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Thousands of glacier lakes have been forming behind natural dams in high mountains following glacier retreat since the early 20th century. Some of these lakes abruptly released pulses of water and sediment with disastrous downstream consequences. Yet it remains unclear whether the reported rise of these glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs) has been fueled by a warming atmosphere and enhanced meltwater production, or simply a growing research effort. Here we estimate trends and biases in GLOF reporting based on the largest global catalog of 1,997 dated glacier-related floods in six major mountain ranges from 1901 to 2017. We find that the positive trend in the number of reported GLOFs has decayed distinctly after a break in the 1970s, coinciding with independently detected trend changes in annual air temperatures and in the annual number of field-based glacier surveys (a proxy of scientific reporting). We observe that GLOF reports and glacier surveys decelerated, while temperature rise accelerated in the past five decades. Enhanced warming alone can thus hardly explain the annual number of reported GLOFs, suggesting that temperature-driven glacier lake formation, growth, and failure are weakly coupled, or that outbursts have been overlooked. Indeed, our analysis emphasizes a distinct geographic and temporal bias in GLOF reporting, and we project that between two to four out of five GLOFs on average might have gone unnoticed in the early to mid-20th century. We recommend that such biases should be considered, or better corrected for, when attributing the frequency of reported GLOFs to atmospheric warming.
With the increasing sensitivity of gravitational-wave detectors, we expect to observe multiple binary neutron-star systems through gravitational waves in the near future. The combined analysis of these gravitational-wave signals offers the possibility to constrain the neutron-star radius and the equation of state of dense nuclear matter with unprecedented accuracy. However, it is crucial to ensure that uncertainties inherent in the gravitational-wave models will not lead to systematic biases when information from multiple detections is combined. To quantify waveform systematics, we perform an extensive simulation campaign of binary neutron-star sources and analyze them with a set of four different waveform models. For our analysis with 38 simulations, we find that statistical uncertainties in the neutron-star radius decrease to 1250 m (2% at 90% credible interval) but that systematic differences between currently employed waveform models can be twice as large. Hence, it will be essential to ensure that systematic biases will not become dominant in inferences of the neutron-star equation of state when capitalizing on future developments.
Rupture directivity, implying a predominant earthquake rupture propagation direction, is typically inferred upon the identification of 2D azimuthal patterns of seismic observations for weak to large earthquakes using surface-monitoring networks. However, the recent increase of 3D monitoring networks deployed in the shallow subsurface and underground laboratories toward the monitoring of microseismicity allows to extend the directivity analysis to 3D modeling, beyond the usual range of magnitudes. The high-quality full waveforms recorded for the largest, decimeter-scale acoustic emission (AE) events during a meter-scale hydraulic fracturing experiment in granites at similar to 410 m depth allow us to resolve the apparent durations observed at each AE sensor to analyze 3D-directivity effects. Unilateral and (asymmetric) bilateral ruptures are then characterized by the introduction of a parameter kappa, representing the angle between the directivity vector and the station vector. While the cloud of AE activity indicates the planes of the hydrofractures, the resolved directivity vectors show off-plane orientations, indicating that rupture planes of microfractures on a scale of centimeters have different geometries. Our results reveal a general alignment of the rupture directivity with the orientation of the minimum horizontal stress, implying that not only the slip direction but also the fracture growth produced by the fluid injections is controlled by the local stress conditions.
In vitro thrombogenicity test systems require co-cultivation of endothelial cells and platelets under blood flow-like conditions. Here, a commercially available perfusion system is explored using plasma-treated cyclic olefin copolymer (COC) as a substrate for the endothelial cell layer. COC was characterized prior to endothelialization and co-cultivation with platelets under static or flow conditions. COC exhibits a low roughness and a moderate hydrophilicity. Flow promoted endothelial cell growth and prevented platelet adherence. These findings show the suitability of COC as substrate and the importance of blood flow-like conditions for the assessment of the thrombogenic risk of drugs or cardiovascular implant materials.
