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A comprehensive study on seismic hazard and earthquake triggering is crucial for effective mitigation of earthquake risks. The destructive nature of earthquakes motivates researchers to work on forecasting despite the apparent randomness of the earthquake occurrences. Understanding their underlying mechanisms and patterns is vital, given their potential for widespread devastation and loss of life. This thesis combines methodologies, including Coulomb stress calculations and aftershock analysis, to shed light on earthquake complexities, ultimately enhancing seismic hazard assessment.
The Coulomb failure stress (CFS) criterion is widely used to predict the spatial distributions of aftershocks following large earthquakes. However, uncertainties associated with CFS calculations arise from non-unique slip inversions and unknown fault networks, particularly due to the choice of the assumed aftershocks (receiver) mechanisms. Recent studies have proposed alternative stress quantities and deep neural network approaches as superior to CFS with predefined receiver mechanisms. To challenge these propositions, I utilized 289 slip inversions from the SRCMOD database to calculate more realistic CFS values for a layered-half space and variable receiver mechanisms. The analysis also investigates the impact of magnitude cutoff, grid size variation, and aftershock duration on the ranking of stress metrics using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. Results reveal the performance of stress metrics significantly improves after accounting for receiver variability and for larger aftershocks and shorter time periods, without altering the relative ranking of the different stress metrics.
To corroborate Coulomb stress calculations with the findings of earthquake source studies in more detail, I studied the source properties of the 2005 Kashmir earthquake and its aftershocks, aiming to unravel the seismotectonics of the NW Himalayan syntaxis. I simultaneously relocated the mainshock and its largest aftershocks using phase data, followed by a comprehensive analysis of Coulomb stress changes on the aftershock planes. By computing the Coulomb failure stress changes on the aftershock faults, I found that all large aftershocks lie in regions of positive stress change, indicating triggering by either co-seismic or post-seismic slip on the mainshock fault.
Finally, I investigated the relationship between mainshock-induced stress changes and associated seismicity parameters, in particular those of the frequency-magnitude (Gutenberg-Richter) distribution and the temporal aftershock decay (Omori-Utsu law). For that purpose, I used my global data set of 127 mainshock-aftershock sequences with the calculated Coulomb Stress (ΔCFS) and the alternative receiver-independent stress metrics in the vicinity of the mainshocks and analyzed the aftershocks properties depend on the stress values. Surprisingly, the results show a clear positive correlation between the Gutenberg-Richter b-value and induced stress, contrary to expectations from laboratory experiments. This observation highlights the significance of structural heterogeneity and strength variations in seismicity patterns. Furthermore, the study demonstrates that aftershock productivity increases nonlinearly with stress, while the Omori-Utsu parameters c and p systematically decrease with increasing stress changes. These partly unexpected findings have significant implications for future estimations of aftershock hazard.
The findings in this thesis provides valuable insights into earthquake triggering mechanisms by examining the relationship between stress changes and aftershock occurrence. The results contribute to improved understanding of earthquake behavior and can aid in the development of more accurate probabilistic-seismic hazard forecasts and risk reduction strategies.
We study the effect of energy and transport policies on pollution in two developing country cities. We use a quantitative equilibrium model with choice of housing, energy use, residential location, transport mode, and energy technology. Pollution comes from commuting and residential energy use. The model parameters are calibrated to replicate key variables for two developing country cities, Maputo, Mozambique, and Yogyakarta, Indonesia. In the counterfactual simulations, we study how various transport and energy policies affect equilibrium pollution. Policies may be induce rebound effects from increasing residential energy use or switching to high emission modes or locations. In general, these rebound effects tend to be largest for subsidies to public transport or modern residential energy technology.
While the economic harm of cartels is caused by their price-increasing effect, sanctioning by courts rather targets at the underlying process of firms reaching a price-fixing agreement. This paper provides experimental evidence on the question whether such sanctioning meets the economic target, i.e., whether evidence of a collusive meeting of the firms and of the content of their communication reliably predicts subsequent prices. We find that already the mere mutual agreement to meet predicts a strong increase in prices. Conversely, express distancing from communication completely nullifies its otherwise price-increasing effect. Using machine learning, we show that communication only increases prices if it is very explicit about how the cartel plans to behave.
This thesis presents a comprehensive exploration of the application of DNA origami nanofork antennas (DONAs) in the field of spectroscopy, with a particular focus on the structural analysis of Cytochrome C (CytC) at the single-molecule level. The research encapsulates the design, optimization, and application of DONAs in enhancing the sensitivity and specificity of Raman spectroscopy, thereby offering new insights into protein structures and interactions.
