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Estimating global mean sea-level rise and its uncertainties by 2100 and 2300 from an expert survey
(2020)
Sea-level rise projections and knowledge of their uncertainties are vital to make informed mitigation and adaptation decisions. To elicit projections from members of the scientific community regarding future global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise, we repeated a survey originally conducted five years ago. Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, 106 experts projected a likely (central 66% probability) GMSL rise of 0.30-0.65 m by 2100, and 0.54-2.15 m by 2300, relative to 1986-2005. Under RCP 8.5, the same experts projected a likely GMSL rise of 0.63-1.32 m by 2100, and 1.67-5.61 m by 2300. Expert projections for 2100 are similar to those from the original survey, although the projection for 2300 has extended tails and is higher than the original survey. Experts give a likelihood of 42% (original survey) and 45% (current survey) that under the high-emissions scenario GMSL rise will exceed the upper bound (0.98 m) of the likely range estimated by the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which is considered to have an exceedance likelihood of 17%. Responses to open-ended questions suggest that the increases in upper-end estimates and uncertainties arose from recent influential studies about the impact of marine ice cliff instability on the meltwater contribution to GMSL rise from the Antarctic Ice Sheet.
Subdwarf B stars are core-helium-burning stars located on the extreme horizontal branch (EHB). Extensive mass loss on the red giant branch is necessary to form them. It has been proposed that substellar companions could lead to the required mass loss when they are engulfed in the envelope of the red giant star. J08205+0008 was the first example of a hot subdwarf star with a close, substellar companion candidate to be found. Here, we perform an in-depth re-analysis of this important system with much higher quality data allowing additional analysis methods. From the higher resolution spectra obtained with ESO-VLT/XSHOOTER, we derive the chemical abundances of the hot subdwarf as well as its rotational velocity. Using the Gaia parallax and a fit to the spectral energy distribution in the secondary eclipse, tight constraints to the radius of the hot subdwarf are derived. From a long-term photometric campaign, we detected a significant period decrease of -3.2(8) x 10(-12) dd(-1). This can be explained by the non-synchronized hot subdwarf star being spun up by tidal interactions forcing it to become synchronized. From the rate of period decrease we could derive the synchronization time-scale to be 4 Myr, much smaller than the lifetime on EHB. By combining all different methods, we could constrain the hot subdwarf to a mass of 0.39-0.50 M-circle dot and a radius of R-sdB = 0.194 +/- 0.008 R-circle dot, and the companion to 0.061-0.071 M-circle dot with a radius of R-comp = 0.092 +/- 0.005 R-circle dot, below the hydrogen-burning limit. We therefore confirm that the companion is most likely a massive brown dwarf.
The optical signatures of molecular-doping induced polarons in poly(3-hexylthiophene-2,5-diyl)
(2020)
Optical absorption spectroscopy is a key method to investigate doped conjugated polymers and to characterize the doping-induced charge carriers, i.e., polarons. For prototypical poly(3-hexylthiophene-2,5-diyl) (P3HT), the absorption intensity of molecular dopant induced polarons is widely used to estimate the carrier density and the doping efficiency, i.e., the number of polarons formed per dopant molecule. However, the dependence of the polaron-related absorption features on the structure of doped P3HT, being either aggregates or separated individual chains, is not comprehensively understood in contrast to the optical absorption features of neutral P3HT. In this work, we unambiguously differentiate the optical signatures of polarons on individual P3HT chains and aggregates in solution, notably the latter exhibiting the same shape as aggregates in solid thin films. This is enabled by employing tris(pentafluorophenyl)borane (BCF) as dopant, as this dopant forms only ion pairs with P3HT and no charge transfer complexes, and BCF and its anion have no absorption in the spectral region of P3HT polarons. Polarons on individual chains exhibit absorption peaks at 1.5 eV and 0.6 eV, whereas in aggregates the high-energy peak is split into a doublet 1.3 eV and 1.65 eV, and the low-energy peak is shifted below 0.5 eV. The dependence of the fraction of solvated individual chains versus aggregates on absolute solution concentration, dopant concentration, and temperature is elucidated, and we find that aggregates predominate in solution under commonly used processing conditions. Aggregates in BCF-doped P3HT solution can be effectively removed upon simple filtering. From varying the filter pore size (down to 200 nm) and thin film morphology characterization with scanning force microscopy we reveal the aggregates' size dependence on solution absolute concentration and dopant concentration. Furthermore, X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy shows that the dopant loading in aggregates is higher than for individual P3HT chains. The results of this study help understanding the impact of solution pre-aggregation on thin film properties of molecularly doped P3HT, and highlight the importance of considering such aggregation for other doped conjugated polymers in general.
