes to the range from 40 to 150 keV. Best data coverage for phase space density in adiabatic invariant coordinates can be obtained for values of second adiabatic invariant, K, similar to 10(2), and values of the first adiabatic invariant mu in the range approximate to 5-20 MeV/G. Furthermore, we describe the production of a new data product "LSTAR," equivalent to the third adiabatic invariant, available through the Cluster Science Archive for years 2001-2018 with 1-min resolution. The produced data set adds to the availability of observations in Earth's radiation belts region and can be used for long-term statistical purposes.
High Mountain Asia (HMA) is dependent upon both the amount and timing of snow and glacier meltwater. Previous model studies and coarse resolution (0.25° × 0.25°, ∼25 km × 25 km) passive microwave assessments of trends in the volume and timing of snowfall, snowmelt, and glacier melt in HMA have identified key spatial and seasonal heterogeneities in the response of snow to changes in regional climate. Here we use recently developed, continuous, internally consistent, and high-resolution passive microwave data (3.125 km × 3.125 km, 1987–2016) from the special sensor microwave imager instrument family to refine and extend previous estimates of changes in the snow regime of HMA. We find an overall decline in snow volume across HMA; however, there exist spatially contiguous regions of increasing snow volume—particularly during the winter season in the Pamir, Karakoram, Hindu Kush, and Kunlun Shan. Detailed analysis of changes in snow-volume trends through time reveal a large step change from negative trends during the period 1987–1997, to much more positive trends across large regions of HMA during the periods 1997–2007 and 2007–2016. We also find that changes in high percentile monthly snow-water volume exhibit steeper trends than changes in low percentile snow-water volume, which suggests a reduction in the frequency of high snow-water volumes in much of HMA. Regions with positive snow-water storage trends generally correspond to regions of positive glacier mass balances.
The magnetic equator in the Brazilian region has moved over 1,100 km northward since 1957, passing the geomagnetic observatory Tatuoca (TTB), in northern Brazil, around 2013. We recovered and processed TTB hourly mean values of the geomagnetic field horizontal (H) component from 1957 until 2019, allowing the investigation of long-term changes in the daily variation due to the influence of secular variation, solar activity, season, and lunar phase. The H day-to-day variability and the occurrence of the counter electrojet at TTB were also investigated. Until the 1990s, ionospheric solar quiet currents dominated the quiet-time daily variation at TTB. After 2000, the magnitude of the daily variation became appreciably greater due to the equatorial electrojet (EEJ) contribution. The H seasonal and day-to-day variability increased as the magnetic equator approached, but their amplitudes normalized to the average daily variation remained at similar levels. Meanwhile, the amplitude of the lunar variation, normalized in the same way, increased from 5% to 12%. Within the EEJ region, the occurrence rate of the morning counter electrojet (MCEJ) increased with proximity to the magnetic equator, while the afternoon counter electrojet (ACEJ) did not. EEJ currents derived from CHAMP and Swarm satellite data revealed that the MCEJ rate varies with magnetic latitude within the EEJ region while the ACEJ rate is largely constant. Simulations with the Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model based on different geomagnetic main field configurations suggest that long-term changes in the geomagnetic daily variation at TTB can be attributed to the main field secular variation.
Accelerograms are the primary source for characterizing strong ground motion. It is therefore of paramount interest to have high-quality recordings free from any nonphysical contamination. Frequently, accelerograms are affected by baseline jumps and drifts, either related to the instrument and/or a major earthquake. In this work, I propose a correction method for these undesired baseline drifts based on segmented linear least squares. The algorithm operates on the integrated waveforms and combines all three instrument components to estimate a model that modifies the baseline to be at zero continuously. The procedure consists of two steps: first a suite of models with variable numbers of discontinuities is derived for all three instrument components. During this process, the number of discontinuities is reduced in a parsimonious way, for example, two very close discontinuities are merged into a single one. In the second step, the optimal model is selected on the basis of the Bayesian information criterion. I exemplify the application on synthetic waveforms with known discontinuities and on observed waveforms from a unified strong-motion database of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED, Japan) networks for the major events of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes. After the baseline jump correction, the waveforms are furthermore corrected for displacement according to Wang et al.(2011). The resulting displacements are comparable to the Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar-derived displacement estimates for the Kumamoto earthquake sequence.