The initial phase of the study involved the meticulous optimization of DNA origami structures. This process was pivotal in developing nanoscale tools that could significantly enhance the capabilities of Raman spectroscopy. The optimized DNA origami nanoforks, in both dimer and aggregate forms, demonstrated an enhanced ability to detect and analyze molecular vibrations, contributing to a more nuanced understanding of protein dynamics.
A key aspect of this research was the comparative analysis between the dimer and aggregate forms of DONAs. This comparison revealed that while both configurations effectively identified oxidation and spin states of CytC, the aggregate form offered a broader range of detectable molecular states due to its prolonged signal emission and increased number of molecules. This extended duration of signal emission in the aggregates was attributed to the collective hotspot area, enhancing overall signal stability and sensitivity.
Furthermore, the study delved into the analysis of the Amide III band using the DONA system. Observations included a transient shift in the Amide III band's frequency, suggesting dynamic alterations in the secondary structure of CytC. These shifts, indicative of transitions between different protein structures, were crucial in understanding the protein’s functional mechanisms and interactions.
The research presented in this thesis not only contributes significantly to the field of spectroscopy but also illustrates the potential of interdisciplinary approaches in biosensing. The use of DNA origami-based systems in spectroscopy has opened new avenues for research, offering a detailed and comprehensive understanding of protein structures and interactions. The insights gained from this research are expected to have lasting implications in scientific fields ranging from drug development to the study of complex biochemical pathways. This thesis thus stands as a testament to the power of integrating nanotechnology, biochemistry, and spectroscopic techniques in addressing complex scientific questions.
This study on the Messianic Jewish movement and its relationship to the Torah explores the various aspects of the relationship to the Torah on the basis of 10 interviews with selected Yeshua-believing Jews in leadership positions. The selection of interviewees results in a range of different positions typical of the movement as a whole, which overlap in many respects but are often fundamentally different and sometimes contradictory. Particular attention is paid to the theologically based, divergent and contradictory positions in an attempt to make these understandable.
After a brief introduction to the Messianic Jewish movement, aspects of the Messianic Jewish dual identity are examined and their relevance for the relationship to the Torah is demonstrated. This is followed by an overview of the forums in which Yeshua-believing Jews discuss their relationship to the Torah. The extensive bibliography at the end of the work provides an insight into a lively discussion process within the movement that is still far from complete. A briefly annotated differentiation of terms serves as an overview of the most important meanings of Torah used in the Messianic Jewish movement. Following this preliminary work, the field study is presented. A description of the research field and methodological reflections precede the interviews. In the interviews, the associations with the term Torah are first recorded and the conceptual meaning and use clarified. This already reveals some serious differences. The theological positions and understandings of Torah are presented with the biographical context and main field of influence, and the most important formative influences are named. The points on which they all agree are noted first, as they serve as a common basis. All study the written Torah and consider it, as well as the rest of the Tanakh and the writings of the New Testament in their present form, to be divinely inspired and authoritative. All have found a positive approach to the Torah according to their own definition of the term. For all of them, the written Torah and the Tanakh point to Yeshua. All agree that Yeshua did not abrogate the Torah, but fulfilled it. And all feel a responsibility as a Jew to the Torah in some way. With regard to keeping commandments, all say that no one can earn their way to heaven by doing so. G-d's faithfulness to His promises to Israel is affirmed by all, but whether the new covenant in Yeshua superseded the old covenant of Mt. Sinai, or whether it is simply added to the already existing covenant of Sinai, whether ritual commandments are to continue to be kept after Yeshua's death and resurrection and the destruction of the Temple, whether the commandments aiming at separation from the nations should continue to be kept, whether and under what conditions rabbinic halacha should be followed and what individuals do and teach in their families and communities - all this is discussed interview by interview. It becomes clear how different ways of reading and weighting key scriptures produce different positions. Just as the diversity of positions in relation to the Torah already suggests, the interview partners are divided on the question of a Messianic Jewish Halacha. But here too, the term halacha is interpreted differently by the representatives. At the end of the field study, the attempts to produce Messianic Jewish Halacha and the problems and points of criticism expressed by other interviewees are explained. The work concludes with a theological framework able to contain all the different positions and relationships to the Torah and some starting points for a possible Messianic Jewish hermeneutic theology of the Torah.