The remarkable progress of metal halide perovskites in photovoltaics has led to the power conversion efficiency approaching 26%. However, practical applications of perovskite-based solar cells are challenged by the stability issues, of which the most critical one is photo-induced degradation. Bare CH3NH3PbI3 perovskite films are known to decompose rapidly, with methylammonium and iodine as volatile species and residual solid PbI2 and metallic Pb, under vacuum under white light illumination, on the timescale of minutes. We find, in agreement with previous work, that the degradation is non-uniform and proceeds predominantly from the surface, and that illumination under N-2 and ambient air (relative humidity 20%) does not induce substantial degradation even after several hours. Yet, in all cases the release of iodine from the perovskite surface is directly identified by X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy. This goes in hand with a loss of organic cations and the formation of metallic Pb. When CH3NH3PbI3 films are covered with a few nm thick organic capping layer, either charge selective or non-selective, the rapid photodecomposition process under ultrahigh vacuum is reduced by more than one order of magnitude, and becomes similar in timescale to that under N-2 or air. We conclude that the light-induced decomposition reaction of CH3NH3PbI3, leading to volatile methylammonium and iodine, is largely reversible as long as these products are restrained from leaving the surface. This is readily achieved by ambient atmospheric pressure, as well as a thin organic capping layer even under ultrahigh vacuum. In addition to explaining the impact of gas pressure on the stability of this perovskite, our results indicate that covalently "locking" the position of perovskite components at the surface or an interface should enhance the overall photostability.
Organic solar cells with large insensitivity to donor polymer molar mass across all acceptor classes
(2020)
Donor polymer number-average molar mass (M-n) has long been known to influence organic photovoltaic (OPV) performance via changes in both the polymer properties and the resulting bulk heterojunction morphology. The exact nature of these M-n effects varies from system to system, although there is generally some intermediate M-n that results in optimal performance. Interestingly, our earlier work with the difluorobenzotriazole (FTAZ)-based donor polymer, paired with either N2200 (polymer acceptor) or PC61BM (fullerene acceptor), PcBm demonstrated <10% variation in power conversion efficiency and a consistent morphology over a large span of M-n (30 kg/mol to over 100 kg/mol). Would such insensitivity to polymer M-n still hold true when prevailing small molecular acceptors were used with FTAZ? To answer this question, we explored the impact of FTAZ on OPVs with ITIC, a high-performance small-molecule fused-ring electron acceptor (FREA). By probing the photovoltaic characteristics of the resulting OPVs, we show that a similar FTAZ mn insensitivity is also found in the FTAZ:ITIC system. This study highlights a single-donor polymer which, when paired with an archetypal fullerene, polymer, and FREA, results in systems that are largely insensitive to donor M. Our results may have implications in polymer batch-to-batch reproducibility, in particular, relaxing the need for tight M-n control during synthesis.
Context.
The supergiant ionized shell SMC-SGS 1 (DEM 167), which is located in the outer Wing of the Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC), resembles structures that originate from an energetic star-formation event and later stimulate star formation as they expand into the ambient medium. However, stellar populations within and surrounding SMC-SGS 1 tell a different story. Aims. We present a photometric study of the stellar population encompassed by SMC-SGS 1 in order to trace the history of such a large structure and its potential influence on star formation within the low-density, low-metallicity environment of the SMC.
Methods.
For a stellar population that is physically associated with SMC-SGS 1, we combined near-ultraviolet (NUV) photometry from the Galaxy Evolution Explorer with archival optical (V-band) photometry from the ESO Danish 1.54 m Telescope. Given their colors and luminosities, we estimated stellar ages and masses by matching observed photometry to theoretical stellar isochrone models. Results. We find that the investigated region supports an active, extended star-formation event spanning similar to 25-40 Myr ago, as well as continued star formation into the present. Using a standard initial mass function, we infer a lower bound on the stellar mass from this period of similar to 3 x 10(4) M-circle dot, corresponding to a star-formation intensity of similar to 6 x 10(-3) M-circle dot kpc(-2) yr(-1).
