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The sea level rise induced intensification of coastal floods is a serious threat to many regions in proximity to the ocean. Although severe flood events are rare they can entail enormous damage costs, especially when built-up areas are inundated. Fortunately, the mean sea level advances slowly and there is enough time for society to adapt to the changing environment. Most commonly, this is achieved by the construction or reinforcement of flood defence measures such as dykes or sea walls but also land use and disaster management are widely discussed options. Overall, albeit the projection of sea level rise impacts and the elaboration of adequate response strategies is amongst the most prominent topics in climate impact research, global damage estimates are vague and mostly rely on the same assessment models. The thesis at hand contributes to this issue by presenting a distinctive approach which facilitates large scale assessments as well as the comparability of results across regions. Moreover, we aim to improve the general understanding of the interplay between mean sea level rise, adaptation, and coastal flood damage.
Our undertaking is based on two basic building blocks. Firstly, we make use of macroscopic flood-damage functions, i.e. damage functions that provide the total monetary damage within a delineated region (e.g. a city) caused by a flood of certain magnitude. After introducing a systematic methodology for the automatised derivation of such functions, we apply it to a total of 140 European cities and obtain a large set of damage curves utilisable for individual as well as comparative damage assessments. By scrutinising the resulting curves, we are further able to characterise the slope of the damage functions by means of a functional model. The proposed function has in general a sigmoidal shape but exhibits a power law increase for the relevant range of flood levels and we detect an average exponent of 3.4 for the considered cities. This finding represents an essential input for subsequent elaborations on the general interrelations of involved quantities.
The second basic element of this work is extreme value theory which is employed to characterise the occurrence of flood events and in conjunction with a damage function provides the probability distribution of the annual damage in the area under study. The resulting approach is highly flexible as it assumes non-stationarity in all relevant parameters and can be easily applied to arbitrary regions, sea level, and adaptation scenarios. For instance, we find a doubling of expected flood damage in the city of Copenhagen for a rise in mean sea levels of only 11 cm. By following more general considerations, we succeed in deducing surprisingly simple functional expressions to describe the damage behaviour in a given region for varying mean sea levels, changing storm intensities, and supposed protection levels. We are thus able to project future flood damage by means of a reduced set of parameters, namely the aforementioned damage function exponent and the extreme value parameters. Similar examinations are carried out to quantify the aleatory uncertainty involved in these projections. In this regard, a decrease of (relative) uncertainty with rising mean sea levels is detected. Beyond that, we demonstrate how potential adaptation measures can be assessed in terms of a Cost-Benefit Analysis. This is exemplified by the Danish case study of Kalundborg, where amortisation times for a planned investment are estimated for several sea level scenarios and discount rates.
Earthquake clustering has proven the most useful tool to forecast changes in seismicity rates in the short and medium term (hours to months), and efforts are currently being made to extend the scope of such models to operational earthquake forecasting. The overarching goal of the research presented in this thesis is to improve physics-based earthquake forecasts, with a focus on aftershock sequences. Physical models of triggered seismicity are based on the redistribution of stresses in the crust, coupled with the rate-and-state constitutive law proposed by Dieterich to calculate changes in seismicity rate. This type of models are known as Coulomb- rate and-state (CRS) models. In spite of the success of the Coulomb hypothesis, CRS models typically performed poorly in comparison to statistical ones, and they have been underepresented in the operational forecasting context. In this thesis, I address some of these issues, and in particular these questions: (1) How can we realistically model the uncertainties and heterogeneity of the mainshock stress field? (2) What is the effect of time dependent stresses in the postseismic phase on seismicity? I focus on two case studies from different tectonic settings: the Mw 9.0 Tohoku megathrust and the Mw 6.0 Parkfield strike slip earthquake. I study aleatoric uncertainties using a Monte Carlo method. I find that the existence of multiple receiver faults is the most important source of intrinsic stress heterogeneity, and CRS models perform better when this variability is taken into account. Epistemic uncertainties inherited from the slip models also have a significant impact on the forecast, and I find that an ensemble model based on several slip distributions outperforms most individual models. I address the role of postseismic stresses due to aseismic slip on the mainshock fault (afterslip) and to the redistribution of stresses by previous aftershocks (secondary triggering). I find that modeling secondary triggering improves model performance. The effect of afterslip is less clear, and difficult to assess for near-fault aftershocks due to the large uncertainties of the afterslip models. Off-fault events, on the other hand, are less sensitive to the details of the slip distribution: I find that following the Tohoku earthquake, afterslip promotes seismicity in the Fukushima region. To evaluate the performance of the improved CRS models in a pseudo-operational context, I submitted them for independent testing to a collaborative experiment carried out by CSEP for the 2010-2012 Canterbury sequence. Preliminary results indicate that physical models generally perform well compared to statistical ones, suggesting that CRS models may have a role to play in the future of operational forecasting. To facilitate efforts in this direction, and to enable future studies of earthquake triggering by time dependent processes, I have made the code open source. In the final part of this thesis I summarize the capabilities of the program and outline technical aspects regarding performance and parallelization strategies.