Knowledge about causal structures is crucial for decision support in various domains. For example, in discrete manufacturing, identifying the root causes of failures and quality deviations that interrupt the highly automated production process requires causal structural knowledge. However, in practice, root cause analysis is usually built upon individual expert knowledge about associative relationships. But, "correlation does not imply causation", and misinterpreting associations often leads to incorrect conclusions. Recent developments in methods for causal discovery from observational data have opened the opportunity for a data-driven examination. Despite its potential for data-driven decision support, omnipresent challenges impede causal discovery in real-world scenarios. In this thesis, we make a threefold contribution to improving causal discovery in practice.
(1) The growing interest in causal discovery has led to a broad spectrum of methods with specific assumptions on the data and various implementations. Hence, application in practice requires careful consideration of existing methods, which becomes laborious when dealing with various parameters, assumptions, and implementations in different programming languages. Additionally, evaluation is challenging due to the lack of ground truth in practice and limited benchmark data that reflect real-world data characteristics.
To address these issues, we present a platform-independent modular pipeline for causal discovery and a ground truth framework for synthetic data generation that provides comprehensive evaluation opportunities, e.g., to examine the accuracy of causal discovery methods in case of inappropriate assumptions.
(2) Applying constraint-based methods for causal discovery requires selecting a conditional independence (CI) test, which is particularly challenging in mixed discrete-continuous data omnipresent in many real-world scenarios. In this context, inappropriate assumptions on the data or the commonly applied discretization of continuous variables reduce the accuracy of CI decisions, leading to incorrect causal structures.
Therefore, we contribute a non-parametric CI test leveraging k-nearest neighbors methods and prove its statistical validity and power in mixed discrete-continuous data, as well as the asymptotic consistency when used in constraint-based causal discovery. An extensive evaluation of synthetic and real-world data shows that the proposed CI test outperforms state-of-the-art approaches in the accuracy of CI testing and causal discovery, particularly in settings with low sample sizes.
(3) To show the applicability and opportunities of causal discovery in practice, we examine our contributions in real-world discrete manufacturing use cases. For example, we showcase how causal structural knowledge helps to understand unforeseen production downtimes or adds decision support in case of failures and quality deviations in automotive body shop assembly lines.
The mobile-immobile model (MIM) has been established in geoscience in the context of contaminant transport in groundwater. Here the tracer particles effectively immobilise, e.g., due to diffusion into dead-end pores or sorption. The main idea of the MIM is to split the total particle density into a mobile and an immobile density. Individual tracers switch between the mobile and immobile state following a two-state telegraph process, i.e., the residence times in each state are distributed exponentially. In geoscience the focus lies on the breakthrough curve (BTC), which is the concentration at a fixed location over time. We apply the MIM to biological experiments with a special focus on anomalous scaling regimes of the mean squared displacement (MSD) and non-Gaussian displacement distributions. As an exemplary system, we have analysed the motion of tau proteins, that diffuse freely inside axons of neurons. Their free diffusion thereby corresponds to the mobile state of the MIM. Tau proteins stochastically bind to microtubules, which effectively immobilises the tau proteins until they unbind and continue diffusing. Long immobilisation durations compared to the mobile durations give rise to distinct non-Gaussian Laplace shaped distributions. It is accompanied by a plateau in the MSD for initially mobile tracer particles at relevant intermediate timescales. An equilibrium fraction of initially mobile tracers gives rise to non-Gaussian displacements at intermediate timescales, while the MSD remains linear at all times. In another setting bio molecules diffuse in a biosensor and transiently bind to specific receptors, where advection becomes relevant in the mobile state. The plateau in the MSD observed for the advection-free setting and long immobilisation durations persists also for the case with advection. We find a new clear regime of anomalous diffusion with non-Gaussian distributions and a cubic scaling of the MSD. This regime emerges for initially mobile and for initially immobile tracers. For an equilibrium fraction of initially mobile tracers we observe an intermittent ballistic scaling of the MSD. The long-time effective diffusion coefficient is enhanced by advection, which we physically explain with the variance of mobile durations. Finally, we generalize the MIM to incorporate arbitrary immobilisation time distributions and focus on a Mittag-Leffler immobilisation time distribution with power-law tail ~ t^(-1-mu) with 0<mu<1 and diverging mean immobilisation durations. A fit of our model to the BTC of experimental data from tracer particles in aquifers matches the BTC including the power-law tail. We use the fit parameters for plotting the displacement distributions and the MSD. We find Gaussian normal diffusion at short times and long-time power-law decay of mobile mass accompanied by anomalous diffusion at long times. The long-time diffusion is subdiffusive in the advection-free setting, while it is either subdiffusive for 0<mu<1/2 or superdiffusive for 1/2<mu<1 when advection is present. In the long-time limit we show equivalence of our model to a bi-fractional diffusion equation.
