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In this study, we analyze the forecast accuracy and profitability of buy recommendations published in five major German financial magazines for private households based on fundamental analysis. The results show a high average forecast accuracy but with a very high standard deviation, which indicates poor forecast accuracy with regard to individual stocks. The recommendation profitability slightly exceeds the performance of the MSCI World index. Considering the involved risk, which is represented by a high standard deviation, the excess returns appear to be insufficient.
As digital media infiltrate an increasingly greater proportion of our lives, concern about the possibility of various forms of technology addictions has emerged. For technology addiction, researchers have developed a variety of self-reported scales in areas such as Internet, smartphones, videogames, social network sites (SNS) or television. However, no uniform criteria or definition exists for technology addiction. Utilized dimensions of technology addiction, to measure specific outcomes, lack a conceptual standard. Therefore, linkages between technology areas dimensions have not been examined in a broader way by the research community, in order to develop a uniform technology addiction scale.
In this regard, firstly, a theoretical model was developed in order to extract common technology dimensions. Secondly, a systematic literature review in the areas of Internet, smartphone, video games and SNS was conducted in order to extract the dimensions used. To identify relevant studies, nine databases (GoogleScholar, ScienceDirect, PubMed, EmeraldInsight, Wiley, SpringerLink, ACM, iEEE and JSTOR) were searched, producing 4698 results, and 50 studies met the inclusion criteria. Thirdly, the developed theoretical model was utilized in order to determine the dimension in each of the identified scales.
Based on analysis of the dimensional distributions, the findings suggest that there are common dimensions across areas of technology such as “compulsive use” and “negative outcomes” but also differences in dimensions across areas such as “social comfort” and “mood regulation”, which are more used in the area of SNS. Moreover, new dimensions such as “cognitive absorption” or “utility and function loss" for technology addiction were extracted, which should be considered as these have not yet been researched in a broader way. In addition, no gold standard for the conceptual criteria or definition for technology addiction has been developed yet.
What Makes an Employer?
(2019)
As the policy debate on entrepreneurship increasingly centers on firm growth in terms of job creation, it is important to better understand which variables influence the first hiring decision and which ones influence the subsequent survival as an employer. Using the German Socio-economic Panel (SOEP), we analyze what role individual characteristics of entrepreneurs play in sustainable job creation. While human and social capital variables positively influence the hiring decision and the survival as an employer in the same direction, we show that none of the personality traits affect the two outcomes in the same way. Some traits are only relevant for survival as an employer but do not influence the hiring decision, other traits even unfold a revolving door effect, in the sense that employers tend to fail due to the same characteristics that positively influenced their hiring decision.
The Collatz conjecture is a number theoretical problem, which has puzzled countless researchers using myriad approaches. Presently, there are scarcely any methodologies to describe and treat the problem from the perspective of the Algebraic Theory of Automata. Such an approach is promising with respect to facilitating the comprehension of the Collatz sequence’s "mechanics". The systematic technique of a state machine is both simpler and can fully be described by the use of algebraic means.
The current gap in research forms the motivation behind the present contribution. The present authors are convinced that exploring the Collatz conjecture in an algebraic manner, relying on findings and fundamentals of Graph Theory and Automata Theory, will simplify the problem as a whole.
Open Government
(2013)
Bis heute gelingt es kaum, Begriffe rund um die Verwaltungsreform – von New Public Management bis zu den E-Modellen – schlüssig voneinander abzugrenzen. Dieses Defizit wird bei der Betrachtung des Konzepts Open Government erneut sichtbar. Der Begriff Open Government ist dabei nicht nur aus verwaltungswissenschaftlicher, sondern mit Blick auf die Instrumente der direkten Demokratie auch aus politikwissenschaftlicher Perspektive zu betrachten. Handelt es sich um einen Sammelbegriff für hauptsächlich schon Dagewesenes?
From an active labor market policy perspective, start-up subsidies for unemployed individuals are very effective in improving long-term labor market outcomes for participants. From a business perspective, however, the assessment of these public programs is less clear since they might attract individuals with low entrepreneurial abilities and produce businesses with low survival rates and little contribution to job creation, economic growth, and innovation. In this paper, we use a rich data set to compare participants of a German start-up subsidy program for unemployed individuals to a group of regular founders who started from nonunemployment and did not receive the subsidy. The data allows us to analyze their business performance up until 40 months after business formation. We find that formerly subsidized founders lag behind not only in survival and job creation, but especially also in innovation activities. The gaps in these business outcomes are relatively constant or even widening over time. Hence, we do not see any indication of catching up in the longer run. While the gap in survival can be entirely explained by initial differences in observable start-up characteristics, the gap in business development remains and seems to be the result of restricted access to capital as well as differential business strategies and dynamics. Considering these conflicting results for the assessment of the subsidy program from an ALMP and business perspective, policy makers need to carefully weigh the costs and benefits of such a strategy to find the right policy mix.
