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The northward movement and collision of the Arabian plate with Eurasia generates compressive stresses and resulting shortening in Iran. Within the Alborz Mountains, North Iran, a complex and not well understood system of strike-slip and thrust faults accomodates a fundamental part of the NNE-SSW oriented shortening. On 28th of May 2004 the Mw 6.3 Baladeh earthquake hit the north-central Alborz Mountains. It is one of the rare and large events in this region in modern time and thus a seldom chance to study earthquake mechanisms and the local ongoing deformation processes. It also demonstrated the high vulnerability of this densily populated region.
The use of nano zerovalent iron (nZVI) for environmental remediation is a promising new technique for in situ remediation. Due to its high surface area and high reactivity, nZVI is able to dechlorinate organic contaminants and render them harmless. Limited mobility, due to fast aggregation and sedimentation of nZVI, limits the capability for source and plume remediation. Carbo-Iron is a newly developed material consisting of activated carbon particles (d50 = 0,8 µm) that are plated with nZVI particles. These particles combine the mobility of activated carbon and the reactivity of nZVI. This paper presents the first results of the transport experiments.
Development of techniques for earthquake microzonation studies in different urban environment
(2010)
The proliferation of megacities in many developing countries, and their location in areas where they are exposed to a high risk from large earthquakes, coupled with a lack of preparation, demonstrates the requirement for improved capabilities in hazard assessment, as well as the rapid adjustment and development of land-use planning. In particular, within the context of seismic hazard assessment, the evaluation of local site effects and their influence on the spatial distribution of ground shaking generated by an earthquake plays an important role. It follows that the carrying out of earthquake microzonation studies, which aim at identify areas within the urban environment that are expected to respond in a similar way to a seismic event, are essential to the reliable risk assessment of large urban areas. Considering the rate at which many large towns in developing countries that are prone to large earthquakes are growing, their seismic microzonation has become mandatory. Such activities are challenging and techniques suitable for identifying site effects within such contexts are needed. In this dissertation, I develop techniques for investigating large-scale urban environments that aim at being non-invasive, cost-effective and quickly deployable. These peculiarities allow one to investigate large areas over a relative short time frame, with a spatial sampling resolution sufficient to provide reliable microzonation. Although there is a negative trade-off between the completeness of available information and extent of the investigated area, I attempt to mitigate this limitation by combining two, what I term layers, of information: in the first layer, the site effects at a few calibration points are well constrained by analyzing earthquake data or using other geophysical information (e.g., shear-wave velocity profiles); in the second layer, the site effects over a larger areal coverage are estimated by means of single-station noise measurements. The microzonation is performed in terms of problem-dependent quantities, by considering a proxy suitable to link information from the first layer to the second one. In order to define the microzonation approach proposed in this work, different methods for estimating site effects have been combined and tested in Potenza (Italy), where a considerable amount of data was available. In particular, the horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio computed for seismic noise recorded at different sites has been used as a proxy to combine the two levels of information together and to create a microzonation map in terms of spectral intensity ratio (SIR). In the next step, I applied this two-layer approach to Istanbul (Turkey) and Bishkek (Kyrgyzstan). A similar hybrid approach, i.e., combining earthquake and noise data, has been used for the microzonation of these two different urban environments. For both cities, after having calibrated the fundamental frequencies of resonance estimated from seismic noise with those obtained by analysing earthquakes (first layer), a fundamental frequency map has been computed using the noise measurements carried out within the town (second layer). By applying this new approach, maps of the fundamental frequency of resonance for Istanbul and Bishkek have been published for the first time. In parallel, a microzonation map in terms of SIR has been incorporated into a risk scenario for the Potenza test site by means of a dedicated regression between spectral intensity (SI) and macroseismic intensity (EMS). The scenario study confirms the importance of site effects within the risk chain. In fact, their introduction into the scenario led to an increase of about 50% in estimates of the number of buildings that would be partially or totally collapsed. Last, but not least, considering that the approach developed and applied in this work is based on measurements of seismic noise, their reliability has been assessed. A theoretical model describing the self-noise curves of different instruments usually adopted in microzonation studies (e.g., those used in Potenza, Istanbul and Bishkek) have been considered and compared with empirical data recorded in Cologne (Germany) and Gubbio (Italy). The results show that, depending on the geological and environmental conditions, the instrumental noise could severely bias the results obtained by recording and analysing ambient noise. Therefore, in this work I also provide some guidelines for measuring seismic noise.
