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Despite the fact that grade retention is now seen as controversial in many quarters, it remains common practice in numerous countries. Previous research on the effects of grade retention on student development has, however, generated ambiguous results, particularly in terms of motivational outcomes. This ambiguity has been attributed in part to a lack of high-quality studies including a longitudinal design, a suitable comparison group, and adequate statistical control of preretention differences. Based on longitudinal data of N = 3,288 German students over 3 years of secondary school, we examined differences in their academic self-concept, scholarly interests, learning motivation, and achievement motivation between those being retained in the 6th grade (n = 61) and those of the same age being promoted annually. To account for confounding variables, we applied full propensity score matching on baseline measures of the dependent variables, as well as various other covariates that have been found to be associated with the risk of retention (e.g., cognitive ability, academic performance, and family background variables). Results reveal a steep decline in students’ academic self-concept, interests, and learning motivation during the last months spent in the original class, just before retention. For those measures that were available, negative effects were still partly significant after 1 year, but had diminished 2 years after grade retention. Contrary to predictions suggested by the big-fish-little-pond effect, we found no positive effects of retention on students’ academic self-concept.
The present study examines how historical changes in the U.S. socioeconomic environment in the 20th century may have affected core assumptions of the "American Dream." Specifically, the authors examined whether such changes modulated the extent to which adolescents' intelligence (IQ), their grade point average (GPA), and their parents' socioeconomic status (SES) could predict key life outcomes in adulthood about 20 years later. The data stemmed from two representative U.S. birth cohorts of 15- and 16-year-olds who were born in the early 1960s (N = 3,040) and 1980s (N = 3,524) and who participated in the National Longitudinal Surveys of Youth (NLSY). Cohort differences were analyzed with respect to differences in average relations by means of multiple and logistic regression and for specific points in each outcome distribution by means of quantile regressions. In both cohorts, IQ, GPA, and parental SES predicted important educational, occupational, and health-related life-outcomes about 20 years later. Across historical time, the predictive utility of adolescent IQ and parental SES remained stable for the most part. Yet, the combined effects of social-ecological and socioeconomic changes may have increased the predictive utility (that is, the regression weights) of adolescent GPA for educational, occupational, and health outcomes over time for individuals who were born in the 1980s. Theoretical implications concerning adult development, aging, and late life inequality are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record.