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Institute
- Institut für Geowissenschaften (330) (remove)
Landslides are frequent natural hazards in rugged terrain, when the resisting frictional force of the surface of rupture yields to the gravitational force. These forces are functions of geological and morphological factors, such as angle of internal friction, local slope gradient or curvature, which remain static over hundreds of years; whereas more dynamic triggering events, such as rainfall and earthquakes, compromise the force balance by temporarily reducing resisting forces or adding transient loads. This thesis investigates landslide distribution and orientation due to landslide triggers (e.g. rainfall) at different scales (6-4∙10^5 km^2) and aims to link rainfall movement with the landslide distribution. It additionally explores the local impacts of the extreme rainstorms on landsliding and the role of precursory stability conditions that could be induced by an earlier trigger, such as an earthquake.
Extreme rainfall is a common landslide trigger. Although several studies assessed rainfall intensity and duration to study the distribution of thus triggered landslides, only a few case studies quantified spatial rainfall patterns (i.e. orographic effect). Quantifying the regional trajectories of extreme rainfall could aid predicting landslide prone regions in Japan. To this end, I combined a non-linear correlation metric, namely event synchronization, and radial statistics to assess the general pattern of extreme rainfall tracks over distances of hundreds of kilometers using satellite based rainfall estimates. Results showed that, although the increase in rainfall intensity and duration positively correlates with landslide occurrence, the trajectories of typhoons and frontal storms were insufficient to explain landslide distribution in Japan. Extreme rainfall trajectories inclined northwestwards and were concentrated along some certain locations, such as coastlines of southern Japan, which was unnoticed in the landslide distribution of about 5000 rainfall-triggered landslides. These landslides seemed to respond to the mean annual rainfall rates.
Above mentioned findings suggest further investigation on a more local scale to better understand the mechanistic response of landscape to extreme rainfall in terms of landslides. On May 2016 intense rainfall struck southern Germany triggering high waters and landslides. The highest damage was reported at the Braunsbach, which is located on the tributary-mouth fan formed by the Orlacher Bach. Orlacher Bach is a ~3 km long creek that drains a catchment of about ~6 km^2. I visited this catchment in June 2016 and mapped 48 landslides along the creek. Such high landslide activity was not reported in the nearby catchments within ~3300 km^2, despite similar rainfall intensity and duration based on weather radar estimates. My hypothesis was that several landslides were triggered by rainfall-triggered flash floods that undercut hillslope toes along the Orlacher Bach. I found that morphometric features such as slope and curvature play an important role in landslide distribution on this micro scale study site (<10 km^2). In addition, the high number of landslides along the Orlacher Bach could also be boosted by accumulated damages on hillslopes due karst weathering over longer time scales.
Precursory damages on hillslopes could also be induced by past triggering events that effect landscape evolution, but this interaction is hard to assess independently from the latest trigger. For example, an earthquake might influence the evolution of a landscape decades long, besides its direct impacts, such as landslides that follow the earthquake. Here I studied the consequences of the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake (MW 7.1) that triggered some 1500 landslides in an area of ~4000 km^2 in central Kyushu, Japan. Topography, i.e. local slope and curvature, both amplified and attenuated seismic waves, thus controlling the failure mechanism of those landslides (e.g. progressive). I found that topography fails in explaining the distribution and the preferred orientation of the landslides after the earthquake; instead the landslides were concentrated around the northeast of the rupture area and faced mostly normal to the rupture plane. This preferred location of the landslides was dominated mainly by the directivity effect of the strike-slip earthquake, which is the propagation of wave energy along the fault in the rupture direction; whereas amplitude variations of the seismic radiation altered the preferred orientation. I suspect that the earthquake directivity and the asymmetry of seismic radiation damaged hillslopes at those preferred locations increasing landslide susceptibility. Hence a future weak triggering event, e.g. scattered rainfall, could further trigger landslides at those damaged hillslopes.
