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While estimated numbers of past and future climate migrants are alarming, the growing empirical evidence suggests that the association between adverse climate-related events and migration is not universally positive. This dissertation seeks to advance our understanding of when and how climate migration emerges by analyzing heterogeneous climatic influences on migration in low- and middle-income countries. To this end, it draws on established economic theories of migration, datasets from physical and social sciences, causal inference techniques and approaches from systematic literature review. In three of its five chapters, I estimate causal effects of processes of climate change on inequality and migration in India and Sub-Saharan Africa. By employing interaction terms and by analyzing sub-samples of data, I explore how these relationships differ for various segments of the population. In the remaining two chapters, I present two systematic literature reviews. First, I undertake a comprehensive meta-regression analysis of the econometric climate migration literature to summarize general climate migration patterns and explain the conflicting findings. Second, motivated by the broad range of approaches in the field, I examine the literature from a methodological perspective to provide best practice guidelines for studying climate migration empirically. Overall, the evidence from this dissertation shows that climatic influences on human migration are highly heterogeneous. Whether adverse climate-related impacts materialize in migration depends on the socio-economic characteristics of the individual households, such as wealth, level of education, agricultural dependence or access to adaptation technologies and insurance. For instance, I show that while adverse climatic shocks are generally associated with an increase in migration in rural India, they reduce migration in the agricultural context of Sub-Saharan Africa, where the average wealth levels are much lower so that households largely cannot afford the upfront costs of moving. I find that unlike local climatic shocks which primarily enhance internal migration to cities and hence accelerate urbanization, shocks transmitted via agricultural producer prices increase migration to neighboring countries, likely due to the simultaneous decrease in real income in nearby urban areas. These findings advance our current understanding by showing when and how economic agents respond to climatic events, thus providing explicit contexts and mechanisms of climate change effects on migration in the future. The resulting collection of findings can guide policy interventions to avoid or mitigate any present and future welfare losses from climate change-related migration choices.
Next-generation sequencing methods provide comprehensive data for the analysis of structural and functional analysis of the genome. The draft genomes with low contig number and high N50 value can give insight into the structure of the genome as well as provide information on the annotation of the genome. In this study, we designed a pipeline that can be used to assemble prokaryotic draft genomes with low number of contigs and high N50 value. We aimed to use combination of two de novo assembly tools (SPAdes and IDBA-Hybrid) and evaluate the impact of this approach on the quality metrics of the assemblies. The followed pipeline was tested with the raw sequence data with short reads (< 300) for a total of 10 species from four different genera. To obtain the final draft genomes, we firstly assembled the sequences using SPAdes to find closely related organism using the extracted 16 s rRNA from it. IDBA-Hybrid assembler was used to obtain the second assembly data using the closely related organism genome. SPAdes assembler tool was implemented using the second assembly, produced by IDBA-hybrid as a hint. The results were evaluated using QUAST and BUSCO. The pipeline was successful for the reduction of the contig numbers and increasing the N50 statistical values in the draft genome assemblies while preserving the coverage of the draft genomes.
Extreme value statistics is a popular and frequently used tool to model the occurrence of large earthquakes. The problem of poor statistics arising from rare events is addressed by taking advantage of the validity of general statistical properties in asymptotic regimes. In this note, I argue that the use of extreme value statistics for the purpose of practically modeling the tail of the frequency-magnitude distribution of earthquakes can produce biased and thus misleading results because it is unknown to what degree the tail of the true distribution is sampled by data. Using synthetic data allows to quantify this bias in detail. The implicit assumption that the true M-max is close to the maximum observed magnitude M-max,M-observed restricts the class of the potential models a priori to those with M-max = M-max,M-observed + Delta M with an increment Delta M approximate to 0.5... 1.2. This corresponds to the simple heuristic method suggested by Wheeler (2009) and labeled :M-max equals M-obs plus an increment." The incomplete consideration of the entire model family for the frequency-magnitude distribution neglects, however, the scenario of a large so far unobserved earthquake.
Models are useful tools for understanding and predicting ecological patterns and processes. Under ongoing climate and biodiversity change, they can greatly facilitate decision-making in conservation and restoration and help designing adequate management strategies for an uncertain future. Here, we review the use of spatially explicit models for decision support and to identify key gaps in current modelling in conservation and restoration. Of 650 reviewed publications, 217 publications had a clear management application and were included in our quantitative analyses. Overall, modelling studies were biased towards static models (79%), towards the species and population level (80%) and towards conservation (rather than restoration) applications (71%). Correlative niche models were the most widely used model type. Dynamic models as well as the gene-to-individual level and the community-to-ecosystem level were underrepresented, and explicit cost optimisation approaches were only used in 10% of the studies. We present a new model typology for selecting models for animal conservation and restoration, characterising model types according to organisational levels, biological processes of interest and desired management applications. This typology will help to more closely link models to management goals. Additionally, future efforts need to overcome important challenges related to data integration, model integration and decision-making. We conclude with five key recommendations, suggesting that wider usage of spatially explicit models for decision support can be achieved by 1) developing a toolbox with multiple, easier-to-use methods, 2) improving calibration and validation of dynamic modelling approaches and 3) developing best-practise guidelines for applying these models. Further, more robust decision-making can be achieved by 4) combining multiple modelling approaches to assess uncertainty, and 5) placing models at the core of adaptive management. These efforts must be accompanied by long-term funding for modelling and monitoring, and improved communication between research and practise to ensure optimal conservation and restoration outcomes.