Indonesia is one of the countries most prone to natural hazards. Complex interaction of several tectonic plates with high relative velocities leads to approximately two earthquakes with magnitude Mw>7 every year, being more than 15% of the events worldwide. Earthquakes with magnitude above 9 happen far more infrequently, but with catastrophic effects. The most severe consequences thereby arise from tsunamis triggered by these subduction-related earthquakes, as the Sumatra-Andaman event in 2004 showed. In order to enable efficient tsunami early warning, which includes the estimation of wave heights and arrival times, it is necessary to combine different types of real-time sensor data with numerical models of earthquake sources and tsunami propagation. This thesis was created as a result of the GITEWS project (German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System). It is based on five research papers and manuscripts. Main project-related task was the development of a database containing realistic earthquake scenarios for the Sunda Arc. This database provides initial conditions for tsunami propagation modeling used by the simulation system at the early warning center. An accurate discretization of the subduction geometry, consisting of 25x150 subfaults was constructed based on seismic data. Green’s functions, representing the deformational response to unit dip- and strike slip at the subfaults, were computed using a layered half-space approach. Different scaling relations for earthquake dimensions and slip distribution were implemented. Another project-related task was the further development of the ‘GPS-shield’ concept. It consists of a constellation of near field GPS-receivers, which are shown to be very valuable for tsunami early warning. The major part of this thesis is related to the geophysical interpretation of GPS data. Coseismic surface displacements caused by the 2004 Sumatra earthquake are inverted for slip at the fault. The effect of different Earth layer models is tested, favoring continental structure. The possibility of splay faulting is considered and shown to be a secondary order effect in respect to tsunamigenity for this event. Tsunami models based on source inversions are compared to satellite radar altimetry observations. Postseismic GPS time series are used to test a wide parameter range of uni- and biviscous rheological models of the asthenosphere. Steady-state Maxwell rheology is shown to be incompatible with near-field GPS data, unless large afterslip, amounting to more than 10% of the coseismic moment is assumed. In contrast, transient Burgers rheology is in agreement with data without the need for large aseismic afterslip. Comparison to postseismic geoid observation by the GRACE satellites reveals that even with afterslip, the model implementing Maxwell rheology results in amplitudes being too small, and thus supports a biviscous asthenosphere. A simple approach based on the assumption of quasi-static deformation propagation is introduced and proposed for inversion of coseismic near-field GPS time series. Application of this approach to observations from the 2004 Sumatra event fails to quantitatively reconstruct the rupture propagation, since a priori conditions are not fulfilled in this case. However, synthetic tests reveal the feasibility of such an approach for fast estimation of rupturing properties.
Situated in an active tectonic region, Santiago de Chile, the country´s capital with more than six million inhabitants, faces tremendous earthquake hazard. Macroseismic data for the 1985 Valparaiso and the 2010 Maule events show large variations in the distribution of damage to buildings within short distances indicating strong influence of local sediments and the shape of the sediment-bedrock interface on ground motion. Therefore, a temporary seismic network was installed in the urban area for recording earthquake activity, and a study was carried out aiming to estimate site amplification derived from earthquake data and ambient noise. The analysis of earthquake data shows significant dependence on the local geological structure with regards to amplitude and duration. Moreover, the analysis of noise spectral ratios shows that they can provide a lower bound in amplitude for site amplification and, since no variability in terms of time and amplitude is observed, that it is possible to map the fundamental resonance frequency of the soil for a 26 km x 12 km area in the northern part of the Santiago de Chile basin. By inverting the noise spectral rations, local shear wave velocity profiles could be derived under the constraint of the thickness of the sedimentary cover which had previously been determined by gravimetric measurements. The resulting 3D model was derived by interpolation between the single shear wave velocity profiles and shows locally good agreement with the few existing velocity profile data, but allows the entire area, as well as deeper parts of the basin, to be represented in greater detail. The