In this thesis we study reciprocal classes of Markov chains. Given a continuous time Markov chain on a countable state space, acting as reference dynamics, the associated reciprocal class is the set of all probability measures on path space that can be written as a mixture of its bridges. These processes possess a conditional independence property that generalizes the Markov property, and evolved from an idea of Schrödinger, who wanted to obtain a probabilistic interpretation of quantum mechanics.
Associated to a reciprocal class is a set of reciprocal characteristics, which are space-time functions that determine the reciprocal class. We compute explicitly these characteristics, and divide them into two main families: arc characteristics and cycle characteristics. As a byproduct, we obtain an explicit criterion to check when two different Markov chains share their bridges.
Starting from the characteristics we offer two different descriptions of the reciprocal class, including its non-Markov probabilities.
The first one is based on a pathwise approach and the second one on short time asymptotic. With the first approach one produces a family of functional equations whose only solutions are precisely the elements of the reciprocal class. These equations are integration by parts on path space associated with derivative operators which perturb the paths by mean of the addition of random loops. Several geometrical tools are employed to construct such formulas. The problem of obtaining sharp characterizations is also considered, showing some interesting connections with discrete geometry. Examples of such formulas are given in the framework of counting processes and random walks on Abelian groups, where the set of loops has a group structure.
In addition to this global description, we propose a second approach by looking at the short time behavior of a reciprocal process. In the same way as the Markov property and short time expansions of transition probabilities characterize Markov chains, we show that a reciprocal class is characterized by imposing the reciprocal property and two families of short time expansions for the bridges. Such local approach is suitable to study reciprocal processes on general countable graphs. As application of our characterization, we considered several interesting graphs, such as lattices, planar
graphs, the complete graph, and the hypercube.
Finally, we obtain some first results about concentration of measure implied by lower bounds on the reciprocal characteristics.
Water resources from Central Asia’s mountain regions have a high relevance for the water supply of the water scarce lowlands. A good understanding of the water cycle in these mountain regions is therefore needed to develop water management strategies. Hydrological modeling helps to improve our knowledge of the regional water cycle, and it can be used to gain a better understanding of past changes or estimate future hydrologic changes in view of projected changes in climate. However, due to the scarcity of hydrometeorological data, hydrological modeling for mountain regions in Central Asia involves large uncertainties.
Addressing this problem, the first aim of this thesis was to develop hydrological modeling approaches that can increase the credibility of hydrological models in data sparse mountain regions. This was achieved by using additional data from remote sensing and atmospheric modeling. It was investigated whether spatial patterns from downscaled reanalysis data can be used for the interpolation of station-based precipitation data. This approach was compared to other precipitation estimates using a hydrologic evaluation based on hydrological modeling and a comparison of simulated and observed discharge, which demonstrated a generally good performance of this method. The study further investigated the value of satellite-derived snow cover data for model calibration. Trade-offs of good model performance in terms of discharge and snow cover were explicitly evaluated using a multiobjective optimization algorithm, and the results were contrasted with single-objective calibration and Monte Carlo simulations. The study clearly shows that the additional use of snow cover data improved the internal consistency of the hydrological model. In this context, it was further investigated for the first time how many snow cover scenes were required for hydrological model calibration.
