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Private precaution is an important component in contemporary flood risk management and climate adaptation. However, quantitative knowledge about vulnerability reduction via private precautionary measures is scarce and their effects are hardly considered in loss modeling and risk assessments. However, this is a prerequisite to enable temporally dynamic flood damage and risk modeling, and thus the evaluation of risk management and adaptation strategies. To quantify the average reduction in vulnerability of residential buildings via private precaution empirical vulnerability data (n = 948) is used. Households with and without precautionary measures undertaken before the flood event are classified into treatment and nontreatment groups and matched. Postmatching regression is used to quantify the treatment effect. Additionally, we test state-of-the-art flood loss models regarding their capability to capture this difference in vulnerability. The estimated average treatment effect of implementing private precaution is between 11 and 15 thousand EUR per household, confirming the significant effectiveness of private precautionary measures in reducing flood vulnerability. From all tested flood loss models, the expert Bayesian network-based model BN-FLEMOps and the rule-based loss model FLEMOps perform best in capturing the difference in vulnerability due to private precaution. Thus, the use of such loss models is suggested for flood risk assessments to effectively support evaluations and decision making for adaptable flood risk management.
The importance of cryptic diversity in rotifers is well understood regarding its ecological consequences, but there remains an in depth comprehension of the underlying molecular mechanisms and forces driving speciation. Temperature has been found several times to affect species spatio-temporal distribution and organisms’ performance, but we lack information on the mechanisms that provide thermal tolerance to rotifers. High cryptic diversity was found recently in the freshwater rotifer “Brachionus calyciflorus”, showing that the complex comprises at least four species: B. calyciflorus sensu stricto (s.s.), B. fernandoi, B. dorcas, and B. elevatus. The temporal succession among species which have been observed in sympatry led to the idea that temperature might play a crucial role in species differentiation.
The central aim of this study was to unravel differences in thermal tolerance between species of the former B. calyciflorus species complex by comparing phenotypic and gene expression responses. More specifically, I used the critical maximum temperature as a proxy for inter-species differences in heat-tolerance; this was modeled as a bi-dimensional phenotypic trait taking into consideration the intention and the duration of heat stress. Significant differences on heat-tolerance between species were detected, with B. calyciflorus s.s. being able to tolerate higher temperatures than B. fernandoi.
Based on evidence of within species neutral genetic variation, I further examined adaptive genetic variability within two different mtDNA lineages of the heat tolerant B. calyciflorus s.s. to identify SNPs and genes under selection that might reflect their adaptive history. These analyses did not reveal adaptive genetic variation related to heat, however, they show putatively adaptive genetic variation which may reflect local adaptation. Functional enrichment of putatively positively selected genes revealed signals of adaptation in genes related to “lipid metabolism”, “xenobiotics biodegradation and metabolism” and “sensory system”, comprising candidate genes which can be utilized in studies on local adaptation. An absence of genetically-based differences in thermal adaptation between the two mtDNA lineages, together with our knowledge that B. calyciflorus s.s. can withstand a broad range of temperatures, led to the idea to further investigate shared transcriptomic responses to long-term exposure to high and low temperatures regimes. With this, I identified candidate genes that are involved in the response to temperature imposed stress. Lastly, I used comparative transcriptomics to examine responses to imposed heat-stress in heat-tolerant and heat-sensitive Brachionus species. I found considerably different patterns of gene expression in the two species. Most striking are patterns of expression regarding the heat shock proteins (hsps) between the two species. In the heat-tolerant, B. calyciflorus s.s., significant up-regulation of hsps at low temperatures was indicative of a stress response at the cooler end of the temperature regimes tested here. In contrast, in the heat-sensitive B. fernandoi, hsps generally exhibited up-regulation of these genes along with rising temperatures. Overall, identification of differences in expression of genes suggests suppression of protein biosynthesis to be a mechanism to increase thermal tolerance. Observed patterns in population growth are correlated with the hsp gene expression differences, indicating that this physiological stress response is indeed related to phenotypic life history performance.