wealth of available data allowed further to check if any correlation between the shear wave velocity in the uppermost 30 m (vs30) and the slope of topography, a new technique recently proposed by Wald and Allen (2007), exists on a local scale. While one lithology might provide a greater scatter in the velocity values for the investigated area, almost no correlation between topographic gradient and calculated vs30 exists, whereas a better link is found between vs30 and the local geology. When comparing the vs30 distribution with the MSK intensities for the 1985 Valparaiso event it becomes clear that high intensities are found where the expected vs30 values are low and over a thick sedimentary cover. Although this evidence cannot be generalized for all possible earthquakes, it indicates the influence of site effects modifying the ground motion when earthquakes occur well outside of the Santiago basin. Using the attained knowledge on the basin characteristics, simulations of strong ground motion within the Santiago Metropolitan area were carried out by means of the spectral element technique. The simulation of a regional event, which has also been recorded by a dense network installed in the city of Santiago for recording aftershock activity following the 27 February 2010 Maule earthquake, shows that the model is capable to realistically calculate ground motion in terms of amplitude, duration, and frequency and, moreover, that the surface topography and the shape of the sediment bedrock interface strongly modify ground motion in the Santiago basin. An examination on the dependency of ground motion on the hypocenter location for a hypothetical event occurring along the active San Ramón fault, which is crossing the eastern outskirts of the city, shows that the unfavorable interaction between fault rupture, radiation mechanism, and complex geological conditions in the near-field may give rise to large values of peak ground velocity and therefore considerably increase the level of seismic risk for Santiago de Chile.
The Antarctic plays an important role in the global climate system. On the one hand, the Antarctic Ice Sheet is the largest freshwater reservoir on Earth. On the other hand, a major proportion of the global bottom-water formation takes place in Antarctic shelf regions, forcing the global thermohaline circulation. The main goal of this dissertation is to provide new insights into the dynamics and stability of the EAIS during the Quaternary. Additionally, variations in the activity of bottom-water formation and their causes are investigated. The dissertation is a German contribution to the International Polar Year 2007/ 2008 and was funded by the ‘Deutsche Forschungsgesellschaft’ (DFG) within the scope of priority program 1158 ‘Antarctic research with comparative studies in Arctic ice regions’. During RV Polarstern expedition ANT-XXIII/9, glaciomarine sediments were recovered from the Prydz Bay-Kerguelen region. Prydz Bay is a key region for the study of East EAIS dynamics, as 16% of the EAIS are drained through the Lambert Glacier into the bay. Thereby, the glacier transports sediment into Prydz Bay which is then further distributed by calving icebergs or by current transport. The scientific approach of this dissertation is the reconstruction of past glaciomarine environments to infer on the response of the Lambert Glacier-Amery Ice Shelf system to climate shifts during the Quaternary. To characterize the depositional setting, sedimentological methods are used and statistical analyses are applied. Mineralogical and (bio)geochemical methods provide a means to reconstruct sediment provenances and to provide evidence on changes in the primary production in the surface water column. Age-depth models were constructed based on palaeomagnetic and palaeointensity measurements, diatom stratigraphy and radiocarbon dating. Sea-bed surface sediments in the investigation area show distinct variations in terms of their clay minerals and heavy-mineral assemblages. Considerable differences in the mineralogical composition of surface sediments are determined on the continental shelf. Clay minerals as well as heavy minerals provide useful parameters to differentiate between sediments which originated from erosion of crystalline rocks and sediments originating from Permo-Triassic deposits. Consequently, mineralogical parameters can be used to reconstruct the provenance of current-transported and ice-rafted material. The investigated sediment cores cover the time intervals of the last 1.4 Ma (continental slope) and the last 12.8 cal. ka BP (MacRobertson shelf). The sediment deposits were mainly influenced by glacial and oceanographic processes and further by biological activity (continental shelf), meltwater input and possibly gravitational transport. Sediments from the continental slope document two major deglacial events: the first deglaciation is associated with the mid-Pleistocene warming recognized around the Antarctic. In Prydz Bay, the Lambert Glacier-Amery