Throughout the last ~3 million years, the Earth's climate system was characterised by cycles of glacial and interglacial periods. The current warm period, the Holocene, is comparably stable and stands out from this long-term cyclicality. However, since the industrial revolution, the climate has been increasingly affected by a human-induced increase in greenhouse gas concentrations. While instrumental observations are used to describe changes over the past ~200 years, indirect observations via proxy data are the main source of information beyond this instrumental era. These data are indicators of past climatic conditions, stored in palaeoclimate archives around the Earth. The proxy signal is affected by processes independent of the prevailing climatic conditions. In particular, for sedimentary archives such as marine sediments and polar ice sheets, material may be redistributed during or after the initial deposition and subsequent formation of the archive. This leads to noise in the records challenging reliable reconstructions on local or short time scales. This dissertation characterises the initial deposition of the climatic signal and quantifies the resulting archive-internal heterogeneity and its influence on the observed proxy signal to improve the representativity and interpretation of climate reconstructions from marine sediments and ice cores.
To this end, the horizontal and vertical variation in radiocarbon content of a box-core from the South China Sea is investigated. The three-dimensional resolution is used to quantify the true uncertainty in radiocarbon age estimates from planktonic foraminifera with an extensive sampling scheme, including different sample volumes and replicated measurements of batches of small and large numbers of specimen. An assessment on the variability stemming from sediment mixing by benthic organisms reveals strong internal heterogeneity. Hence, sediment mixing leads to substantial time uncertainty of proxy-based reconstructions with error terms two to five times larger than previously assumed.
A second three-dimensional analysis of the upper snowpack provides insights into the heterogeneous signal deposition and imprint in snow and firn. A new study design which combines a structure-from-motion photogrammetry approach with two-dimensional isotopic data is performed at a study site in the accumulation zone of the Greenland Ice Sheet. The photogrammetry method reveals an intermittent character of snowfall, a layer-wise snow deposition with substantial contributions by wind-driven erosion and redistribution to the final spatially variable accumulation and illustrated the evolution of stratigraphic noise at the surface. The isotopic data show the preservation of stratigraphic noise within the upper firn column, leading to a spatially variable climate signal imprint and heterogeneous layer thicknesses. Additional post-depositional modifications due to snow-air exchange are also investigated, but without a conclusive quantification of the contribution to the final isotopic signature.
Finally, this characterisation and quantification of the complex signal formation in marine sediments and polar ice contributes to a better understanding of the signal content in proxy data which is needed to assess the natural climate variability during the Holocene.
Lava domes are severely hazardous, mound-shaped extrusions of highly viscous lava and commonly erupt at many active stratovolcanoes around the world. Due to gradual growth and flank oversteepening, such lava domes regularly experience partial or full collapses, resulting in destructive and far-reaching pyroclastic density currents. They are also associated with cyclic explosive activity as the complex interplay of cooling, degassing, and solidification of dome lavas regularly causes gas pressurizations on the dome or the underlying volcano conduit. Lava dome extrusions can last from days to decades, further highlighting the need for accurate and reliable monitoring data.
This thesis aims to improve our understanding of lava dome processes and to contribute to the monitoring and prediction of hazards posed by these domes. The recent rise and sophistication of photogrammetric techniques allows for the extraction of observational data in unprecedented detail and creates ideal tools for accomplishing this purpose. Here, I study natural lava dome extrusions as well as laboratory-based analogue models of lava dome extrusions and employ photogrammetric monitoring by Structure-from-Motion (SfM) and Particle-Image-Velocimetry (PIV) techniques. I primarily use aerial photography data obtained by helicopter, airplanes, Unoccupied Aircraft Systems (UAS) or ground-based timelapse cameras. Firstly, by combining a long time-series of overflight data at Volcán de Colima, México, with seismic and satellite radar data, I construct a detailed timeline of lava dome and crater evolution. Using numerical model, the impact of the extrusion on dome morphology and loading stress is further evaluated and an impact on the growth direction is identified, bearing important implications for the location of collapse hazards. Secondly, sequential overflight surveys at the Santiaguito lava dome, Guatemala, reveal surface motion data in high detail. I quantify the growth of the lava dome and the movement of a lava flow, showing complex motions that occur on different timescales and I provide insight into rock properties relevant for hazard assessment inferred purely by photogrammetric processing of remote sensing data. Lastly, I recreate artificial lava dome and spine growth using analogue modelling under controlled conditions, providing new insights into lava extrusion processes and structures as well as the conditions in which they form.