The second aim of this thesis was the application of the hydrological model in order to investigate the causes of observed streamflow increases in two headwater catchments of the Tarim River over the recent decades. This simulation-based approach for trend attribution was complemented by a data-based approach. The hydrological model was calibrated to discharge and glacier mass balance data and considered changes in glacier geometry over time. The results show that in the catchment with a lower glacierization, increasing precipitation and temperature both contributed to the streamflow increases, while in the catchment with a stronger glacierization, increasing temperatures were identified as the dominant driver.
Business Process Management has become an integral part of modern organizations in the private and public sector for improving their operations. In the course of Business Process Management efforts, companies and organizations assemble large process model repositories with many hundreds and thousands of business process models bearing a large amount of information. With the advent of large business process model collections, new challenges arise as structuring and managing a large amount of process models, their maintenance, and their quality assurance.
This is covered by business process architectures that have been introduced for organizing and structuring business process model collections. A variety of business process architecture approaches have been proposed that align business processes along aspects of interest, e. g., goals, functions, or objects. They provide a high level categorization of single processes ignoring their interdependencies, thus hiding valuable information. The production of goods or the delivery of services are often realized by a complex system of interdependent business processes. Hence, taking a holistic view at business processes interdependencies becomes a major necessity to organize, analyze, and assess the impact of their re-/design. Visualizing business processes interdependencies reveals hidden and implicit information from a process model collection.
In this thesis, we present a novel Business Process Architecture approach for representing and analyzing business process interdependencies on an abstract level. We propose a formal definition of our Business Process Architecture approach, design correctness criteria, and develop analysis techniques for assessing their quality. We describe a methodology for applying our Business Process Architecture approach top-down and bottom-up. This includes techniques for Business Process Architecture extraction from, and decomposition to process models while considering consistency issues between business process architecture and process model level. Using our extraction algorithm, we present a novel technique to identify and visualize data interdependencies in Business Process Data Architectures. Our Business Process Architecture approach provides business process experts,managers, and other users of a process model collection with an overview that allows reasoning about a large set of process models,
understanding, and analyzing their interdependencies in a facilitated way. In this regard we evaluated our Business Process Architecture approach in an experiment and provide implementations of selected techniques.
This dissertation addresses the question of how linguistic structures can be represented in working memory. We propose a memory-based computational model that derives offline and online complexity profiles in terms of a top-down parser for minimalist grammars (Stabler, 2011). The complexity metric reflects the amount of time an item is stored in memory. The presented architecture links grammatical representations stored in memory directly to the cognitive behavior by deriving predictions about sentence processing difficulty.
Results from five different sentence comprehension experiments were used to evaluate the model's assumptions about memory limitations. The predictions of the complexity metric were compared to the locality (integration and storage) cost metric of Dependency Locality Theory (Gibson, 2000). Both metrics make comparable offline and online predictions for four of the five phenomena. The key difference between the two metrics is that the proposed complexity metric accounts for the structural complexity of intervening material. In contrast, DLT's integration cost metric considers the number of discourse referents, not the syntactic structural complexity.
We conclude that the syntactic analysis plays a significant role in memory requirements of parsing. An incremental top-down parser based on a grammar formalism easily computes offline and online complexity profiles, which can be used to derive predictions about sentence processing difficulty.