Ice Shelf retreated far to the south and high biogenic productivity commenced or biogenic remains were better preserved due to increased sedimentation rates. Thereafter, stable glacial conditions continued until 400 - 500 ka BP. Calving of icebergs was restricted to the western part of the Lambert Glacier. The deeper bathymetry in this area allows for floating ice shelf even during times of decreased sea-level. Between 400 - 500 ka BP and the last interglacial (marine isotope stage 5) the glacier was more dynamic. During or shortly after the last interglacial the LAIS retreated again due to sea-level rise of 6 - 9 m. Both deglacial events correlate with a reduction in the thickness of ice masses in the Prince Charles Mountains. It indicates that a disintegration of the Amery Ice Shelf possibly led to increased drainage of ice masses from the Prydz Bay hinterland. A new end-member modelling algorithm was successfully applied on sediments from the MacRobertson shelf used to unmix the sand grain size fractions sorted by current activity and ice transport, respectively. Ice retreat on MacRobertson Shelf commenced 12.8 cal. ka BP and ended around 5.5 cal. ka BP. During the Holocene, strong fluctuations of the bottomwater activity were observed, probably related to variations of sea-ice formation in the Cape Darnley polynya. Increased activity of bottom-water flow was reconstructed at transitions from warm to cool conditions, whereas bottom-water activity receded during the mid- Holocene climate optimum. It can be concluded that the Lambert Glacier-Amery Ice Shelf system was relatively stable in terms of climate variations during the Quaternary. In contrast, bottom-water formation due to polynya activity was very sensitive to changes in atmospheric forcing and should gain more attention in future research.
Spatial and temporal temperature and moisture patterns across the Tibetan Plateau are very complex. The onset and magnitude of the Holocene climate optimum in the Asian monsoon realm, in particular, is a subject of considerable debate as this time period is often used as an analogue for recent global warming. In the light of contradictory inferences regarding past climate and environmental change on the Tibetan Plateau, I have attempted to explain mismatches in the timing and magnitude of change. Therefore, I analysed the temporal variation of fossil pollen and diatom spectra and the geochemical record from palaeo-ecological records covering different time scales (late Quaternary and the last 200 years) from two core regions in the NE and SE Tibetan Plateau. For interpretation purposes I combined my data with other available palaeo-ecological data to set up corresponding aquatic and terrestrial proxy data sets of two lake pairs and two sets of sites. I focused on the direct comparison of proxies representing lacustrine response to climate signals (e.g., diatoms, ostracods, geochemical record) and proxies representing changes in the terrestrial environment (i.e., terrestrial pollen), in order to asses whether the lake and its catchments respond at similar times and magnitudes to environmental changes. Therefore, I introduced the established numerical technique procrustes rotation as a new approach in palaeoecology to quantitatively compare raw data of any two sedimentary records of interest in order to assess their degree of concordance. Focusing on the late Quaternary, sediment cores from two lakes (Kuhai Lake 35.3°N; 99.2°E; 4150 m asl; and Koucha Lake 34.0°N; 97.2°E; 4540 m asl) on the semi-arid northeastern Tibetan Plateau were analysed to identify post-glacial vegetation and environmental changes, and to investigate the responses of lake ecosystems to such changes. Based on the pollen record, five major vegetation and climate changes could be identified: (1) A shift from alpine desert to alpine steppe indicates a change from cold, dry conditions to warmer and more moist conditions at 14.8 cal. ka BP, (2) alpine steppe with tundra elements points to conditions of higher effective moisture and a stepwise warming climate at 13.6 cal. ka BP, (3) the appearance of high-alpine meadow vegetation indicates a further change towards increased moisture, but with colder temperatures, at 7.0 cal. ka BP, (4) the reoccurrence of alpine steppe with desert elements suggests a return to a significantly colder and drier phase at 6.3 cal. ka BP, and (5) the establishment of alpine steppe-meadow vegetation indicates a change back to relatively moist conditions at 2.2 cal. ka BP. To place the reconstructed climate inferences from the NE Tibetan Plateau into the context of Holocene moisture evolution across the Tibetan Plateau, I applied a five-scale moisture index and average link clustering to all available continuous pollen and non-pollen palaeoclimate records from the Tibetan Plateau, in an attempt to detect coherent regional and temporal patterns of moisture evolution on the Plateau. However, no common temporal or spatial pattern of moisture evolution during the