These findings demonstrate the capabilities of photogrammetric data analyses to successfully monitor lava dome growth and evolution while highlighting the advantages of complementary modelling methods to explain the observed phenomena. The results presented herein further bear important new insights and implications for the hazards posed by lava domes.
Information on the contemporary in-situ stress state of the earth’s crust is essential for geotechnical applications and physics-based seismic hazard assessment. Yet, stress data records for a data point are incomplete and their availability is usually not dense enough to allow conclusive statements. This demands a thorough examination of the in-situ stress field which is achieved by 3D geomechanicalnumerical models. However, the models spatial resolution is limited and the resulting local stress state is subject to large uncertainties that confine the significance of the findings. In addition, temporal variations of the in-situ stress field are naturally or anthropogenically induced. In my thesis I address these challenges in three manuscripts that investigate (1) the current crustal stress field orientation, (2) the 3D geomechanical-numerical modelling of the in-situ stress state, and (3) the phenomenon of injection induced temporal stress tensor rotations. In the first manuscript I present the first comprehensive stress data compilation of Iceland with 495 data records. Therefore, I analysed image logs from 57 boreholes in Iceland for indicators of the orientation of the maximum horizontal stress component. The study is the first stress survey from different kinds of stress indicators in a geologically very young and tectonically active area of an onshore spreading ridge. It reveals a distinct stress field with a depth independent stress orientation even very close to the spreading centre. In the second manuscript I present a calibrated 3D geomechanical-numerical modelling approach of the in-situ stress state of the Bavarian Molasse Basin that investigates the regional (70x70x10km³) and local (10x10x10km³) stress state. To link these two models I develop a multi-stage modelling approach that provides a reliable and efficient method to derive from the larger scale model initial and boundary conditions for the smaller scale model. Furthermore, I quantify the uncertainties in the models results which are inherent to geomechanical-numerical modelling in general and the multi-stage approach in particular. I show that the significance of the models results is mainly reduced due to the uncertainties in the material properties and the low number of available stress magnitude data records for calibration. In the third manuscript I investigate the phenomenon of injection induced temporal stress tensor rotation and its controlling factors. I conduct a sensitivity study with a 3D generic thermo-hydro-mechanical model. I show that the key control factors for the stress tensor rotation are the permeability as the decisive factor, the injection rate, and the initial differential stress. In particular for enhanced geothermal systems with a low permeability large rotations of the stress tensor are indicated. According to these findings the estimation of the initial differential stress in a reservoir is possible provided the permeability is known and the angle of stress rotation is observed. I propose that the stress tensor rotations can be a key factor in terms of the potential for induced seismicity on pre-existing faults due to the reorientation of the stress field that changes the optimal orientation of faults.
To what extent cities can be made sustainable under the mega-trends of urbanization and climate change remains a matter of unresolved scientific debate. Our inability in answering this question lies partly in the deficient knowledge regarding pivotal humanenvironment interactions. Regarded as the most well documented anthropogenic climate modification, the urban heat island (UHI) effect – the warmth of urban areas relative to the rural hinterland – has raised great public health concerns globally. Worse still, heat waves are being observed and are projected to increase in both frequency and intensity, which further impairs the well-being of urban dwellers. Albeit with a substantial increase in the number of publications on UHI in the recent decades, the diverse urban-rural definitions applied in previous studies have remarkably hampered the general comparability of results achieved. In addition, few studies have attempted to synergize the land use data and thermal remote sensing to systematically assess UHI and its contributing factors.
Given these research gaps, this work presents a general framework to systematically quantify the UHI effect based on an automated algorithm, whereby cities are defined as clusters of maximum spatial continuity on the basis of land use data, with their rural hinterland being defined analogously. By combining land use data with spatially explicit surface skin temperatures from satellites, the surface UHI intensity can be calculated in a consistent and robust manner. This facilitates monitoring, benchmarking, and categorizing UHI intensities for cities across scales. In light of this innovation, the relationship between city size and UHI intensity has been investigated, as well as the contributions of urban form indicators to the UHI intensity.
