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Umweltprüfung für Bauleitpläne : Stellungnahme des BDLA zum Referentenentwurf für ein EAG Bau
(2003)
Higher variability in rainfall and river discharge could be of major importance in landslide generation in the north-western Argentine Andes. Annual layered (varved) deposits of a landslide dammed lake in the Santa Maria Basin (26°S, 66°W) with an age of 30,000 14C years provide an archive of precipitation variability during this time. The comparison of these data with present-day rainfall observations tests the hypothesis that increased rainfall variability played a major role in landslide generation. A potential cause of such variability is the El Niño/ Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The causal link between ENSO and local rainfall is quantified by using a new method of nonlinear data analysis, the quantitative analysis of cross recurrence plots (CRP). This method seeks similarities in the dynamics of two different processes, such as an ocean-atmosphere oscillation and local rainfall. Our analysis reveals significant similarities in the statistics of both modern and palaeo-precipitation data. The similarities in the data suggest that an ENSO-like influence on local rainfall was present at around 30,000 14C years ago. Increased rainfall, which was inferred from a lake balance modeling in a previous study, together with ENSO-like cyclicities could help to explain the clustering of landslides at around 30,000 14C years ago.
Present erosion and sediment flux in the semi-arid intramontane Santa Maria Basin, NW Argentina are compared with conditions during a period of wetter and more variable climate at about 30,000 14C yrs ago. The results suggest that the influence of climate change on the overall erosional sediment budget is significant, mainly because of a change in the erosion regime coupled with an increase in mass movements. The most effective mechanism to increase landslide activity in this environment is a highly variable climate on inter-annual timescales. In contrast, Quaternary changes in erosional budgets due to variations in moisture regimes is small in the Santa Maria Basin. Since the magnitude of a potential increase in background erosion as well as enhanced landsliding is smaller than typical levels of uncertainty of erosional budgets for such large basins, it is not likely that climate-driven erosional unloading can influence tectonic style and rates in this semi-arid environment on time scales of several 103 to 104 years.