Refine
Has Fulltext
- yes (70)
Year of publication
- 2015 (70) (remove)
Language
- English (70)
Keywords
- climate-change (4)
- New-Zealand (3)
- carbon (3)
- evolution (3)
- model (3)
- variability (3)
- Escherichia coli (2)
- Laptev Sea (2)
- Siberia (2)
- agriculture (2)
Institute
- Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät (70) (remove)
Towards the assimilation of tree-ring-width records using ensemble Kalman filtering techniques
(2015)
This paper investigates the applicability of the Vaganov–Shashkin–Lite (VSL) forward model for tree-ring-width chronologies as observation operator within a proxy data assimilation (DA) setting. Based on the principle of limiting factors, VSL combines temperature and moisture time series in a nonlinear fashion to obtain simulated TRW chronologies. When used as observation operator, this modelling approach implies three compounding, challenging features: (1) time averaging, (2) “switching recording” of 2 variables and (3) bounded response windows leading to “thresholded response”. We generate pseudo-TRW observations from a chaotic 2-scale dynamical system, used as a cartoon of the atmosphere-land system, and attempt to assimilate them via ensemble Kalman filtering techniques. Results within our simplified setting reveal that VSL’s nonlinearities may lead to considerable loss of assimilation skill, as compared to the utilization of a time-averaged (TA) linear observation operator. In order to understand this undesired effect, we embed VSL’s formulation into the framework of fuzzy logic (FL) theory, which thereby exposes multiple representations of the principle of limiting factors. DA experiments employing three alternative growth rate functions disclose a strong link between the lack of smoothness of the growth rate function and the loss of optimality in the estimate of the TA state. Accordingly, VSL’s performance as observation operator can be enhanced by resorting to smoother FL representations of the principle of limiting factors. This finding fosters new interpretations of tree-ring-growth limitation processes.
Central Asia is located at the confluence of large-scale atmospheric circulation systems. It is thus likely to be highly susceptible to changes in the dynamics of those systems; however, little is still known about the regional paleoclimate history. Here we present carbon and hydrogen isotopic compositions of n-alkanoic acids from a late Holocene sediment core from Lake Karakuli (eastern Pamir, Xinjiang Province, China). Instrumental evidence and isotopeenabled climate model experiments with the Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique Zoom model version 4 (LMDZ4) demonstrate that delta D values of precipitation in the region are influenced by both temperature and precipitation amount. We find that these parameters are inversely correlated on an annual scale, i.e., the climate has varied between relatively cool and wet and more warm and dry over the last 50 years. Since the isotopic signals of these changes are in the same direction and therefore additive, isotopes in precipitation are sensitive recorders of climatic changes in the region. Additionally, we infer that plants use year-round precipitation (including snowmelt), and thus leaf wax delta D values must also respond to shifts in the proportion of moisture derived from westerly storms during late winter and early spring. Downcore results give evidence for a gradual shift to cooler and wetter climates between 3.5 and 2.5 cal kyr BP, interrupted by a warm and dry episode between 3.0 and 2.7 kyr BP. Further cool and wet episodes occur between 1.9 and 1.5 and between 0.6 and 0.1 kyr BP, the latter coeval with the Little Ice Age. Warm and dry episodes from 2.5 to 1.9 and 1.5 to 0.6 kyr BP coincide with the Roman Warm Period and Medieval Climate Anomaly, respectively. Finally, we find a drying tend in recent decades. Regional comparisons lead us to infer that the strength and position of the westerlies, and wider northern hemispheric climate dynamics, control climatic shifts in arid Central Asia, leading to complex local responses. Our new archive from Lake Karakuli provides a detailed record of the local signatures of these climate transitions in the eastern Pamir.
Climate impacts on transocean dispersal and habitat in gray whales from the Pleistocene to 2100
(2015)
Arctic animals face dramatic habitat alteration due to ongoing climate change. Understanding how such species have responded to past glacial cycles can help us forecast their response to today's changing climate. Gray whales are among those marine species likely to be strongly affected by Arctic climate change, but a thorough analysis of past climate impacts on this species has been complicated by lack of information about an extinct population in the Atlantic. While little is known about the history of Atlantic gray whales or their relationship to the extant Pacific population, the extirpation of the Atlantic population during historical times has been attributed to whaling. We used a combination of ancient and modern DNA, radiocarbon dating and predictive habitat modelling to better understand the distribution of gray whales during the Pleistocene and Holocene. Our results reveal that dispersal between the Pacific and Atlantic was climate dependent and occurred both during the Pleistocene prior to the last glacial period and the early Holocene immediately following the opening of the Bering Strait. Genetic diversity in the Atlantic declined over an extended interval that predates the period of intensive commercial whaling, indicating this decline may have been precipitated by Holocene climate or other ecological causes. These first genetic data for Atlantic gray whales, particularly when combined with predictive habitat models for the year 2100, suggest that two recent sightings of gray whales in the Atlantic may represent the beginning of the expansion of this species' habitat beyond its currently realized range.
