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Several mechanisms are proposed to be part of the earthquake triggering process, including static stress interactions and dynamic stress transfer. Significant differences of these mechanisms are particularly expected in the spatial distribution of aftershocks. However, testing the different hypotheses is challenging because it requires the consideration of the large uncertainties involved in stress calculations as well as the appropriate consideration of secondary aftershock triggering which is related to stress changes induced by smaller pre- and aftershocks. In order to evaluate the forecast capability of different mechanisms, I take the effect of smaller--magnitude earthquakes into account by using the epidemic type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model where the spatial probability distribution of direct aftershocks, if available, is correlated to alternative source information and mechanisms. Surface shaking, rupture geometry, and slip distributions are tested. As an approximation of the shaking level, ShakeMaps are used which are available in near real-time after a mainshock and thus could be used for first-order forecasts of the spatial aftershock distribution. Alternatively, the use of empirical decay laws related to minimum fault distance is tested and Coulomb stress change calculations based on published and random slip models. For comparison, the likelihood values of the different model combinations are analyzed in the case of several well-known aftershock sequences (1992 Landers, 1999 Hector Mine, 2004 Parkfield). The tests show that the fault geometry is the most valuable information for improving aftershock forecasts. Furthermore, they reveal that static stress maps can additionally improve the forecasts of off--fault aftershock locations, while the integration of ground shaking data could not upgrade the results significantly. In the second part of this work, I focused on a procedure to test the information content of inverted slip models. This allows to quantify the information gain if this kind of data is included in aftershock forecasts. For this purpose, the ETAS model based on static stress changes, which is introduced in part one, is applied. The forecast ability of the models is systematically tested for several earthquake sequences and compared to models using random slip distributions. The influence of subfault resolution and segment strike and dip is tested. Some of the tested slip models perform very good, in that cases almost no random slip models are found to perform better. Contrastingly, for some of the published slip models, almost all random slip models perform better than the published slip model. Choosing a different subfault resolution hardly influences the result, as long the general slip pattern is still reproducible. Whereas different strike and dip values strongly influence the results depending on the standard deviation chosen, which is applied in the process of randomly selecting the strike and dip values.
A comprehensive study on seismic hazard and earthquake triggering is crucial for effective mitigation of earthquake risks. The destructive nature of earthquakes motivates researchers to work on forecasting despite the apparent randomness of the earthquake occurrences. Understanding their underlying mechanisms and patterns is vital, given their potential for widespread devastation and loss of life. This thesis combines methodologies, including Coulomb stress calculations and aftershock analysis, to shed light on earthquake complexities, ultimately enhancing seismic hazard assessment.
The Coulomb failure stress (CFS) criterion is widely used to predict the spatial distributions of aftershocks following large earthquakes. However, uncertainties associated with CFS calculations arise from non-unique slip inversions and unknown fault networks, particularly due to the choice of the assumed aftershocks (receiver) mechanisms. Recent studies have proposed alternative stress quantities and deep neural network approaches as superior to CFS with predefined receiver mechanisms. To challenge these propositions, I utilized 289 slip inversions from the SRCMOD database to calculate more realistic CFS values for a layered-half space and variable receiver mechanisms. The analysis also investigates the impact of magnitude cutoff, grid size variation, and aftershock duration on the ranking of stress metrics using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. Results reveal the performance of stress metrics significantly improves after accounting for receiver variability and for larger aftershocks and shorter time periods, without altering the relative ranking of the different stress metrics.
To corroborate Coulomb stress calculations with the findings of earthquake source studies in more detail, I studied the source properties of the 2005 Kashmir earthquake and its aftershocks, aiming to unravel the seismotectonics of the NW Himalayan syntaxis. I simultaneously relocated the mainshock and its largest aftershocks using phase data, followed by a comprehensive analysis of Coulomb stress changes on the aftershock planes. By computing the Coulomb failure stress changes on the aftershock faults, I found that all large aftershocks lie in regions of positive stress change, indicating triggering by either co-seismic or post-seismic slip on the mainshock fault.
Finally, I investigated the relationship between mainshock-induced stress changes and associated seismicity parameters, in particular those of the frequency-magnitude (Gutenberg-Richter) distribution and the temporal aftershock decay (Omori-Utsu law). For that purpose, I used my global data set of 127 mainshock-aftershock sequences with the calculated Coulomb Stress (ΔCFS) and the alternative receiver-independent stress metrics in the vicinity of the mainshocks and analyzed the aftershocks properties depend on the stress values. Surprisingly, the results show a clear positive correlation between the Gutenberg-Richter b-value and induced stress, contrary to expectations from laboratory experiments. This observation highlights the significance of structural heterogeneity and strength variations in seismicity patterns. Furthermore, the study demonstrates that aftershock productivity increases nonlinearly with stress, while the Omori-Utsu parameters c and p systematically decrease with increasing stress changes. These partly unexpected findings have significant implications for future estimations of aftershock hazard.
The findings in this thesis provides valuable insights into earthquake triggering mechanisms by examining the relationship between stress changes and aftershock occurrence. The results contribute to improved understanding of earthquake behavior and can aid in the development of more accurate probabilistic-seismic hazard forecasts and risk reduction strategies.