Physical fitness is an important marker of health that enables people to carry out activities of daily living with vigour and alertness but without undue fatigue and with sufficient reserve to enjoy active leisure pursuits and to meet unforeseen emergencies. Especially, due to scientific findings that the onset of civilization diseases (e.g., obesity, cardiovascular disease) begins in childhood and that physical fitness tracks (at least) into young adulthood, the regular monitoring and promotion of physical fitness in children is risen up to a public health issue. In relation to the evaluation of a child’s physical fitness over time (i.e., development) the use of longitudinally-based percentile values is of particular interest due to their underlined dedication of true physical fitness development within subjects (i.e., individual changes in timing and tempo of growth and maturation). Besides its genetic determination (e.g., sex, body height), physical fitness is influenced by factors that refer to children’s environment and behaviour. For instance, disparities in physical fitness according to children’s living area are frequently reported concerning the fact that living in rural areas as compared to urban areas seems to be more favourable for children’s physical fitness. In addition, cross-sectional studies found higher fitness values in children participating in sports clubs as compared to non-participants. However, up to date, the observed associations between both (i.e., living area and sports club participating) and children’s physical fitness are unresolved concerning a long-term effect. In addition, social inequality as determined by the socioeconomic status (SES) extends through many areas of children’s life. While evidence indicates that the SES is inversely related to various indices of child’s daily life and behaviour like educational success, nutritional habits, and sedentary- and physical activity behaviour, a potential relationship between child’s physical fitness and the SES is hardly investigated and indicated inconsistent results.
The present thesis addressed three objectives: (1) to generate physical fitness percentiles for 9- to 12- year-old boys and girls using a longitudinal approach and to analyse the age- and sex-specific development of physical fitness, (2) to investigate the long-term effect of living area and sports club participation on physical fitness in third- to sixth-grade primary school students, and (3) to examine associations between the SES and physical fitness in a large and representative (i.e., for a German federal state) sample of third grade primary school students.
Methods
(i/ii) Healthy third graders were followed over four consecutive years (up to grade 6), including annually assessment of physical fitness and parental questionnaire (i.e., status of sports club participation and living area). Six tests were conducted to estimate various components of physical fitness: speed (50-m sprint test), upper body muscular power (1-kg ball push test), lower body muscular power (triple hop test), flexibility (stand-and-reach test), agility (star agility run test), and cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) (9-min run test). (iii) Within a cross-sectional study (i.e., third objective), physical fitness of third graders was assessed by six physical fitness tests including: speed (20-m sprint test), upper body muscular power (1-kg ball push test), lower body muscular power (standing long jump [SLJ] test), flexibility (stand-and-reach test), agility (star agility run test), and CRF (6-min run test). By means of questionnaire, students reported their status of organized sports participation (OSP).
Results
(i) With respect to percentiles of physical fitness development, test performances increased in boys and girls from age 9 to 12, except for males’ flexibility (i.e., stable performance over time). Girls revealed significantly better performance in flexibility, whereas boys scored significantly higher in the remaining physical fitness tests. In girls as compared to boys, physical fitness development was slightly faster for upper body muscular power but substantially faster for flexibility. Generated physical fitness percentile curves indicated a timed and capacity-specific physical fitness development (curvilinear) for upper body muscular power, agility, and CRF. (ii) Concerning the effect of living area and sports club participation on physical fitness development, children living in urban areas showed a significantly faster performance development in physical fitness components of upper and lower body muscular power as compared to peers from rural areas. The same direction was noted as a trend in CRF. Additionally, children that regularly participated in a sports club, when compared to those that not continuously participated in a sports club demonstrated a significantly faster performance development in lower body muscular power. A trend of faster performance development in sports club participants occurred in CRF too. (iii) Regarding the association of SES with physical fitness, the percentage of third graders that achieved a high physical fitness level in lower body muscular power and CRF was significantly higher in students attending schools in communities with high SES as compared to middle and low SES, irrespective of sex. Similar, students from the high SES-group performed significantly better in lower body muscular power and CRF than students from the middle and/or the low SES-group.