With accelerating climate cooling in the late Cenozoic, glacial and periglacial erosion became more widespread on the surface of the Earth. The resultant shift in erosion patterns significantly changed the large-scale morphology of many mountain ranges worldwide. Whereas the glacial fingerprint is easily distinguished by its characteristic fjords and U-shaped valleys, the periglacial fingerprint is more subtle but potentially prevails in some mid- to high-latitude landscapes. Previous models have advocated a frost-driven control on debris production at steep headwalls and glacial valley sides. Here we investigate the important role that periglacial processes also play in less steep parts of mountain landscapes. Understanding the influences of frost-driven processes in low-relief areas requires a focus on the consequences of an accreting soil mantle, which characterises such surfaces. We present a new model that quantifies two key physical processes: frost cracking and frost creep, as a function of both temperature and sediment thickness. Our results yield new insights into how climate and sediment transport properties combine to scale the intensity of periglacial processes. The thickness of the soil mantle strongly modulates the relation between climate and the intensity of mechanical weathering and sediment flux. Our results also point to an offset between the conditions that promote frost cracking and those that promote frost creep, indicating that a stable climate can provide optimal conditions for only one of those processes at a time. Finally, quantifying these relations also opens up the possibility of including periglacial processes in large-scale, long-term landscape evolution models, as demonstrated in a companion paper.
John Birks
(2015)
We describe the career of John Birks as a pioneering scientist who has, over a career spanning five decades, transformed palaeoecology from a largely descriptive to a rigorous quantitative science relevant to contemporary questions in ecology and environmental change. We review his influence on students and colleagues not only at Cambridge and Bergen Universities, his places of primary employment, but also on individuals and research groups in Europe and North America. We also introduce the collection of papers that we have assembled in his honour. The papers are written by his former students and close colleagues and span many of the areas of palaeoecology to which John himself has made major contributions. These include the relationship between ecology and palaeoecology, late-glacial and Holocene palaeoecology, ecological succession, climate change and vegetation history, the role of palaeoecological techniques in reconstructing and understanding the impact of human activity on terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems and numerical analysis of multivariate palaeoecological data.
The Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost (GTN-P) provides the first dynamic database associated with the Thermal State of Permafrost (TSP) and the Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM) programs, which extensively collect permafrost temperature and active layer thickness (ALT) data from Arctic, Antarctic and mountain permafrost regions. The purpose of GTN-P is to establish an early warning system for the consequences of climate change in permafrost regions and to provide standardized thermal permafrost data to global models. In this paper we introduce the GTN-P database and perform statistical analysis of the GTN-P metadata to identify and quantify the spatial gaps in the site distribution in relation to climate-effective environmental parameters. We describe the concept and structure of the data management system in regard to user operability, data transfer and data policy. We outline data sources and data processing including quality control strategies based on national correspondents. Assessment of the metadata and data quality reveals 63% metadata completeness at active layer sites and 50% metadata completeness for boreholes.
Voronoi tessellation analysis on the spatial sample distribution of boreholes and active layer measurement sites quantifies the distribution inhomogeneity and provides a potential method to locate additional permafrost research sites by improving the representativeness of thermal monitoring across areas underlain by permafrost. The depth distribution of the boreholes reveals that 73% are shallower than 25m and 27% are deeper, reaching a maximum of 1 km depth. Comparison of the GTN-P site distribution with permafrost zones, soil organic carbon contents and vegetation types exhibits different local to regional monitoring situations, which are illustrated with maps. Preferential slope orientation at the sites most likely causes a bias in the temperature monitoring and should be taken into account when using the data for global models. The distribution of GTN-P sites within zones of projected temperature change show a high representation of areas with smaller expected temperature rise but a lower number of sites within Arctic areas where climate models project extreme temperature increase.