This work delivers manifold contributions to the understanding of the UHI, which have complemented and advanced a number of previous studies. Firstly, a log-linear relationship between surface UHI intensity and city size has been confirmed among the 5,000 European cities. The relationship can be extended to a log-logistic one, when taking a wider range of small-sized cities into account. Secondly, this work reveals a complex interplay between UHI intensity and urban form. City size is found to have the strongest influence on the UHI intensity, followed by the fractality and the anisometry. However, their relative contributions to the surface UHI intensity depict a pronounced regional heterogeneity, indicating the importance of considering spatial patterns of UHI while implementing UHI adaptation measures.
Lastly, this work presents a novel seasonality of the UHI intensity for individual clusters in the form of hysteresis-like curves, implying a phase shift between the time series of UHI intensity and background temperatures. Combining satellite observation and urban boundary layer simulation, the seasonal variations of UHI are assessed from both screen and skin levels. Taking London as an example, this work ascribes the discrepancies between the seasonality observed at different levels mainly to the peculiarities of surface skin temperatures associated with the incoming solar radiation. In addition, the efforts in classifying cities according to their UHI characteristics highlight the important role of regional climates in determining the UHI.
This work serves as one of the first studies conducted to systematically and statistically scrutinize the UHI. The outcomes of this work are of particular relevance for the overall spatial planning and regulation at meso- and macro levels in order to harness the benefits of rapid urbanization, while proactively minimizing its ensuing thermal stress.
Seismological and seismotectonic analysis of the northwestern Argentine Central Andean foreland
(2020)
After a severe M W 5.7 earthquake on October 17, 2015 in El Galpón in the province of Salta NW Argentina, I installed a local seismological network around the estimated epicenter. The network covered an area characterized by inherited Cretaceous normal faults and neotectonic faults with unknown recurrence intervals, some of which may have been reactivated normal faults. The 13 three-component seismic stations recorded data continuously for 15 months.
The 2015 earthquake took place in the Santa Bárbara System of the Andean foreland, at about 17km depth. This region is the easternmost morphostructural region of the central Andes. As a part of the broken foreland, it is bounded to the north by the Subandes fold-and-thrust belt and the Sierras Pampeanas to the south; to the east lies the Chaco-Paraná basin.
A multi-stage morphotectonic evolution with thick-skinned basement uplift and coeval thin-skinned deformation in the intermontane basins is suggested for the study area. The release of stresses associated with the foreland deformation can result in strong earthquakes, as the study area is known for recurrent and historical, destructive earthquakes. The available continuous record reaches back in time, when the strongest event in 1692 (magnitude 7 or intensity IX) destroyed the city of Esteco. Destructive earthquakes and surface deformation are thus a hallmark of this part of the Andean foreland.
With state-of-the-art Python packages (e.g. pyrocko, ObsPy), a semi-automatic approach is followed to analyze the collected continuous data of the seismological network. The resulting 1435 hypocenter locations consist of three different groups: 1.) local crustal earthquakes (nearly half of the events belong to this group), 2.) interplate activity, of regional distance in the slab of the Nazca-plate, and 3.) very deep earthquakes at about 600km depth. My major interest focused on the first event class. Those crustal events are partly aftershock events of the El Galpón earthquake and a second earthquake, in the south of the same fault. Further events can be considered as background seismicity of other faults within the study area. Strikingly, the seismogenic zone encompass the whole crust and propagates brittle deformation down, close to the Moho.
From the collected seismological data, a local seismic velocity model is estimated, using VELEST. After the execution of various stability tests, the robust minimum 1D-velocity model implies guiding values for the composition of the local, subsurface structure of the crust. Afterwards, performing a hypocenter relocation enables the assignment of individual earthquakes to aftershock clusters or extended seismotectonic structures. This allows the mapping of previously unknown seismogenic faults.
Finally, focal mechanisms are modeled for events with acurately located hypocenters, using the newly derived local velocity model. A compressive regime is attested by the majority of focal mechanisms, while the strike direction of the individual seismogenic structures is in agreement with the overall north – south orientation of the Central Andes, its mountain front, and individual mountain ranges in the southern Santa-Bárbara-System.