Cooperation is — despite not being predicted by game theory — a widely documented aspect of human behaviour in Prisoner’s Dilemma (PD) situations. This article presents a comparison between subjects restricted to playing pure strategies and subjects allowed to play mixed strategies in a one-shot symmetric PD laboratory experiment. Subjects interact with 10 other subjects and take their decisions all at once. Because subjects in the mixed-strategy treatment group are allowed to condition their level of cooperation more precisely on their beliefs about their counterparts’ level of cooperation, we predicted the cooperation rate in the mixed-strategy treatment group to be higher than in the pure-strategy control group. The results of our experiment reject our prediction: even after controlling for beliefs about the other subjects’ level of cooperation, we find that cooperation in the mixed-strategy group is lower than in the pure-strategy group. We also find, however, that subjects in the mixedstrategy group condition their cooperative behaviour more closely on their beliefs than in the pure-strategy group. In the mixed-strategy group, most subjects choose intermediate levels of cooperation.
Entrepreneurial persistence is demonstrated by an entrepreneur’s continued positive maintenance of entrepreneurial motivation and constantly-renewed active engagement in a new business venture despite counter forces or enticing alternatives. It is thus a crucial factor for entrepreneurs when pursuing and exploiting their business opportunities and to realize potential economic gains and benefits. Using rich data on a representative sample of German business founders, we investigate the determinants of entrepreneurial persistence. Next to observed survival we also construct a hybrid persistence measure capturing also the motivational dimension of persistence. We analyze the influence of individual-level (human capital and personality) and business-related characteristics on both measures as well as their relative importance. We find that the two indicators emphasize different aspects of persistence. For the survival indicator, the predictive power is concentrated in business characteristics and human capital, while for hybrid persistence, the dominant factors are business characteristics and personality. Finally, we show that results are heterogeneous across subgroups. In particular, formerly-unemployed founders do not differ in survival chances, but they are more likely to lack a high psychological commitment to their business ventures.
Being ignorant of key aspects of a strategic interaction can represent an advantage rather than a handicap. We study one particular context in which ignorance can be beneficial: iterated strategic interactions in which voluntary cooperation may be sustained into the final round if players voluntarily forego knowledge about the time horizon. We experimentally examine this option to remain ignorant about the time horizon in a finitely repeated two-person prisoners’ dilemma game. We confirm that pairs without horizon knowledge avoid the drop in cooperation that otherwise occurs toward the end of the game. However, this effect is superposed by cooperation declining more rapidly in pairs without horizon knowledge during the middle phase of the game, especially if players do not know that the other player also wanted to remain ignorant of the time horizon.
This dissertation consists of four self-contained papers that deal with the implications of financial market imperfections and heterogeneity. The analysis mainly relates to the class of incomplete-markets models but covers different research topics.
The first paper deals with the distributional effects of financial integration for developing countries. Based on a simple heterogeneous-agent approach, it is shown that capital owners experience large welfare losses while only workers moderately gain due to higher wages. The large welfare losses for capital owners contrast with the small average welfare gains from representative-agent economies and indicate that a strong opposition against capital market opening has to be expected.
The second paper considers the puzzling observation of capital flows from poor to rich countries and the accompanying changes in domestic economic development. Motivated by the mixed results from the literature, we employ an incomplete-markets model with different types of idiosyncratic risk and borrowing constraints. Based on different scenarios, we analyze under what conditions the presence of financial market imperfections contributes to explain the empirical findings and how the conditions may change with different model assumptions.
The third paper deals with the interplay of incomplete information and financial market imperfections in an incomplete-markets economy. In particular, it analyzes the impact of incomplete information about idiosyncratic income shocks on aggregate saving. The results show that the effect of incomplete information is not only quantitatively substantial but also qualitatively ambiguous and varies with the influence of the income risk and the borrowing constraint.
Finally, the fourth paper analyzes the influence of different types of fiscal rules on the response of key macroeconomic variables to a government spending shock. We find that a strong temporary increase in public debt contributes to stabilizing consumption and leisure in the first periods following the change in government spending, whereas a non-debt-intensive fiscal rule leads to a faster recovery of consumption, leisure, capital and output in later periods. Regarding optimal debt policy, we find that a debt-intensive fiscal rule leads to the largest aggregate welfare benefit and that the individual welfare gain is particularly high for wealth-poor agents.