After initial detection of target archival DNA of a 116-year-old syntype specimen of the smooth lantern shark, Etmopterus pusillus, in a single-stranded DNA library, we shotgun-sequenced additional 9 million reads from this same DNA library. Sequencing reads were used for extracting mitochondrial sequence information for analyses of mitochondrial DNA characteristics and reconstruction of the mitochondrial genome. The archival DNA is highly fragmented. A total of 4599 mitochondrial reads were available for the genome reconstruction using an iterative mapping approach. The resulting genome sequence has 12 times coverage and a length of 16 741 bp. All 37 vertebrate mitochondrial loci plus the control region were identified and annotated. The mitochondrial NADH2 gene was subsequently used to place the syntype haplotype in a network comprising multiple E. pusillus samples from various distant localities as well as sequences from a morphological similar species, the shortfin smooth lantern shark Etmopterus joungi. Results confirm the almost global distribution of E. pusillus and suggest E. joungi to be a junior synonym of E. pusillus. As mitochondrial DNA often represents the only available reference information in non-model organisms, this study illustrates the importance of mitochondrial DNA from an aged, wet collection type specimen for taxonomy.
Numerical studies of the dynamics of gravitational systems, e.g., black hole-neutron star systems, require physical and constraint-satisfying initial data. In this article, we present the newly developed pseudospectral code ELLIPTICA, an infrastructure for construction of initial data for various binary and single gravitational systems of all kinds. The elliptic equations under consideration are solved on a single spatial hypersurface of the spacetime manifold. Using coordinate maps, the hypersurface is covered by patches whose boundaries can adapt to the surface of the compact objects. To solve elliptic equations with arbitrary boundary condition, ELLIPTICA deploys a Schur complement domain decomposition method with a direct solver. In this version, we use cubed sphere coordinate maps and the fields are expanded using Chebyshev polynomials of the first kind. Here, we explain the building blocks of ELLIPTICA and the initial data construction algorithm for a black hole-neutron star binary system. We perform convergence tests and evolve the data to validate our results. Within our framework, the neutron star can reach spin values close to breakup with arbitrary direction, while the black hole can have arbitrary spin with dimensionless spin magnitude ∼0.8.
This paper presents two new pollen records and quantitative climate reconstructions from northern Chukotka documenting environmental changes over the last 27.9 ka. Open tundra- and steppe-like habitats dominated between 27.9 and 18.7 cal. ka BP. Betula and Alnus shrubs might have grown in sheltered microhabitats but disappeared after 18.7 cal. ka BP. Although the climate was rather harsh, local herb-dominated communities supported herbivores as is evident by the presence of coprophilous spores in the sediments. The increase in Salix and Cyperaceae similar to 16.1 cal. ka BP suggests climate amelioration. Shrub Betula appeared similar to 15.9 cal. ka BP, and became dominant after similar to 15.52 cal. ka BP, whilst typical steppe communities drastically reduced. Very high presence of Botryococcus in the Lateglacial sediments reflects widespread shallow habitats, probably due to lake level increase. Shrub Alnus became common after similar to 13 cal. ka BP reflecting further climate amelioration. Simultaneously, herb communities gradually decreased in the vegetation reaching a minimum similar to 11.8 cal. ka BP. A gradual decrease of algae remains suggests a reduction of shallow-water habitats. Shrubby and graminoid tundra was dominant similar to 11.8-11.1 cal. ka BP, later Salix stands significantly decreased. The forest-tundra ecotone established in the Early Holocene, shortly after 11.1 cal. ka BP. Low contents of green algae in the Early Holocene sediments likely reflect deeper aquatic conditions. The most favourable climate conditions were between similar to 10.6 and 7 cal. ka BP. Vegetation became similar to the modern after similar to 7 cal. ka BP but Pinus pumila came to the Ilirney area at about 1.2 cal. ka BP. It is important to emphasize that the study area provided refugia for Betula and Alnus during MIS 2. It is also notable that our records do not reflect evidence of Younger Dryas cooling, which is inconsistent with some regional environmental records but in good accordance with some others.