Interactions and feedbacks between tectonics, climate, and upper plate architecture control basin geometry, relief, and depositional systems. The Andes is part of a longlived continental margin characterized by multiple tectonic cycles which have strongly modified the Andean upper plate architecture. In the Andean retroarc, spatiotemporal variations in the structure of the upper plate and tectonic regimes have resulted in marked along-strike variations in basin geometry, stratigraphy, deformational style, and mountain belt morphology. These along-strike variations include high-elevation plateaus (Altiplano and Puna) associated with a thin-skin fold-and-thrust-belt and thick-skin deformation in broken foreland basins such as the Santa Barbara system and the Sierras Pampeanas. At the confluence of the Puna Plateau, the Santa Barbara system and the Sierras Pampeanas, major along-strike changes in upper plate architecture, mountain belt morphology, basement exhumation, and deformation style can be recognized. I have used a source to sink approach to unravel the spatiotemporal tectonic evolution of the Andean retroarc between 26 and 28°S. I obtained a large low-temperature thermochronology data set from basement units which includes apatite fission track, apatite U-Th-Sm/He, and zircon U-Th/He (ZHe) cooling ages. Stratigraphic descriptions of Miocene units were temporally constrained by U-Pb LA-ICP-MS zircon ages from interbedded pyroclastic material.
Modeled ZHe ages suggest that the basement of the study area was exhumed during the Famatinian orogeny (550-450 Ma), followed by a period of relative tectonic quiescence during the Paleozoic and the Triassic. The basement experienced horst exhumation during the Cretaceous development of the Salta rift. After initial exhumation, deposition of thick Cretaceous syn-rift strata caused reheating of several basement blocks within the Santa Barbara system. During the Eocene-Oligocene, the Andean compressional setting was responsible for the exhumation of several disconnected basement blocks. These exhumed blocks were separated by areas of low relief, in which humid climate and low erosion rates facilitated the development of etchplains on the crystalline basement. The exhumed basement blocks formed an Eocene to Oligocene broken foreland basin in the back-bulge depozone of the Andean foreland. During the Early Miocene, foreland basin strata filled up the preexisting Paleogene topography. The basement blocks in lower relief positions were reheated; associated geothermal gradients were higher than 25°C/km. Miocene volcanism was responsible for lateral variations on the amount of reheating along the Campo-Arenal basin. Around 12 Ma, a new deformational phase modified the drainage network and fragmented the lacustrine system. As deformation and rock uplift continued, the easily eroded sedimentary cover was efficiently removed and reworked by an ephemeral fluvial system, preventing the development of significant relief. After ~6 Ma, the low erodibility of the basement blocks which began to be exposed caused relief increase, leading to the development of stable fluvial systems. Progressive relief development modified atmospheric circulation, creating a rainfall gradient. After 3 Ma, orographic rainfall and high relief lead to the development of proximal fluvial-gravitational depositional systems in the surrounding basins.