Conclusion
(i) The generated percentile values provide an objective tool to estimate childrenʼs physical fitness within the frame of physical education (e.g., age- and sex-specific grading of motor performance) and further to detect children with specific fitness characteristics (low fit or high fit) that may be indicative for the necessity of preventive health promotion or long term athlete development. (ii) It is essential to consider variables of different domains (e.g., environment and behavior) in order to improve knowledge of potential factors which influence physical fitness during childhood. In this regard, the present thesis provide a first input to clarify the causality of living area and sports club participation on physical fitness development in school-aged children. Living in urban areas as well as a regular participation in sports clubs positively affected children´s physical fitness development (i.e., muscular power and CRF). Herein, sports club participation seems to be a key factor within the relationship between living area and physical fitness. (iii) The findings of the present thesis imply that attending schools in communities with high SES refers to better performance in specific physical fitness test items (i.e., muscular power, CRF) in third graders. Extra-curricular physical education classes may represent an important equalizing factor for physical activity opportunities in children of different SES backgrounds. In regard to strong evidence of a positive relationship between physical fitness - in particular muscular fitness/ CRF - and health, more emphasis should be laid on establishing sports clubs and extra-curricular physical education classes as an easy and attractive means to promote fitness-, and hence health- enhancing daily physical activity for all children (i.e. public health approach).
The main research question of this thesis concerns the relation between focus interpretation, focus realization, and association with focus in the West Chadic language Ngamo.
Concerning the relation between focus realization and interpretation, this thesis contributes to the question, cross-linguistically, what factors influence a marked realization of the focus/background distinction. There is background-marking rather than focus-marking in Ngamo, and the background marker is related to the definite determiner in the language. Using original fieldwork data as a basis, a formal semantic analysis of the background marker as a definite determiner of situations is proposed.
Concerning the relation between focus and association with focus, the thesis adds to the growing body of crosslinguistic evidence that not all so-called focus-sensitive operators always associate with focus. The thesis shows that while the exclusive particle yak('i) (= "only") in Ngamo conventionally associates
with focus, the particles har('i) (= "even, as far as, until, already"), and ke('e) (= "also, and") do not.
The thesis provides an analysis of these phenomena in a situation semantic framework.
The main focus of the present thesis was to investigate the stabilization ability of poly(ionic liquid)s (PILs) in several examples as well as develop novel chemical structures and synthetic routes of PILs. The performed research can be specifically divided into three parts that include synthesis and application of hybrid material composed of PIL and cellulose nanofibers (CNFs), thiazolium-containing PILs, and main-chain imidazolium-type PILs.
In the first chapter, a vinylimidazolium-type IL was polymerized in water in the presence of CNFs resulting in the in situ electrostatic grafting of polymeric chains onto the surface of CNFs. The synthesized hybrid material merged advantages of its two components, that is, superior mechanical strength of CNFs and anion dependent solution properties of PILs. In contrast to unmodified CNFs, the hybrid could be stabilized and processed in organic solvents enabling its application as reinforcing agent for porous polyelectrolyte membranes.
In the second part, PILs and ionic polymers containing two types of thiazolium repeating units were synthesized. Such polymers displayed counterion dependent thermal stability and solubility in organic solvents of various dielectric constants. This new class of PILs was tested as stabilizers and phase transfer agents for carbon nanotubes in aqueous and organic media, and as binder materials to disperse electroactive powders and carbon additives in solid electrode in lithium-ion batteries. The incorporation of S and N atoms into the polymeric structures make such PILs also potential precursors for S, N - co-doped carbons.
In the last chapter, reactants originating from biomass were successfully harnessed to synthesize main-chain imidazolium-type PILs. An imidazolium-type diester IL obtained via a modified Debus-Radziszewski reaction underwent transesterification with diol in a polycondensation reaction. This yielded a polyester-type PIL which CO2 sorption properties were investigated. In the next step, the modified Debus-Radziszewski reaction was further applied to synthesize main-chain PILs according to a convenient, one-step protocol, using water as a green solvent and simple organic molecules as reagents. Depending on the structure of the employed diamine, the synthesized PILs after anion exchange showed superior thermal stability with unusually high carbonization yields.
Overall, the outcome of these studies will actively contribute to the current research on PILs by introducing novel PIL chemical structures, improved synthetic routes, and new examples of stabilized materials. The synthesis of main-chain imidazolium-type PILs by a modified Debus-Radziszewski reaction is of a special interest for the future work on porous ionic liquid networks as well as colloidal PIL nanoparticles.