Long-term bacteria-fungi-plant associations in permafrost soils inferred from palaeometagenomics
(2024)
The arctic is warming 2 – 4 times faster than the global average, resulting in a strong feedback on northern ecosystems such as boreal forests, which cover a vast area of the high northern latitudes. With ongoing global warming, the treeline subsequently migrates northwards into tundra areas. The consequences of turning ecosystems are complex: on the one hand, boreal forests are storing large amounts of global terrestrial carbon and act as a carbon sink, dragging carbon dioxide out of the global carbon cycle, suggesting an enhanced carbon uptake with increased tree cover. On the other hand, with the establishment of trees, the albedo effect of tundra decreases, leading to enhanced soil warming. Meanwhile, permafrost thaws, releasing large amounts of previously stored carbon into the atmosphere. So far, mainly vegetation dynamics have been assessed when studying the impact of warming onto ecosystems. Most land plants are living in close symbiosis with bacterial and fungal communities, sustaining their growth in nutrient poor habitats. However, the impact of climate change on these subsoil communities alongside changing vegetation cover remains poorly understood. Therefore, a better understanding of soil community dynamics on multi millennial timescales is inevitable when addressing the development of entire ecosystems. Unravelling long-term cross-kingdom dependencies between plant, fungi, and bacteria is not only a milestone for the assessment of warming on boreal ecosystems. On top, it also is the basis for agriculture strategies to sustain society with sufficient food in a future warming world.
The first objective of this thesis was to assess ancient DNA as a proxy for reconstructing the soil microbiome (Manuscripts I, II, III, IV). Research findings across these projects enable a comprehensive new insight into the relationships of soil microorganisms to the surrounding vegetation. First, this was achieved by establishing (Manuscript I) and applying (Manuscript II) a primer pair for the selective amplification of ancient fungal DNA from lake sediment samples with the metabarcoding approach. To assess fungal and plant co-variation, the selected primer combination (ITS67, 5.8S) amplifying the ITS1 region was applied on samples from five boreal and arctic lakes. The obtained data showed that the establishment of fungal communities is impacted by warming as the functional ecological groups are shifting. Yeast and saprotroph dominance during the Late Glacial declined with warming, while the abundance of mycorrhizae and parasites increased with warming. The overall species richness was also alternating. The results were compared to shotgun sequencing data reconstructing fungi and bacteria (Manuscripts III, IV), yielding overall comparable results to the metabarcoding approach. Nonetheless, the comparison also pointed out a bias in the metabarcoding, potentially due to varying ITS lengths or copy numbers per genome.
The second objective was to trace fungus-plant interaction changes over time (Manuscripts II, III). To address this, metabarcoding targeting the ITS1 region for fungi and the chloroplast P6 loop for plants for the selective DNA amplification was applied (Manuscript II). Further, shotgun sequencing data was compared to the metabarcoding results (Manuscript III). Overall, the results between the metabarcoding and the shotgun approaches were comparable, though a bias in the metabarcoding was assumed. We demonstrated that fungal shifts were coinciding with changes in the vegetation. Yeast and lichen were mainly dominant during the Late Glacial with tundra vegetation, while warming in the Holocene lead to the expansion of boreal forests with increasing mycorrhizae and parasite abundance. Aside, we highlighted that Pinaceae establishment is dependent on mycorrhizal fungi such as Suillineae, Inocybaceae, or Hyaloscypha species also on long-term scales.
The third objective of the thesis was to assess soil community development on a temporal gradient (Manuscripts III, IV). Shotgun sequencing was applied on sediment samples from the northern Siberian lake Lama and the soil microbial community dynamics compared to ecosystem turnover. Alongside, podzolization processes from basaltic bedrock were recovered (Manuscript III). Additionally, the recovered soil microbiome was compared to shotgun data from granite and sandstone catchments (Manuscript IV, Appendix). We assessed if the establishment of the soil microbiome is dependent on the plant taxon and as such comparable between multiple geographic locations or if the community establishment is driven by abiotic soil properties and as such the bedrock area. We showed that the development of soil communities is to a great extent driven by the vegetation changes and temperature variation, while time only plays a minor role. The analyses showed general ecological similarities especially between the granite and basalt locations, while the microbiome on species-level was rather site-specific. A greater number of correlated soil taxa was detected for deep-rooting boreal taxa in comparison to grasses with shallower roots. Additionally, differences between herbaceous taxa of the late Glacial compared to taxa of the Holocene were revealed.