Modern anthropogenic forcing of atmospheric chemistry poses the question of how the Earth System will respond as thousands of gigatons of greenhouse gas are rapidly added to the atmosphere. A similar, albeit nonanthropogenic, situation occurred during the early Paleogene, when catastrophic release of carbon to the atmosphere triggered abrupt increase in global temperatures. The best documented of these events is the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM, ~55 Ma) when the magnitude of carbon addition to the oceans and atmosphere was similar to those expected for the future. This event initiated global warming, changes in hydrological cycles, biotic extinction and migrations. A recently proposed hypothesis concerning changes in marine ecosystems suggests that this global warming strongly influenced the shallow-water biosphere, triggering extinctions and turnover in the Larger Foraminifera (LF) community and the demise of corals. The successions from the Adriatic Carbonate Platform (SW Slovenia) represent an ideal location to test the hypothesis of a possible causal link between the PETM and evolution of shallow-water organisms because they record continuous sedimentation from the Late Paleocene to the Early Eocene and are characterized by a rich biota, especially LF, fundamental for detailed biostratigraphic studies. In order to reconstruct paleoenvironmental conditions during deposition, I focused on sedimentological analysis and paleoecological study of benthic assemblages. During the Late Paleocene-earliest Eocene, sedimentation occurred on a shallow-water carbonate ramp system characterized by enhanced nutrient levels. LF represent the common constituent of the benthic assemblages that thrived in this setting throughout the Late Paleocene to the Early Eocene. With detailed biostratigraphic and chemostratigraphic analyses documenting the most complete record to date available for the PETM event in a shallow-water marine environment, I correlated chemostratigraphically for the first time the evolution of LF with the δ¹³C curves. This correlation demonstrated that no major turnover in the LF communities occurred synchronous with the PETM; thus the evolution of LF was mainly controlled by endogenous biotic forces. The study of Late Thanetian metric-sized microbialite-coral mounds which developed in the middle part of the ramp, documented the first Cenozoic occurrence of microbially-cemented mounds. The development of these mounds, with temporary dominance of microbial communities over corals, suggest environmentally-triggered “phase shifts” related to frequent fluctuations of nutrient/turbidity levels during recurrent wet phases which preceding the extreme greenhouse conditions of the PETM. The paleoecological study of the coral community in the microbialites-coral mounds, the study of corals from Early Eocene platform from SW France, and a critical, extensive literature research of Late Paleocene – Early Eocene coral occurrences from the Tethys, the Atlantic, the Caribbean realms suggested that these corals types, even if not forming extensive reefs, are common in the biofacies as small isolated colonies, piles of rubble or small patch-reefs. These corals might have developed ‘alternative’ life strategies to cope with harsh conditions (high/fluctuating nutrients/turbidity, extreme temperatures, perturbation of aragonite saturation state) during the greenhouse times of the early Paleogene, representing a good fossil analogue to modern corals thriving close to their thresholds for survival. These results demonstrate the complexity of the biological responses to extreme conditions, not only in terms of temperature but also nutrient supply, physical disturbance and their temporal variability and oscillating character.
Volcanoes are one of the Earth’s most dynamic zones and responsible for many changes in our planet. Volcano seismology aims to provide an understanding of the physical processes in volcanic systems and anticipate the style and timing of eruptions by analyzing the seismic records. Volcanic tremor signals are usually observed in the seismic records before or during volcanic eruptions. Their analysis contributes to evaluate the evolving volcanic activity and potentially predict eruptions. Years of continuous seismic monitoring now provide useful information for operational eruption forecasting. The continuously growing amount of seismic recordings, however, poses a challenge for analysis, information extraction, and interpretation, to support timely decision making during volcanic crises. Furthermore, the complexity of eruption processes and precursory activities makes the analysis challenging.
A challenge in studying seismic signals of volcanic origin is the coexistence of transient signal swarms and long-lasting volcanic tremor signals. Separating transient events from volcanic tremors can, therefore, contribute to improving our understanding of the underlying physical processes. Some similar issues (data reduction, source separation, extraction, and classification) are addressed in the context of music information retrieval (MIR). The signal characteristics of acoustic and seismic recordings comprise a number of similarities. This thesis is going beyond classical signal analysis techniques usually employed in seismology by exploiting similarities of seismic and acoustic signals and building the information retrieval strategy on the expertise developed in the field of MIR.
First, inspired by the idea of harmonic–percussive separation (HPS) in musical signal processing, I have developed a method to extract harmonic volcanic tremor signals and to detect transient events from seismic recordings. This provides a clean tremor signal suitable for tremor investigation along with a characteristic function suitable for earthquake detection. Second, using HPS algorithms, I have developed a noise reduction technique for seismic signals. This method is especially useful for denoising ocean bottom seismometers, which are highly contaminated by noise. The advantage of this method compared to other denoising techniques is that it doesn’t introduce distortion to the broadband earthquake waveforms, which makes it reliable for different applications in passive seismological analysis. Third, to address the challenge of extracting information from high-dimensional data and investigating the complex eruptive phases, I have developed an advanced machine learning model that results in a comprehensive signal processing scheme for volcanic tremors. Using this method seismic signatures of major eruptive phases can be automatically detected. This helps to provide a chronology of the volcanic system. Also, this model is capable to detect weak precursory volcanic tremors prior to the eruption, which could be used as an indicator of imminent eruptive activity. The extracted patterns of seismicity and their temporal variations finally provide an explanation for the transition mechanism between eruptive phases.