The nature of the interaction between prehistoric humans and their environment, especially the vegetation, has long been of interest. The Qinghai Lake Basin in North China is well-suited to exploring the interactions between prehistoric humans and vegetation in the Tibetan Plateau, because of the comparatively dense distribution of archaeological sites and the ecologically fragile environment. Previous pollen studies of Qinghai Lake have enabled a detailed reconstruction of the regional vegetation, but they have provided relatively little information on vegetation change within the Qinghai Lake watershed. To address the issue we conducted a pollen-based vegetation reconstruction for an archaeological site (YWY), located on the southern shore of Qinghai Lake. We used high temporal-resolution pollen records from the YWY site and from Qinghai Lake, spanning the interval since the last deglaciation (15.3 kyr BP to the present) to quantitatively reconstruct changes in the local and regional vegetation using Landscape Reconstruction Algorithm models. The results show that, since the late glacial, spruce forest grew at high altitudes in the surrounding mountains, while the lakeshore environment was occupied mainly by shrub-steppe. From the lateglacial to the middle Holocene, coniferous woodland began to expand downslope and reached the YWY site at 7.1 kyr BP. The living environment of the local small groups of Paleolithic-Epipaleolithic humans (during 15.3-13.1 kyr BP and 9-6.4 kyr BP) changed from shrub-steppe to coniferous forest-steppe. The pollen record shows no evidence of pronounced changes in the vegetation community corresponding to human activity. However, based on a comparison of the local and regional vegetation reconstructions, low values of biodiversity and a significant increase in two indicators of vegetation degradation, Chenopodiaceae and Rosaceae, suggest that prehistoric hunters-gatherers likely disturbed the local vegetation during 9.0-6.4 kyr BP. Our findings are a preliminary attempt to study human-environment interactions at Paleolithic-Epipaleolithic sites in the region, and they contribute to ongoing environmental archaeology research in the Tibetan Plateau.
Biodiversity maintains soil multifunctionality and soil organic carbon in novel urban ecosystems
(2022)
Biodiversity in urban ecosystems has the potential to increase ecosystem functions and support a suite of services valued by society, including services provided by soils. Specifically, the sequestration of carbon in soils has often been advocated as a solution to mitigate the steady increase in CO2 concentration in the atmosphere as a key driver of climate change. However, urban ecosystems are also characterized by an often high level of ecological novelty due to profound human-mediated changes, such as the presence of high numbers of non-native species, impervious surfaces or other disturbances. Yet it is poorly understood whether and how biodiversity affects ecosystem functioning and services of urban soils under these novel conditions. In this study, we assessed the influence of above- and below-ground diversity, as well as urbanization and plant invasions, on multifunctionality and organic carbon stocks of soils in non-manipulated grasslands along an urbanization gradient in Berlin, Germany. We focused on plant diversity (measured as species richness and functional trait diversity) and, in addition, on soil organism diversity as a potential mediator for the relationship of plant species diversity and ecosystem functioning. Our results showed positive effects of plant diversity on soil multifunctionality and soil organic carbon stocks along the entire gradient. Structural equation models revealed that plant diversity enhanced soil multifunctionality and soil organic carbon by increasing the diversity of below-ground organisms. These positive effects of plant diversity on soil multifunctionality and soil fauna were not restricted to native plant species only, but were also exerted by non-native species, although to a lesser degree. Synthesis. We conclude that enhancing diversity in plants and soil fauna of urban grasslands can increase the multifunctionality of urban soils and also add to their often underestimated but very valuable role in mitigating effects of climate change.
The geomagnetic activity index Kp is widely used but is restricted by low time resolution (3-hourly) and an upper limit. To address this, new geomagnetic activity indices, Hpo, are introduced. Similar to Kp, Hpo expresses the level of planetary geomagnetic activity in units of thirds (0o, 0+, 1-, 1o, 1+, 2-, horizontal ellipsis ) based on the magnitude of geomagnetic disturbances observed at subauroral observatories. Hpo has a higher time resolution than Kp. 30-min (Hp30) and 60-min (Hp60) indices are produced. The frequency distribution of Hpo is designed to be similar to that of Kp so that Hpo may be used as a higher time-resolution alternative to Kp. Unlike Kp, which is capped at 9o, Hpo is an open-ended index and thus can characterize severe geomagnetic storms more accurately. Hp30, Hp60 and corresponding linearly scaled ap30 and ap60 are available, in near real time, at the GFZ website (https://www.gfz-potsdam.de/en/hpo-index).