Holocene could be detected, which can be assigned to the complex responses of different proxies to environmental changes in an already very heterogeneous mountain landscape, where minor differences in elevation can result in marked variations in microenvironments. Focusing on the past 200 years, I analysed the sedimentary records (LC6 Lake 29.5°N, 94.3°E, 4132 m asl; and Wuxu Lake 29.9°N, 101.1°E, 3705 m asl) from the southeastern Tibetan Plateau. I found that despite presumed significant temperature increases over that period, pollen and diatom records from the SE Tibetan Plateau reveal only very subtle changes throughout their profiles. The compositional species turnover investigated over the last 200 years appears relatively low in comparison to the species reorganisations during the Holocene. The results indicate that climatically induced ecological thresholds are not yet crossed, but that human activity has an increasing influence, particularly on the terrestrial ecosystem. Forest clearances and reforestation have not caused forest decline in our study area, but a conversion of natural forests to semi-natural secondary forests. The results from the numerical proxy comparison of the two sets of two pairs of Tibetan lakes indicate that the use of different proxies and the work with palaeo-ecological records from different lake types can cause deviant stories of inferred change. Irrespective of the timescale (Holocene or last 200 years) or region (SE or NE Tibetan Plateau) analysed, the agreement in terms of the direction, timing, and magnitude of change between the corresponding terrestrial data sets is generally better than the match between the corresponding lacustrine data sets, suggesting that lacustrine proxies may partly be influenced by in-lake or local catchment processes whereas the terrestrial proxy reflects a more regional climatic signal. The current disaccord on coherent temporal and spatial climate patterns on the Tibetan Plateau can partly be ascribed to the complexity of proxy response and lake systems on the Tibetan Plateau. Therefore, a multi-proxy, multi-site approach is important in order to gain a reliable climate interpretation for the complex mountain landscape of the Tibetan Plateau.
The seismicity of the Dead Sea fault zone (DSFZ) during the last two millennia is characterized by a number of damaging and partly devastating earthquakes. These events pose a considerable seismic hazard and seismic risk to Syria, Lebanon, Palestine, Jordan, and Israel. The occurrence rates for large earthquakes along the DSFZ show indications to temporal changes in the long-term view. The aim of this thesis is to find out, if the occurrence rates of large earthquakes (Mw ≥ 6) in different parts of the DSFZ are time-dependent and how. The results are applied to probabilistic seismic hazard assessments (PSHA) in the DSFZ and neighboring areas. Therefore, four time-dependent statistical models (distributions), including Weibull, Gamma, Lognormal and Brownian Passage Time (BPT), are applied beside the exponential distribution (Poisson process) as the classical time-independent model. In order to make sure, if the earthquake occurrence rate follows a unimodal or a multimodal form, a nonparametric bootstrap test of multimodality has been done. A modified method of weighted Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) is applied to estimate the parameters of the models. For the multimodal cases, an Expectation Maximization (EM) method is used in addition to the MLE method. The selection of the best model is done by two methods; the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) as well as a modified Kolmogorov-Smirnov goodness-of-fit test. Finally, the confidence intervals of the estimated parameters corresponding to the candidate models are calculated, using the bootstrap confidence sets. In this thesis, earthquakes with Mw ≥ 6 along the DSFZ, with a width of about 20 km and inside 29.5° ≤ latitude ≤ 37° are considered as the dataset. The completeness of this dataset is calculated since 300 A.D. The DSFZ has been divided into three sub zones; the southern, the central and the northern sub zone respectively. The central and the northern sub zones have been investigated but not the southern sub zone, because of the lack of sufficient data. The results of the thesis for the central part of the DSFZ show that the earthquake occurrence rate does not significantly pursue a multimodal form. There is also no considerable difference between the time-dependent and time-independent models. Since the time-independent model is easier to interpret, the earthquake occurrence rate in this sub zone has been estimated under the exponential distribution assumption (Poisson process) and will be considered as time-independent with the amount of 9.72 * 10-3 events/year. The northern part of the DSFZ is a special case, where the last earthquake has occurred in 1872 (about 137 years ago). However, the mean recurrence time of Mw ≥ 6 events in this area