Conclusions.
The spatial and temporal distributions of young stars encompassed by SMC-SGS 1 imply a slow, consistent progression of star formation over millions of years. Ongoing star formation, both along the edge and interior to SMC-SGS 1, suggests a combined stimulated and stochastic mode of star formation within the SMC Wing. We note that a slow expansion of the shell within this low-density environment may preserve molecular clouds within the volume of the shell, leaving them to form stars even after nearby stellar feedback expels local gas and dust.
It is demonstrated for the case of photo-excited ferrocyanide how time-resolved soft X-ray absorption spectroscopy in transmission geometry at the ligand K-edge and metal L-3-edge provides quantitatively equivalent valence electronic structure information, where signatures of photo-oxidation are assessed locally at the metal as well as the ligand. This allows for a direct and independent quantification of the number of photo-oxidized molecules at two soft X-ray absorption edges highlighting the sensitivity of X-ray absorption spectroscopy to the valence orbital occupation of 3d transition metal complexes throughout the soft X-ray range.
Glacial-cycle simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM)
(2020)
The Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) is applied to the Antarctic Ice Sheet over the last two glacial cycles (approximate to 210 000 years) with a resolution of 16 km. An ensemble of 256 model runs is analyzed in which four relevant model parameters have been systematically varied using full-factorial parameter sampling. Parameters and plausible parameter ranges have been identified in a companion paper (Albrecht et al., 2020) and are associated with ice dynamics, climatic forcing, basal sliding and bed deformation and represent distinct classes of model uncertainties. The model is scored against both modern and geologic data, including reconstructed grounding-line locations, elevation-age data, ice thickness, surface velocities and uplift rates. An aggregated score is computed for each ensemble member that measures the overall model-data misfit, including measurement uncertainty in terms of a Gaussian error model (Briggs and Tarasov, 2013). The statistical method used to analyze the ensemble simulation results follows closely the simple averaging method described in Pollard et al. (2016).
This analysis reveals clusters of best-fit parameter combinations, and hence a likely range of relevant model and boundary parameters, rather than individual best-fit parameters. The ensemble of reconstructed histories of Antarctic Ice Sheet volumes provides a score-weighted likely range of sea-level contributions since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) of 9.4 +/- 4.1m (or 6.5 +/- 2.0 x 10(6) km(3)), which is at the upper range of most previous studies. The last deglaciation occurs in all ensemble simulations after around 12 000 years before present and hence after the meltwater pulse 1A (MWP1a). Our ensemble analysis also provides an estimate of parametric uncertainty bounds for the present-day state that can be used for PISM projections of future sea-level contributions from the Antarctic Ice Sheet.
Transition path dynamics have been widely studied in chemical, physical, and technological systems. Mostly, the transition path dynamics is obtained for smooth barrier potentials, for instance, generic inverse-parabolic shapes. We here present analytical results for the mean transition path time, the distribution of transition path times, the mean transition path velocity, and the mean transition path shape in a rough inverted parabolic potential function under the driving of Gaussian white noise. These are validated against extensive simulations using the forward flux sampling scheme in parallel computations. We observe how precisely the potential roughness, the barrier height, and the noise intensity contribute to the particle transition in the rough inverted barrier potential.
A comprehensive photometric and spectroscopic analysis of the variable TYC 5532-1333-1 (TYC) along with an investigation of its orbital period variation is presented for the first time. The B- and V-band photometric study indicates that TYC is an intermediate contact binary with degree of contact and mass ratio of 34 per cent and similar to 0.24, respectively. The derived equivalent widths from the spectroscopic study of H alpha and Na-I lines reveal phase-dependent variation and mutual correlation. Using the available times of minimum light, an investigation of orbital period variation shows a long-term decrease at a rate of 3.98 x 10(-6) d yr(-1). Expected causes for such decline in the orbital period could be angular momentum loss and a quasi-sinusoidal variation due to light-time effect probably caused by a third-body companion. The minimum mass of the third body (M-3) was derived to be 0.65 M-circle dot. Our presented study is an attempt to evaluate and understand the evolutionary state of above-mentioned neglected contact binary.