Analysis and modeling of transient earthquake patterns and their dependence on local stress regimes
(2015)
Investigations in the field of earthquake triggering and associated interactions, which includes aftershock triggering as well as induced seismicity, is important for seismic hazard assessment due to earthquakes destructive power. One of the approaches to study earthquake triggering and their interactions is the use of statistical earthquake models, which are based on knowledge of the basic seismicity properties, in particular, the magnitude distribution and spatiotemporal properties of the triggered events.
In my PhD thesis I focus on some specific aspects of aftershock properties, namely, the relative seismic moment release of the aftershocks with respect to the mainshocks; the spatial correlation between aftershock occurrence and fault deformation; and on the influence of aseismic transients on the aftershock parameter estimation. For the analysis of aftershock sequences I choose a statistical approach, in particular, the well known Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model, which accounts for the input of background and triggered seismicity. For my specific purposes, I develop two ETAS model modifications in collaboration with Sebastian Hainzl. By means of this approach, I estimate the statistical aftershock parameters and performed simulations of aftershock sequences as well.
In the case of seismic moment release of aftershocks, I focus on the ratio of cumulative seismic moment release with respect to the mainshocks. Specifically, I investigate the ratio with respect to the focal mechanism of the mainshock and estimate an effective magnitude, which represents the cumulative aftershock energy (similar to Bath's law, which defines the average difference between mainshock and the largest aftershock magnitudes). Furthermore, I compare the observed seismic moment ratios with the results of the ETAS simulations. In particular, I test a restricted ETAS (RETAS) model which is based on results of a clock advanced model and static stress triggering.
To analyze spatial variations of triggering parameters I focus in my second approach on the aftershock occurrence triggered by large mainshocks and the study of the aftershock parameter distribution and their spatial correlation with the coseismic/postseismic slip and interseismic locking. To invert the aftershock parameters I improve the modified ETAS (m-ETAS) model, which is able to take the extension of the mainshock rupture into account. I compare the results obtained by the classical approach with the output of the m-ETAS model.
My third approach is concerned with the temporal clustering of seismicity, which might not only be related to earthquake-earthquake interactions, but also to a time-dependent background rate, potentially biasing the parameter estimations. Thus, my coauthors and I also applied a modification of the ETAS model, which is able to take into account time-dependent background activity. It can be applicable for two different cases: when an aftershock catalog has a temporal incompleteness or when the background seismicity rate changes with time, due to presence of aseismic forces.
An essential part of any research is the testing of the developed models using observational data sets, which are appropriate for the particular study case. Therefore, in the case of seismic moment release I use the global seismicity catalog. For the spatial distribution of triggering parameters I exploit two aftershock sequences of the Mw8.8 2010 Maule (Chile) and Mw 9.0 2011 Tohoku (Japan) mainshocks. In addition, I use published geodetic slip models of different authors. To test our ability to detect aseismic transients my coauthors and I use the data sets from Western Bohemia (Central Europe) and California.
Our results indicate that:
(1) the seismic moment of aftershocks with respect to mainshocks depends on the static stress changes and is maximal for the normal, intermediate for thrust and minimal for strike-slip stress regimes, where the RETAS model shows a good correspondence with the results;
(2) The spatial distribution of aftershock parameters, obtained by the m-ETAS model, shows anomalous values in areas of reactivated crustal fault systems. In addition, the aftershock density is found to be correlated with coseismic slip gradient, afterslip, interseismic coupling and b-values. Aftershock seismic moment is positively correlated with the areas of maximum coseismic slip and interseismically locked areas. These correlations might be related to the stress level or to material properties variations in space;
(3) Ignoring aseismic transient forcing or temporal catalog incompleteness can lead to the significant under- or overestimation of the underlying trigger parameters. In the case when a catalog is complete, this method helps to identify aseismic sources.