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A fine-grained slope that exhibits slow movement rates was investigated to understand how geohydrological processes contribute to a consecutive development of mass movements in the Vorarlberg Alps, Austria. For that purpose intensive hydrometeorological, hydrogeological and geotechnical observations as well as surveying of surface movement rates were conducted during 1998–2001. Subsurface water dynamics at the creeping slope turned out to be dominated by a three-dimensional pressure system. The pressure reaction is triggered by fast infiltration of surface water and subsequent lateral water flow in the south-western part of the hillslope. The related pressure signal was shown to propagate further downhill, causing fast reactions of the piezometric head at 5Ð5 m depth on a daily time scale. The observed pressure reactions might belong to a temporary hillslope water body that extends further downhill. The related buoyancy forces could be one of the driving forces for the mass movement. A physically based hydrological model was adopted to model simultaneously surface and subsurface water dynamics including evapotranspiration and runoff production. It was possible to reproduce surface runoff and observed pressure reactions in principle. However, as soil hydraulic functions were only estimated on pedotransfer functions, a quantitative comparison between observed and simulated subsurface dynamics is not feasible. Nevertheless, the results suggest that it is possible to reconstruct important spatial structures based on sparse observations in the field which allow reasonable simulations with a physically based hydrological model. Copyright 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. KEY WORDS rainfall-induced landslides; soil creep; hydrological modelling; Vorarlberg; Austria; pressure propagation
We analyse different Gibbsian properties of interactive Brownian diffusions X indexed by the lattice $Z^{d} : X = (X_{i}(t), i ∈ Z^{d}, t ∈ [0, T], 0 < T < +∞)$. In a first part, these processes are characterized as Gibbs states on path spaces of the form $C([0, T],R)Z^{d}$. In a second part, we study the Gibbsian character on $R^{Z}^{d}$ of $v^{t}$, the law at time t of the infinite-dimensional diffusion X(t), when the initial law $v = v^{0}$ is Gibbsian.
The aim of this paper is to demonstrate that nonparametric smoothing methods for estimating functions can be an useful tool in the analysis of life time data. After stating some basic notations we will present a data example. Applying standard parametric methods to these data we will see that this approach fails - basic features of the underlying functions are not reflected by their estimates. Our proposal is to use nonparametric estimation methods. These methods are explained in section 2. Nonparametric approaches are better in the sense that they are more flexible, and misspecifications of the model are avoided. But, parametric models have the advantage that the parameters can be interpreted. So, finally, we will formulate a test procedure to check whether a parametric or a nonparametric model is appropriate.
We give a necessary and sufficient condition for the existence of an increasing coupling of N (N >= 2) synchronous dynamics on S-Zd (PCA). Increasing means the coupling preserves stochastic ordering. We first present our main construction theorem in the case where S is totally ordered; applications to attractive PCAs are given. When S is only partially ordered, we show on two examples that a coupling of more than two synchronous dynamics may not exist. We also prove an extension of our main result for a particular class of partially ordered spaces.
We first introduce some coupling of a finite number of Probabilistic Cellular Automata dynamics (PCA), preserving the stochastic ordering. Using this tool, for a general attractive probabilistic cellular automata on SZd, where S is finite, we prove that a condition (A) is equivalent to the (time-) convergence towards equilibrium of this Markovian parallel dynamics, in the uniform norm, exponentially fast. This condition (A) means the exponential decay of the influence from the boundary for the invariant measures of the system restricted to finite ‘box’-volume. For a class of reversible PCA dynamics on {−1, +1}Zd , with a naturally associated Gibbsian potential ϕ, we prove that a Weak Mixing condition for ϕ implies the validity of the assumption (A); thus the ‘exponential ergodicity’ of the dynamics towards the unique Gibbs measure associated to ϕ holds. On some particular examples of this PCA class, we verify that our assumption (A) is weaker than the Dobrushin-Vasershtein ergodicity condition. For some special PCA, the ‘exponential ergodicity’ holds as soon as there is no phase transition.
The article starts with an overview of modernization theories, its history of ups and downs as well as its present status. This first part is followed by an analysis of basic social structure distributions and trends in human development in selected countries. One major focal point of the paper is the Non-Western world and the Arab countries, in particular. The author looks at modernization and modernity in that region and comes to the conclusion that the Western world can no longer expect to be able to simply export its own values and its way of life to the rest of the world.
This paper offers a new theoretical framework for studying the problem of generations and social change in contemporary Iran. It offers a model which is called „articulation of cultural modes“. The paper agrees with Ronald Inglehart that ‘culture’ is now playing a more dominant role in the social formation of current societies, as ‘technology’ once did in the modern era. But it goes one step further by arguing that culture cannot be approached as a holistic concept building on a comprehensive theoretical framework.
For the first time when the new Islamic councils began their Operation, many intellectuals and politicians proclaimed that there would be no room for the young Islamic councils to proceed. In political terms, because of the new challenges between the rightists and leftists, many people had no hope to see the results of the councils. Still others believed that under the dominating ruling system of Iran there is no space for public opinion and participation in local decision-making. This paper focuses on the role of the Islamic Councils as a new form of social democracy, which decentralizes power and creates good local governance. The paper also discusses the obstacles for the Councils in the development of the region.
Executive responsibility for EU policies is by tradition delegated to the member states and their internal administrative bodies. It is therefore of outmost importance that the new Central and East European members have the capacity to administer the acquis communitaire once they are full members of the EU. Based on a survey among current and former top-level decision-makers (ministers), this article argues that although there are significant implementation problems, efficiency gains can be made through administrative reform and not the least education aimed at changing the worldview and knowledge of the individual civil servant. However, there seem to be significant differences in how these countries tackle implementation problems and administrative reform.