Portal Wissen = Together
(2022)
What makes humans human – and what distinguishes them from other creatures on Earth – has long been fervently discussed and is still being discussed today. “Homo sapiens”, the scientific self-description of our species, is already the characterization as an “understanding, wise, knowledgeable human being”. It could be argued that we owe this additional knowledge to our trait of (basically) feeling particularly attached to our equals. We are what we are, above all, and perhaps even exclusively: together. The development that eventually turned communities into societies in the course of which culture and knowledge emerged, could well be told as a story of more and less togetherness. People were always successful when they lived with instead of against each other. Things that were much admired later came into being when people worked together, knowledge that made history as progress was developed by minds that came into a conversation.
It is therefore all the more surprising that this “recipe for success” is being pushed into the background at a time when it is needed more than ever. As a result of the Corona pandemic, we are living in a time in which the world is faced with a – literally – all-encompassing task which it can only overcome together, as has already been said many times. And yet, many people are primarily concerned about their own well-being in various ways – not infrequently without reflecting that the well-being of many others, and possibly ultimately even their own, suffers as a consequence. When there is a need for more togetherness while there is a lot of talk about division, it becomes clear that the success of togetherness is not a foregone conclusion: If we want to achieve something together, we must always keep talking about the goals and the way to get there.
For this issue, we have collected what people can achieve together and how research is trying to fathom the “secret of togetherness” in many ways. We visited a team of environmental scientists who are developing forest gardens together with committed residents – as green oases in the middle of cities. We took a first look at the prototype of a national education platform that will bundle all kinds of digital learning in the future. We also present a model project that aims to help teachers and students prevent hate speech. Last but not least, the issue presents a small selection of various collaborations across disciplinary and national borders: We show how researchers from law and political science are working together to examine the ups and downs of international law, and why religious studies scholars from Potsdam and Iraq benefit from each other.
Of course, the issue also brings together the entire spectrum of research at the University of Potsdam, we promise! We found out how heavy rain turn into flash floods and how to prepare for such events. We interviewed a migration researcher and visited a geoscientist who is drawn to mountains and valleys alike. It’s about – often unwritten – “body rules” in everyday life, the exploration of our gaze with the help of artificial intelligence, 33 answers full of complexity, and about mathematics at infinity. Enough words. Read for yourself – alone or together. Just as you like!
Portal Wissen = Humans
(2022)
When humans write and talk about humans, you notice right away: It’s their favorite topic. It is not only that everyone (usually) is closest to themselves. As a species, Homo sapiens also attaches distinct importance to themselves. Aristotle was concerned about the order of things and ranked the human being – as the seemingly most complicated one – at the “very top.” The book of Genesis in the Bible seems to take this up, calling the human being in a way the final point or “pride of creation” who should “rule” over Earth and all living beings. An impressive story, but it did not stand the test of time. The theory of evolution changed the pyramid into a far-branched tree and the human being to a little branch among many others. What has remained is that humans are not so easy to understand, especially to themselves. Or, as Marie von Ebner-Eschenbach said, “The simplest human is still a very complicated being.”
This and the ongoing interest of humans in themselves ensure that many sciences also deal with him, her, or us, again and again and from every conceivable angle. Medicine and linguistics, educational research and psychology, history and sociology – many disciplines revolve around human(kind) and their actions. Therefore, it is hardly difficult to take a small exemplary human research journey through the University of Potsdam with this issue of “Portal Wissen.” We begin with a visit to the BabyLAB, where you can rewardingly watch even the youngest children learn languages. An economist points out that differences between men and women on their paychecks are anything but acceptable, and a start-up team showed us an app that can help you do something against dementia before it’s too late.
Besides, it should have been clear long ago: If we want to understand ourselves, we must always look at what is surrounding us. This means the social interactions that challenge and shape us on both a small and large scale. That’s why we talked to historians who are investigating corruption in the ancient world. But it also includes the environment, both living and non-living, on which we leave our mark and which, in turn, constantly influences us. A specialist in ancient DNA, for example, is investigating whether even Neanderthals left an ecological footprint, while an ecologist is searching for the consequences of climate change for biodiversity in Africa. And a media scientist has spent years analyzing how various images can help communicate scientific findings on climate change in such a way that they are understood.
We have not forgotten that the coronavirus continues to influence both our lives and research: A psychologist is working with partners throughout Germany to study how children and young people with chronic diseases get through the pandemic.
In addition, we naturally do not leave aside the diversity of research – created by humans – at the University of Potsdam: We introduce one of Germany’s best gravitational wave researcher and talk about the role of mathematics in earthquake research. Last but not least, we had the work of the new research center for digital data law explained to us.
This paper consists of two parts: In the first part, some of the challenges with which the Internationaal Criminal Court is currently confronted are being presented. First of all, the article will describe the current state of the International Criminal Court and the Rome Statue. Afterwards, the article analyses the Court’s efforts to deal with cases against third-country nationals and the challenges it is facing in that regard. In addition, the Court’s case law will be analyzed in order to determine an increasing ‘emancipation’ of the case law of the International Criminal Court from international humanitarian law. The second part of the paper will briefly discuss the role of domestic international criminal law and domestic courts in the further development and enforcement of international criminal law. As an example of the role that domestic courts may have in clarifying classic issues in international law, the judgment of the German Supreme Court of January 28, 2021 (3 StR 564/19), which deals with the status of costumary international law on functional immunity of State officials before domestic courts, shall be assessed.