The lives of more than 1/6 th of the world population is directly affected by the caprices of the South Asian summer monsoon rainfall. India receives around 78 % of the annual precipitation during the June-September months, the summer monsoon season of South Asia. But, the monsoon circulation is not consistent throughout the entire summer season. Episodes of heavy rainfall (active periods) and low rainfall (break periods) are inherent to the intraseasonal variability of the South Asian summer monsoon. Extended breaks or long-lasting dryness can result in droughts and hence trigger crop failures and in turn famines. Furthermore, India's electricity generation from renewable sources (wind and hydro-power), which is increasingly important in order to satisfy the rapidly rising demand for energy, is highly reliant on the prevailing meteorology. The major drought years 2002 and 2009 for the Indian summer monsoon during the last decades, which are results of the occurrence of multiple extended breaks, emphasise exemplary that the understanding of the monsoon system and its intraseasonal variation is of greatest importance. Although, numerous studies based on observations, reanalysis data and global model simulations have been carried out with the focus on monsoon active and break phases over India, the understanding of the monsoon intraseasonal variability is only in the infancy stage. Regional climate models could benefit the comprehension of monsoon breaks by its resolution advantage.
This study investigates moist dynamical processes that initiate and maintain breaks during the South Asian summer monsoon using the atmospheric regional climate model HIRHAM5 at a horizontal resolution of 25 km forced by the ECMWF ERA Interim reanalysis for the period 1979-2012. By calculating moisture and moist static energy budgets the various competing mechanisms leading to extended breaks are quantitatively estimated. Advection of dry air from the deserts of western Asia towards central India is the dominant moist dynamical process in initiating extended break conditions over South Asia. Once initiated, the extended breaks are maintained due to many competing mechanisms: (i) the anomalous easterlies at the southern flank of this anticyclonic anomaly weaken the low-level cross-equatorial jet and thus the moisture transport into the monsoon region, (ii) differential radiative heating over the continental and the oceanic tropical convergence zone induces a local Hadley circulation with anomalous rising over the equatorial Indian Ocean and descent over central India, and (iii) a cyclonic response to positive rainfall anomalies over the near-equatorial Indian Ocean amplifies the anomalous easterlies over India and hence contributes to the low-level divergence over central India.
A sensitivity experiment that mimics a scenario of higher atmospheric aerosol concentrations over South Asia addresses a current issue of large uncertainty: the role aerosols play in suppressing monsoon rainfall and hence in triggering breaks. To study the indirect aerosol effects the cloud droplet number concentration was increased to imitate the aerosol's function as cloud condensation nuclei. The sensitivity experiment with altered microphysical cloud properties shows a reduction in the summer monsoon precipitation together with a weakening of the South Asian summer monsoon. Several physical mechanisms are proposed to be responsible for the suppressed monsoon rainfall: (i) according to the first indirect radiative forcing the increase in the number of cloud droplets causes an increase in the cloud reflectivity of solar radiation, leading to a climate cooling over India which in turn reduces the hydrological cycle, (ii) a stabilisation of the troposphere induced by a differential cooling between the surface and the upper troposphere over central India inhibits the growth of deep convective rain clouds, (iii) an increase of the amount of low and mid-level clouds together with a decrease in high-level cloud amount amplify the surface cooling and hence the atmospheric stability, and (iv) dynamical changes of the monsoon manifested as a anomalous anticyclonic circulation over India reduce the moisture transport into the monsoon region. The study suggests that the changes in the total precipitation, which are dominated by changes in the convective precipitation, mainly result from the indirect radiative forcing. Suppression of rainfall due to the direct microphysical effect is found to be negligible over India. Break statistics of the polluted cloud scenario indicate an increase in the occurrence of short breaks (3 days), while the frequency of extended breaks (> 7 days) is clearly not affected. This disproves the hypothesis that more and smaller cloud droplets, caused by a high load of atmospheric aerosols trigger long drought conditions over central India.