With this thesis, I demonstrate the necessity to investigate subsoil community dynamics on millennial time scales as it enables further understanding of long-term ecosystem as well as soil development processes and such plant establishment. Further, I trace long-term processes leading to podzolization which supports the development of applied carbon capture strategies under future global warming.
We examine how the gender of business-owners is related to the wages paid to female relative to male employees working in their firms. Using Finnish register data and employing firm fixed effects, we find that the gender pay gap is – starting from a gender pay gap of 11 to 12 percent - two to three percentage-points lower for hourly wages in female-owned firms than in male-owned firms. Results are robust to how the wage is measured, as well as to various further robustness checks. More importantly, we find substantial differences between industries. While, for instance, in the manufacturing sector, the gender of the owner plays no role for the gender pay gap, in several service sector industries, like ICT or business services, no or a negligible gender pay gap can be found, but only when firms are led by female business owners. Businesses in male ownership maintain a gender pay gap of around 10 percent also in the latter industries. With increasing firm size, the influence of the gender of the owner, however, fades. In large firms, it seems that others – firm managers – determine wages and no differences in the pay gap are observed between male- and female-owned firms.
The Arctic is the hot spot of the ongoing, global climate change. Over the last decades, near-surface temperatures in the Arctic have been rising almost four times faster than on global average. This amplified warming of the Arctic and the associated rapid changes of its environment are largely influenced by interactions between individual components of the Arctic climate system. On daily to weekly time scales, storms can have major impacts on the Arctic sea-ice cover and are thus an important part of these interactions within the Arctic climate. The sea-ice impacts of storms are related to high wind speeds, which enhance the drift and deformation of sea ice, as well as to changes in the surface energy budget in association with air mass advection, which impact the seasonal sea-ice growth and melt.
The occurrence of storms in the Arctic is typically associated with the passage of transient cyclones. Even though the above described mechanisms how storms/cyclones impact the Arctic sea ice are in principal known, there is a lack of statistical quantification of these effects. In accordance with that, the overarching objective of this thesis is to statistically quantify cyclone impacts on sea-ice concentration (SIC) in the Atlantic Arctic Ocean over the last four decades. In order to further advance the understanding of the related mechanisms, an additional objective is to separate dynamic and thermodynamic cyclone impacts on sea ice and assess their relative importance. Finally, this thesis aims to quantify recent changes in cyclone impacts on SIC. These research objectives are tackled utilizing various data sets, including atmospheric and oceanic reanalysis data as well as a coupled model simulation and a cyclone tracking algorithm.
Results from this thesis demonstrate that cyclones are significantly impacting SIC in the Atlantic Arctic Ocean from autumn to spring, while there are mostly no significant impacts in summer. The strength and the sign (SIC decreasing or SIC increasing) of the cyclone impacts strongly depends on the considered daily time scale and the region of the Atlantic Arctic Ocean. Specifically, an initial decrease in SIC (day -3 to day 0 relative to the cyclone) is found in the Greenland, Barents and Kara Seas, while SIC increases following cyclones (day 0 to day 5 relative to the cyclone) are mostly limited to the Barents and Kara Seas.
For the cold season, this results in a pronounced regional difference between overall (day -3 to day 5 relative to the cyclone) SIC-decreasing cyclone impacts in the Greenland Sea and overall SIC-increasing cyclone impacts in the Barents and Kara Seas. A cyclone case study based on a coupled model simulation indicates that both dynamic and thermodynamic mechanisms contribute to cyclone impacts on sea ice in winter. A typical pattern consisting of an initial dominance of dynamic sea-ice changes followed by enhanced thermodynamic ice growth after the cyclone passage was found. This enhanced ice growth after the cyclone passage most likely also explains the (statistical) overall SIC-increasing effects of cyclones in the Barents and Kara Seas in the cold season.
Significant changes in cyclone impacts on SIC over the last four decades have emerged throughout the year. These recent changes are strongly varying from region to region and month to month. The strongest trends in cyclone impacts on SIC are found in autumn in the Barents and Kara Seas. Here, the magnitude of destructive cyclone impacts on SIC has approximately doubled over the last four decades. The SIC-increasing effects following the cyclone passage have particularly weakened in the Barents Sea in autumn. As a consequence, previously existing overall SIC-increasing cyclone impacts in this region in autumn have recently disappeared. Generally, results from this thesis show that changes in the state of the sea-ice cover (decrease in mean sea-ice concentration and thickness) and near-surface air temperature are most important for changed cyclone impacts on SIC, while changes in cyclone properties (i.e. intensity) do not play a significant role.