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Many foresight studies concentrate on technological foresight and its impact at the organizational level. However, often these studies overlook the soft factor of employee competences which is critical to adopting technological and organizational changes and to developing the necessary innovation capabilities. This study investigates the theoretical and methodological underdeveloped relationship between technological innovation and social initiated change and the impact on individual competences in a dynamic sector. The setting of our study is the turbulent creative industries as a whole, where creative and artistic expression merges with changing technological progress. In a scenario study we mainly conducted in 2010, we developed a scenario model for competences to combine individual competences with a scenario approach to investigate how competences are important to the sector shift or need to be enhanced in the future. We use primary qualitative data from expert interviews and workshops and secondary data from industry reports to identify thirty-seven influence factors. An influence matrix calculation and a cluster analysis are used to project three different scenarios presenting how future developments of the creative industries will influence the competences needed for creative occupations. Now, five years later, we reflect the accuracy of the developed scenarios via a comparison of today's situation with the situation in the scenarios. We discuss theoretical contributions for the foresight literature and practical implementations for the future of work in general, and in particular for the creative industries case. (C) 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Within the last decade, the role of the Creative Industries has grown to become an important part of the economic system. The increasing acceleration of new developments in media and ICT technologies greatly affected the Creative Industries' dynamic with a direct impact on the people working in this sector. Since only a few studies focus on competences needs, more or less isolated from the trends within the industry, we address the topic of individual competence shifts in the turbulent environment of the Creative Industries. We investigated the trends regarding competence shifts and their implications as well as the competences which are essential for creative professionals. We conducted a broad literature review as well as a qualitative study, which includes interviews and workshops with industry experts on trends within the Creative Industries and corresponding dimensions and demands for competences. We present four requirements that call for shifts in the education of competences. Based on the discussion of requirements, we present a competence portfolio for the Creative Industries along the dimensions of professional, methodological and personal-social competences. The portfolio clearly indicates which competences should be taken into consideration for the development of curricula and study programmes in the education of creative professionals. A generalization of these findings suggests new challenges for companies relying on creative professionals.