Earthquakes often rupture across more than one fault segment. If such rupture segmentation occurs on a significant scale, a simple point-source or one-fault model may not represent the rupture process well. As a consequence earthquake characteristics inferred, based on one-source assumptions, may become systematically wrong. This might have effects on follow-up analyses, for example regional stress field inversions and seismic hazard assessments. While rupture segmentation is evident for most M-w > 7 earthquakes, also smaller ones with 5.5 < M-w < 7 can be segmented. We investigate the sensitivity of globally available data sets to rupture segmentation and their resolution to reliably estimate the mechanisms in presence of segmentation. We focus on the sensitivity of InSAR (Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar) data in the static near-field and seismic waveforms in the far-field of the rupture and carry out non-linear and Bayesian optimizations of single-source and two-sources kinematic models (double-couple point sources and finite, rectangular sources) using InSAR and teleseismic waveforms separately. Our case studies comprises of four M-w 6-7 earthquakes: the 2009 L'Aquila and 2016 Amatrice (Italy) and the 2005 and 2008 Zhongba (Tibet) earthquakes. We contrast the data misfits of different source complexity by using the Akaike informational criterion (AIC). We find that the AIC method is well suited for data-driven inferences on significant rupture segmentation for the given data sets. This is based on our observation that an AIC-stated significant improvement of data fit for two-segment models over one-segment models correlates with significantly different mechanisms of the two source segments and their average compared to the single-segment mechanism. We attribute these modelled differences to a sufficient sensitivity of the data to resolve rupture segmentation. Our results show that near-field data are generally more sensitive to rupture segmentation of shallow earthquakes than far-field data but that also teleseismic data can resolve rupture segmentation in the studied magnitude range. We further conclude that a significant difference in the modelled source mechanisms for different segmentations shows that an appropriate choice of model segmentation matters for a robust estimation of source mechanisms. It reduces systematic biases and trade-off and thereby improves the knowledge on the rupture. Our study presents a strategy and method to detect significant rupture segmentation such that an appropriate model complexity can be used in the source mechanism inference. A similar, systematic investigation of earthquakes in the range of M-w 5.5-7 could provide important hazard-relevant statistics on rupture segmentation. In these cases single-source models introduce a systematic bias. Consideration of rupture segmentation therefore matters for a robust estimation of source mechanisms of the studied earthquakes.
AM(W)= 5.1 earthquake on January 21st, 2016 marked the beginning of a significant seismic sequence in the southern Alboran Sea, culminating in aM(W)= 6.3 earthquake on January 25th, and continuing with further moderate magnitude earthquakes until March. We use data from 35 seismic broadband stations in Spain, Morocco and Portugal to relocate the seismicity, estimate seismic moment tensors, and isolate regional apparent source time functions for the main earthquake. Relocation and regional moment tensor inversion consistently yield very shallow depths for the majority of events. We obtain 50 moment tensors for the sequence, showing a mixture of strike-slip faulting for the foreshock and the main event and reverse faulting for the major aftershocks. The leading role of reverse focal mechanisms among the aftershocks may be explained by the geometry of the fault network. The mainshock nucleates at a bend along the left-lateral Al-Idrisi fault, introducing local transpression within the transtensional Alboran Basin. The shallow depths of the 2016 Alboran Sea earthquakes may favor slip-partitioning on the involved faults. Apparent source durations for the main event suggest a similar to 21 km long, asymmetric rupture that propagates primarily toward NE into the restraining fault segment, with fast rupture speed of similar to 3.0 km/s. Consistently, the inversion for laterally variable fault displacement situates the main slip in the restraining segment. The partitioning into strike-slip rupture and dip-slip aftershocks confirms a non-optimal orientation of this segment, and suggests that the 2016 event settled a slip deficit from previous ruptures that could not propagate into the stronger restraining segment.