is about 51 years. Moreover, about 96 percent of the observed earthquake inter-event times (the time between two successive earthquakes) in the dataset regarding to this sub zone are smaller than 137 years. Therefore, it is a zone with an overdue earthquake. The results for this sub zone verify that the earthquake occurrence rate is strongly time-dependent, especially shortly after an earthquake occurrence. A bimodal Weibull-Weibull model has been selected as the best fit for this sub zone. The earthquake occurrence rate, corresponding to the selected model, is a smooth function of time and reveals two clusters within the time after an earthquake occurrence. The first cluster begins right after an earthquake occurrence, lasts about 80 years, and is explicitly time-dependent. The occurrence rate, regarding to this cluster, is considerably lower right after an earthquake occurrence, increases strongly during the following ten years and reaches its maximum about 0.024 events/year, then decreases over the next 70 years to its minimum about 0.0145 events/year. The second cluster begins 80 years after an earthquake occurrence and lasts until the next earthquake occurs. The earthquake occurrence rate, corresponding to this cluster, increases extremely slowly, such as it can be considered as an almost constant rate about 0.015 events/year. The results are applied to calculate the time-dependent PSHA in the northern part of the DSFZ and neighbouring areas.
The East African Plateau provides a spectacular example of geodynamic plateau uplift, active continental rifting, and associated climatic forcing. It is an integral part of the East African Rift System and has an average elevation of approximately 1,000 m. Its location coincides with a negative Bouguer gravity anomaly with a semi-circular shape, closely related to a mantle plume, which influences the Cenozoic crustal development since its impingement in Eocene-Oligocene time. The uplift of the East African Plateau, preceding volcanism, and rifting formed an important orographic barrier and tectonically controlled environment, which is profoundly influenced by climate driven processes. Its location within the equatorial realm supports recently proposed hypotheses, that topographic changes in this region must be considered as the dominant forcing factor influencing atmospheric circulation patterns and rainfall distribution. The uplift of this region has therefore often been associated with fundamental climatic and environmental changes in East Africa and adjacent regions. While the far-reaching influence of the plateau uplift is widely accepted, the timing and the magnitude of the uplift are ambiguous and are still subject to ongoing discussion. This dilemma stems from the lack of datable, geomorphically meaningful reference horizons that could record surface uplift. In order to quantify the amount of plateau uplift and to find evidence for the existence of significant relief along the East African Plateau prior to rifting, I analyzed and modeled one of the longest terrestrial lava flows; the 300-km-long Yatta phonolite flow in Kenya. This lava flow is 13.5 Ma old and originated in the region that now corresponds to the eastern rift shoulders. The phonolitic flow utilized an old riverbed that once drained the eastern flank of the plateau. Due to differential erosion this lava flow now forms a positive relief above the parallel-flowing Athi River, which is mimicking the course of the paleo-river. My approach is a lava-flow modeling, based on an improved composition and temperature dependent method to parameterize the flow of an arbitrary lava in a rectangular-shaped channel. The essential growth pattern is described by a one-dimensional model, in which Newtonian rheological flow advance is governed by the development of viscosity and/or velocity in the internal parts of the lava-flow front. Comparing assessments of different magma compositions reveal that length-dominated, channelized lava flows are characterized by high effusion rates, rapid emplacement under approximately isothermal conditions, and laminar flow. By integrating the Yatta lava flow dimensions and the covered paleo-topography (slope angle) into the model, I was able to determine the pre-rift topography of the East African Plateau. The modeling results yield a pre-rift slope of at least 0.2°, suggesting that the lava flow must have originated at a minimum elevation of 1,400 m. Hence, high topography in the region of the present-day Kenya Rift must have existed by at least 13.5 Ma. This inferred mid-Miocene uplift coincides with the two-step expansion of grasslands, as well as important radiation and speciation events in tropical Africa. Accordingly, the combination of my results regarding the Yatta lava flow emplacement history, its location, and its morphologic character, validates it as a suitable “paleo-tiltmeter” and has thus to be considered as an important topographic and volcanic feature for the topographic evolution in East Africa.