The microbial community populating the human digestive tract has been linked to the development of obesity, diabetes and liver diseases. Proposed mechanisms on how the gut microbiota could contribute to obesity and metabolic diseases include: (1) improved energy extraction from diet by the conversion of dietary fibre to SCFA; (2) increased intestinal permeability for bacterial lipopolysaccharides (LPS) in response to the consumption of high-fat diets resulting in an elevated systemic LPS level and low-grade inflammation. Animal studies indicate differences in the physiologic effects of fermentable and non-fermentable dietary fibres as well as differences in long-and short-term effects of fermentable dietary fibre. The human intestinal microbiome is enriched in genes involved in the degradation of indigestible polysaccharides. The extent to which dietary fibres are fermented and in which molar ratio SCFA are formed depends on their physicochemical properties and on the individual microbiome. Acetate and propionate play an important role in lipid and glucose metabolism. Acetate serves as a substrate for de novo lipogenesis in liver, whereas propionate can be utilised for gluconeogenesis. The conversion of fermentable dietary fibre to SCFA provides additional energy to the host which could promote obesity. However, epidemiologic studies indicate that diets rich in fibre rather prevent than promote obesity development. This may be due to the fact that SCFA are also ligands of free fatty acid receptors (FFAR). Activation of FFAR leads to an increased expression and secretion of enteroendocrine hormones such as glucagon-like-peptide 1 or peptide YY which cause satiety. In conclusion, the role of SCFA in host energy balance needs to be re-evaluated.
GEOMAGIA50.v3
(2015)
Background: GEOMAGIA50.v3 for sediments is a comprehensive online database providing access to published paleomagnetic, rock magnetic, and chronological data obtained from lake and marine sediments deposited over the past 50 ka. Its objective is to catalogue data that will improve our understanding of changes in the geomagnetic field, physical environments, and climate.
Findings: GEOMAGIA50.v3 for sediments builds upon the structure of the pre-existing GEOMAGIA50 database for magnetic data from archeological and volcanic materials. A strong emphasis has been placed on the storage of geochronological data, and it is the first magnetic archive that includes comprehensive radiocarbon age data from sediments. The database will be updated as new sediment data become available.
Conclusions: The web-based interface for the sediment database is located at http://geomagia.gfz-potsdam.de/geomagiav3/SDquery.php. This paper is a companion to Brown et al. (Earth Planets Space doi:10.1186/s40623-015-0232-0,2015) and describes the data types, structure, and functionality of the sediment database.
In this paper we propose an algorithm to distinguish between light- and heavy-tailed probability laws underlying random datasets. The idea of the algorithm, which is visual and easy to implement, is to check whether the underlying law belongs to the domain of attraction of the Gaussian or non-Gaussian stable distribution by examining its rate of convergence. The method allows to discriminate between stable and various non-stable distributions. The test allows to differentiate between distributions, which appear the same according to standard Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. In particular, it helps to distinguish between stable and Student's t probability laws as well as between the stable and tempered stable, the cases which are considered in the literature as very cumbersome. Finally, we illustrate the procedure on plasma data to identify cases with so-called L-H transition.
Modelling the transfer of supraglacial meltwater to the bed of Leverett Glacier, Southwest Greenland
(2015)
Meltwater delivered to the bed of the Greenland Ice Sheet is a driver of variable ice-motion through changes in effective pressure and enhanced basal lubrication. Ice surface velocities have been shown to respond rapidly both to meltwater production at the surface and to drainage of supraglacial lakes, suggesting efficient transfer of meltwater from the supraglacial to subglacial hydrological systems. Although considerable effort is currently being directed towards improved modelling of the controlling surface and basal processes, modelling the temporal and spatial evolution of the transfer of melt to the bed has received less attention. Here we present the results of spatially distributed modelling for prediction of moulins and lake drainages on the Leverett Glacier in Southwest Greenland. The model is run for the 2009 and 2010 ablation seasons, and for future increased melt scenarios. The temporal pattern of modelled lake drainages are qualitatively comparable with those documented from analyses of repeat satellite imagery. The modelled timings and locations of delivery of meltwater to the bed also match well with observed temporal and spatial patterns of ice surface speed-ups. This is particularly true for the lower catchment (< 1000 m a.s.l.) where both the model and observations indicate that the development of moulins is the main mechanism for the transfer of surface meltwater to the bed. At higher elevations (e.g. 1250-1500 m a.s.l.) the development and drainage of supraglacial lakes becomes increasingly important. At these higher elevations, the delay between modelled melt generation and subsequent delivery of melt to the bed matches the observed delay between the peak air temperatures and subsequent velocity speed-ups, while the instantaneous transfer of melt to the bed in a control simulation does not. Although both moulins and lake drainages are predicted to increase in number for future warmer climate scenarios, the lake drainages play an increasingly important role in both expanding the area over which melt accesses the bed and in enabling a greater proportion of surface melt to reach the bed.